Sunday December 11 2022 Forecast (8:51AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Quick Sunday update today! A small low pressure area advancing eastward runs into a big blocking high and expends the last of its moisture over our area later today and tonight, resulting in a minor snowfall for most areas, before the system redevelops to the south and scoots eastward, to become part of a larger low pressure circulation south of blocking high pressure. Surface high pressure will control Monday through Thursday with dry weather and near to below normal temperatures.

TODAY: Cloudy. A few snow showers may be around the South Shore to South Coast of MA especially morning. Chance of snow by late afternoon favoring central MA, southwestern NH, and snow or rain in eastern CT and RI. Highs 33-40. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow except rain/mix/snow South Coast. Potential snow accumulation mostly less than 1 inch except 1-2 inches interior higher elevations from southwestern NH through central MA to northwestern RI, and up to around 3 inches possible in isolated locations. Lows 26-33. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a brief passing snow shower. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a brief passing snow shower. Lows 17-24. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 16-20)

Blocking continues. High pressure to our north, one storm system to track heading toward the Great Lakes but doing more of a pivot track as the energy elongates and redevelops further east. Leaning toward the axis of low pressure staying just south of New England with precipitation impact window December 16 into the weekend. Initial leaning is for a rain/mix beginning and more of a snow or snow shower ending to the system. However, a lot of fine-tuning will be needed so it’s far too early to even think about locking into anything. Cold, dry weather later in the period as high pressure regains control.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 21-25)

Blocking pattern continues but shifts a bit with high pressure nudging eastward from eastern Canada to Greenland and another high building into western Canada. This opens the door for more potential cold from the Midwest and Great Lakes to Northeast. Sometimes when this type of a shift takes place you get a disturbance running through the Great Lakes or somewhere in that vicinity, a brief milder interlude then a shot of cold. It’s too early to know how it plays out for sure but that’s one possibility as we head toward Christmas.

119 thoughts on “Sunday December 11 2022 Forecast (8:51AM)”

    1. Oh boy to I remember that one. Crap, it was a mix of snow and rain here for hour and hours and hours before it finally switched over to snow. We got right around a foot here in JP, while I “think” Logan ended up with only 9 inches. Places to the West got up to 30 inches or more.

      My Brother in Pascoag, RI got 30 inches of snow.

      I was working in Canton at the time, TK knows where, and we got about a foot there perhaps a tad more. I went to do some
      lunch time Christmas Shopping at the South Shore Mall, perhaps 8-10 miles to the S&E of the office. ZERO snow there or very very little.

      It was quite a gradient to say the least.

    2. Thanks TK. I had to think about this one from my “memory banks”. If I recall correctly, Logan eventually received like 9 inches of snow or thereabouts but Quincy received little or no snow. My dentist was in North Quincy/Wollaston at the time and I literally went from several inches of snow in Dorchester to no-snow as soon as I drove over the Neponset bridge. I almost cancelled my appointment. 🙂

    2. If this is truly accurate????, I think this is one of the coolest things I have seen. Love it! I wonder how they get a state-wide average of snowfall? Do they just take all of the NWS reporting stations? Hand picked stations, including general public? to do this accurately is no easy task. Interesting….

      1. It’s accurate for how they are ranking it – state averages.
        But it’s really hard to gauge based on that because the impacts can vary so widely across a state, even a relatively small state.

        1. For sure. But I never thought of our state’s ranking before.
          Not sure I would have imagined we ranked that high.

          1. I wonder if Worcester’s average (73”) is factored in? I bet that’s the highest total of all locations.

    1. JPD and I will be lucky to see 4-5 “flakes”! Lol. 😀

      Enjoy Jimmy! I’m sure we in eastern/coastal sections will get ours eventually before the month ends. 🙂

    1. I must be thinking about another serious ice storm in that area. This one doesn’t ring a bell.

      Anyway, thanks for sharing Jimmy! 🙂

      Wasn’t there another one sometime back in the 1990s?

    2. Ah – memories .

      This was the start of 12 days with no power in Lunenburg (Unitil). There were at least two big snow storms and some very cold temperatures during that period. With our wood stove we made it with no damage to our plumbing. By the end, it was in the 40’s in our upstairs bedrooms.

      There is one scene that I will never forget, probably the low point for me. My wife and two young boys went to a relative’s house with power in Westminster for showers and so on. I was at home feeding the fire. I was listening to the news on a hand-cranked radio. They were interviewing the managers of the Wachusett Mountain Ski Area. The managers were thanking National Grid for getting all power restored to the mountain. It was hard not to scream at the radio at that point – “The top of the mountain has power and we have no idea when we will at our house!!”

  9. TK, you have mentioned a pivot track a couple of times now.
    I have attempted to look it up and could not find anything.
    Is there a meteorological definition?

    From what I can tell, it is a system that is forced to redevelop
    Eastward as if to pivot forward or something along those lines.

    Curious.

    Many thanks

    1. Not really a definition. It’s a description.

      Let me see if I can paint a picture with words…

      Low #1 tracks northeast toward the Great Lakes.
      Low #1 runs into blocking high pressure in eastern Canada.
      Low #1’s center starts to elongate – stretch eastward – to go underneath the high at a lower latitude.
      Low #2 initiates near or off the coast, south of New England.
      Low #1 becomes quasi-stationary in the Great Lakes region.
      Low #2 lifts east northeast just south of New England and throws its precipitation shield in here (doesn’t matter what p-type).
      Low #1, in response to the shifting upper pattern with low #1, starts to move east southeast while Low #2 still continues east northeast, making the axis between the two lows pivot.
      Low #2 moves away.
      Low #1 moves east southeast, passing south of New England, and brings a second batch of precipitation with the help of the original upper level low.

  10. Thanks TK !

    Snow grains this morning.

    Yesterday, it snowed off and on for large parts of the day.

    After dark, a couple miles from the ocean, the ground whitened and I saw shady areas with some snow patches here and there.

    It feels even colder this morning.

  11. TK, interested to know how the process works. Maybe you’ve answered this in the past but…

    When “they” introduce a model “upgrade” what’s that process? Like, do they seek improvement proposal commentary from the scientific community beforehand or do they just get under the hood with the programming wrenches and screwdrivers and then publish? Or is it all strictly proprietary and everyone just has to eat their peas and accept it.

    Thanks

    2. I’m not actually sure what the process is at this point in time.

      Perhaps WxW can speak to this a bit more?
      I’m not involved in any way whatsoever in the politics of NOAA/NWS. In fact, I’m barely even involved with meteorology these days outside of this blog and a couple social media pages I admin. I kind of like it this way. 🙂

  12. Today’s slight shift further N & W with the track of the redeveloped low late next week is really due to the models collectively having a difficult time resolving the results of the blocking. This is not unusual, even without factoring in the GFS’s craptacular status (thanks Bart Simpson!).

    I read on the NWS discussion earlier this morning about the “windshield wiper effect” with the guidance. They recognize it too, as they should, and I agree with them 100%. We’re not done seeing this and won’t be for a few to even several days.

    Just part of the meteorological process with regard to modeling. I think we’re all familiar with this concept now. 🙂

      1. Hopefully 48. 60 would be a stretch. I don’t think we’ll have to go to 36 or under to really know. Short range guidance is doing Ok right now. 🙂

  13. After a quick review of the 12z short range basically the 3km NAM shows what scenario today’s / tonight’s system does.

    It’s a classic depiction of what I’ve described about the low running into blocking high pressure, drying up, and upper energy shifting south and southeast for a new system offshore (that becomes part of the bigger low to the east as noted above).

    I believe the ECMWF several days ago showed this solution rather nicely and further supports, at least based on this scenario, that this medium range model is far more reliable than it’s American counterpart.

    Update on communication: I never heard back from the contact at NCEP. Not even a standardized email reply. It’s been a week – that was adequate time to give them to answer before I can officially declare that I’m disappointed with their lack of reply.

    I’m off on an extended walk around my pond. Later today I am acquiring my Christmas tree (mom’s artificial tree and all the other countless decorations are done and have been for a several days now, even after a 1-week covid delay). The real tree I’m getting today is also delayed by 1 week, but hey, I’m just happy to do this!

    Cheers!

    1. People decorate for Christmas too early these days anyway. You’re just in time by starting your decorating now in my book. Good luck getting your tree! 🙂

      Glad to know you’re all better now. I assume your son is as well? 🙂

      1. Normally, I do it all between Thanksgiving and November 30. I did not like starting on December 3 (the day I went covid negative). But I’m just glad to have been able to do it.

        Next year, it will all be done between November 24 and 30.

        1. the time to start decorating for Christmas is right after thanksgiving, Dad, my brothers and myself would start decorating the house on black Friday and go through the weekend so when my Mom got back from shopping with my Grandmother, she would come home to lighted house.

  14. Thanks TK! We’ve got a soaking rain here in southern CA today, and the Sierras are being plastered with feet of snow. We love to see it!

    RE: Model upgrades… honestly, I don’t know enough about the process to go into detail on it. However, that in and of itself may be telling. The fact is that “the field” (operational meteorologists) do not get a lot of input on these decisions. Which, perhaps, is fair – you wouldn’t see the NCEP modeling community offering feedback on a local WFO’s 7 day forecast. Likewise, most field level folks don’t have an understanding of the incredibly complex code that goes into these models. As always, the new version was run in “parallel” alongside the old version for some time. Importantly, however, that is more so just to assess its technical stability as opposed to its meteorological accuracy. Once a new version gets to that stage, there’s really no pulling it back. The lack of a reply to you TK is, frankly, disappointing but not surprising.

    FWIW, the modeling process in the US is definitely more transparent than overseas, which is partly why we give it more attention. In a lot of overseas cases, it is, as retrac put it, proprietary, and we’re just eating their peas. But in many cases, they’re good peas. I think part of the reason for that is that internationally, there is a greater emphasis on research meteorology and less on the operations side, which is evident in the fact that even though we sing the praises of models like the ECMWF and the Canadian suite, the state of operational forecasting in Canada and many European and other foreign countries is *dreadful*.

    All in all, it’s not a great system. And it’s a problem that exists throughout the entire field: the research and operational communities operate very independently of each other. Yet they each rely on the products and services of the other. How to address that is certainly well beyond me…

    1. This is a very helpful and informative reply. Thank you my friend. 🙂

      It’s important to bring up and highlight these issues. It would be nice if it was all sunshine and roses, but that is simply not the case. This is the reality. And I’m glad we can discuss such things here and have people such as yourself to chime in. Thanks again!

  18. Grass is coated up with snow. After initial burst of snow it is coming down light. I hope I get lucky later on.
    Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    Tonight’s storm is a tough one. We’ll all see accumulation but I expected a narrow/localized band of very heavy snow and can’t even rule out some thundersnow. A very dynamic system that will have a few surprises for us I’m sure.

  19. Thanks TK.

    Cloudy, cold, and 31F here in Coventry CT and it looks, feels, and smells like snow out there! We have had a few flakes on and off but nothing steady yet.

    The HRRR and NAM continue to advertise the possibility of up to 6″ of snow here and I think it may get wild for a bit tonight given the dynamics of this system. Ryan Hanrahan mentioned the possibility of some thundersnow as JJ posted above. He also said there could be some huge variations in snow totals over a short distance. This one should be interesting to track!

      1. I dont think we will with this one. Some of the models are actually showing the jackpot in the hilltowns in my area.

        I also fortunately dont get “shadowed” much living in a higher elevation in Tolland County, A few years ago we actually had a private “upslope” snowstorm in Tolland County that dropped 6″ while there was nothing in Hartford. The CT River Valley (Hartford to Springfield to Greenfield) however frequently gets shadowed during Nor’easters when strong east winds downslope into the valley.

  24. Re: NWS snow map.
    I agree with it. They and I are the same with regard to the WHW forecast area. The areas further west with the heavier amounts (3+) I can see because they are going to catch the max combination of initial burst, some topography help, and the beginning of the renewed snow area from the reorganizing low to the south before it all gets pushed off to the south and southeast.

    1. Hah I posted this right before their new snow map came out and trimmed the amounts back a tiny, tiny bit, but essentially unchanged. 🙂

  30. Starting to see the dry air eating away from the north trend starting on radar. From here on the steadiest will be I-90 belt southward.

  31. The snow area looks definitely much more impressive relatively speaking.

    TK – Does the system actually have more “oomph!” than originally expected? 🙂

  33. Driving around here and in as far as Belmont is slippery. I was worried about tomorrow mornings commute. If this thing behaves, hopefully the commute will be fine. It started here just after noon so was early so maybe will end early.

  34. Snow really coming down here now in Coventry CT with some bigger flakes mixing in. Approaching 2″ of snow. Plow has been by once already which is a good thing as I slid about 100 feet past the driveway when I returned home earlier 🙂

    Just took this picture out the back deck…

    https://imgur.com/7hOIp8M

    1. Nice Mark. More than we have but son in RI seems to have about the same amount that you have. A fair number of accidents. Again from here east.

      From our deck. Olaf and frosty say hi. I love that you have back deck decorations

      https://imgur.com/a/NfuLHua

      1. Haha. I’m trying to remember my RadarScope pw so I can upload it to his phone. I have two that are fascinated by weather. Oldest granddaughter and this guy. He just came in from playing outside.

  39. There were rain showers in Brant Rock, non-accumulating wet snow flakes in my neighborhood. Further west on 139, some snow adhering to car tops and grassy areas, by the time I got past Boston Bowl in eastern Hanover, it was a thicker coating on everything.

  42. Approaching 7″ at my mother’s house in Amsterdam NY. The Albany area and portions of the Berkshires seem to be overachieving with this one. Some heavier radar echoes have been parked over these areas for hours.

    Some 6″ reports now in NW CT as well.

  43. Savoy, MA now reporting 8″ and Lee and Lenox reporting 7″ each.

    Still snowing hard in these locations. It is likely we are going to be seeing some double digit snow totals with this system. Overachiever in some areas for sure.

    1. I was just about to say your area and Vicki’s look to be filling in nicely right now with heavier snow.

      Some very heavy snow right now with that band just west of PVD as well. Wouldnt be surprised if they are experiencing some thunder and snow rates in excess of 2″/hr

      1. I am so tempted to txt my son in lincoln RI but He heads to work early so don’t want to wake him

        Heading out to measure again now

    1. That’s actually the Euro “control” run not an ensemble mean. But hey, you never know! Pattern could support something like this in the long range with plenty of cold air nearby and blocking in place.

  49. It appears that is the inverted trough that has set up with a band of heavy snow from roughly Worcester to Providence to Warwick to Newport. Even extending into Fall River.

    I think there are going to be some very inflated totals across eastern RI within this band.

  50. Snow has been mostly light here the past few hours but has briefly picked up again. Will go out again to measure after this latest burst.

        1. I will take it. Exceeded my expectations for sure. Now let’s hope it all doesnt get washed away in the late week storm.

          1. I agree with every word. It was fun. Kids had a blast playing in it and nana loved sitting in the deck and watching. Glad you got a good whopping down your way also. And south central too.

  52. Forecast for a coating to 3 inches across the WHW area.
    Observations: Coating to 3.5 inches. Happy with forecast.

    Higher amounts, as expected, were west of the WHW forecast region.

    Saw a lot of local commentary on social media about how the forecasters blew it. Huh? No, we did not “blow it”. Everybody was right. And a 1/2 inch forecast error is acceptable.

    Short range guidance did well. There was no real reason to doubt it this time. Not sure what they were looking at, but hey, at least we know da facts! 😉

    Have a good night. 🙂

  53. “The snow got here later than it typically does but when it arrived we got more than expected.” -local news anchor.

    HUH?? What does that even mean?

    #1: It got here right on time.
    #2: It was not more than expected, with the exception of a couple isolated locations.

    By the way, my total here in Woburn: 0.8 inch.

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