Saturday December 17 2022 Forecast (8:46AM)

73 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 17-21)

The slow process of saying goodbye to our current bout of unsettled weather is underway. This storm was noted for producing plenty of rain and wind for the coastal plain, and a significant snow for the highest elevations of the WHW forecast area (southwestern NH and far north central MA). As we have expected, the colder air is filtering back eastward into the coastal plain where rain showers have becoming mixed with or changed to snow showers. We’ve lost the steadiest and heavier precipitation though, so just minor dustings / coatings of snow will occur with some of these snow showers. The general trend will be for drying, but we’ll hang onto the cloud cover through the day, seeing that break up more tonight. Sunday looks like a chilly but mainly dry day – only the chance of a few passing light snow showers in response to upper level low pressure moving through the region. Then, as we come down the home stretch of autumn toward the winter solstice, which occurs Wednesday at 4:48 p.m., we will be in a chilly but mainly dry weather pattern with high pressure providing plenty of low-angle sun Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday may some intervals of clouds and perhaps a later-day or evening snow shower associated with a passing trough, but this will be a very minor system with no significant impact.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy – rain and snow showers at times until midday favoring southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Highs 35-42. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. A late day snow shower possible. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 22-26)

Likely impact by a storm system later December 22 into December 23 but highly uncertain of storm track and resultant weather here – stay tuned. Generally dry and cold pattern thereafter but may be a minor snow/mix producer right around Christmas Day.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 27-31)

Still a low confidence forecast but overall pattern looks chilly with one or two precipitation chances but overall on the dry side heading down the home stretch of 2022.

73 thoughts on “Saturday December 17 2022 Forecast (8:46AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Did takeout for dinner last night.

    In the process, by the time I had walked back into my house, it looked like I had gone for a swim in the ocean. Wow, was it raining !!!

  3. Sounds like the Gardner, MA superintendent had a tough call yesterday.

    If I read the news story correctly, it was raining up until 6am, then it flipped to snow and at 7am, the roads became snow covered and he had to call school a few minutes before the first classes started.

    Those are always the toughest scenarios.

    1. The marginal situations are indeed the toughest with regard to stuff like that. Yet, most people will say he did the wrong thing, and react based in anger, which is a shame.

    2. Thanks Tom. I was just going to post about that. Buses already started rolling and kids already arrived at school. Some parents upset at the superintendent. I guess Gardner was on the fence between rain vs. snow and SNOW won! 🙂

      Rather fitting it be on a Friday for an unexpected 3-day weekend before Christmas.

      1. I’ve been teaching for 19 years and with subbing, I think it’s 21.

        During that time, I think this has happened twice in Marshfield and there really is nothing one can do about it.

        It’s just that scenario of usually a close rain/snow call and the worst of timing.

        1. I haven’t kept count but I believe it’s happened even in Boston a number of times over the years.

          Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. You can’t make everyone happy these days especially.

  5. Thanks TK.

    Worcester 4.5”, Boston 0.9”(to date)

    Worcester officially received a Trace yesterday but it will be interesting if they got a bit more this morning to “expand” its lead. I’ll check again later today. 😉

  7. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&rh=2022121712&fh=51

    12z NAM, Monday.

    When I see this, it makes me give greater weight to a chance of an inside runner/cutter.

    Why?

    Of course, a piece of the arctic air could break off and head east into Canada.

    But, when I look for big temp contrasts in the image above, it’s not developing btwn southeast Canada and the Gulf Stream, instead, it’s developing btwn central/western Canada and the Gulf of Mexico.

    And so, I think there’s better chances that something initiates further west of us and there’s nothing really heavy and dense sitting to our north to resist it from traveling to our west.

  8. Thanks, TK

    I spoke with my brother in Bow, NH, late last night. He said they had roughly 3-5 of water soaked snow.

    I started following Mike Haddad in Manchester. His forecast Friday night was very close for NH. He stressed the rain snow line would make a difference

  9. Non-weather related question: What local station has tomorrow’s Patriots game? It’s not on CBS (WBZ Ch. 4). The game has been switched to 4:05 pm.

    At least they’re not on prime time for a change.

    2. Fox….FIOS’s agreement with CMG who owns Fox 25 expired Thursday but fortunately they came to a last minute agreement yesterday or there would be a lot of upset Pats fans

  11. Not that it’s correct, but as of hr 120 on 12z GFS, game is over for snowstorm.

    Trof way west, SE ridge, arctic air headed due south to Texas panhandle, flow on east coast turning due south to north. No chance.

      1. I know. 🙂
        Distinctive difference between us chatting about what each run shows and posting it on Twitter like it’s the final word. As I said yesterday I have no issue with looking at run to run changes here because it’s kind of a hobby for people like yourself, Dave, Mark, etc.

        I do it too to be honest and we all know how much stock to put in run to run so we don’t really need reminders here even though we say it a lot it’s just more that we’re just saying it. Maybe somebody from the outside is looking in that will still learn. Haha!!

  14. Tracing backward on the GFS, the upper-level energy that will become the mid-late week storm is currently a shortwave over the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia. Until it moves into an area with any data at all (northern Alaska late Sunday), I wouldn’t trust ANY model solution. In other words, the first model run that I’d even consider putting any stock in would be the 00z runs Sunday night, more likely the 12z runs on Monday.

  18. Thanks TK.

    Mount Snow and Gore Mountain reporting 20″ of new snow this morning, Killington 23″, and Stratton 24″.

    When I went to Stratton last Saturday, they had 22 trails open.
    Now the trail count has ballooned to 68 with all the natural terrain being opened. Check out the five webcams there….the weather did not keep people away. Looks busy!

    https://www.stratton.com/the-mountain/webcams

      1. Just need to cross our fingers for a cooler solution to the late week storm or this will be all gone a week from today. Dewpoints in the 50’s will eat that snow up in about 12 hours. Saw that first hand two years ago.

  19. I am sickened looking at the models this morning for Friday. As modeled right now, we would have a repeat of the Christmas “Grinch” storm from two years ago. Much like this year, the mountains got an epic snowfall the week before that jump started the ski season and everything was incinerated a week later.

    Will the odds of getting a snowstorm in New England are not looking good right now, let’s hope we can at least trend this thing east a little bit, get some cold air damming, whatever….so at least the mountains can preserve some of this snow.

  20. 12z GFS with temps in the low 60’s, dewpoints to 60, winds approaching 70 mph in places, along with torrential downpours and embedded thunderstorms.

    Christmas Eve temps:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_12/D1B90640-99F6-478C-B9BB-8F42A8551845.thumb.png.c792902e0a149823848a092e16b5d458.png

    Christmas Eve winds:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_12/7C9D2EE3-1F03-41BC-A024-87E7AEC8F5F4.png.ea61611d3a0e5987d0737139db69b984.png

    Merry Christmas everyone!!

    Brutal.

    1. Sad part about this is that even though we would be getting no snow, this would still be a very impactful storm as progged by ALL the models right now. High winds and driving rains will result in wind damage and I would assume plenty of power outages as people attend Church, gather with family, etc.

      This is the one thing that has remained constant on all the models regardless of track…this storm looks extremely potent.

      1. It’s highly likely that the intensity of this is being WAY overdone by all guidance. We’ve seen this countless times.

        1. I hope you are correct. The current solutions would pretty much suck anytime of the year, let alone 1-2 days before Christmas when a lot of people are traveling.

            1. It’s actually more potent than 0z, gets down to 966 mb in southern Canada and has the same track through Michigan. Same lovely results here.

    2. Those are 24 hour max temps which actually occur Friday night.

      FWIW, the GFS is forecasting temps in the 20s with snow showers scattered around the region on Christmas Eve daytime / evening.

      1. Yes I just noticed that and was going to clarify. Worst of the winds and precip would still be focused on 12/23 though that is still a very brisk wind for Christmas eve.

  21. As noted above, and carefully traced backward by SAK, the shortwave that eventually kicks off the storm the models are struggling with is currently over the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia. Even good functioning models are not going to make a highly trustable forecast at this point. They may generally have the right idea but we are still over two days away from getting model derived information that is really of any use regarding specifics.

    In the meantime it’s just an entertainment series. 😉 We will all continue to have fun with that for now. 😀

    1. The fun and entertainment of this one is rapidly dwindling for me 🙂 Alas, I have a crapload of wrapping to do and some shopping to finish, so need to get going with that now. I am not even going to bother looking at the Euro and will check back later 🙂

        1. The wind will likely be more potent with a track to the west than an on the coast or east track.

  24. FWIW…..

    -GFS ensemble mean is over the Hudson Valley
    -CMC ensemble mean is over Lake Ontario
    -Euro ensemble mean is very elongated with two clusters….one over Lake Superior and one over the Hudson Valley.

  26. Lake cutters has been an annoying theme thus far this winter. Don’t think we’ve had a low track south and east of us in a very long time. We had a nor’easter in mid August (of all months; and at the time it was in the middle of a drought) as I recall, and one in September, too. Any since then? I don’t believe so.

    I guess we’re left with imagining what snow and ice would be like. Here’s Glasgow: https://twitter.com/Rossmac212/status/1604069049029128192

  27. Boston vs. Worcester update:

    Worcester 5.3”, Boston 1.0” (to date)

    Worcester extended its seasonal lead today with 0.8” snowfall.

      2. BOS/PVD is a more “competitive” snow battle. Last year was a rarity, and anomaly – it’s only happened a few times in all the time we’ve observed weather.

      1. He had a good bat, although I don’t believe he did much this past season. I didn’t keep up much with the team once they fizzled into dead last place. They need to rebuild the lineup.

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