Wednesday December 21 2022 Forecast (8:14AM)

89 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 21-25)

The winter solstice occurs at 4:48 p.m. today. High pressure area then moves over our area for a cold, bright and tranquil day. You will notice some high cloudiness at times today well in advance of our next storm system. These clouds thicken up tonight into Thursday. Developing and rapidly deepening the low pressure will move through the Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday bringing us a windy rain event which may start with some snowflakes in the higher elevations well to the Northwest of Boston and end as a mix or snow as a strong cold front sweeps through on Friday evening. Strong to damaging winds accompany this event. We will see some minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide due to astronomically high tides combined with strong wind. Areas that do not dry off with wind Friday night can experience a flash freeze with a rapidly dropping temperature. Cold and mainly dry weather with blustery conditions can be expected for the weekend – Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. We’ll have to watch for some snow showers that may survive their trip from the Great Lakes, and also a period of somewhat rare ocean-effect snow bands from southwest winds may occur along and near the South Coast Saturday. Dry weather and less wind is expected Monday with high pressure in control.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives, may begin as snow/mix some inland locations. Lows 32-39 evening, likely warming overnight. Wind up to 10 MPH early, shifting to SE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts overnight.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, some possibly heavy. Highs 55-62. Wind SE to S 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH, possibly even higher in some coastal areas and higher elevations.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy early evening with rain showers ending, possibly as snow showers with a brief coating of snow possible. Watch for rapid ice-over of wet surfaces by late evening / overnight. Partly cloudy to mostly clear overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers possible, especially South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 12-19. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY (CHRISTMAS): Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Highs 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 26-30)

Generally dry and cold weather is expected much of the period. Watching for one wave of low pressure that may bring some snow or mix around December 27.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

Low confidence forecast. Indications of moderating temperatures early to mid period, a precipitation threat around the New Year, then a dry/colder finish.

89 thoughts on “Wednesday December 21 2022 Forecast (8:14AM)”

      1. Agree. I’ve checked batteries and hopefully son in law will make sure we have enough gas for generators. Although I’m not sure they will run the heat pump.

      1. So as far as the south shore goes how concerned should I be in regards to wind damage & power outages. I was going to stop on the way home from work in Quincy & grab a pork roast for Xmas dinner but if we loose power I’m screwed

  8. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2022122112&fh=46&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2022122112&fh=47&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    High tide in Providence is 7:30 am Friday morning and its astronomically very high.

    I don’t think you could match timing wise, the best wind to the highest water any better and that’s not good.

    I guess the surge models are showing moderate flooding along the south coast and I can see why.

  10. 6Z 3KM NAM wind gusts in Knots for 13Z Friday or 8AM

    https://ibb.co/CQ4yH6q

    general 50-60 knots (57-69 mph), some 60-70 (69 – 80 mph)
    and even some 70-80 knots (80-92 mph)!!!!!!!

    And this right at the entrance to Buzzards Bay

  12. Not concerned about the wind at all. How many times do we see this. Big time winds forecasted but never ends up nearly as bad. Kinda like “severe” thunderstorms in the summer. How often do they actually meet severe criteria? I may eat my words later but this is the feeling at the current moment. Grinchy

    2. I totally agree Ace ,BUT being Xmas & everyone’s fridge stacked for Sunday , loss of power could be a disaster.

  13. Hopefully an inversion will happen and those strong wind gusts the forecast guidance is suggesting won’t materialize.

    1. I’m of the mindset that we prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Nothing lost but potentially something gained.

  17. Yes, on a SE wind in an intense cold season inside runner, the wind off of the relatively cold ocean chills the boundary layer, keeping sfc temps a bit cooler, stabilizing the column and letting less wind mix down to the sfc.

    However, with such a precipitous intensification and the models showing some heavy convective elements overlapping a very strong 850 mb jet, that may be enough to offset the cooling SE wind off of the ocean and cause the wind to mix quite efficiently to the surface.

  19. The cold front went through Dillon, MT just before 4:30 this morning. At 4:22am, KDLN was 27 degrees with light snow and south-southwest winds 12 mph. At 4:25am, KDLN was 1 degrees with 1/2 mile visibility in moderate snow and northeast winds at 32mph gusting to 39 mph.

    26 degree drop in 3 minutes.

    They’re currently -17 with a wind chill of -48, and 1/2 mile visibility in moderate snow.

    https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDLN

    1. Pretty dramatic temperature drop.
      How much will ours drop Friday evening? At least 20 degrees for sure. perhaps 25-30???

  20. I am surprised no wind alerts for CT yet. I would expect that to change later today. Certainly looking at the guidance CT should meet wind advisory criteria at the very least.

  21. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml#current

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml#current

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml#forecast

    Knowing that the models are virtually unreliable beyond 3 days, I’m going to try this exercise.

    Very negative AO trending closer to neutral. I take from this less meridional flow, more towards zonal flow. Arctic air retreating closer to arctic circle.

    NAO trending towards somewhat positive. Also lends to increasing chances of progressive flow, as opposed to blocky, meridional flow.

    PNA trending towards slightly positive. Not a big signal for a ridge in the west, but, moreso hinting that any inclement weather is likely to be focused more towards the northern half of the US West coast.

    So, unreliable models beyond day 3, but with these signals for teleconnections, I can see why the models don’t show much cold and snow in the medium long range for the eastern US and I can see the mostly zonal pattern they are projecting.

    1. It’s probably now safe to say that this will NOT be a “front loaded” winter after all. Boston will end up well below normal December snowfall.

      Average = 9.1”
      To date = 1.0”

      1. Snow in the first half to two thirds of January could still do it. Winter starts today. If by January 21 we had appreciable snow, it would be considered front-loaded, assuming the back half was less snowy. We won’t know this for about 3 months.

  22. Channel 5 is calling for winds of 35 to 45 mph inland and estimated rain of approximately 1.5 inches. While I am comfortable with this outlook, I wondered if it was realistic given the wild wind numbers being discussed. Thanks.

  23. Welcome f*cked up weather…anyone with air pressure/joint issues, it’s gonna be a PARTY!
    Remember kiddies do laundry and charge electronics because wind, rain, and a 41 degree drop in temperature…

    1. My 10 year old grand has migraines that seem triggered by pressure changes. Mine always were. She is already fighting one. I hope you are well and your holidays are special

  24. Thanks TK.

    I’m really interested to see how you guys do with wind. Very tough one to gauge. The fact that it’s more a southeast flow than south lends me to think you should take the under. Or at least, that the duration of strong winds won’t be very long. But I think the ranges and messaging that TK has outlined are very much appropriate and the risk of tree damage and power outages should definitely be taken seriously especially considering the cold to follow, and the fact that continued windy conditions as the storm departs will likely slow any restoration efforts.

    I could easily see Blue Hill gusting 75-100mph regardless of how it plays out at lower elevations.

  26. Thanks TK.

    Not much on the horizon for snow threats after this storm although I still think next Wednesday the 28th needs to be monitored with some developing low pressure passing to our southeast around then.

    From there on out, much of the continent is flooded with above normal temperatures towards the New Year into early Jan. as the PV strengthens and the cold air disappears:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_12/eps_T850a_namer_46.png.2773494509c1f89b3d8b445fbf656e8b.png

    Some hope beyond that perhaps as we get into January a bit further?

    Joe Bastardi tweet:

    Remember the polar vortex in 2014. Look at the week after. Now look at the rest of the winter once that was done. Negative EPO/WPO tandem mid Jan on means look out

    https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1605423514693009408?s=20&t=nHIkTyoiForjm2qaDApvYQ

    1. Of course, Bastardi likes to run his mouth but looking at the Euro weeklies there is some support for what he is saying with a -EPO depicted and some troughiness in the East.

      Dave, get your Santa Clause suit out….

          1. I am big enough and heavy enough to pull it off.
            If I grew my beard it would be grey, but not white enough I am afraid. 🙂

    2. Right! Didn’t he also way WATCH OUT for the 2nd half of December???? Seems to me he did just that.
      In short, I DO NOT BELIEVE IT!! 🙂

      1. Well he is talking for a much broader area than just New England. And yes, this pattern did develop and produced overall….some very cold shots nationwide this month and we will have had three significant winter storms in the last week and a half that have produced somewhere in the Northeast.

    1. Well, winter certainly isn’t over. It begins today after all. But December has kind of been a dud in SNE thus far. We’ve had some beautiful days like today, to be sure. But it’s been a cutter train with no end in sight.

    1. Yikes and yikes again. Looks as if my friends in York might be in for a ride along with our South shore friends. That purple area on the elbow of the cape is interesting.

  30. An alert for city folks (don’t think this happens much in the suburbs or in rural areas), My brother sent me a holiday gift – 4 bottles of wine from “Wine Country” – and it was stolen. It was left outside the front door yesterday and someone took it. I just heard from a neighbor a few doors down that his neighbor had a package stolen 2 days ago. Similar circumstances. `Tis the season for so-called porch pirates. Well in this case there’s no porch involved. Just packages being nicked from right outside the front door.

  32. Certainly an interesting cold front coming through.

    The wild oscillations in temperature from Friday to New Year’s are going to make our heads spin. From the 50s on Friday to the 20s on Saturday and Sunday. Then back up to the 50s on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.

    The cold really retreats by the way. As someone pointed out the real cold exits practically exits the entire continent of North America. It will return at some point in January. Perhaps. But it wouldn’t surprise me if we have above-normal temperatures the entire first half of January, if not longer. By the way, a similar pattern is emerging across much of Europe. Someone mentioned the frigid cold dissipating across Siberia as a factor. Well, it the real cold is doing a disappearing act. While it won’t get balmy there temperatures in most of Siberia will be well above normal the last week of this year and possibly way above normal the first week of January.

  34. I know I asked this the other day, but I want to check again about my daughter’s flight arriving at 1130pm from DC. The forecast looks like it will be pouring then but wind may still be relatively light. Does it still look good? Thanks.

  35. Just went & bought two pork roasts & plenty of Egg nog as I’m really concerned about power loss down here . I can always put them on the porch Saturday if indeed we do loose it , I got wood after work in Halifax. After tomorrow I’m off until January 3.

    1. I’m freezing bags of ice in freezer and have checked batteries. I don’t think it will be close to as windy in here as it will be down your way but this way I’m prepared for rest of winter

      2. This is why storms right on the door of Christmas sucks as if we get power outages Around different areas in NE it wrecks peoples holidays & the electric workers are taking away from there families ( all of there vacation time. For Christmas was canceled because of this storm .

        1. I love snow. That’s a given. And I know we have absolutely no control over Mother Nature. AND I love a white Christmas. But the one time I have not ever wished for a white Christmas is right around of the day. We always have plans B, C, D, etc. but not everyone can. As great as snow is, for me nothing is more important than family

  37. Short range guidance, especially HRRR, is speeding things up a bit. Now brings the cold front through by mid afternoon Friday with a very rapid temperature drop and bands of snow showers Friday evening with some minor accumulation in spots.

      1. I still think the roads will dry off very quickly and the impact will be fairly minimal, overall. There may be a few areas that see a coating & some slippery roads but even that may be mitigated by gusty winds blowing any snow off to the roadsides etc.

        2. Thanks TK. My wife has a doctor’s appt at 1:20 at BI in Boston on Friday. We are hoping to get back before that temperature drop.

  38. TK – With things now speeding up, does this mean rain will be ending mid-afternoon Friday with the frontal passage as well?

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