Wednesday December 14 2022 Forecast (7:53AM)

61 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 14-18)

Large scale blocking goes on, driven by Canadian high pressure. A large offshore storm pushed a cold front through the region overnight, accompanied by snow showers, which coated the ground in some places, but much of that then blew into crevices by strong winds behind the front. The gusty winds will continue today but with lots of sun and passing clouds. A few of these clouds may produce a snow flurry, but the better chance of this will be over Cape Cod. It will feel quite a bit colder than yesterday, even though the temperature is only slightly lower, due to the stronger wind and resultant wind chill effect. The gusty wind keeps up this evening then starts to relax overnight while shifting to northeast as low pressure to the east starts to lose influence and high pressure to the north drives the air flow. With time, that will combine with the air flow around the approaching low from the southwest, turning the wind more easterly as Thursday goes on. This brings in ocean stratus, while clouds from the approaching low will be coming in above those, so Thursday turns out to have little or no sun. Low pressure is set to track just south of our region on Friday, an elongation / redevelopment of an initial storm that was entering the Great Lakes region, as described in previous discussions. It’s pretty apparent now that this will be a mainly rain event for the WHW forecast area, although there could be some snow with a bit of accumulation at the start over interior higher elevations of central MA to southwestern NH, but too much mild air from the ocean means all areas are rain for the bulk of the event. There may be a decent temperature contrast on Friday, as the storm’s main precipitation shield passes through, depending on the exact track of low pressure. If it comes up across far southeastern MA, a quick jump to 50+ temps may occur over Cape Cod and the Islands, while it’s quite a bit cooler off to the north and west. As low pressure pulls away on Saturday, improvement will be slow to occur, and the return of colder air means that precipitation can switch from rain back to snow …. however … this will be taking place after the main precipitation has departed, so I am only expecting a transition from lingering rain showers to snow showers. Colder air moves in for Sunday but the passage of upper level low pressure and a trough that was once the initial storm means a few snow showers may occur. Otherwise expecting a mainly dry Sunday.

TODAY: Sun, occasional passing clouds. A few snow showers possible near eastern coastal MA but especially Cape Cod. Highs 32-39. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH early, becoming NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 36-43. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Thickening clouds. Rain arriving overnight, may start as snow away from the coast, especially higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH where a coating to 1 inch of snow may fall initially. Lows 31-38 evening followed by a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind E 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH, strongest coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 38-45 north and west of Boston, 45-52 Boston southeastward, mildest over Cape Cod and Islands. Wind E 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH, strongest coast, may shift to S late day over Cape Cod and Islands.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain likely through the evening hours, tapering off to rain showers overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind briefly variable around Cape Cod otherwise E to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, shifting to W overnight.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Rain showers may turn to snow showers from west to east before ending. Highs 38-45 morning, then turning colder. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 19-23)

A dry, cold pattern is expected for a good portion of the week leading up to Christmas, but we’ll be watching for low pressure to impact the region late in the week – far too soon to speculate on any details with this possible system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 24-28)

One or two potential disturbances with precipitation chances, otherwise mostly dry with temperatures averaging near to below normal.

61 thoughts on “Wednesday December 14 2022 Forecast (7:53AM)”

  3. Thanks TK.

    Overnight snow showers a nice surprise! Nothing to impact roads, just right to continue getting into the Christmas spirit.

    Chances of a White Christmas not too good though, huh?

    1. It certainly impacted the roads. Most of the roads were wet after the snow showers went through, and then froze over. On my drive home early this morning, I saw them salting Route 3, 128, 24, as well as the main roads down near my house.

      1. I agree SAK as they were salting in pembroke when I left the house at 4am & along Rt 3 , I used extreme caution . And the other issue was the wind , I’m telling you going down Rt 3 I thought my truck was going to get blown off the road as the wind was insane !!

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    pretty chilly this AM. Was down to 22 this morning, making it the coldest of the season for my location. 🙂

    Ocean temp down to 48.92, still 3.57 degrees below average.
    Looks like the gap will be closing over the next few weeks.

  5. Thanks TK. Looking into getting my daughter tickets to Pats game on the 24th but thought it would be good to check the potential weather first. I know it’s a bit out there but do you see anything noteworthy?

  8. Thanks TK
    This looks like a northwest hills special in CT with the upcoming storm system. I hate that is my area always seems to be just missing out on snowfall. Rain for most of CT but several inches of snow in the northwest hills.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    While I don’t like what Friday will bring us – glop and cold rain – I really enjoy today’s weather. Yesterday was fine, too. Looks like next week will be similar.

    1. Quite a disparity amongst the models for western CT and your area 48 hours out….I guess a good starting range for you is 1-10″ lol.

      GFS and RGEM drop an 1″ on my area and the NAM as much as 3″. If this storm exits Friday and the ground is still white, I will be happy at this point. We have a nice solid snow cover now from Sunday’s snow.

  17. Mark I think I will see flakes with this storm system at the very least. The question is how much if any will accumulate. The GFS is the most bullish run after run for my area.

  19. Ok, building on the 00z GFS, the 12z GFS follows similarly with a a pretty intense cold plunge in the medium range. (big picture)

    How that might play out in the smaller scale, no way too know this far out. (IE, will it be snow squalls, a coastal storm due to redevelopment, an inside runner with a brutal temp plunge behind a cold frontal passage ??)

  21. The one thing I can’t agree with the 12z GFS on is the snow projections for this short term snow.

    How it brings the snow to Boston and especially to the northwest, when the projected temps during the storm fall to 34F at the coldest is beyond me.

  22. Hi Everyone,

    Thanks for all the information. When does it start to get stormy/rain in Boston on Friday? Morning, afternoon?

    Thank you
    Tj

  23. Thanks, TK. Glad you are feeling better.

    This is not weather related but I have an issue with Boston.com re: traffic. I have always been able to look at the traffic situation in, around and outside of the Boston area with no problem. Now I can’t do It unless I allow ads. I know ads are everywhere but it is frustrating. I guess it’s all part of how crazy this world has become.

  25. So close yet so far to a good dumping of snow. Winter Storm Watch in effect for the northern part of Litchfield County.

  27. Recall the outrageous solution the mets on the blog pointed out from models like the Canadian, which brought that storm fully back into New England with basically a blizzard today?

    Another example that we have the ability to identify overdone runs. Just part of what we do. 😉

    That batch of snow showers that went through overnight was your “blizzard”, by the way. 😉

      1. I know everyone hopes fit Christmas snow. I do also. But as important as that is to me, family will always come first. I’m glad this is far out

    2. Even the operational at 9 days out is showing a potent east coast storm with a rain/snow line about 50 miles from Boston. Not a bad look at all considering the lead time.

      Biggest takeaway is that the overall pattern is going to support east coast storminess in that time frame and people should be monitoring future forecasts as the 23rd is surely going to be a huge travel day.

  31. Looks like a tornado struck near New Orleans, perhaps the southern parishes with 3 deaths, if I read l correctly.

  32. What are we looking at for snow around Nashua NH, especially Saturday totals…? Was going up there in the afternoon but maybe not due to clean up…?

    1. From what I am seeing it is mainly a rain event for Nashua with a mix and change to wet snow overnight Friday/Saturday AM before ending. NWS only has Nashua getting an inch or two. If it were me I probably wouldn’t be changing my plans.

      Now once you head west of Nashua towards Jaffrey or north towards Concord you are going to see the snow totals go up significantly.

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