Friday December 23 2022 Forecast (8:50AM)

149 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)

The long-advertised storm is in progress, and behaving as expected with no surprises thrown at us. Expect some coastal flooding and additional wind damage with potential power outages especially in RI and eastern MA to the NH Seacoast region where wind gusts are strongest through mid morning, with coastal flooding issues through the late morning high tide cycle. The lull is on the way and then we get one or two more rounds of rain squalls in the area this afternoon as the cold front extending from rapidly deepening low pressure in the Great Lakes passes by. As the low lifts into eastern Canada through tonight, an arctic boundary will pass by and may produce some snow showers and even a brief snow squall in some areas. While we miss a widespread flash freeze due to the wind’s ability to dry many surfaces before temperatures fall rapidly below freezing, we still will have icy patches and also some scattered coatings of snow which can also briefly slick up some surfaces. But the ongoing wind and much drier air should sublimate much of the ice into morning – but use caution regardless. Wind chill becomes the deal for Saturday, and while most of the region is dry with just a slight chance of a passing snow flurry, the South Coast will see some ocean-effect snow which likely delivers a small accumulation. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day continue to be generally dry and quite cold, though the wind will start to settle down moving through Christmas Day and any lingering ocean effect snow showers will push away from the South Coast, leaving only the slightest chance of a snow flurry from Great Lakes snow shower remnants. High pressure brings dry and chilly weather Monday, and a weak disturbance may produce a few snow showers Tuesday as it moves through from west to east.

TODAY: Overcast morning with rain and embedded heavier rain showers with a slight chance of thunder, diminishing from southwest to northeast. Mostly cloudy midday and early afternoon with isolated showers and even a break of sun possible. Then heavier clouds and 1 or 2 rounds of moderate to heavy rain showers moving through from southwest to northeast through mid afternoon, again a slight chance of thunder. Clouds may break for a glimpse of sun, especially near and west of I-95, prior to sunset. Snow showers are possible central MA, southwestern NH, and eastern CT late day. Highs 53-60 this morning, falling to the 40s this afternoon. Wind SE 15-35 MPH, gusts 40+ MPH inland, 50+ MPH coastal areas, diminishing for a while, then shifting to SW at similar speeds but a shorter period of strong gusts through mid afternoon.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with snow showers possible – minor accumulation may occur. Rapid icing over of any wet surfaces. Partly cloudy overnight with additional snow showers developing South Coast. Lows 12-19. Wind SW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered snow showers possible, especially South Coast. Snow accumulation of up to 2 inches island and up to 1 inch South Coast. Highs 20-27. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill around 10.

SATURDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers, but additional scattered snow showers in the South Coast region. Lows 12-19. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

SUNDAY (CHRISTMAS): Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Quiet and cold middle of next week followed by moderation in temperature as we approach the change of year. May see wet weather to greet 2023, based on current timing and a more progressive Pacific-driven pattern evolving.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)

May start with a bit of wet weather then drier and a cool down followed by moderation again and potential unsettled weather by the end of the period. Far too soon for any detail, but the overall pattern looks somewhat benign for early January.

149 thoughts on “Friday December 23 2022 Forecast (8:50AM)”

  1. Here at WH in Woburn we lost power for several seconds about 6:30 a.m. and it’s been back and stable since. Wind which was right as advertised has settled down as we approach 9 a.m., right on schedule.

  4. Thank you, TK.

    And thank you for your observation that the set-up for the Arctic intrusion and ensuing cold spell impacting, say, Missouri or Tennessee, more than Massachusetts (much colder and snow instead of rain), was something you saw more often in the 1970s. I don’t remember it, at least not to this degree (eg, Nashville considerably colder than Boston for a 3 to 4 day period in winter). But, you’re an excellent observer, and I believe what you’re saying.

    As far as this storm is concerned, I’ve only gotten 0.52 inch of rain (is my gauge broken?). Overnight the rain didn’t get very heavy here in Back Bay. Wind was also not particularly fierce. My guess is that it has gusted between 40 and 45mph at times. But that’s not major wind in my book.

    I hope that the wind didn’t impact others in a negative way. Losing power is not only a nuisance, it’s awful in winter.

    1. I concur.

      My first post this morning was “Where’s the Beef?” 🙂

      Watch me lose power when the front comes through. 🙂

  6. Wunder station nearby says 2.14 inches. My Gauge blew over at 1.24.

    Daughter in uxbridge had trampoline life up and then set itself down as if didn’t think going anywhere was safe. It has been there for years and never moved. Her cameras picked it up

  10. Thanks TK.

    Boston Public Schools were already scheduled to close today. Their break starts today. Good that no decision had to be made.

  11. Morning : so far so good here on this part of the south shore . The wind is whipping but I believe we had an event here ( wind ) a couple of weeks ago , maybe that was worse I think . I’m Heading into Marshfield now and will be Able to get a better look on how things look , it is pretty windy . I have the heat cranking now incase we loose power because I know if it goes out , it’s probably for awhile. Hope everyone here keeps power & stays safe . Day # 1 of 11 days off .

    1. Good news. ENJOY your 11 days off! At least it looks like it will be SNOW free for you. I hope looks are NOT deceiving for you.

      Be careful driving around.

  12. Just had the biggest gust so far since I have been up which was about 6:20 or so.

    I heard this one and looked out. This one likely topped 40 mph, but NOT 50, I don’t think. Perhaps it did, but I don’t think so.

  13. The two stations in my neighborhood show an average 2.2″ of rain.

    Mt Washington had gusts of 150 mph at 7:50am and 8:10am.

  16. I would think that gust had to be close to 65-70mph to do that damage. The thing is were not out of the woods yet if you read Ryan Hanrahan’s tweet I posted earlier.

    1. I was just going to ask what type of precip is up there. When we have these cutters well to our west, does their precipitation stay frozen? I’ve always wondered.

  21. TK – I know there is another bout of wind later this afternoon. Do you think this will be comparable to this morning? How long do you think it will last? Thanks .

    1. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2022122312&fh=6&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      2pm today, can almost see a “lull” in the wind.

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2022122312&fh=9&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      5pm today, can see more colors even inland and definitely along the coast.

      I’d think there might be a gust line right along/just behind the front and then blustery for a few hrs while the temps fall and the cold pours in.

      Some areas might see more consistent wind late afternoon than during the more individual bursts this morning.

      3-6 pm in particular ???????

      1. Will wind be higher on the coast? Kind of looked that way to me but not sure if I had right time and color. I am in Natick. Thanks.

    2. On the regional scale, less.

      On the local scale, some places could experience stronger gusts than they say earlier.

  26. For the 27 to 29th period we just can not get the two pieces of energy to phase, if we could get that, someone on the east coast could get something but the ridge out west looks to break down to fast.

  27. Thanks, TK.

    Sun was out briefly here in Sudbury awhile ago now it’s cloudy and like Vicki said, clouds are racing by. They are moving south to north. Wind is considerably down (now, anyway). Radar seems to show rain moving south to north but if you look further west they seem to rotate back west to east. Probably the arctic front. We lost a few small branches down in our yard during the night. It’s raining lightly now.

    2. Im smiling. I ever look at clouds without thinking of you. I knew you’d be watching Also. I hope all is well. Merry Christmas !!

      1. Thank you, Vicki! Everything is ok and enjoying our Christmas tree w/all the lights and all the decorations while listening to Christmas music after supper each night. All that is missing is some snow, but what can you do. Hope you and your family have a wonderful and Merry Christmas!

  28. Thanks TK.

    The New Jersey coast saw its worst flooding since Sandy this morning. In addition to the continued wind, the flash freeze will be the next big shoe to drop where it hasn’t already.

    This all speaks to something I mentioned a week or more ago: the stage was set for a major/historic event here, even if you personally are not seeing the worst of it, which many in SNE aren’t. But from an overall impact perspective, this may be the most impactful mid-latitude cyclone for the CONUS since the 93 Superstorm.

  29. If this event took place near Nantucket, the term “White Christmas” would have been the biggest understatement in weather history around here. Perhaps would have made the Blizzard of 78 seem like a brief “snow squall” in comparison.

    Up until TK posted Boston’s white Christmases (or lack thereof) over the past 70 years, I had no idea of such an abysmal record. Oh well. 😉

    Not to mention that the 1980s were “0-for”! 🙁

  30. there was two blizzards of 1978, one in the areas being impacted by this storm, while the other was the I95 (our area)… Maybe in February we get our big storm. I do think at some point this year we get our big storm. Unfortunately, I think it happens well after I am gone from Mass and back at St. Thomas the only place that is under US control that has never had snow. (Despite what some of the locals think)

      1. And I own the local one.

        Also, there were THREE Blizzards in 1978, all in a 3-week span. Everyone forgets about the 1st one – January 20-21, 1978. Boston set it’s all-time 24-hour snowfall record with that storm (broken 17 days later) when 21″ fell at Logan. Bob Ryan, who was one of the meteorologists on Channel 5 at the time (before his long career in Washington), came on air the next day and proclaimed “we may never see a storm like this around here ever again”.

    1. This is the cold front section approaching. Not really weird, but more behaving as it was forecast to. 🙂

  33. Had some blue sky visible in the warm sector lull here in my area.

    Cold frontal rains here now – will take a little while to move through in several bands.

  34. Thanks TK.

    1.64″ in the rain gauge here and the temperature has started to drop. Down to 47 now from 55 earlier.

    Winds were strongest here around and just after daybreak. We are in a lull now. Surprisingly, school was not cancelled in Coventry today which like Tom I am happy about since it was a scheduled 11AM early release day to begin with. That said however, the drive into school this morning was interesting to say the least. Lots of branches down in the roads, and a few trees down and resting on power lines. Many parts of the town lost power. Surprised with all the other nearby school cancellations and power outages they stayed open.

  35. We are leaving in about an hour to drive down to Belmont NY for the Islanders game tonight. I had gotten tickets for this game a few weeks ago before I knew the storm was coming. Hoping the interstates will be OK with no flash freeze. My hope is the winds will be strong enough to dry the roads before the temps crash too hard!

  36. INSANE in Buffalo right now:

    Heavy snow and blowing snow
    Visibility zero
    Temp +12F and dropping
    Wind chill -13F
    Winds SW at 43 gusting to 69

    NWS Buffalo talking up to 30 consecutive hours of blizzard conditions!

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Buffalo NY
    956 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

    NYZ001-002-010-011-085-232300-
    /O.CON.KBUF.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-221225T1200Z/
    Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Southern Erie-
    Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia,
    Orchard Park, and Springville
    956 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

    …BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY…

    * WHAT…Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
    2 to 3 feet with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting
    as high as 65 to 75 mph today and tonight. Blizzard conditions
    will last into Saturday night. Wind chills as cold as 10 to 20
    below zero.

    * WHERE…Niagara, Orleans, Erie, and Genesee counties.

    * WHEN…Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

    * IMPACTS…Travel will be extremely difficult to impossible at
    times. Widespread blowing snow will significantly reduce
    visibility. Very strong winds could cause extensive tree
    damage and numerous power outages. The bitter wind chills as low as 10 to 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed
    skin in as little as 30 minutes.

    1. And they are going to 2 to 4 FEET of snow and 60 mph winds in Watertown. Keep in mind Watertown already experienced a 57″ snowstorm back in late November. Epic snow winter shaping up for them.

    2. Unlike us, even cutters bring them snow. I could envy them but way, way, way too much at once. If Boston had that type of snow on a seasonal basis, its public transit system (MBTA) would be even more crippled than it already is. No thanks! 😉

  37. Killington actually received 7″ of snow last night and Stratton got 4″. Hoping that mutes the damage from this brief warmup and period of heavy rain. A burst of snow at the end should give them a few more inches. Perhaps the net loss in snowpack will not be as bad as I had feared though they are probably going to need a few days to get the lifts de-iced and trails chopped up and groomed after the temperature plunge and flash freeze.

  39. 12z GFS closer to fusing those two pieces of energy offshore on Tuesday/Wednesday. It needs more work though as Matt noted above but wouldnt be surprised to see some mid-week snow showers in SNE at a minimum.

  40. Mark I saw a tweet from weatherwilly mentioning what you just said.
    FYI…we are not there yet but the GFS trends for middle of next week have improved last 24hrs in terms of aligning the western ridge and northern and southern shortwave placement to be within striking distance of a phase..keeping an eye on this

  41. Lost power here in andover from around 5:30 this morning until about 1:30. 2400 customers in this outage. Yard is covered in dead branches blown down from the trees. Luckily it’s warm out so the house temp barely dropped.

  42. We are getting the rain part now . I am not hyping this as it is absolutely pouring like I’ve never seen before coming down sideways

  44. So, I assessed the damage on my run and it was minimal, thankfully. But, I did get absolutely soaked through to the skin. It’s still balmy, however, so I didn’t get cold. Rain gauge now says 1.12 inch. We got the heaviest downpours about an hour ago.

    I must say I am detesting the pattern of all rain for Boston thus far this winter and in so many other places in our nation, snow. The lack of real cold bothers me, too. Colleagues from Nashville (single digits tonight, lots of snow already), St. Louis (close to 0F tonight, they’ve had snow and will have more on Monday), Columbus (going well below 0F tonight; lots of snow), Little Rock, all writing about the snow and truly frigid temperatures.

    1. Nantucket may have snow this weekend as well, or all places.

      A white Christmas for Nantucket, bare ground for Boston.

      2. “Sound effect snow” on a cold SW wind may bring parts of SE CT a white christmas this year as well. Extremely rare setup.

  47. From Ryan Hanrahan

    quite unusual to have snow falling in western Connecticut and a Severe Thunderstorm Warning in eastern Connecticut… but it’s a weird storm!

  52. Dropped to 50F where I am. A 5 degree drop in 2 hours. This is not January 1978; well here in Boston anyway.

  53. Phil… most cutters do not bring Buffalo snow. Most of them bring mix or rain there. Of course it also depends on the specific set-up. This specific system, having arctic air wrapping right into it, and being further east, brings them a combo of synoptic and lake effect snow for over 24 hours, hence what’s about to happen there.

    There are very few things that are so clear cut.

  54. Pouring once again here. Rain gauge at 1.37 inches for the event and steadily rising. Temperature down to 48F. Quick 2 degree drop in the last 15 minutes.

    1. I can safely say that Boston is no longer in a drought. One thing I keep noticing is how green everything is. It hasn’t been cold and it has rained quite a bit. So it looks like the Netherlands does in winter: Green.

      1. They’ve been classified out of drought for a couple months already.

        As of last update, the only drought left is Essex County and nearby southeastern NH.

    1. I’m watching the flag across the street. Wind has no clue which direction to go. Strongest from SSE but then flips to SE

  63. Thanks, TK!

    43º with 0.93″ in the gauge.

    SILs just texted that downtown Middleborough is without power. Went off at 5 pm.

    The Norton Common (across from Wheaton College) band stand was destroyed overnight in strong gusts.

    Remembering increible winds 28 years ago tonight in 1994.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_1994_nor%27easter

    A reported wind gust of 88 mph in Walpole. This was probably the worst, non-hurricane windstorm in my lifetime.

    Seven souls (five children) were killed in a North Attleboro house fire that night.

    2. I remember that night and Fire well. I was 11 at the time and living in North Attleboro. Such a tragic loss of life

  65. I went to college in Nashville from 1978-1982.
    I am a native of Massachusetts, yet, the coldest day of my life was “Cold Sunday”, January 17, 1982 in Nashville.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_Sunday

    The wind chill was around -35º at daybreak.

    I remember that the Cincinnati Bengals had a home, playoff game in such weather.

  66. With two very busy days coming up, I want to send y’all, my WHW friends, the joys and blessings of Christmas now. If celebrating, please have a happy, special and healthy weekend with family and friends! 🙂

  68. The center of the storm is just crossing the Canadian border now at 972 millibars and made deepen another couple as it is now rapidly occluding which means that it will not really have the chance to deepen any further.

    As most meteorologists would have known, this is a good several millibars above the model forecasts which are pretty much always overdone.

    Not taking anything away from the actual event, just throwing out some meteorology and statistics here.

  70. Wind is now the strongest it’s been as it’s like a roaring train coming through , this is Damaging wind .

  71. Just sat out for a bit. Wind dried deck nicely. It truly sounds like an airplane Landing. We have Christmas snow flakes

    Roads are bring treated.

  75. I have to admit it’s kind of fun to observe storms like we used to have in the 1970s. Today’s system reminded me very much of January 9 & 26 1978.

    1. I’m considerably older than you, and yet I have “zero” memory of those dates in 1978, probably because they were rain events which (and still does) interest me very little. 😉

      Considering all the snow we had that year, it’s hard to believe that there were ANY rain events of note.

      The 1970s were a fairly snowy decade if I recall correctly. Christmas 1975 is an excellent example! I was in a Sunday School Christmas pageant and it had to be postponed until after Christmas. 🙂

      1. 1960s – snowy.
        1970s – average but variable.
        1980s – snow drought. Limited storms, a few big ones.
        1990s-2010s – snowiest 30 year period on record.

        1. Yes, I’ll go along with that. The 2020s are starting off just a teeny bit above normal. The decade is still young. 🙂

      1. Thanks 🙂

        Couple yards that are bowled shaped and typically flood, sure enough have a nice ice rink in them this morning.

        And lots of surfers out there enjoying the big swells.

  79. Hints of eastern Canada high pressure around New Years from the 00z GFS.

    The reasonable outlook from this far out is very mild, BUT …. wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being a lot chillier/colder in the low levels if the models are underplaying high pressure in eastern Canada to our north.

    2. One tv met this morning hinting at a mild, rainy New Year’s weekend. I think we’re still going to have to wait awhile for widespread snow.

      There’s always good ole MLK Weekend for an opportunity. 😉

      1. I’ve actually been hinting at the mild and possibly wet start to the new year for a few days now. Still am. But that doesn’t mean we have to wait until mid January to see any snow. 🙂

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