Saturday December 10 2022 Forecast (8:26AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 10-14)

You’ve heard it over and over now – blocking blocking blocking. So I won’t go on in detail this update. High pressure from Greenland extending into eastern Canada. Low pressure taking shape to its south in the Atlantic. There’s the basic set-up. Today we become blanketed across the area with a layer of stratus clouds from the ocean – in fact much of the region is already covered by it as I write this, and some ocean-effect snow showers are ongoing from the MA South Shore to the South Coast region. I was a bit reluctant to go for these initially, but the moisture is there, and they are there, so look for these occasionally today into this evening, and some of them may result in a small accumulation, up to 1 inch or so, favoring the colder surfaces. The lower clouds will likely remain in place through Sunday, although the ocean-effect snow shower activity will diminish. However, as this is going on, a small low pressure area in the process of running into blocking high pressure will be moving into our area from the west. It will have enough moisture with it when it arrives to produce a shield of precipitation – mainly in the form of snow but mix/rain over Cape Cod and the immediate South Coast – on Sunday evening. As the dry air wins the battle, the area of precipitation will shrink, break up, and eventually be pushed out to the southeast, but not before a minor snowfall accumulation occurs, especially from the Monadnocks of NH through central MA and into eastern CT and northwestern RI, where up to 2 inches may occur. Further east, only coatings to locally 1 inch of snow is expected. With recent mild weather, the ground is still warm enough so this accumulated snow will not really hang around for long, and it will likely vanish as dry weather returns to the region on Monday. From the Monday to Wednesday period of next week, as the block remains in place, the surface features will be high pressure to our northwest and a broad low pressure circulation over the ocean to the eastern of New England. We stay dry for the most part, though a disturbance passing by around Tuesday may cause a few snow showers, and we see an increase in wind and temperatures that will be seasonably chilly – even a touch below normal by midweek.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Ocean-effect snow showers MA South Shore to South Coast including RI – minor accumulations of generally under 1 inch expected. Highs 34-41. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Occasional snow showers continue MA South Shore to South Coast, and RI, and maybe as far north as immediate Boston area, again with minor accumulation possible. Lows 27-34. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. A few snow showers may be around the South Shore of MA especially morning. Chance of snow by late afternoon favoring central MA, southwestern NH, and snow or rain in eastern CT and RI. Highs 33-40. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow except rain/mix/snow South Coast. Potential snow accumulation less than 1 inch except 1-2 inches interior higher elevations from southwestern NH through central MA to northwestern RI. Lows 26-33. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a brief passing snow shower. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a brief passing snow shower. Lows 17-24. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 15-19)

Blocking continues. Expecting high pressure stretching across eastern Canada and a storm track to our south in general, but during this period I’m only expecting to have to watch one main system. Adjusting the window slightly to December 16 into the December 17-18 weekend. That doesn’t mean a 3-day storm, necessarily, it just means we have 3 days as the window to watch for potential impact from that passing low pressure area. More precise timing, precipitation types/locations, and overall impact can be focused on as the event gets closer. Based on the current expected time window I’d expect dry and seasonably chilly weather to be back with us later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 20-24)

I’m basically leaving this unchanged from yesterday’s update. Blocking continues, but large scale pattern configuration shifts a little with high pressure’s core in Canada shifting back toward Greenland as another high pressure area builds through the Gulf of Alaska into western Canada. The troughiness between that opens the door for additional cold weather, perhaps some arctic air, coming out of Canada into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, but mostly minor weather systems – i.e., no big storms. But again that is far out there and a lot of monitoring and fine-tuning (as I often say) will be needed as we head down the home stretch toward Christmas…

56 thoughts on “Saturday December 10 2022 Forecast (8:26AM)”

    1. “I’m as dark as December, I’m as cold as the man in the moon.” -Sting.

      This type of day always reminds me of that Sting song “The Hounds Of Winter” which is the opening track on a fabulous album called “Mercury Falling”.

  4. Thank you, TK.

    As I mentioned several days ago, a nice set-up is emerging for an extended period of cold and some snow across Northwestern Europe. Dublin, Ireland had a taste of snow (fairly rare for it to snow there, though it certainly does happen from time to time) last night. https://twitter.com/edelfaherty/status/1600983585372049408

    This may turn out to be the coldest December in Northwestern Europe in quite a number of years. The pattern looks quite stable over the coming 10 to 14 days. Not extreme cold, but certainly cold enough in places to support snow.

    1. Lots of cold in lots of places as we head down the home stretch of 2022.

      Winter wouldn’t end in the Southern Hemisphere!

  5. Thanks TK.

    White Christmas here we come? 🙂

    Since Boston averages 9.1” of snow in December, one would think that the odds of snow on Christmas Day should be a lot more than 25%. Alack and alas it doesn’t though.

    1. With the month at over 3 weeks old by 12-25, the snowfall measurement taken at an airport surrounded by water that can be as warm as 50 or even more at month’s beginning and in the mid 40s by 12-25, plus taking into account the variety of patterns we can experience, a monthly average of just under 10 inches being reduced a little further through only 25 days should yield exactly the percentage chance of 1 inch or greater of snow on the ground there at 7 a.m. on December 25 that we have. 🙂

  6. Thanks, TK!

    We have the first flakes of the season here (other than me!) 🙂

    Portugal and Morocco is the first game from the World Cup. Kickoff is in 13 minutes.

    Army-Navy is today. That game is coming to Foxborough in 2023 for the first time.

  7. Based on latest radar, already good ocean effect snows for interior South Coast MA. How to get that into Boston though?

    1. As mentioned above, Philip, I can verify your statement. We have a nice, steady light snow here now!

  9. Good morning and thank You TK.
    Still only 32 here . just no snow.
    I was out all morning. I thought I saw exactly 2 flakes, but who knows what I saw.

    Canadian had an interesting solution for the next system. We shall see what the 12z looks like

  10. The wild inconsistency of the GFS rolls on (as expected). At least the 12z op run finally corrected (somewhat) for its previous over strengthening and too-far-west position of an Atlantic low and allows the late-week system to actually exist again. Places it where I feel is too far north, but no surprise. It will have to go through another adjustment phase.

    Again I don’t really trust that model at all until I have CONFIRMATION of not only its correction but proof that its performance is back up to AT LEAST that of the previous version. You gonna drive your car when you get it back from the mechanic and the problem is still there? I think not. 😉

  11. Radar now shows snow expanded to include the South Coast “coastline” as well.

    Still no northward progress at all.

  14. Still a week away and there is a lot to yet consider and a lot of time for trends in other directions, but I continue to like the idea of a low pressure system that travels just south of New England in that window of time I mentioned above in today’s update.

    Can envision an elongated system, not too powerful a center and a rain/mix beginning that trends to mix/snow as the atmosphere turns colder.

    1. As I said above, White Christmas here we come! 🙂

      Assuming it doesn’t melt away by midnight 12/25. It wouldn’t be the first time, nor the last. 😉

      1. Well, again, that assumes we see enough snow from that system. It’s no guarantee as of December 10.

        But let me put it this way, the pattern gets “better” as we move through the month.

    2. There has been snow flying here Tk for awhile now & at times coming down pretty hard ( nothing sticking )

      1. Ground is still pretty warm to really hold onto anything unless it’s nighttime, and that may happen for a bit this evening, but it won’t hang around long. Just enough for the feel of the season. 🙂

        I always find it amusing when people still freak out over snow that’s mood snow, no impact, just in the air. It’s no different than rain, but they stress out anyway. 😉

        1. I could care less as I’d rather be in shorts & it’s 90 , coming down very hard now with big flakes .

          1. 12Z Euro inside as well

            https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022121012&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

            then jumps

            https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022121012&fh=162&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

            https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022121012&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

            Euro 10:1 snow, includes this weekend and the next system as well

            https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022121012&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

            1. That track isn’t inside. It’s a pivot track that stays south of here. That’s pretty much how I think it’s going to go too, just maybe a little weaker than that depiction. 🙂

              1. Pivot track? NEVER heard of that in my entire life. Can you explain? Does it really pivot or redevelop Eastward?

              1. As much as I love snow on the ground for Christmas, if there is none, it takes absolutely nothing away from my enjoyment of the holiday. 🙂

  16. All snowlivers on the blog come down my way tomorrow night. The latest run if the HRRR and NAM give my area a decent snowfall.

  17. Next GFS (FWIW) will have a track a bit further south than the previous.

    If it’s split enough with the 2 centers, the old primary may actually have a shot to deliver more snow than the initial thrust of moisture with the “newer” low.

    Focus on Dec 17 for that.

  18. This is a very good and important example of just how broken the GFS is right now..

    This is a real problem and is highly relevant as we head toward winter so I am hoping that this problem is already being addressed.

    The first link is the GFS forecast for 00Z December 25th from the 12Z operational run.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/h2tE6kAdCvnpidMG8

    The second link is the GFS forecast for the exact same time / date from the 18Z operational run.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/cmZcka7scq2C2Xgt6

    Same model, same forecast time, forecast runs 6 hours apart. This is about as bad as I have ever seen it.

    The advice remains the same: avoid the GFS until further notice especially beyond 60 or 84 hours.

  19. Surprised with how long this system hung out & is still here . All the yards are all white & cars have some snow on them , saw a salter out in pembroke as well . My son just turned on all of his Xmas air- blowns to get the snow off of them .

    1. It’s just ocean effect snow and it is not lasting longer than expected.

      I had it in the forecast today for today and this evening, including accumulation of up to an inch.

  21. The CPC through Christmas Eve (12/24) has the core of the cold from the Mississippi westward through the Great Plains all the way to the west coast while our area is near to just slightly below normal. At least that’s my interpretation, such as it is.

    1. Yes, that is correct.

      And it’s not very often that you see NO above normal temps in the forecast at all for the entire Lower 48 for both 6-10 and 8-14. We’re starting to see more and more of that lately – a trend that will continue in my opinion.

  22. It has that snow sky outside today where I am. Now just sitting back waiting for the snow this afternoon.

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