Tuesday December 20 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)

70 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 20-24)

A brisk northwesterly air flow continues today between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure approaching via the Great Lakes with a bright but chilly and breezy day for us. The high pressure area then moves over our area for a cold, bright and tranquil Wednesday for Winter Solstice (which occurs at 4:48 p.m.). But things change in a big way heading through Thursday and Friday as a rapidly deepening low pressure area moves through the Great Lakes, and its contrast with high pressure moving east of our region will create strong to powerful southeasterly to southerly winds here and a couple periods of rain, including some potential heavy rainfall. Thursday night to Friday evening. It will not likely rain the entire time though as there may very well be a couple dry periods in between bands. The final band will be on a strong cold front and may arrive quickly enough so that the rainfall ends as mixed precipitation or even snow, enough for a brief coating on some surfaces. More threatening is that areas that do not dry out from the wind can freeze over quickly later Friday night as the temperature drops rapidly, so keep that in mind if traveling later at night and early Saturday. Cold and mainly dry weather with blustery conditions can be expected for the weekend – Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. We’ll have to watch for some snow showers that may survive their trip from the Great Lakes, and also a period of somewhat rare ocean-effect snow bands from southwest winds may occur along and near the South Coast Saturday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives, may begin as snow/mix some inland locations. Lows 32-39 evening, likely warming overnight. Wind up to 10 MPH early, shifting to SE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts overnight.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, some possibly heavy. Highs 55-62. Wind SE to S 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH, possibly even higher in some coastal areas and higher elevations.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy early evening with rain showers ending, possibly as snow showers with a brief coating of snow possible. Watch for rapid ice-over of wet surfaces by late evening / overnight. Partly cloudy to mostly clear overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers possible, especially South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 25-29)

Breezy and cold Christmas Day with isolated snow showers possible otherwise dry weather. Generally dry and cold weather is expected through the middle portion of next week though keep an eye out for one possible disturbance with some snow showers.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Low confidence forecast. Indications of moderating temperatures early to mid period, a precipitation threat around the New Year, then a dry/colder finish.

70 thoughts on “Tuesday December 20 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Excellent job on your forecast, but the forecast is pathetic if you get my drift. Knowing that I can’t do anything about the weather, I am finally learning to roll with it and accept whatever comes our way.

    Bring it on!!

  4. Thanks TK.

    Last night, Eric referred to the upcoming storm as a “Grinch” storm since it won’t be bringing us any snow. I like that term. AFAIC only a Grinch would take a 75% opportunity from Boston for a White Christmas every year. 🙂

    Yes, Eric did show a pie chart showing our annual opportunities. Still doesn’t make me feel any better about it. Oh well. 😉

    Also, I had no idea that a southwest wind off the ocean can cause snow showers for the South Coast/Cape. I always thought only an east or northeast wind. I learn something all the time on this blog. Thanks. 🙂

    1. I have seen that before with ocean effect snow with SW wind.
      As TK stated, it is rare as one needs a cold enough air mass in place with that SW wind. Pretty tough to do, but looks like
      this upcoming situation could do it.

    3. It can happen with wind from any direction.
      It’s just not common to have temps cold enough with a southwest wind here.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Did we have ocean effect on South Shore a monthish ago? Or was that just a system running along the coast?

    1. South Shore very recently, with a northeast wind from high pressure to our north

      The South Coast variety with a southwest wind is fairly rare.

      Note: southwest wind lake effect snow in the Great Lakes is very common, but that’s because that area is in a region that sees less modification of cold air and waters that are not quite as warm.

      1. Thanks. I missed the difference here with wind direction. Thank you. The Great Lakes has always fascinated me.

  9. Interesting to watch the models try to determine when the very intense 500 mb low is going to slow down and capture the forward movement of the sfc low. And dramatically intensify it over a very short period of time.

  10. I’m curious what people’s thoughts are regarding this tweet from Judah Cohen:

    “ For weeks I’ve been writing it’ll be hard to sustain #cold weather in Eastern US & Europe if #Siberia turns warm. Siberia is the refrigerator of the Northern Hemisphere & Mother Nature flung the refrigerator door wide open & forgot to close it, big #warm up predicted for Siberia”

    Link to tweet with an image: https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1604850030812499968?s=46&t=lYwAgGt_Img_frCP4sLhfg

      1. Thanks Dr. S! If we can’t sustain cold, we can’t get into a snowy pattern. I guess the endless cutters/runners will continue?

          1. Yes, very true, however, it sure helps, especially when confronted with cutters and inside runners. 🙂 🙂

            As long as it’s not so cold as to suppress everything to the South.

    2. Makes perfect sense to me, however, I had to read it a couple of times and really digest it. I admit at first reading I thought it was a contradiction.

      In general Siberia is very very cold in the Winter.
      He uses and analogy to a refrigerator, meaning SIberia is COLD as long as the refrigerator door remains cold. Open that door and the refrigerator is no longer cold.

      End result, no cold in Siberia, KISS cold GOOD-BYE here.

      Well that’s my take. Sorry if I took anything the wrong way.

      🙂

    3. I think he and other twitter verse mets who constantly advise of snow and cold coming are wrong more often than they are right.

      They are blinded by their love of snow. It adds to much bias to their predictions and often makes them wrong.

  12. https://photos.app.goo.gl/7h5at5MmvVznH8S79

    White Christmas chart for Boston. Got this via NWS via JR via SAK…

    Note: this is BOSTON, not inland.
    There will be zeros in Boston where there was plenty of snow just a few miles away.

    Longest white Christmas drought there sticks out like a site thumb. When I reference the 1980s snow drought – yes, it was real.

      1. Thanks TK.

        Heading to Maine on Thursday until Tuesday and then Outer Banks until 1/3. Hope for good travel weather and blizzards in between.

  13. Thanks, TK:

    Rob Carolan also mentioned the SW wind, ocean effect snows this morning.

    He was funny and also frustrated at some of his clients who were talking about a blizzard here after listening to national forecasts.

    “We don’t live in Chicago!,” Rob said he told one of his local radio clients.

    🙂

    1. Not local – Bloomberg, who apparently were under the impression that a blizzard will cripple this Northeast this weekend followed by the coldest Christmas on record.

      1. I can’t read the article without a subscription. Can you please take a screen shot of the last that is specific.

            1. Then you heard on radio? I’m surprised they don’t listen to you. Or maybe not since corporate enjoys headlines….even media I think of as more respected

    1. Yes, half day, no lunch served, dismissal at 11am.

      June 13th is my new, favorite day of 2023 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Enjoy a well deserved break Captain !!

      1. We’re going to June 20.
        Just focused on getting to Thursday at 2:20 right now!

        You as well, my friend!

  15. Well, I still am very perplexed at the lack of cold this December, especially with the blocking pattern. A northwesterly with all that cold to our northwest ought to be bringing in colder temps, in my humble opinion.

    It’s been very cold across Siberia and across much of Canada and parts of the U.S. But, New England has not really gotten into any of the real cold action, quite frankly. Meh cold at best.

    No ice anywhere near me. That’s unusual. I’ve been running along the Charles for many years. Only twice in the past 15 years – December 2011 and December 2014 – was there NO ice in the Esplanade Lagoon prior to December 20th. This year makes it 3 times in 15 years.

    1. In some ways, it might be a good thing. With the temp swings increasing, too often folks go out onto ice that just can’t hold them.

    2. As I have stated, a blocking pattern does not mean the cold will be here. It can mean the cold will be elsewhere.

      -PNA
      Southeast Ridge

      Those are your culprits. This was my caution on my December forecast back in November – if something was going to break it, this was the reason. It happened.

  19. Thanks TK.

    Following this storm, I’m noticing the models are all developing a wave a low pressure tracking southeast of New England around next Wednesday the 28th. This would be a more wintery solution of us with that track and some cold air in place.

    12z CMC is closest with that feature and scrapes the Cape. The other models have the wave as well but farther offshore.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype&rh=2022122012&fh=198&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Something to monitor down the road.

  20. The window of late December 26 to early December 28 has my attention for a potential widespread snow/mix event.

    The usual cautions apply: This a week and slightly more away. It’s speculation. Don’t read “potential widespread snow/mix event” as “guaranteed big snowstorm”. 🙂 You all know that, but I always write it in case somebody is peeking in. 😉

    1. Scrolled and saw the words “Guaranteed Big Snowstorm” so I’m locking it in, not going to read the rest of the message.

  21. Thanks for the explanation, TK. I appreciate it.

    As a person who looks forward to real cold – especially after so many hot and humid days this past summer, and the two summers before – I’m disappointed thus far. Love the sun today, however.

    1. Well at least it hasn’t been super warm either. 🙂

      I mean this is nothing even remotely close to a firebreathing December like we had in 2001. 🙂

        1. We use plastic water or any kind of clear plastic jugs, cut a U flap about an inch or so above base. Flap lifts up. Fill bottom with sand and stick a candle in sand.

          I tried paper luminaries the first year. They just get wet if any snow or rain and flop in on themselves

  23. Preliminary idea on snowfall for the upcoming system…

    Up to 1 inch or so in the Monadnocks and higher elevations of north central MA at the front end and maybe something similar on the back side with scattered coatings further south and east with the end portion (not the beginning).

      1. Let’s hope it’s not too bad, SSK. Lots going on for a lot of people! December 23 is one of busiest days of the year!

  25. TK – Thanks for sharing those White Christmas stats for Boston. Any chance you could locate stats prior to 1952 as well? I assume they are just as pitiful? 😉

    1. It’s always been about the same.

      When you hear people say “we always had a white Christmas” it’s simply not true, unless you live in a place that literally always has a white Christmas. 🙂

      I’m not sure how east it’ll be to find those stats, but I’ll see what I can do.

      1. Like Labrador City. Always a white Christmas. The downside – well, for most people (but maybe not me) – is ~8 months of winter!

  26. It’s down to 27F in Back Bay. I’m guessing it’s 24F or 25F in JP/Roslindale. So tonight parts of Boston might get into the teens. You don’t know how happy that makes me feel.

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