Monday December 12 2022 Forecast (7:34AM)

129 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Low pressure that produced a Sunday evening snow event exits to the east, pushed out by high pressure today, but some ocean-effect snow showers continue for part of the morning in the MA South Shore to Cape Cod area. The large high, which is centered over eastern Canada, is part of a blocking pattern which also features a sprawling low pressure circulation to its south, and our east. For the most part we are dry and chilly into midweek, but the low to the east gets close enough by Wednesday so that its circulation may help kick off some coastal snow showers that day. As it pulls to the east, the next low pressure area to our west will approach and move in by the end of the week. There is still some uncertainty as to the detail of how it plays out. A main low pressure area approaches the Great Lakes and a new one should form near or just off the northern Mid Atlantic Coast, the track of this ultimately helping to determine precipitation type. Leaning toward a rain event for the coast and rain/mix/snow over the interior with fine-tuning to do.

TODAY: Clouds give way to a sun/cloud mix. Snow showers through mid morning MA South Shore to Cape Cod. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Possible snow showers near eastern coastal areas. Highs 32-39. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Thickening clouds. Rain arriving overnight, may start as snow away from the coast. Lows 31-38 evening, may rise overnight. Wind E to SE 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, but some mix/snow possible interior higher elevations. Highs 38-45 north and west of Boston, 45-52 Boston southeastward. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Low pressure departs Saturday – rain/mix may end as snow. Upper level low pressure crosses the region Sunday with a few snow showers possible. Generally dry and chilly weather is expected early to middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 22-26)

Two potential disturbances with precipitation chances around December 22 and again later in the period. Overall pattern is mostly dry with variable temperatures averaging near to below normal.

129 thoughts on “Monday December 12 2022 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Having our own snowfall this morning.

    Even in my neighborhood, the grass has a thin accumulation.

    Go 1-2 miles west on 139 and its a thick coating, even starting to coat the sidewalks.

    Light to almost moderate snow falling.

    1. Fixed that. I had a weird edit error where it ate part of a line and wouldn’t give it back, so I rewrote it, and somehow it re-inserted the lost part further down the discussion. Bizarre. I hate WordPress. I’m really looking to boot this blog off this thing asap. Grr.

  5. Thanks TK.

    According to Matt Noyes (NBC-10) two dates to watch for snow: 12/22 and 12/26.

    Very rare for TK and a tv met to be on the same page for a medium-long range forecast. 🙂

  6. Worcester 4.5” Boston 0.9” (total to date)

    Yesterday ORH = 2.5”

    Logan received its first “inch” of the season (more or less). Just about on time, I believe. Maybe a week late?

  7. Thanks TK
    Nice to wake up to a fresh blanket of snow. Officially 5.6 at BDL where the weather records are kept for inland CT. Friday looks to be a GROSSAROMA!!!

  10. Pretty heavy coating in pembroke this morning with some slick driving , it was snowing pretty decently when I left the house at 5am this morning .

  11. I previously mentioned about my fractured ankle at the apartment complex here in Warwick RI. I’m in litigation with the corporate owners because of my ongoing injury. So far they haven’t treated or shoveled the sidewalk where I fell. Sorry if this is off topic. I measured four inches on my car’s roof.

    1. It is certainly on topic in my opinion.

      The corporate owners are NEGLIGENT for certain!
      Disgraceful!!!

      I hope you WIN BIG!!!!

    2. Robert as someone who did mandatory snow removal for a well known Boston location . This location is 100% in the wrong. I am assuming they have a contract with a landscaper/ or other company that is responsible for doing this upkeep. Keep all the records you can & try to get pictures ( time & date ) & give them to your lawyer , if not already . The safety of this complex is absolutely mandatory & it’s not being done .

      1. Robert, DON’T “settle”! Get ALL that you can.

        Hope that you have a very, very reputable lawyer/law firm representing you. Best of luck!

      2. I have an eyewitness that saw everything that happened. The spot on the sidewalk where I fell still not treated or shoveled this morning . I’m coming up on two years hoping to settle soon.

      1. It looks to me like a REPEAT of this week’s system!
        I am disappointed to say the least. Long way to go for that date, so let’s see what happens. 🙂

          1. 0z euro looked similar for that system as well. I think they are WAY over amplified and too far west given the pattern. Fortunately way too far off in the future right now to be concerned and plenty of time for corrections

  16. Today’s 12z GFS projection of the late week system is the first one that looks reasonable for how such a set-up should behave with blocking present.

      1. Much better track on the GFS south and east of us. If it verifies, it could keep portions of interior SNE as mostly snow and even flip rain to snow right down the coast on the back side as the storm exits.

        Unfortunately it is the GFS and I wouldnt trust it until the other models come on line.

      2. Yes …… the idea of the sfc low headed straight east, remaining south of the south coast looks something reasonable in a blocking setup.

        1. True,
          Just saying as depicted, too little too late. But as I said, it
          offers some hope. Let’s see how things shake out over the next several days.

  17. Thanks TK.

    Reposting my post from late last night:

    5.5″ total here in Coventry CT and 6″ total on the season. Nice storm to kick off the season! (I dont really count the snow to rain event in November)

    The final NWS forecast for my area was 3-5″ so we over achieved a bit here.

    A few photos from the deck:

    https://imgur.com/8PohddW

    https://imgur.com/fatj7dR

  25. For this Friday, we need the coastal a little more East and South. Won’t take too much, but I assume that is TOO MUCH TO ASK!

    2. I think we are cooked for this Friday but very much in the game for the subsequent storm threats.

      I will also be OK with sacrificing the Friday system if ski country can get walloped. I was skiing at Stratton Saturday and they really need it. They had 24 trails open but it was all manmade snow…no natural snowcover anywhere, even at the summit.

  27. All it will take is a bit of the SE ridge to set-up and there’ll be a lot of arctic cold, but it will be further west than currently depicted.

  30. Current thoughts for the late week system. A few days ago based on ensembles and the set up I was thinking a more southerly track and a storm sliding in such a way that we could have had a decent winter storm. Now due to ensembles and the predicted high pressure placement and movement along with the transition to the coast and how long it takes has slowed down, I am leaning more rain than snow right now. https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1602290954542911488/photo/1

        1. Well I’d rather that effect stop sooner rather than later so I can start narrowing down details for the system. 🙂

      2. Dave the 0z run had a track hugging the coast and going up through SE MA. 12z track is up I-84 and the northern belt of 495. So a slight shift to the NW/further inland.

  35. Could the GFS be right for once as it gives my area a nice snowfall. I got a better chance of seeing the sun tomorrow than the GFS being right.

  36. Still far too early to really do a lot with run-to-run details on Friday’s system, let alone something next week.

    On a different note in response to SAK’s shared Tweet, that is impressive cold in Siberia – in many areas the coldest since the 1980s and some the coldest observed this early in the season.

    Seems the northern hemisphere wants to get in on the cold the southern hemisphere has experienced during the last 2 years.

    2. I hope you are correct, but I strongly suspect a Westward passage. We shall see. C’mon block, do your friggin job!!

      1. That one may, as indicated above, do most of its passing as rain, then end as snow and followed up with snow showers with the upper low over the weekend.

        It’s going to be tough to get a significant snow out of that one.

    1. Mark I was thinking the same thing. Maybe my part of CT could get a couple inches before a change over.

    1. Just saw this too and I agree. Regardless what happens Friday, should have a couple additional chances at a white Xmas next week.

  41. Mark I like how you think. A couple of feet of snow before a change over would be nice. This COULD be a northwest hills special.

  43. Mark at least Aaron Judge is staying with the Yankees. Now I am waiting to see what other moves are made.

  44. ha ha keep dreaming you guys. I wishing and hoping with you, with a good dose of reality. 🙂

    I have pretty much given up for Friday and the next 2 chances, I do NOT like the looks of so far. Plenty of time, but so far, I am under whelmed! But then, ALL I have to look at is the GFS. 🙂 🙂

    I reserve judgement until the Euro comes into range. Well it kind of is for the 1st one, again NOT impressed.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022121212&fh=216&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Although this is INFINITELY BETTER than Friday!

    just where’s the Beef???????

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U80ebi4AKgs

    1. I wouldn’t worry too much about the chances after that. Nothing is trustable on models outside of day 4. And the GFS, maybe day 3..if that. 😉

    2. Patience! Next week will come into line. Deeper cold and better blocking in place. The model solutions right now for next week at 7-10 days out are virtually useless outside of depicting the overall pattern….and even that is somewhat suspect at times.

    1. Track looks even further offshore but didnt seem to help much with the rain/snow line….still wet to NH for the most part with a brief change to snow in the end.

      1. We’re going to have BL issues because of a straight E wind off relatively warm water – too much gradient to keep that wind from doing its thing.

        We also lack the ability to make cold from above until a lot of the precipitation has fallen.

        So then how could it end up colder? A track further offshore could keep the wind east for a shorter time, turn it more northerly sooner, and chill the BL adequately. You might also shift a lot of the heaviest stuff to the east but still you’d end up with frozen stuff sooner.

        Wildcard: What does the upper level energy do over the weekend? Probably not much more than snow showers, but those can always add coatings here and there.

        A little more analysis to come but that’s my thought on it for now.

        1. I noticed the GFS tried to do that as the storm pulled away. A burst of heavier snow in most places as the ULL moved through at the end.

          Definitely need to root for that low to stay further south/offshore, that goes without saying. Best chance to see a longer period of frozen over a wider area at the end.

          Let’s hope the GFS/TK solution is correct.

  47. Even though the CPC 6-10/8-14 temps are quite below normal for most of the U.S., our area is near normal to just barely below. Combine that marginal air with a still warm ocean temperature (50F) doesn’t provide an “ideal” opportunity for a White Christmas for SNE. Darn that 25%. 🙁

    I am beginning to wonder if we’ll have to wait until after New Years for our first widespread meaningful snow? Perhaps by then the core of the cold will finally be right over us along with an active southern track.

    1. You don’t need below normal temps to get snow, even with ocean temps 40+. The wind is not always straight off the water for these events, like yesterday’s for example.

      Also, these are forecast average temps for a 5 and 7 day periods. They don’t mean that the temperature will be the same the entire time, relative to normal.

      It’s always been like that.

      Also, if the core of the cold is over us, our odds of snow may actually drop, due to exceedingly dry weather and a storm track too far south. The analogy is not always colder = snowier. It can be quite opposite within certain boundaries.

  48. 2009-2010 winter comes to mind when the storm track was south and the Mid Atlantic got walloped. SNOWMAGEDEN as it was called that winter for the Mid Atlantic.

  49. Devil’s in the details, but the upcoming pattern is textbook perfect for snow in the Northeast. I mean, it is loaded. The biggest risk, as TK has mentioned, would be suppression in the storm track, after we get by the end of this week event. Speaking of, while it will be tough to get snow at the coast with that one, areas not far inland are still very much in the game for at least some snow with that one.

    Closer to home (for me), here’s a couple pictures I got today. The first two are at about 4500′ elevation, about a 45 minute drive from me. The last one is from an intersection right next to where I live, the clouds were just clearing enough for the higher peaks (~8500-10,000′) to start becoming visible. Very pretty!

    https://imgur.com/a/P7z5vPc

    1. Wow. Quite the juxtaposition there with the palm trees in the forefront and the towering snow covered mountains nearby in the background. What town are you living in again?

      1. Ontario (not Canada lol) is my home base. And yep, it is definitely quite a contrast, love seeing the mountains with snow on them. But very rare (though not unheard of) to get even a few flakes down at my elevation.

  50. SAK myself & Philip asked you a question above , I was wondering if you saw it & if so if you could respond please , thank you .

    1. I can answer that. It figures in the overall pattern somewhat, because it’s part of the cold air supply that is open to coming down here (as noted in my blog discussion) next week.

        1. I’m just as qualified. We’re both meteorologists.
          Nobody is required to answer any question.
          It’s also possible it wasn’t seen by the person you asked.
          It’s really no big deal. 🙂

  51. Factoids on Okymakon, Siberia. Not on my bucket list yet, but after the war in Ukraine perhaps it will be, along with a ride on the trans-Siberian express.

    Oymyakon has a Northern Labrador look:
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c1/Oymyakon_-_190228_DSC_5642.jpg/1280px-Oymyakon_-_190228_DSC_5642.jpg

    Oymyakon has never recorded an above-freezing temperature between 26 October and 16 March.

    It’s warm there in mid summer. This year, on 7 July, the warmest night on record was observed, with an overnight low of 65.5 °F).

    In July 2010, Oymyakon recorded a record high temperature of 94.3 °F), yielding a temperature range of 190.4 °F that year.

Comments are closed.