Thursday December 15 2022 Forecast (7:53AM)

86 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 15-19)

Our block goes on and the long-talked-about storm system at the end of the week is almost here, since it’s almost the end of the week! No changes from yesterday’s thought process, so this is basically a repeat of that. Elongating low pressure redevelops off the northern Mid Atlantic Coast and tracks just south of New England, possibly over the Islands and Outer Cape Cod through Friday to a position just east of New England Saturday, before moving away, with upper level low pressure still to swing through during the weekend. The unsettled results will be re-outlined in the detailed forecast section below. Still looking for dry, chilly weather to start next week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 36-43. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening clouds. Rain arriving overnight, may start as snow away from the coast, especially higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH where a coating to 1 inch of snow may fall initially. Lows 31-38 evening followed by a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind E 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH, strongest coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 38-45 north and west of Boston, 45-52 Boston southeastward, mildest over Cape Cod and Islands. Wind E 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH, strongest coast, may shift to S late day over Cape Cod and Islands.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain likely through the evening hours, tapering off to rain showers overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind briefly variable around Cape Cod otherwise E to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, shifting to W overnight.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Rain showers may turn to snow showers from west to east before ending. Highs 38-45 morning, then turning colder. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 20-24)

Mainly dry, seasonably cold for the first couple days of this period. Keeping an eye on the December 22-23 period for a potential storm system in which it’s far to soon to discuss any details. Cold with lingering snow showers for Christmas Eve assuming current timing is correct.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 25-29)

One or two potential disturbances with precipitation chances, otherwise mostly dry with temperatures averaging below normal. Will be able to go into more detail on the late days of December soon.

86 thoughts on “Thursday December 15 2022 Forecast (7:53AM)”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    Imminent pattern change across Northwestern Europe. The southwesterly – prevailing wind direction across Northwestern Europe – is taking over in earnest by the weekend. It’ll `push out’ the cold dome that had been impacting the weather there during the past 5-7 days. Areas of low pressure racing across the Atlantic will line up in parade fashion and dominate the weather in that part of the world. 30s today and tomorrow, but 50 by Monday and beyond for the foreseeable future.

  4. But according to the front page of the Herald website, some of us are getting 18 inches of snow!

    Seriously though, being the end of the year I just want to come on here and thank everyone for being the #1 place I can come for actual real weather. (although it makes me angry how much most of you love snow lol).

    I rarely comment but I have been following WHW for as long as I can remember. As an anxious snow-disliking person, WHW is a saving grace!

    1. Sorry that I like snow, but it is great to see you here.
      Please stop by more often, even if it is an ANTI_SNOW RANT!
      🙂

  5. Thanks TK
    Northwest Hills special in CT with this storm system. I am just missing a 6-12 inch snowfall to the north of me. At least I don’t have to drive far if I want to see a winter wonderland.

  8. Hadi welcome back. Good to see you posting. Your Commanders have a big game Sunday night against the Giants.

  9. I made it to the 5 day forecast! But already parts of long range forecast aren’t relevant 🙁 this visit is too short….

      1. Well …….

        Cold’s coming for sure into the US.

        Question is, how does the trof introducing it evolve?

        I would think there’d be a sharp temp contrast and likely a storm because of that evolving temp contrast.

        I’m afraid we have multiple days of back and forth coming before we settle into something consistent for just prior to Christmas.

  16. Decent arm of precip in eastern areas.

    I’m guessing coastal front, with ESE flow aloft overrunning raw NE flow at the surface ??

  17. We’ll continue to see wild variation and inconsistency and a GFS that can’t be trusted…

    Bottom line: forget details and focus on pattern beyond day 4.

  18. Oh man, I needed a good laugh this morning and did the GFS ever provide it. There’s a reason I’ve been ignoring that model for a few weeks now and will continue to do so for the forseeable future.

    1. Yep!

      Who would have thought some of the best works of fiction of the 21st century would be courtesy NCEP? 🙂

  21. Well that escalated quickly. GFS and EURO both went you want a white XMAS here ya go. 968mb bomb off of cape cod. Actually surprising agreement for this far out between the GFS its ensembles and EURO. There are some differences in how the low develops as there is three pieces of energy at play so we all know that it will of course change a hundred times between now and then, My brother is coming up from the DC area on the 23rd so a nice snowfall yes but a blizzard no thank you.

  22. 12Z Euro Operational run

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022121512&fh=186&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&m=ecmwf_full

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022121512&fh=192&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow through 234 hours.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022121512&fh=234&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    All near the coast is from the just before Christmas storm.
    All West is Tomorrow’s and the Next one.

    Now waiting for the ensemble run

  23. Thanks TK.

    A useful skill as a forecaster is recognizing potential in a pattern while also not losing sight of the full range of possible outcomes. Ensembles are certainly a good tool for this. Let’s face it, people and decision makers care about “big ticket” events, even though it’s often more subtle/sneaky events that can be just as impactful if not more so.

    The end of next week has an enormously high “ceiling” in what it could potentially do. It’s the type of large scale pattern that *could* produce a major/historic event in terms of cold and/or storminess. It’s important to recognize that potential is there, while also acknowledging there remain a wide range of possible outcomes. Going to be an interesting next several days.

    1. Thank you WxWatcher. Looking forward to it.

      I could envision a coastal hugger or even inside runner where the coast gets mostly rain and then we go into the deep freeze afterwards, getting screwed out of a white Christmas.

      Time will tell.

      1. Yep, many options on the table, and even if something major happens, it may not necessarily mean SNE is the full focus of it.

        Very early stages of course, but if you’re looking for snow there, I’d be more concerned about a storm passing too far south and east as opposed to west. We shall see 🙂

  24. Thanks TK. I am curious how far inland the coastal plan extends. Also, any idea how much wind is expected in the metro west area?

    1. Additional responses to Ryan’s tweet:

      Replying to
      @ryanhanrahan

      “Snow likely” over a week out??? Seems rather aggressive considering it’s tough knowing what will happen tomorrow

      Ryan Hanrahan
      @ryanhanrahan
      32m

      Replying to
      @JoeBoslin

      It is likely. Our ensemble modeling showing unusually high probability of accumulating snow. “Likely” doesn’t mean “certainly”. Plus the last few storms we have been pretty spot on for almost a week out.

      Eric Weglarz
      @WeatherEric
      1h
      Replying to
      @ryanhanrahan

      Excuse me sir, I’m going to need more hype than this!

      Ryan Hanrahan
      @ryanhanrahan
      1h
      Replying to
      @WeatherEric

      Pattern looks money. We’ll see.

  26. Thanks TK.

    IMO, this is the best signal for a major east coast winter storm at the 7-9 day range out that we have seen in a number of years.

    Reminds me in a way of the Superstorm of 1993 when, even with the more “primitive” weather models we had at the time, there were many signs of a huge dip in the jetstream and a major storm forming over the southeastern U.S. A number of mets at the time started talking up the possibility of something big a full week in advance.

    This is NOT to say I am comparing this storm to the Superstorm (setup is not the same) or that it is in the bag that SNE gets a massive snowstorm but the pattern and setup at this lead time look really good to develop a powerful storm that is likely to impact us in some way.

    Today’s Euro and GFS and last nights GGEM show the outcome of what could happen if everything comes together (all out blizzard) and each of the models ensemble means look really good for some kind of impact at this time. Should be a very interesting week of tracking ahead!

    2. Dave is going to be a roller coaster of emotions the next several days with each model run. I sense alternating euphoria and explitives….hopefully ending in euphoria 🙂

      1. Ha ha

        Acutally I was just jump in to see what you had to say this PM. Thanks for all of the goodies as I enjoy reading them.

        Sure looks like something is brewing. We just have to wait and see what that something is. 🙂

        Nah, won’t be on a roller coaster. All of this crap is to be expected. I just want to see some model consistency as we get closer. It was nice seeing the GFS and EURO together on this, but how can we trust anything the GFS spits out.

  32. NWS Burlington and Albany going big with their snow forecast for tonight/tomorrow. Accumulation map projecting 18-24″ for most of the central/southern Greens with pockets of 24″+.

    https://www.weather.gov/btv/winter

    This will be a huge, much needed kickstart to the season for the NNE ski areas and I would expect trail counts will double in most places. Wish I could get up there this weekend but I dont think that is going to happen 🙁

  33. I remember the blizzard of 2013 being the last strong signal we had for a storm in the 8-9 day period. That storm did happen. Will see what happens here. More times I have seen a big snowstorm in that range and very little snow or the storm misses.

    1. Actually that one was not foreseen that far in advance in my recollection. The Euro sniffed it out first and was showing something big about 5 days in advance but the GFS did not come on board until about 3 days out.

      I remember exactly where I was when I pulled up that first GFS model run that caved to the Euro 3 days out and this blog lit up like a christmas tree as you like to say!

    1. February 2013 was seen about 1 week out.

      This pattern and current model behavior will not allow much more than rough signals.

      1. By the Euro, but not the GFS.

        Then again, those were the days that the Euro was considered King and when it latched on to something, everybody got on board. Perhaps we have come full circle on the Euro’s “kingdom” as the GFS has become erratic (to put it mildly).

      2. TK, this is what you wrote in your blog on Sunday night February 3, 2013:

        A break Thursday will be followed by another disturbance on Friday. Current indications are that it will be cold enough for snow at least inland and possibly marginal closer to the coast and over southern areas, but that again phasing with energy to its south will not take place until it is moving away, so that we get a much smaller event versus a bigger storm. One fairly reliable forecasting model has been showing a larger storm, so it will be watched, just in case it starts to swing in that direction.

        1. Euro showed its first “bomb” at 0z on 2/3 which got people talking but even at 5 days out, there was no model consensus on that storm.

          1. I have to be thinking of another event. It wasn’t that one. There was one that was about as certain as I’ve ever seen anything over a week out. It was in February – I must have the wrong year. 🙂

  35. What a day here on the north shore. I walked from Swampscott to Nahant and back this AM, and for this time of the year it was mild so I turned it into a 10k. Ever since, it has been gloomy and rainy all day. Given the next event, I think it will have rained here for 48 hours with perhaps a 6 hour break tonight from say 9 PM to 3 AM or thereabouts.

    As for a potential event next week, I have learned enough here and from all of you to say that we will fall somewhere between a monster snowstorm and HHH.

  36. 18z GFS is good for a nice laugh especially considering its last run.

    Completely different wave as the major storm.

    When us meteorologists are telling you that model is in really bad shape still, we mean it. The caution continues: Toss it until further notice, especially outside of 60 hours. It may be “ok” up to about that point before it goes to the tank.

  37. Longshot, Swampscott to Nahant is a nice (beach) walk. I lived in Nahant when I was 4 and 5. From my bedroom window, which I shared with my sister, we could see Egg Rock. For some reason the the island of Egg Rock and the ocean frightened me in November and December during storms. This was in 1969.

  40. I had a co-worker say to me in the elevator going home are you ready for the big snow storm next Thursday into Friday , sounds like this one might draw a lot of attention , hope it’s not a letdown

    2. The problem is, no actual meteorologist has called for a big snowstorm next Thursday and Friday. None of them have. We’ve only indicated that we’re watching the possibility of the storm. Browsing social media today, all the “alarms” are being sounded by the usual suspects – non-met hype-masters. Not surprised, but that’s where the info is coming from. As I say, it’s hard to ignore this for the exact reason shown above. That’s what people hear – that’s the news that goes around. Not the actual “we’re watching late next week for a potential storm threat / it’s too soon for details”. Instead, people hear “big snowstorm” and have decided that’s what we’re all getting.

      I really wish this would stop, but it’s not going to.

      1. Thank you thank you thank you. We all know how I feel about Mets. Honestly, I don’t think we can do a thing about the social media crowd except ignore them. And I know that is extremely hard to do

        1. I honestly try. I visit none of those pages on my own. I often get them shared to me by folks asking questions, which I’d rather have them do then not ask, so at least I can point them in the right direction. 🙂

          I hope all is well with you!

          1. Makes sense. All is well. It’s been crazy busy. But that is the same for everyone. Had a virtual meet with My PCPs PA today. So far the puncture wound looks ok. Fingers crossed it stays that way. Hope your mom is continuing to improve.

    1. I’d prefer not to have a major storm, but we are setting a plan B in case.

      We did have snow here last Christmas Eve. I’d forgotten but my youngest reminded me. She said we had flurries on Christmas Eve the year before but I remembered rain. I’ll trust her my dory over mine

      This was last year https://imgur.com/a/Sz3lgxS

  42. I remember it started snowing on Christmas Eve back in 1995 as we were eating dinner. It took a while for my relatives to get back home that night. On Christmas Day in 2002 I was at my grandmother’s house when the snow starting falling while we were eating dinner.

    1. I’m trying to remember what year we went to my daughters in-laws for Christmas dinner. My future SIl drove us home. There was a good amount of snow. It’s the only time i recall there being enough yo shovel

  43. In 2018 we had a vigorous cold front move through the Boston area on Christmas Day. It produced an inch of snow in some spots, as I recall.

    1. Indeed Joshua: the day started out very warm as we had to be in at 3am Christmas morning for the storm & it was down pouring . I think it turned to snow by 6 am & if this is the same storm it was more then an inch . There was 4 of us on snow removal & we did not get out of there until after 6pm Xmas night ( my first missed Xmas , it sucked .

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