Sunday December 18 2022 Forecast (8:59AM)

95 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 18-22)

Upper level low pressure crosses the region today with a gusty breeze, some clouds, and maybe a few passing snow flurries. Monday and Tuesday will be breezy and chilly days with an air flow out of Canada between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure approaching via the Great Lakes. This high will move over our region with dry, cold, tranquil weather on Wednesday. We’ve been watching a window of time where we are vulnerable to stormy weather on December 22 and 23, and that’s still there. While not set in stone, it’s starting to look like we’ll be looking at a rapidly strengthening low pressure moving into the Great Lakes by later Thursday, and during that day here we’ll see clouds thicken up, along with milder air arriving, so that we are probably looking at a rain event beginning by that night. Still will have to fine-tune some details about this system is we get closer to it.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. A passing snow flurry possible especially this afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 23-27)

Stormy weather on December 23 should be in the form of rain and rain showers with gusty wind and mild air as strong low pressure passes northwest of the region. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day look blustery, cold, and mainly dry, perhaps a passing snow shower at times, behind this system as it exits through eastern Canada. Watching for a quick moving disturbance from Canada with a snow shower or light snow threat by the end of the period with continued chilly late December conditions.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Starting chilly with mostly dry weather, maybe a brief light snow threat from a passing disturbance, then a few hints of a quick moderation in temperature toward the New Year’s Eve / New Year’s Day time frame.

95 thoughts on “Sunday December 18 2022 Forecast (8:59AM)”

  1. Thanks, TK!

    Good morning, WHW friends!

    Happy Hanukkah tonight! Enjoy a night and season of joy and light with family and friends.

    47 minutes to the World Cup final!
    France v. Argentina
    Sunday brunch, Holiday blend coffee and a World Cup final match!

  2. After living in Minnesota with many White Christmases for past 17 years I am all for a “green grass” Christmas this year now that I am along the beautiful southern coast of Massachusetts. With possibility of temps near 60 Friday – seems like a lock. Brutal cold in Upper Midwest

  5. Thanks TK.

    It is now most certainly “set in stone” that we will not have a White Christmas once again this year. We seem to be in a severe drought in that department. It’s been several years, at least. Maybe a decade?

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So, now we are pretty certain that the next system will be the
    Dreaded Cutter. Oh well figures. What else is new.
    We shall see what shakes out down the road a bit, but so far
    I am NOT impressed with our Winter prospects.

  8. Thanks TK
    Philip 2017 had a White Christmas. The system that produced that White Christmas there was some thundersnow in parts of SNE.

    1. But if I recall, the snow didn’t fall until almost mid-morning. By definition, doesn’t the 1 inch on the ground have to occur as of midnight Christmas Day?

  9. Worcester 5.3”, Boston 1.0” (season to date)

    The only reason I am following the Boston vs. Worcester snowfall “rivalry” is the fact that Boston beat Worcester (54.0” – 53.6”) last winter and Boston has never beaten Worcester in snowfall for “consecutive” seasons in weather history. Yes, I know it’s highly unlikely statistically but here’s hope that maybe Boston at least makes it competitive. 🙂

    1. I’ll check the stats later but I believe Boston has only 5, maybe 6 times overall?

      I know, not much of a rivalry. 😉

  10. I have heard if an inch is on the ground at 7AM on Christmas morning it is considered a White Christmas.
    BDL is the leader so far with the reporting stations in SNE with 7.1 inches so far. 6.3 inches with the snowfall a week ago and 0.8 in November. Boston still leads NY in snowfall standings. NYC only a trace so far.

    1. Thanks Jimmy, I didn’t know about that White Christmas stat. That’s still awhile now as it will likely be 5 years without snow on Christmas. Rather “un-Christmas like” in my opinion. 🙁

      At least BOS leads NYC 1-0 to start the season. 🙂

  11. For the baseball standings next season I think it might be a different story who is on top. I love this Yankees starting rotation after they added Carlos Rodon.

  12. Well Mr P you are just full of good cheer today aren’t you? 😉

    I would not consider Boston to be in a severe drought regarding white Christmases. Yes the official definition is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at 12Z. For Boston that would be 7:00 a.m.

    Boston’s long-term white Christmas average remains between 20% and 25%. You get that average by irregularity. It certainly does not mean that Boston has a white Christmas one out of every four or five years all through its historical record. You can have several years where they don’t and several years where they do and clusters of two three or four or whatever. It’s just an irregular thing. When you travel inland to the areas with a much higher percentage you will find them much more frequently. That’s just how it works here. Logan airport sticks out into the water. That is where they measure. The water is still relatively warm through December as it lags the land as it always has.

    In short, nothing new going on here.

    Now looking at some deterministic details I would say Boston’s chance is under their climate average for this year but that is not to say that we couldn’t get a little wave of low pressure, currently not detectable by model guidance. That would drop measurable snow on them by Christmas morning behind that storm system. We’ve seen that happen before.

    And now on a more personal note regarding this subject. I’m not really sure why so much energy is spent worrying whether or not there will be 1 inch of snow or more on the ground at 7:00 a.m. on Christmas morning. That does not make a Christmas better or worse in my opinion. The holiday has always been about something other than the weather occurring for me. Kind of funny, coming from a weather nut. And I openly admit I used to care more about it when I was younger. But when I go back and look at my records, We certainly did not have a white Christmas every year when I was a kid either… But white Christmas or no white Christmas I have always loved this time of year and been a very lucky person being able to celebrate it with people close to me and enjoy traditions of music and food and walks and TV specials and movies, which I have carried on to doing with my son in a big way..

    Blinding blizzard, bitter cold, a halcyon day, overcast, wind driven rain. No matter the weather, Christmas is still Christmas. 🙂 I will never put unnecessary energy into lamenting the weather of that day and the season in general. I just cannot do it. 🙂

    1. Not to reply to myself, but that entire thing was written via voice text while sitting at a standstill in a drive-thru from a place whose Wi-Fi takes over your internet and it almost killed the post. Thankfully I saved it.

      And speaking of saving things, I think I’m going to copy that comment above and post it a few times every December. 😉

  13. Reiterating what I said yesterday – the upper-level energy that will generate the late-week storm is STILL over the Arctic Ocean north of Alaska, and will not be over land until tonight. As such, any model solution before the 12z runs tomorrow is highly suspect at best, and not to be trusted. So no, nothing is “set in stone” just yet, and we are not “pretty certain” that it will be a cutter. It is still WAY too early to make that call.

    1. I want to believe you , but frankly my gut screams cutter, despite what you say. I sincerely hope you are correct.

  14. GEFS ensemble mean going warmer and west
    EPS ensembles kind of sitting steady.
    Pieces of the puzzle are still over the ocean, will wait until tomorrow
    Though I know that we do not have a good percentage of white Xmas along the I95 we had one of the best signals on the models in a long time for it and some of the current parameters are just not allowing it as its diging in the way that is not good for us. Of course like TK said, could have a sneaky little minor to light snow event around Xmas due to the arctic blast Plenty of energy would be around for such an event.
    https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1604504327376207872

  15. Thanks TK.

    12z GFS maintains the cutter theme with a track over Michigan and rains to north of Quebec City. Would be a heck of a blizzard for Chicago east to northern Indiana and up into lower Michigan.

    1. Lol. I am going to stop looking at the models and turn on the Hallmark Channel now after TK’s post above. 🙂

  20. Meanwhile…..

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Honolulu HI
    325 AM HST Sun Dec 18 2022

    …WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
    6 AM HST TUESDAY..

    HIZ028-191600-
    /O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0001.221219T0400Z-221220T1600Z/
    /O.NEW.PHFO.WS.W.0002.221219T0400Z-221220T1600Z/
    Big Island Summits-
    325 AM HST Sun Dec 18 2022

    …WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
    HST TUESDAY…

    * WHAT…Heavy snow. Light snow accumulations tonight will be
    followed by periods of heavy snow developing on Monday. Total
    snow accumulations up to 14 inches. Wind gusts as high as 135
    mph will cause significant blowing and drifting of snow.

    * WHERE…Big Island Summits.

    * WHEN…From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM HST Tuesday.

    * IMPACTS…Travel will quickly become impossible. Blowing snow
    will significantly reduce visibility. Periods of zero visibility
    expected.

    2. Also a chance of thunder with that.
      Let’s stand up there on the summits with 135 MPH wind gusts, zero visibility in pounding snow, wind chills around -10F (gee not too bad, we’ve had worse), oh but also look out for lightning bolts! 😉

  21. Argentina is toying with France in the final. The most one-sided World Cup final since France beat Brazil in 1998. I’m surprised how badly France has played. Their only excuse is the virus that’s been going around the team. They look tired.

    Argentina has put together their best game of the tournament. Excellent first touches, passing, finishing, and defending.

  29. Incredible final. You can see why it’s the world’s game.
    And keep in mind, these guys have no off-season. They’re back to Premier League and other top league games next week.
    Top soccer players have no off season, basically. They play at least 75 games a year. Supremely fit and athletic.

  30. I find it interesting that the 12/25 stats for Boston and much of the northeast TK posted above don’t seem to apply to…Hawaii of all places. 😉

    Yes, I understand it’s for the island “summits” but still… 🙂

    1. Well, let’s be fair here. You’re comparing things that can’t even be compared. Having snow on the summits of Hawaii’s big island is not unusual at all. Having snow in Boston is not unusual at all. But they have vastly different climates for obvious reasons….especially their “slight” elevation difference. 😉

      Don’t make it sound like Boston never has snow for Christmas. 😀 😀 😀 They have a 20-25% chance of 1 inch or more of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. on December 25 over a long period of time. Stats are correct.

      1. Yes, I know Boston has had snow on Christmas before. I just want them more often than I have seen as of late. 🙂

  31. Longshot, enjoy your trip to Buenos Aires!

    Messi is the greatest professional athlete I’ve ever seen play live. Exceptionally gifted, but also such a dominant force. For all the clubs he’s played, but also for his national team.

  34. That was a fun final. I had only watched highlights through the WC tournament, but I watched a good amount of that final as it happened. Great job France! Congrats Argentina! I think the two best teams made it to the final and the best team today won it.

    A lot of people get bent out of shape about settling things on penalty kicks. I don’t. It’s just part of the game.

    1. Call me old school, but I just can’t get into Soccer err Futball.

      Even thought I love the Ted Lasso show, I could never get into soccer. Just couldn’t do it.

  35. Question. I apologize as I’m sure it has been mentioned. But i can’t find the answer. Is the storm later this week still a possibility. We planned to pick up catering on Christmas Eve; but if we can’t get to it, we want a plan B.

  36. I expect 12 inches of Snow this week. In fact, I guarantee it… you see, in the early 90s there was this rapper named Snow who had a hit song called “Informer”. The song was off his double entendre named record “12 Inches of Snow.” So no matter what, be it through awful music or precip, I know what to expect.

  37. For today’s amusement, I have seen my first post on social media declaring winter over. 😉

    Meanwhile, winter begins at 4:48 p.m. on Wednesday December 21 for those of us who live in the real world. 🙂

  38. Interestingly enough, the NWS is currently calling for no rain on Friday. They’re not calling for snow either. They have no precip in their forecast. Not sure I’d go that route at this point…

    Reading their discussion, they seem to want to split it into a Thursday / early Saturday event. Don’t think I agree with it that spread out – assuming the projected scenario is actually correct.

    As noted, we can’t really lock anything in yet until the energy is better sampled, but if it works out the way I am leaning currently, it would be Thursday night for round 1, Friday evening for round 2.

    If any precipitation occurred on Christmas Eve it would be the remains of a Great Lakes snow plume.

    1. Thanks TK. I suspected it was too early. You said a few times we’d know more by Monday so I’ll reask then

      1. A lot more should come into focus tomorrow.
        It’s entirely possible that a solution very similar to that depicted by the guidance is what we will see, but it’s just not scientifically sound to feel confident with it yet. 🙂

    2. You sure about that no rain forecast for Friday from NWS?

      MAZ015-182245-
      Suffolk MA-
      Including the city of Boston
      445 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

      .TODAY…Sunny this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs
      around 40. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
      .TONIGHT…Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds 10 to
      15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
      .MONDAY…Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 15 to 20 mph
      with gusts up to 35 mph.
      .MONDAY NIGHT…Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest
      winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
      .TUESDAY…Sunny. Highs around 40. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
      Gusts up to 30 mph in the morning.
      .TUESDAY NIGHT…Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s.
      .WEDNESDAY…Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s.
      .WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.
      .THURSDAY…Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. Highs
      in the mid 40s.
      .THURSDAY NIGHT…Rain. Not as cool with lows in the upper 30s.
      Temperature rising into the upper 40s after midnight. Chance of
      rain 80 percent.
      .FRIDAY…Rain. Not as cool with highs in the mid 50s. Chance of
      rain 90 percent.
      .FRIDAY NIGHT…Rain with a chance of snow. Cooler with lows in
      the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
      .SATURDAY…Mostly sunny. Much cooler with highs in the mid 30s.

      1. I wish I’d taken a screen shot. BOTH the point & zone forecasts for my area had “cloudy” and no mention of rain whatsoever, and both of them had that for Friday AND Friday night. It had to have been a mistake that was since fixed. I did a double take, twice.

        1. As I watched the few bits I could, I thought of the two decades we had literally on top. Every other team was dealing with growing pains. No matter the outcome, Our turn.

          May I add that ejecting coaching top down might help.

  41. I got one worse for you my Cowboys blowing a second half lead of 27-10 against the Jaguars and lose it in overtime on a pick six.

  42. I just stepped in it. I called the place we were ordering from and mentioned the possibility of a storm but too soon to tell. I asked what we would do if we couldn’t get there. I was told no worries as we don’t pay in advance. Awesome place with great food

    But she and manager when she asked what we would do both said they had not heard about a storm. I assured her it was too early to know and I was just being cautious

  43. Had some snow flurries on my afternoon walk today. Added lovely atmosphere to it.

    I read somewhere there was a chance of a few flurries today. 😉

  44. Haha I found it! I knew I wasn’t out to lunch seeing this…

    Obviously it was a mistake as they corrected it on the next version, but their discussion made it sound like you could have made a case for this being their intention… Here it is (this is Boston – Suffolk but my area had the same mistake).

    Including the city of Boston
    400 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

    .TONIGHT…Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds 10 to
    15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
    .MONDAY…Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 15 to 20 mph
    with gusts up to 35 mph.
    .MONDAY NIGHT…Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest
    winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
    .TUESDAY…Sunny. Highs around 40. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
    Gusts up to 30 mph in the morning.
    .TUESDAY NIGHT…Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest
    winds around 5 mph.
    .WEDNESDAY…Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s.
    .WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.
    .THURSDAY…Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. Highs
    in the mid 40s.
    .THURSDAY NIGHT…Rain. Not as cool with lows in the upper 30s.
    Temperature rising into the upper 40s after midnight. Chance of
    rain 80 percent.
    .FRIDAY…Cloudy. Not as cool with highs in the mid 50s.
    .FRIDAY NIGHT…Mostly cloudy. Cooler with lows in the mid 20s.
    .SATURDAY…Mostly sunny. Much cooler with highs in the mid 30s.
    .SATURDAY NIGHT…Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s.
    .CHRISTMAS DAY…Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s.

  45. I really don’t feel bad for any Pats “fans” who may have turned the game off at halftime. 😉

  46. I’m trying to figure out what is more funny ….

    The final play of the Pats game

    or

    The 12/23 would be blizzard transitioning to a 60F rainstorm all the way to and past the Canadian border.

    Both fairly comical.

    1. The first one. It was a bizarre ending. At least the “blizzard” was only computerized speculation from questionable / poorly performing tools and only hyped by wishcasters and not actual forecasters, and the end result is only a product of the current and upcoming weather pattern. 🙂

      That’s my take on it. 🙂

  47. A lot of GOAT talk is hyperbolic. Not regarding Messi, however. What he has accomplished has never been done by any other professional athlete. It’s an astonishing record:

    10x La Liga
    7x Copa del Rey
    4x Champions League
    7x Spanish Super Cup
    3x UEFA Super Cup
    3x Club World Cup
    21/22 Ligue 1
    2021 Copa America
    7x Ballon D’or

    And now…

    2022 World Cup

    Messi’s individual statistics are out of this world, too. He’s on another planet, in my view, compared to any other sports star.

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