Friday December 16 2022 Forecast (7:39AM)

141 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 16-20)

A rain event for most – except some higher elevation snow well inland (southwestern NH to parts of north central MA) today. This occurs as a redeveloped low wraps up just south of our region then moves to just east of the region by Saturday, at which time colder air moves back in and rain ends as snow showers for some areas. Upper level low pressure still has to cross the region Sunday with a few more snow showers possible, then high pressure noses back in for cold and dry weather early next week.

TODAY: Cloudy with rain likely, except snow with additional accumulation possible in highest elevations of north central MA through southwestern NH. Areas of fog. Highs 38-45 north and west of Boston, 45-52 Boston southeastward, mildest over Cape Cod and Islands. Wind E 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH, strongest coast, may shift to S late day over Cape Cod and Islands.

TONIGHT: Overcast with rain likely through the evening hours, tapering off to rain showers overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind briefly variable around Cape Cod otherwise E to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, shifting to W overnight.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers turning to snow showers west to east before tapering off. Some minor accumulation of snow is possible in portions of southern NH and northern MA. Highs 38-45 early, then turning colder. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 21-25)

Still watching the window of December 22-23 for a potential storm, and with medium range guidance showing a large spread of outcomes, there is a lot of uncertainty and it remains impossible to attempt any detailing whatsoever, other than to say the signal is there for an East Coast storm system pre-Christmas, with mostly dry and cold weather both before and after it.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 26-30)

Overall pattern looks cold with one or two precipitation chances, but with uncertainties before this, the confidence becomes even lower for this period.

141 thoughts on “Friday December 16 2022 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    Models trending West for pre-Christmas storm potential, even the ensembles. Now we wait to see what the 12z suite shows us. 🙂

    2. Here is a zoomed in shot of the MA Berkshires. Notice the higher snow amounts exactly where Mt. Greylock is.

      At 3,491 feet, Mount Greylock is the highest point in Massachusetts.

      https://ibb.co/kxztsC8

      I find this most interesting

      2. This is cool. Will send to my son and wife. They spend lots of time there camping and as you know exchanged vows at the summit of greylock

  13. Epic failure by the models and the rest of us humans across southern NH this morning. Winds stayed northeast, affecting some drier air in as the rain moved in. As a result, temperatures that were 36-40 when I left Nashua at 3am, dropped to 32 by 6-7am, and stayed there for a couple of hours. The rest was 2-3″ of completely unforecasted snow across the region. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, had that in the forecast.

    2. Ouch and yes. A friend of mine in Sundown recently informed me it was snowing healthily there. I had brief snow then rain. Oops!

  14. Thanks TK.

    Woke up this morning to see what was left of the 5.5″ of snow we received on Sunday incinerated. It hasnt been all that warm (temps holding in the upper 30’s) but the rain has melted the solid snowcover we had up until yesterday aside from a few snow patches and mounds.

    I was 20 miles too far east and 300′ too low in elevation for this one. North Granby in NW Hartford County has reported 6″ of snow so far.

    9″ at Magic Mountain VT and 11″ at Gore Mountain NY so far. Lots of lifts at the ski areas on hold right now due to the heavy snow and high winds.

  19. A double whammy from the GFS?

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022121612&fh=165&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022121612&fh=186&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022121612&fh=189&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Run total Kunera through hour 219. Of course includes any today since 7AM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022121612&fh=219&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. I wish we could even 1/2 trust the GFS. Will be checking
      the CMC shortly.

      Even the GFS wants to come inside!_@*#)*!@()#*)(!@*#()

    2. Prett crazy the GFS breaks this into two storms and the second one still ends up as a 965 mb bomb. A bomb that strong would not be good as it will draw the storm in tight to the coast meaning changeover to rain for many, wind damage, and coastal flooding.

    1. The CMC with its wild swings in track right now is making the GFS look like a pillar of consistency. Ain’t no way this thing is cutting into the UP of Michigan.

    1. Let me just say “HOW NICE”

      ha ha ha hardy har har har.

      Now IF the EUro also shows that track, then watch out.

    3. 12z UKMET is also a severe cutter. In GFS we trust???

      Thank God this is still a 7 day threat.

      Hopefully the windshield washers still work…

      1. They’re probably broken.

        Wanna bet the Euro is also a massive cutter.
        I thought we couldn’t get cutters with the block.
        Oh, i Get it, The block is Kaput by then. 🙂 🙂

        You’ll hear me in CT if the Euro is also a cutter!

        Let us hope this changes during this 7 day period.
        There is time, so we shall see.

        2. Reading what a few are saying on the American wx blog. I believe they are extrapolating. Ukie looks like the CMC in that it does not move the PV east. Would be a similar result to the Icon/CMC solution.

  22. Working with 96 eleven and twelve years old 180 days a year doesn’t provide as much stress as weather models do during the cold season. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 Even 6th graders are more consistent !!

  25. Anchorage, AK has received 41.1″ of snow so far this month. All of it fell in the past 11 days, making it the 2nd snowiest 11-day span on record in Anchorage, trailing only 44.6″ during an 11-day span in 1996. That also makes this the snowiest month for Anchorage since 52.1″ fell in February, 1996 (their snowiest month on record). It’s the 2nd snowiest December on record there (41.6″ in December, 1955), and 4th snowiest month overall on record. So, if you’re wondering where our snow is, it’s over there.

    BTW, Anchorage has also set records for most precipitation in December (3.75″) and in a calendar year (28.53″ , old record 27.55″ in 1989).

      1. I had always thought of Anchorage as a very snowy and wet place but it is not. They actually only average less than 2″ of melted precip in December.

  27. I’m trying to recall a time where we have seen a lead wave/disturbance/low followed up pretty quickly by an absolute bomb of a storm.

    I feel like we see systems get strung out, resulting in long duration events and certainly we see occasional bomb storms …… but not a combo, like today’s 12z GFS depiction.

  28. won’t really know what the storm does until the two main pieces of energy move over North America which wont be until Sunday night.

  29. IF a storm happens, I think eastern New England is going to struggle for a good amount of snow and it goes beyond the ocean and its effects.

    If you look a few days prior to the time period in question, it looks like the surge of arctic air is going more south through the plains than it is east, into southern Canada.

    I’m not sure how much cold air is going to be established north of New England ahead of a potential storm AND if the arctic air is surging south, it should equate to a temp contrast further to our west and more of an interior track closer to the temp contrast.

      1. Well, the Euro does as I described above. At the storms infancy, the arctic plunge is straight southward and if arctic air is surging straight south in the central US, one can assume mild/warm air is going to move northward along the east coast.

  31. Thanks, TK!

    Four more “wake-ups” to the Holiday Break. We do not have classes on December 23 and return Tuesday, January 3.

    White Christmas: I remember a white Christmas in 1974 when I was 14. I watched Bruce Schwoegler during the 11 pm cast on Christmas Eve and he said that a White Christmas was not in the cards. Low and behold, when I woke up Christmas morning, there was 3″ of snow on the ground!

    I am just remembering that we lost Bruce this year.

    TK, I believe you used the words “actual meteorologist” in one of your comments yesterday. I am much amused! 🙂

    Have a great weekend, WHW friends! Safe commute home, please!!!

      1. That Christmas 1974 I got my first NOAA Wx Radio as a present from my grandmother. Boy was I excited. Unlike most presents that I stopped playing with by January, I wore that radio out for several years to come to say the least. 🙂

        1. I believe I bought at least two more after that. The NWS didn’t replace Don Kent by any means but they were at least “classy” back in those days. Still loved to hear their forecasts. 🙂

    1. Literally a 1,500 mile shift west on the Euro. Huge differences in outcome based on how the international models are handling the position of the PV today vs yesterday.

  33. That solution verbatim would be a repeat of the Christmas 2020 grinch storm and would incinerate all the fresh snow the ski areas are getting this weekend as dew points across New England surge into the 40s and 50s along with tropical storm like conditions.

    If this BS is still on the models by Sunday night, we are booking flights to Anchorage for Xmas!

  34. EPS isn’t going to help us here. Best we can hope for is that we cut our losses and the mean is still east of Detroit!

  36. From one of the Mets on the American weather forum. I fear he is correct;

    I don’t think this is coming back…the problem is the whole W Canada PV change is inside 72 hours, for the models to make that shift like this and be wrong on that is unlikely…its possible though its nowhere near as amped as the Op Euro…as a matter of fact its likely it is nowhere near that amped…it could trend to a glorified FROPA as I said earlier

      1. I for one am surprised, I was worried more about a miss out to sea or a coastal hugger, not a Chicago cutter.

        I’d be holding out some hope with the GFS solution still on board had they not just absolutely mutilated that model with the recent upgrade. My guess is that 18z will have this thing 948 mb over Des Moines!!

        2. I wouldn’t hang much hope on anything GFS-related until they fix it. 🙂

          At this rate, if it’s right, it will probably be for the wrong reason. 😉

  37. There will most likely be a significant storm somewhere near the East Coast late next week. If you are trying to figure out any details beyond that at this point, that is a fool’s errand. I expect TK will say something similar shortly.

  38. 7 inches of snow at a friend’s in Fitchburg, over 600 feet in elevation.

    As of 3PM it was still snowing there. Downtown, 2 miles away, had 2 inches of snow and was raining at that time.

  39. So yes, I do see all over the net people getting TOO hung up on run-to-run details of models as if each run is the final outcome. Ensembles / trends .. that’s the way to go.

    I get on here on the blog many people do it for fun, to see how they change. I get that part and I like it too, so I’m not preaching to anybody here. But out there it’s like the end of the world if the run doesn’t show some textbook perfect scenario according to what they want. Weather doesn’t work like that.

    And modeling definitely doesn’t work like that. Myself & all the mets here say that, as you know, all the time. But I also say it in places beyond the blog. Out there, it’s not grasped.

    Today I was getting messages about the “big snowstorm on Christmas Eve & Christmas Day” which was triggered by a non-met post reacting to one run of yesterday’s GFS (when it changed waves), and the person wishcasting it to a Christmas Eve / Christmas Day blizzard, because that’s what they want to happen.

    As I have stated the big problem these days is more info is coming from the fakes than the reals. I stated yesterday as well that none of the local meteorologists had gone into any detail about any threat next week – only mentioning the potential and approximate time frame.

    Note: The same person also made a post on their weather page saying that meteorologists who go to college and earn degrees are liars and there’s no need to get a college education to become a meteorologist. That says it all.

    Note (part 2): This same person was also one of the bullies on the old WBZ weather blog. 😉

    1. I bet we won’t even get it because everyone is talking about it everywhere I go . I can say one thing if a storm were to Happen Friday it would not be good for last minute Xmas shopping & food shopping.

      1. Well, if we don’t get a snowstorm it won’t be because people are talking about it. It will be because the pattern doesn’t support it here. We will see though. Our answer should be apparent in about 3 days or so. 🙂

        I would not be upset at all if today’s 12z Euro solution is close to correct. I have a lot of stuff to pack in in the last couple days before Christmas. 🙂

        1. Get the flashlights ready. You may be packing in the dark once the power goes out in the warm tropical storm force wind gusts! 🙂

  40. Meanwhile, in more immediate happenings, this storm here is pretty cool today. December rain does not bother me, and I’ve been enjoying the car wash and wind-driven rainfall, and general darkness of the day. I know this is against popular opinion, but I’ve never been one to fall into that category all that much anyway. 😉

      1. I did the wreaths last week, which was still later than normal – delayed 1 week by my covid experience.

        1. Yeah it’s been crazy . Went to cemetery in Marshfield & Braintree . My wife is just getting over the Flu which landed her in the emergency room earlier this week

            1. It was bad Vicki , just now getting over it & it lasted one full week , it was type A. Just hoping myself & son do not get it as I have 20 coming for Xmas .

  41. Holiday movie fans…

    One of my recommendations is “Yes Virginia, There Is A Santa Claus”, the live action version, starring Charles Bronson and Richard Thomas. 🙂

      1. Hey at least the GFS is only jumping a few hundred miles one way or the other from run to run. Perfectly understandable at 7-8 days. The Euro jumped 1500 miles west in one run!! I think they are all out to lunch.

  44. Really hate cold rain, and especially in December. But, I do appreciate days like Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

    While winter certainly isn’t slipping away as it hasn’t even officially begun, we haven’t yet had any really cold temperatures. This applies to most of New England, by the way. The lowest temperature thus far was 22F where I live, and that was by far the lowest of the season. Most of the other frost we’ve had at night was light.

    My dream December is cold and sunny, with ice on the ponds so I can do my outdoor skating. We haven’t had this happen very often in the past 10 or so years, other than a brief period in December 2019.

    Not sure I’d want to do this, but it does look thrilling. https://twitter.com/buitengebieden/status/1603834508188450816

    2. I haven’t skated on a pond in ages, I can’t even remember!
      I used to skate so much in Winter. I loved it. Played hockey every chance I got as well.

      Last time I played hockey (rink ice) was 35 years ago. 🙂

      Pond ice? several years prior to that.

    3. You bring fond memories. It has been a long time indeed since skating on ponds was possible. Even north of here. But maybe come January or February you can get out.

    4. They have something similar next to the Chateau Frontenac in Quebec City during the Winter Carnival only you are on actual toboggans. I have never seen one where you slide on bare ice.
      Looks like fun! Where is it?

  47. Mark, I’m not sure where the video was taken.

    I know what you’re referring to – tobaggon run – near the Chateau Frontenac in Quebec City (off to the right of the boardwalk, as I recall). I’ve been there during the winter festival.

    In the public garden the pond freezes over every year, and there’s some skating every year. I skated there in December 2019.

  48. If I heard correctly, on the CBS Evening News, Buffalo is expected to receive 1-3 feet of snow over the weekend due to the usual lake effect.

    Did I hear correctly? Are the Bills playing at home?

  49. 00z ICON with a huge shift back east and a track over NJ. The 12z track was over Chicago.

    I cannot recall the last time I have seen such wild model shifts (1000 miles west then 1000 miles east) from one run to the next for a system that is essentially developing in 5 days. Nuts!

    1. And for 00z op runs, Canadian over the western Great Lakes while the GFS is over Boston.

      Perfect agreement. 😉

  54. It just absolutely refuses to snow in Boston. Coming into work this morning, not so much as a sleet pellet in the face. Just miserable drizzle.

    Oh well. Probably just another bad omen for next Friday. So far that storm is even farther west than this current one.

    1. Well, it’s not related to the next storm. The details of that can’t be known until about 4 days out. Saying a storm is further west that doesn’t exist yet and won’t for a few more days is not really something we can do. Yes it is depicted further west on some runs of some guidance, but that’s it. There are still ensemble members of some guidance that actually take that storm east of here. As us mets always say – don’t talk in absolutes so far in advance. It will often burn you. Am I saying that system’s center can’t pass well west of here? No. It’s certainly possible it does, but it’s also far from a certainty. We’ll start to solidify that track right around Monday-Tuesday.

      The change over to snow showers this morning was expected to be a process from northwest to southeast. That is ongoing now, and also unsteady, as in it can go back and forth. Logan was reporting light snow at 7 a.m., so it has already snowed in Boston, even if it isn’t at the moment.

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