Monday December 19 2022 Forecast (7:36AM)

80 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 19-23)

A northwesterly air flow dominates our weather today and Tuesday between eastern Canadian low pressure and central Canadian high pressure, bringing dry, breezy, and chilly weather. That high will sink southeastward and move across the region Wednesday, also a dry and chilly but more tranquil day as we lose the gusty breeze. Things change as we head later into the week. A complex low pressure system will be set to impact our region. First some lead energy develops an initial rain area along the Mid Atlantic Coast which then heads northward, reaching our region in the evening, but may start as snow/mix with some chilly air trapped in the area. While this is going on another low will take shape and rapidly deepen in the Midwest while heading for the Great Lakes. There are still some details about this system that remain unknown, such as how far west it tracks, which holds a key to how quickly the lingering cool air can be pushed out of our region, as it sometimes happens above us but not at the surface nearly as quickly, if at all, in this set-up. For now, I lean toward a warm front making it through, and Friday being a breezy and very mild day with rain showers, culminating in a rain squall line as a cold front sweeps across the region ahead of the rapidly deepening storm in the Great Lakes Friday evening. As for more precise timing, we’ll have to nail that down later in the week. The system will likely produce some significant and possibly damaging wind gusts.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives, may begin as snow/mix some inland locations. Lows 32-39 evening, likely warming overnight. Wind up to 10 MPH early, shifting to SE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts overnight.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 55-62. Wind SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 24-28)

A blustery, cold Christmas Eve & Christmas Day can be expected in the wake of powerful low pressure moving through eastern Canada. A few snow showers may survive a trip from the Great Lakes into our region. Generally dry and cold weather is expected early to middle portion of next week but watching around December 27 for a potential snow/mix/rain threat.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Not a high confidence forecast, but after a chilly start it may moderate with a rain or snow threat sometime around the beginning of 2023.

80 thoughts on “Monday December 19 2022 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you Tk.

    So the 0z runs came and the 6z runs. same ole same ole for Friday. when the 12z runs come out,I sure don’t expect much of a change.

      1. The blocking must have turned against us this time around and is allowing cutters instead of coastals. I guess the term “blocking” doesn’t automatically mean “snow”.

  3. Thanks TK.

    Still TBD for Worcester but I would say Boston will not see any more “accumulating” snow in 2022. I suppose flakes are always possible.

    No, I don’t believe “winter is over” by any means.

    1. just remember back to 2015. 🙂

      We shall see. But I am not feeling it, that’s for sure. A long way to go and anything can happen.

  5. Thanks TK. Quick question – my daughter is landing in Boston around 11:30 Thursday night. I have told her to watch the weather but wondered if she will arrive before the storm picks up steam on Friday.

    1. I was thinking about just that.
      I was looking at the NAM at 84 hours and I also looked at the Euro, CMS and GFS.

      I think the only way this system is salvaged in any way OR at the least doesn’t destroy the ski industry up North is to have a redevelopment of some sort S&E of SNE. At the very least it would prevent the TORCH from being lit up North and at the best, provide all or most of the precipitation in frozen form up North. As you indicated, I think we are toast in most of SNE, but who knows. 🙂

      It needs to hold the cold in until the occluded front from the primary low sweeps in with cold air. I’d be happy IF we can at least accomplish that.

      If the torch comes in up North, what a bitter disappointment.
      Just not right. Down here, who cares. Sure I’d like a White Christmas, But I have resigned myself to NO White Christmas,
      so a least let’s save the Ski Areas up North.

      Here’s hoping!!!

      1. Agree with you. A torch would be a huge blow to the ski industry.

        Some bugs are still out and about (outside!), which bugs me. While it hasn’t been unusually or crazy mild this December, it also hasn’t been cold at all. Nights in particular have not been cold, with a couple of exceptions. It’s been a bit weird. I’ve only worn my winter coat twice.

      2. My heart goes out to these areas. They have had some good years, yes; but there was a time Christmas break was a given for ski areas. We went every year after Christmas from 1953 to at least late 1960s and there was one year only where we had rain and no skiing. And there was minimal I’d any snowmaking during that time. I do recall a couple of times slopes were closed due to extreme cold.

        As an aside, I also remember many times tucking a blanket under the hood of the car to keep the engine warmer.

      3. Yes my thoughts exactly, or even if it just muted or shortens the warm surge up north it could save the two plus feet of snow that just fell from total incineration.

        Right now the operational models are showing 50s and rains to Quebec in a 15+ hour warm surge in NNE. That would do a number.

      1. Thank you. I went into a lot of detail explaining where the models can (and probably) will be wrong right now, and specifically mentioned a secondary developing near the Mid-Atlantic, because we’ve seen it happen a million times with storms heading into the Great Lakes. A co-worker and I were discussing this very scenario on Saturday as what would likely end up happening, before the models started showing it.

        2. Great writeup SAK, thank you.

          The possible temperature inversion, while it may lock some colder air in at the lower elevations, is still bad news for the higher elevations/ski areas in NNE as they will be subjected to that strong southerly jet aloft. High winds and rapid warmup/snowmelt I would still anticipate in the 2000-4500 foot elevation range.

          Will be interesting to see how things play out with the possible secondary low redevelopment off the SE coast, as well as any other subtle changes in the models over the next 24 hours as the pieces of energy are now ashore in a more sampled area.

      1. Chicago I have no problem with, it’s Hawaii and Japan that screws with me. Boston hasn’t been invited since 2017 and that was a last minute surprise literally if I recall. It was all about nowcasting no less.

        1. Big snowfalls in the mountains of Japan are actually very common. There are several ski resorts there and if you recall the Winter Olympics were held in Nagano several years ago. Japan is essentially an island with mountains surrounded by water so they get some huge storms enhanced by “ocean effect” snow and upsloping.

  9. Thanks TK !

    The 00z op runs even give Cleveland and Detroit some or mostly rain.

    500 mb closing off sharply and further and further west.

  10. I’ve always thought, in New England anyway, our seasons are fairly symmetric.

    In summer, the best sustained heat (and it showed again last summer) is usually mid July to mid August. To have used last June’s most pleasant weather we had, would have led no one to reasonably expect we were going to experience a 6 day heatwave of 95F+ temps later in the summer.

    In most winters, our best sustained snow and cold is January and February.

    So, I don’t really use December’s weather in New England to foretell what is coming in Jan and Feb.

    1. I have noticed in many cases (not all) that when December snows a lot, January and February can be quiet.

      December 2014 was very mild and we all know what happened thereafter in 2015.

  12. Thanks, TK and SAK…

    I am having World Cup withdrawal!

    I keep reaching for my phone to check score updates!!! 🙂

    I got a lot of milage in my lesson plans throughout the last month with that tournament!!! 🙂

  13. A couple other things to watch for…

    *Cold air arriving quickly before the precip ends Friday night – could be good for some minor accumulation and also icy surfaces.

    *Not likely, but quick wave of low pressure on the front with snow for a short time far southeastern New England.

    * Previously mentioned snow showers from Great Lakes over the weekend. Always hard to forecast these for our area.

    1. Actually, I think you’re starting to see the effects of the northern stream system moving into Alaska finally. The GFS and Canadian both took a bit of a jump east on these runs with both the upper and surface lows, and are not as strong as they were on previous runs. They’re also a little faster than before too.

        1. I’m not SAK but if you read the blog, I would gather it could affect the timing and amounts of precip in SNE as well as surface temperatures (staying cooler longer, less duration of mild surge). As far as precip type in Boston, it is an all rain event barring a drastic change in the models over the next 24 hours.

  16. The afternoon runs shifted further east like SAK stated, I am also thinking its weird that the models are not showing a more distinctive surface low development along the front with all that energy. If a more prominent surface low forms off the mid-atlantic, like sak said we could see cooler temps than currently shown on the models at least in Ski country.

    In terms of this up and down weather, its been getting harder and harder for our ground to actually get hard these days. The fact that the ground is not going hard, temperatures swinging back and forth and no snow cover to protect the ground is not good for gardens and the native vegetation. Some of my parent’s plant’s have leave buds on them that have partially opened. WAY TO EARLY the cold that is about to come later this week is going to kill them.

    1. All due to climate change. Leaves on the trees linger on into the first week of December nowadays. Back in the day, by Veteran’s Day most had fallen.

      1. No question about it. Barry and others met quite a while ago, all agreeing our seasons have shifted. It is impossible to not see it since it is right in front of us.

  18. Looking at the 12z Euro, I am definitely seeing a cooler solution for NNE on that run. High pressure in Canada seems to hold more firm, there is some CAD, and the cooler air/mixed precip hangs on longer. The truly mild surge is now confined to less than 12 hours up there, and there is a flip back to some snow at the end as the cold air rushes in. Hopefully a trend in the right direction for the ski areas.

      1. Not in terms of turning it into a snow event, Philip, but the idea is we’re not going to be super warm either, and if we do warm spike here in SNE it’s not going to last that long. NNE even less so.

        SOME parts of SNE can still see snow/mix at the start of the event on Thursday evening, and then the other wildcards are the potential flip to snow for a coating or so right at the end, and post-frontal snow showers into the weekend.

        No, it’s not going to evolve into some classic New England snowstorm, certainly, but there are still some wintry aspects to all of it.

  19. I really don’t think ski country is going to get that warm. And they might get a few inches out of snow showers in some locations this weekend. Not a bad outlook overall.

    This is not a blow torch set-up, especially with the quick evolution and rapid arrival of cold air from the west southwest (yes it’s indirect cold, but it’s still cold).

    1. Yes, it does seem this is not going to be as much a disaster as that Grinch storm two years ago when 40″ new of snow fell at Okemo the week prior and it was all incinerated to bare ground in 24 hours. That was a longer duration event with skyrocketing dewpoints. The quicker this thing moves the better.

      Will definitely be a setback, but they will recover. Hopefully we can now keep the blowtorch away in the long term as we start the New Year. It’s looking mild again in the extended.

      1. Glad to hear and fingers crossed. I always hated skiing on refrozen snow but I suspect there are better grooming techniques. The ski areas went through wayyyyy too many bad years

    1. I never get that feeling, and the reason is not only because I am in holiday season mode, but because of the sun angle. The sun angle in March is SO much higher than it is right now, that I can’t even compare the two, regardless of how much temps/dewpoints/winds may match up. 🙂

    1. Long range forecasts were decent. The wildcard Southeast Ridge has been a player for the East and the -PNA as well. Those were mentioned as potential forecast spoilers for this area.

  22. TK, interested in any changes to your thoughts regarding snow totals for SNE the rest of the year. You had near average snow for Boston (40-50″) but that was predicated on a front loaded December/early January. Seems we have largely missed out on the favorable pattern that set up here in December and the start of January looks mild. If the rest of the winter (late Jan to Feb and March) still goes the way you are thinking, I would think the higher snow totals would be harder to achieve.

    1. Not really. 1) It takes one anomaly to make up a lot of ground. 2) I’d just lean toward the lower side of those ranges.

  23. FWIW and keeping in mind that this is still the GFS, the 18z run while having a somewhat similar track to the 12z run is now showing a slightly faster timing, with the front offshore of SNE by 7PM Friday. This is at least 2 hours faster than the previous run, and yes I know we’re right on the border (day 4 at this point) of really being able to talk about details, it’s at least worth noting to see if anything changes either way with that timing in terms of trends. Once we get close to the event, timing a squall line with potentially strong/damaging winds right around a commute on the Friday before Christmas will be quite crucial.

  24. Boston globe headline and laugh for a day.

    Patriots are not playing like a well coached team.

    The part I could read seems to want to blame the team. Either way…..the coaches from drafting to coaching are pathetic.

    1. I stand corrected. And a reason to always check other sources. It says it’s BBs fault.

      he has always been the problem; and if I ever defended him, I also stand corrected.

  25. I have read SAK’s forecast a few times and it seems to me to forecast less wind given the inversion layer that some are overlooking. Is my interpretation correct and is it a likely outcome? Also, will it have any impact on the amount of precipitation that we get? Trying to finish planning kids’ travel plans, Patriot’s game Saturday and Xmas hoopla. Thanks.

    1. An inversion layer can certainly prevent some wind from reaching the surface, but I’d still be cautious about that, because it’s still pretty likely that when the cold front portion moves through it will produce pretty decent wind everywhere..

  26. So at 12z Friday, the 18z GFS has a 982mb bomb over Lake Michigan. In the next frame at 18z Friday (just 6 hours later), there is a transfer of energy to a new low pressure center of 978mb over Watertown, NY. That is a 500+ mile jump east.

    This was not on the models last night. 18z Icon does something similar.

    I feel (know) we are not done seeing model changes with this system yet.

  27. And what a bizarre setup to have a system so wound up that the cold air wraps around it and comes in from the Southwest. That cold air mass is going to be coming in so fast in a SW to NE direction that it looks like it is going to overtake the back edge of precip and cause a quick change from rain to snow as the front moves through. Could be a very heavy back end thump of snow if this materializes especially in CNE/NNE but possibly even to some extent (albeit briefly) in SNE.

  28. Everyone has about 72 hrs to check the “secureness” of their outdoor decorations.

    That 18z GFS run looked like it had the strongest wind projections yet.

  29. I would expect a High Wind Warning or Wind Advisory posted for SNE for this upcoming storm system. Some power outages a possibility.

  30. Other than lights on trees and bushes, out outdoor decorations are held in with stakes. The ground is not frozen so I’m praying they hold. The angels around the manger are tilted but so far have held. The deer have blown over in the past The garland over our front door has had to be out back up several times but….

    Last year….and we did have a white Christmas here

    https://imgur.com/a/5FHRcuD

  33. Notice on this projection from about a day ago that the lobe of very cold air barely ever touches New England, but does extend to many states (including some Southern ones in the middle of the country). Is this due to the SE ridge? I must say I don’t understand what’s happening. In my experience, if it gets very cold in Minnesota, generally a somewhat mitigated area of Arctic cold reaches us at some point a few days later. This clearly doesn’t happen this time around. https://twitter.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1604684796143161344

    1. Because of the large storm circulation and its location, our cold will come in from the southwest and slightly modified I think would be the explanation, as opposed from the usual different northerly directions.

    1. Yes, but it will likely be limited by wind, because the air will become very dry very quickly with a lot of wind blowing.

      1. Thanks TK. Hope there are more dry spots than icy ones. Eric on his 11:00 newscast mentioned the possibility as well.

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