The Week Ahead

73 Comments

8:44PM

The warm summer days of March are a memory. 😉

It’s back to reality for the week ahead. High pressure builds in Monday through Tuesday with dry, breezy, and chilly weather. A warm front will approach on Wednesday bringing clouds. Low pressure crossing the region Thursday will bring some unsettled weather. At this time it looks like it will be mild enough for rain, but some mixed precipitation cannot be completely ruled out at this point. This system will be beyond the region by the end of the week which will turn dry and seasonable.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy through midnight. Clearing overnight. Low 35-40. Wind NE under 10 MPH shifting to NW and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 20-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill in the teens.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 48.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain/mix. Low 32. High 43.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 50.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 51.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 56.

73 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks TK! 🙂

    According to Barry’s evening blog, March 2012 is the warmest on record.

    1. 2012
    2. 1946
    3. 1945

    The summers of 1945 and 1946 were cooler than average.

  2. Thanks TK.
    I am all for a cooler than average summer as long as we have a lot of sunny days.
    FA forecast hot and dry for summer. I am hoping they are wrong.

    2. i want those 85+ days and sunny weather with the afternoon thunderstorms. I want a good beach and bike year to make up for the lousy ski season.

  3. TK, I understand that you never discount accumulating snow in April but could “April 2012” be that one exception?

  4. Here is a post on WBZ Weathers FB Page from one of the trolls, He can’t hide on facebook 🙂 The other troll Anthony finally got a job as a landscaper.

    Does “Peter the Troll” posts have anything to it? April 2nd is less than a week away and I can see anything like this scenario he is painting.

    Still like ecmwf for significant coastal April 2nd, Rain/Snow/wind, coastal flooding….gfs appears to weak = bias…;)
    10 minutes ago

    Raw GFC shows Boston 6″ of snow next week, big blocking , neg Nao, retrograding storm…
    8 minutes ago · Like

  5. 6z GFS does show that storm again for 4/4 which has been on again off again for a couple days now…but thats all I can see for anything of significance

  6. Larry Cosgrove is predicting warmer temps in the first nine days of April. Any believers out there?

    Personally, I’m looking forward to the milder half of spring. It’s nice to see the daffodils and forsythia in bloom. The chill of this week will preserve them. The crocuses, sadly, “melted” in the heat of last week. They do so remind me of Easter eggs; and then they open when the sunshines. Nice.

    1. Unfortuneatly, instead of preserving anything, the cold will severely kill everything in its path. This isnt a couple of hours at 29 degrees we’re going to see. This is a prolonged hard freeze coming up. Any early blooming perenials such as Rhodadenderian, creeping phlox, lilac, etc, will be in danger of not blooming at all. Certain species of hydrangia will also take a big hit. Blossoms on almond trees, bradford pare, ornamental plum, etc will not come back. Leaves will come back, and late spring blooming plants will be fine, but early bloomers could be toast. The only thing that could mitigate the damage a little is a brisker wind and the fact that the air is so dry. But even then, the cold will be so extreme for tender vegetation that the water in the plant cells themselves will freeze and do damage even with out a lot of surface frost forming.

      1. Well put brad, I do agree. Sounds like you know your stuff. That’s good. Have a nice day. I just had to dig up a dead u. Not even in the ground, and it was Stubon coming up.

        2. I got some of that garden/row fabric and covered up hydrangia’s, sedum, lilly’s, cats mint, salvia’s, and wrapped up the hydrangias. The david garden phlox, cone flowers, etc are just peeking up, so i covered them with mulch that was left. We’ll see it it works. My neighbor thought i was nuts, but if my early bloomers come back out and the perenials that have peaked out dont get badly burned, the effort was worth it. The rhodadendrans will fry, but my wife hates them anyway. I was gonna pull then out and replace them with spirea anyway.

          I figure this whole week has a chance for frost, so i’m not counting anything out in terms of cold killing freezes for at least another 2 weeks. Generaly by tax day the real cold is gone and we just have lighter 29+ degree frosts, but this year, anything is possible. I live in Northbridge and the boston forecast really doesnt apply out here for the most part.

      2. Agreed. It may be the earliest and shortest bloom ever for certain blossoms. This is where nature’s extremes do have a major impact on … nature. In addition, I’ve observed a much earlier than usual nesting pattern: In particular, robins, pigeons, sparrows, and other city birds. In my neighborhood I saw 2 nesting birds this past weekend: 1. a mother pigeon sitting on two eggs – she found a flower pot with dirt in it on a fire escape and decided to nest there (typical of pigeons; laziest nesters out there). 2. a mother robin in a small birch tree in what looks like a 2nd or 3rd hand nest, again she’s sitting on two eggs from what I could tell. I am concerned about the eggs’ viability in mid 20s weather. I think they’ll be fine, because the mother will make sure she keeps the eggs warm, but I’m not 100% certain.

  7. There was a comment yesterday from Philip that sparked my interest in the summer of 1816, which I was not aware of, where we had snow here well into the summer and much lower than ave. temps not only here but all across the world…

      2. HA! Post that on BZ’, that’ll get the troll going!
        For the record, I dont foresee that! Even summer 2009 I dont see. 🙂

    2. Believed to be caused by a combination of very low solar activity and several major volcanic eruptions, the earth went into a pseudo volcanic winter. There were many consequences across the world, from floods to famine, extreme cold and wild temperature swings especially in the northeast US. This may have led to the discovery of the fertile grounds of the midwest and plains as farmers who once grew their crops here in New England moved in search of warmer weather. Although there was widespread famine and disease, there were also great discoveries, from advances in agriculture to the arts. Mary Shelley’s Freikenstein and Lord Byron’s works that later led to the creation of Dracula were believed to have been inspired by the dismal weather. Modern day fertilizers were also believed to be developed due to the desperation to grow crops. I find it fascinating how weather can and has shaped our history. I can now blame weather for the Twilight series! 😆

  8. going to cover up my flower garden this afternoon with the black tarp. and the bushes that have leaves already on them.
    looking at 20s for lows for the next few days with tuesday not reaching 40 in many areas. and windy conditions. On wednesday a few rain showers could develope and i would not be surprised to see sleet or snow mixed in
    after thursday it will warm up a bit into the 50s with lows in the 30s I do not see any signs of warming as the jet stream bulges south of the area for a while.

  9. I would not rule out snow in early April for elevated areas of SNE but I think it is unlikely.
    Some of my dafadils have come out and even some of the roots of my bleeding heart have popped as well as the buds for the lilac bush. I hope there won’t be too much damage to them.

    1. Jimmy everyone tells me the bleeding hearts are resistant – I listened and was sorry several years ago as I lost all of mine to a frost. My yard looks like it is inhabited by ghosts when there is a frost coming. I did learn that if frost does hurt plants/shrubs that you should water them first thing in the morning.

      My daffodils are already past. I have a lot of peonies that I am really worried about as well as my hydrangeas. I pretty much have stuff popping up all over.

  10. Thanks Vicki because I heard the same thing you did about the bleeding heart that they are resistent. The bleeding heart is a beautiful when it is in full bloom.

  11. Typical March day today! Windy and cold. After last week’s unusual warmth, it took a little getting used to, especially yesterday which was raw and damp. Kind of a wasted day weather-wise, ‘though – would have been nice to see much more rain. I don’t mind if the weather doesn’t get that warm for a few weeks, yet – then when it does get really warm, we can enjoy the feel of spring. I am seeing more plants blossoming – I just hope the frost and hard freeze doesn’t do much damage.

      1. The general idea of at least something has been there for some time now, just don’t know what exactly, lol

        1. works for me – fun to watch no matter what and not a whole lot different from the only amusement we have had this entire, very sad winter 😥

          1. I for one enjoyed this winter 🙂
            Winter could go away as far as I’m concerned and never return.

            1. I’m somewhere in the middle. Would love an early winter’s worth of snow between Thanksgiving and mid January. If we haven’t had the snow by that time then I’m ready for spring.

              1. Actually, winter is ok, I just want it December and January, then it can get warm again. I should just move to Phoenix. I’d rather have 110 than 32 any day.

  13. I hope its a long time before we see a winter like this past one. It was big DUD!
    It would be something to have a snowstorm in October and one in April and very little in between.

    2. I know this is a request that’s ridiculous and hasn’t happened much at all…but I wish the season’s could feature at least a majority of the weather that actually matches the season. I know those who like snow had an unenjoyable last several months and I’m starting to think my exasperation is about to start now. Watch, it will be colder the next several weeks to 2 months than its been the last five. That would frustrate me to no end. 🙂

  14. It’s fun to watch an arctic airmass move in on a sunny, late March day with a 50 degree sun angle. It looks like its warm out with all the bright sun, then you hit the door and whamo !

    1. Maybe not a lot of warmth until May. If the NAO doesnt go positive in the next week to 10 days, we may be in for 4-5 weeks of coolish weather. I think April is gonna be cool. But, it usually is, so I guess its no different than the norm around here. Seems like the last few years we get a little spring in May and some in late June, summer for 6 weeks then it’s gone. Last year we had 9-10 days of raw, rainy weather in jne, summer from July 4th-August 1st, then August was fairly cool. Stinks for us summer lovers.

    2. I’m not sure about this balance stuff occuring so fast. You could make an aurgument that the mild, snowless winter WAS the balance for last winters snow.

  16. One thing I do know is that 50 degrees in late March is much different than 50 degrees in Jan, that sun feels nice. 🙂

  17. Ocean temps r ranging from 45 degrees off Portsmouth nh to 55 degrees south of RI, I think this is average for 3rd week of April 🙂

  18. CPC updated the 6-10 day for below normal temps and below normal precip. 8-14 day shows above normal temps, below normal precip.
    I’m just an amatuer, but I really dont see how we have below normal precip in the long term (like 3+ months) and cooler than normal weather over the long haul.

  19. Brad welcome to the blog since I have not seen you post until recently. Below normal temps from the CPC we have not seen a lot of in for a while.

  20. It appears we will be 32 or lower from around midnight tonight to around 10am Tuesday morning, tommorrow nights lows will be 30-35 degrees.

    1. It’s going to be below 30 almost everywhere tonight. Upper 10s to upper 20s remote suburbs to coast. Do you still doubt my 22 early guess from several days ago? 😀

      1. I don’t think Boston gets to 22 degrees more like 24-25 but yes this one I underestimated but it will only be 1 night of a hard freeze which is good 🙂

  21. News is reporting a brush fire in Douglas with houses threatened. I am so afraid we will see more of this and the wind today is a bad combination. I saw a lot of people burning over the weekend and was surprised that it is being allowed.

    1. They just reported that the fire is under control and homes are no longer in any danger – thank goodness!

  22. Hey everyone…check out Bob’s posting over on Melissa’s blog. It involves the long range and mentions a cool, very dry summer and a possibly snowy 2012-13 winter! He believes the NAO goes negative for months to come, if I understand correctly.

    I really doubt that he is a troll. Bob and David White have very interesting discussions back-and-forth with each other. It would be great if one or both would start posting over here.

    TK, I would be curious as to your thoughts on Bob’s post.

    1. I will check out the BZ Blog at mid evening. I’ll be tied up until around 8PM. I’ll be updating the blog here as well during that time frame.

      Have a great evening!

    2. I read it. I dunno, sounds suspect to me. Thats all I’ll say about it to be kind.
      IMO, long range forecast are suspect at this point. Nobody got winter correct, really. Models broke down all over the place. I think you really cant tell too much about a seasonal pattern until you’re actually in it and have seen trends. After december and into January, it was pretty clear how the rest of the winter was going to go if one looked at it objectively. And I highly doubt a long term months on end negative NAO. Not sure what he’s baseing that on.
      Spring just started and it’s actually pretty normal at this point, last week not withstanding. The only person I saw that came close this winter was Brett Anderson. And he’s calling for a normal to warmer spring season. I think what has folks spooked is the really warm weather we just went thru and now its cool to cold when the reality is, this is normal for late March early April in New England. I think people just need to have some perspective.

  24. I find it puzzling to see all the mentions of bringing in your plants and that farmers are going to feel the effects of the next two nights. It’s March for crying out load! Growing season is several weeks away hence the lack of frost and freeze warnings for our area. Obviously the warm weather of last week could get you into the spring spirit but come on, be serious. You have talk of people opening up swimming pools so their children can go swimming in March which is ridiculous. It’s an abnormal event so take it for the experience it is. Watch closley and see the effect of the vegetation that have bloomed already. It’s a learning experience the mother nature is providing for us.

      1. Coastal it may be march but I have never seen some of the plants in my yard above ground in the 30+ years I’ve been here. As I said earlier I listened to people tell me a few years back not to worry and lost some very special plants – planted in memory of those lost. I don’t quite understand why it’s troubling. Better to ere on the side of caution

        As far as the iPad autocorrect the saddest thing of all is that if you are an iPad user you actually get good at decoding another persons autocorrect words 🙂

        1. I think people are making it a big deal when it’s not. Perennials may not bloom this year because of the warm to cold weather but I highly doubt it would kill the plants. Annuals simply should not be started outside a thus time of the year.

          I find it troubling because so much of the news we receive is blown out of proportion. Exactly the opposite of TK’s forecast on her. The hype machine is all we have now adays. Gardening with gutner already was on las week. A bit premature for me.

          😉

    2. The whole planting thing is crazy. I almost went out and did lawn work but then thought better of it. Now as far as someone opening the pool…I actually thought that was pretty cool. It got me to thinking about opening it up a lot earlier this year. Last year we waited until after Memorial Day only to find we had to replace the liner. By the time we picked one out and was installed it was after July 4th. So this year the pool will be open and ready by Mid May at the latest. Now when we will actually swim in it remains to be seen 😉

    1. Nor do it. But these are perennials. The peonies in my yard are up about 4-5 inches. We have lived here since 1979 and they were here when we bought the house. I’ve never seen them so much as peak out before mid April.

  26. Some of us want the perennials to bloom. That’s why we garners want to cover plants. Big difference between annuals and perinnials. As far as farmers are concerned, it’s crops like fruit, strawberries, etc ( in other words perinnials) that’s the issue. It’s not stuff that’s been planted in the last few weeks.

    1. I read that on Terry’s blog too. When was the last time we’ve experienced this here in New England?

      1. Coastal I can’t remember a year I haven’t had to cover my garden. Well that’s a lie :). I didn’t have to 20 years ago or before. I think people just don’t see the change since its gradual. I have had to cover the perennials at least once and more often more for 10-15 years now every year

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