Thursday December 22 2022 Forecast (7:50AM)

78 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 22-26)

On this first full day of winter, we look at the details of an upcoming storm. First we see clouds advance and thicken up today ahead of the system. Low pressure tracks into and through the Great Lakes while rapidly deepening through Friday. Between that and a strengthening high off to our northeast and east we will see a very strong pressure gradient. This is going to allow the wind to become strong in our region with the passage of this system. Two main bouts of precipitation will occur. The first one will take place with the system’s warm front, rain for most of the region from this evening to about mid morning Friday, when most of the expected 1 to 2 inches of rain will fall. A few areas may see amounts greater than 2 inches, while under 1 may occur on parts of Cape Cod. The strongest wind gusts are looking like they will take place from about 4 a.m. to about 10 a.m., when gusts of 45 to 65 MPH are possible, strongest being in eastern MA and RI coastal areas and higher elevations. This timing does reduce the chance of wind-driven coastal flooding as the high tide time is later in the day Friday, when we’ll be experiencing a lull in the strongest wind, and then a burst of wind from the southwest as the cold front moves through with a band of rain squalls. Once that goes by, we experience a rapid temperature drop from west to east. Thankfully, the continued wind and rapid drying of the air should help many surfaces dry off before they would have frozen up. But any puddles or areas that manage to remain wet will become icy rather rapidly during Friday evening. In addition, snow showers in the area behind the cold front may cause a small accumulation in some areas, which can add to the slippery conditions. One of our more dramatic temperature drops we’ve had in a while will take place – a matter of up to 40 degrees or so in just a couple hour’s time. This sets us up for a blustery and cold Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with a strong westerly air flow behind the departing storm which will be moving through eastern Canada. Saturday’s wind will be strongest, and Sunday’s will diminish slightly. Both days may see a few isolated snow showers surviving a trip from the Great Lakes, and on Saturday, the South Coast may pick up a bit of accumulating ocean-effect snow with a southwesterly wind – not too often a direction associated with ocean-effect snow in this area. By Monday, high pressure will bring cold but more tranquil weather to the region.

TODAY: Early limited sun, then cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arrives southwest to northeast, heavy at times overnight. Slight chance of thunderstorms after 3 a.m. Temperatures rising to 45-52. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH evening, SE 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH overnight, strongest coast.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain with embedded heavier rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms through mid morning, a lull, then a rain squall likely from southwest to northeast during the first half of the afternoon. Minor coastal flooding possible. Highs 53-60 occurring morning-midday, with a rapid drop beginning mid afternoon from southwest to northeast. Wind SE 20-35 MPH with gusts 45-65 MPH, strongest in higher elevations and coastal areas of eastern MA and RI, through mid morning, then diminishing slightly, then shifting to SW 15-35 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with snow showers possible – minor accumulation may occur. Rapid icing over of any wet surfaces. Partly cloudy to clear overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind SW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered snow showers possible, especially South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 12-19. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY (CHRISTMAS): Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Highs 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 27-31)

Current indications are for a quiet home stretch of 2022 with high pressure in control, starting with chilly weather followed by a moderating trend as high pressure shifts more to the south and east of New England with time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 1-5)

As 2023 arrives, watching the first couple days for a possible storm system bringing a rain threat with mild weather, then a return to dry weather and a more seasonable chill thereafter.

78 thoughts on “Thursday December 22 2022 Forecast (7:50AM)”

  1. Thanks Tk , I am very , very concerned with loosing power & if this does happen it will be just awful .

  2. Thanks TK. I appreciate you taking time to write the blog and answer questions especially during this busy time of year.

  3. I rarely complain about the weather, but it is looking grim for our far away visitors arriving for Christmas. One flight already cancelled, and waiting to hear if others face the same fate.

  6. I’m thinking, more and more, we might lose our half day in Marshfield tomorrow.

    Worst projected winds during bus pickup time and even with only minor coastal flooding, that impacts many bus routes during the early dismissal time.

    Humbug !!!!!

    1. Tom I’m really concerned regarding this potential wind event . Ground is unfrozen & will be very wet & if the wind does indeed reach full potential I think we are looking at a lot of trees down throughout the area & with the wind potential lasting through Saturday any power restoration Cannot take place until these winds decreases. Saturday if you do not have power will be a very , very good night

  12. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=850wh&rh=2022122212&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Everyone is aware of the morning wind potential.

    The other time (closer to SE Mass and Cape) is tomorrow evening. Cold air sharply arriving, which is MUCH more unstable than mild/warm air.

    Low level 850 mb jet is “only” 55-60 kts over SE Mass, but major cold air advection and some pressure rise could mix most of that down to the sfc for a secondary wind max tomorrow evening.

  13. Thanks, TK!

    Any chance of thunder at FROPA? Would we see the strongest winds at that time?

    Kids leave here today at 11:30. Teacher day till 2:20. Then break till January 3!!! Our school committee decided to give us tomorrow off when they voted on the 22-23 calendar last spring.

    2. Uxbridge and sutton both have Friday off. Our here, at least, I’m told the union and school admin set the calendar. The SC only approves and rarely changes it. I always liked the day. But can see why it is good now but not so good in June

  17. Tom, not sure I understand how the weather can cause you to lose your half day tomorrow. Wouldn’t school be possibly canceled if anything? Just curious.

    1. Exactly 🙂

      If school gets cancelled, the 1/2 day gets cancelled and we lose it.

      That would turn a 1/2 day June 13th into a full day AND make June 14th a 1/2 day. Double whammy !!!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. If it pans out for sure . Weather will definitely impact many , many families if this pans out & especially those with no generators. They have canceled everyone’s vacation

    2. National grid was here yesterday for an ongoing problem we have had. He said they are all gearing up for what could happen. He did say rain is much easier than snow when and if power outages occur

  20. An Eric Fisher tweet this morning, in which he describes a sounding for tomorrow morning, with an inversion, is encouraging.

    An inversion means warm above cooler, which keeps the column more stable and helps prevent the strong winds above us from mixing down to where we live.

    2. I hope so . I know I’m a really nervous person but I have 20 people coming Sunday & if I have no power I guess Christmas will be canceled as I’m all electric.

      1. I know there is nothing that can be done but it Stinks. For them and their families as well as the folks who treat our roads.

        And ya know those great benefits these type of companies used to have? My nephew has worked for decades at a similar NH company. When it sold and reorged, they lost a good portion of those benefits, including health insurance.

        I say corporate get its butts out there and work as well as lose vacation.

  26. Thanks, TK.

    19 of us will be driving back from west-central Maine tomorrow and/or Saturday. Do you have any advice on the best timing for that?

    Thanks very much.

  27. Thank you, TK.

    The Canada geese are skating on the Esplanade Lagoon. It’s a very thin layer of ice, but enough to support geese and ducks.

  31. JPD .. all of your messages went to moderation due to a typo in the email. I approved them just now.

  33. In all my years observing of weather I’ve not seen a weather map like I did tonight. Talk about a glancing blow. Sure, we’ll get to the to the upper teens in Boston with this Arctic blast, but dozens of states in the Lower 48, including many well to our south and west, will get colder than Eastern Massachusetts.

    It is truly round-about (a circuitous route and that’s an understatement) to see how the blast impacts us in SNE, eventually, from the southwest. Modification is the operative word. Nashville, for example, is (it’s snowing there now) and will be considerably colder than Boston through Sunday morning. I’m telling you that does not happen very often. Sure you may get one day of an `inverted’ temperature profile, but not 3 or 4 in a row.

  34. I’m more concerned with the wind potential there now than I was this time yesterday. By and large a non-factor for most of tonight. But it could be a double whammy tomorrow. First round of big wind possible as the main round of rain with embedded convective elements exits near and after sunrise. This is lower confidence to me because the mixing potential is more uncertain and it’ll depend more on those convective bursts. Then probably a couple hour’s lull before the cold front hits, then another round of big wind early afternoon. That looks higher confidence.

    Like with a lot of short range things, I like the HRRR for wind gusts in these situations. It illustrates what I’m talking about.

    TK’s wind ranges look very reasonable to me. Most locations will likely gust in excess of 50 mph, and in many cases for several hours. There will definitely be some outages, and the vast area affected (stretched crews) and the continued breezy conditions into the weekend will make restoration slow.

    For Blue Hill Observatory, I’d set the over/under gust number at 85 mph.

    1. can”t even here it here. looking out the window, I see trees moving, but not bad at all. I’d say gusting into the 30s. Certainly NOT 50s.

      1. Lots of wind here at work (along Huntington Ave.). I can hear it howling like crazy.

        Just getting light out also.

        1. I keep looking out and I am just not seeing it at all.
          Sure there is wind, but NOT really strong wind.

          right now, it isn’t even into the 20s. Just a nice breeze. 🙂

  38. Logan is gusting to 53. Haven’t seen that here 6 miles away. 🙂
    If It ever did here, I didn’t hear it or wasn’t looking out at that moment.

  40. Crazy wind here and those higher “gusts” are awfully long for what I think of as a gust. Sounds like a very long freight train running down the street

    1. I guess I am just missing out. Fine with me as I certainly don’t want to lose power. Looking out some more. Just ordinary wind. NOTHING special to say the least. 🙂

      1. If you’re not getting the big winds now, you’ll get it this evening with the arctic front as that’s expected to mean business as well.

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