Tuesday December 27 2022 Forecast (7:38AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)

The final 5 days of 2022 are covered in this first section of the blog and we’ll have a fairly quiet pattern during this stretch of time. The main feature will be a gradual warming trend as high pressure becomes established off the East Coast. Several other things will be going on – none of them major. First, clouds start today as a disturbance move through the region, but its departure will allow for sun to follow the clouds. A clipper low will track north of our region early to midday Wednesday with more cloudiness, but will keep an area of snow and snow showers to our north (delivering some accumulation to the mountains). Fair weather is expected otherwise through Friday and into Saturday, but clouds will advance into the region on Saturday ahead of a frontal boundary. I cannot rule out some rain shower activity in the region before Saturday is over, but at the moment I expect this to hold off for most areas until at least sometime after dark. They may be a factor for those out and about to celebrate the coming of the new year. Will fine-tune as we get closer.

TODAY: A cloudy start, then slow clearing. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds return overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible. Highs 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)

Low pressure moving through the region is expected to provide a wet and mild start to 2023, followed by fair and slightly cooler weather, then another disturbance with mild and rain showery weather around January 4, exiting quickly thereafter in a progressive pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)

Watching the January 6-8 window for potential unsettled weather which can be in any form from rain to ice to snow as we’ll be near the border of mild air along the East Coast and colder air from Canada. Drier, seasonably chilly weather follows.

60 thoughts on “Tuesday December 27 2022 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.
    So When Does Winter begin? around 1/15 or so? Or do we wait even longer?

    Oh wait, it has been winter for 6 days, hasn’t it? NOT in my book.
    in my book we have yet to experience Winter around here.
    I don’t care if it got down to 12 in my back yard previously. That’s nothing. It has NOT been Winter here and I don’t expect it for some time. 🙂

    1. Unfortunately nearly 30 dead from this storm now near Buffalo and the airport is STILL closed. A storm for the ages even for them.

    1. We’ll see, I am not sold yet but it does look like we will start to be in the game again for some winter precip chances starting around 1/8-1/9 and beyond.

      1. I’d rather have had a stocking full of coal then the crap weather and dry frozen brown lawn you delivered to me this Christmas!

  19. Thanks, TK.

    While I’m disappointed in the total lack of snow around here, I do feel very much like today and every day since Friday has been very wintry. Also truly beautiful. After having lived in a place that essentially doesn’t see the sun between November and March – just lots of gray skies – I absolutely love blue skies, sun, and cold. It may be my favorite winter weather, even more than a snowstorm.

  20. To give you an idea of how depressing weather can be, take a look at this forecast for the Netherlands. See below. Rain and wind every day for the foreseeable future. Temps in the 40s to upper 50s, which it often is in ANY season (even the 50s in summer is fairly typical). Notice how the wind direction hardly ever changes. It’s a prevailing and predominant southwesterly. https://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/weer/verwachtingen

    There are many more places on earth without distinct 4 seasons than there are with distinct 4 seasons. We’re truly lucky.

  22. What irritates is to see that we’ll likely have a stretch of nearly 10 days (!) without the temperature going below freezing at night, at least in Boston. In late December/early January that is really disappointing. In summer when I hope and pray it’ll cool off – have some days in the low 70s – it rarely if ever does. In fact, summers tend to just drag on and on and are relentless – few if any breaks from heat and humidity. But in winter we often get these long periods of thaw.

    I am not at all sold on winter’s return in mid January. The Dutch mets say there’s only a small chance of that happening. While they do hint it may happen, they’re saying the chance is only 10-20%. They expect the winter to be unseasonably mild for the foreseeable future – weeks on end – across most of Europe and portions of North America (including our region).

  23. My feeling is that the American Mets are doing a whole lot of wishful thinking. I hope not, but that is my fear. They want it so badly, they go looking for it wherever they can find a glimmer of hope and then report it as fact. NOT talking about mets here, who would NEVER do that. 🙂

  24. Hey Dave, don’t tempt me with that song idea. I just might write one. 😉

    Actually, right now I am working on a song for the album I am making with my son (to be released on 8-4-2023).

    F&S / A Finesse
    “Halcyon” is the song title.

    1. Awesome!
      Let us know when that baby is out.

      In the meantime, every time I see a cutter coming,
      I will mention The Lakes Cutter Blues. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. The album will be available on Spotify when it’s released. 🙂

        It may be lead by a single that has 14 words in the song title. 😉 hahaha!

        1. Haha that’s something we could do. 🙂

          And if there is one thing that’s going to be apparent on our album .. it’s variety.

          The songs on this range across 100 years of influence, and very potently from jazz / new age to industrial / metal and everything in between. 🙂

            1. There’s only one instrumental on this particular album – the middle song of 9, which runs nearly 20 minutes. The 4 songs on either side of that are more conventional length tunes with lyrics / vocals. We both sing on it. Some together, some solo.

              Instrumentation is mostly electronic, but also some piano & live drums will be used.

              This remains our only released song so far, from 2020, which I’ve posted before, and it’s an electronic instrumental except for the thunder in the song which is from the thunderstorm in which my house was struck by lightning (not in the song), and the birds at the end which were recorded in the back yard at 4:30 a.m. … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjafhU56ZOU

              We have also recorded another stand alone unreleased single called “Unending” in which I am the vocalist. Eventually that song will find the light of day. 😉

  25. General feeling on the weather after looking at updated guidance…

    Well, not much change from what I said above.

    Milder trend as we know heading toward 2022’s end, and into the first day or so of 2023. Once we get a low pressure system by us we do cool down a bit, not too cold, but then we sit on a zone vulnerable to a couple more disturbances over the first week or 8 days of the new year. The final one may end up with frozen stuff to contend with as we find ourselves in a temporarily better spot, potentially, to have that happen.

    No big rush back to deep winter yet as some of the things we need for that are just not lined up yet.

    A reload of cold air in Siberia will take place. Where it goes from there is a question. I’ve seen some indications that the initial thrust of any of that into North America may target the West instead of the East, at least initially. But don’t take that as “we’re never going to get cold again this winter”. We will.

    And don’t anyone dare write off snow threats. We’ve been over that enough over the last dozen years that you do not write off winter as a snow lover until sometime around or after the vernal equinox. That’s just how it’s been and how it’s always been. 🙂

  26. A reason for a more sober-minded approach – more in tune with TK, by the way – in the Netherlands is that most of the Dutch meteorologists are salaried employees of state TV and radio or the Dutch meteorological institute (government-funded) . So, also the ones on TV and online. There are a few exceptions as there is some commercial TV now. But, in the Netherlands, people often say “we don’t trust the commercial TV weather folks.” Not that they’re bad people, but they need to lure you in with hype and sensationalism. Not so with the KNMI or NOS mets. They’re just meteorologists who state the facts and only the facts. They can be rather boring in their presentation style, to be sure. But, they never overhype anything (even when some hype might actually be called for!).

    By the way, they also believe there will be a reload of sorts of Siberian cold at some point. But in order for that to impact the Netherlands (and us to a certain degree, too) other factors have to be in place.

    1. I really dislike the media’s approach here in the USA. 🙁

      I feel for the people who have to “do what the boss says” or they’ll find someone else who will. Many of them are good at doing it and still getting the message across properly, but it’s not easy.

      1. Sadly, that is corporate America across the board. In my father in laws day, employer to employee ratio at Goodyear was around 25:1. Trickle up, it is several hundred to one. Money truly rules.

        I am proud that our Mets and those I follow around the country stay true to themselves.

        1. Indeed on all counts.

          I still say we have some of the best mets here right in this market and in the New England area in general.

  27. Agree with TK and Vicki on New England, and the Boston area in particular, having excellent meteorologists. Unlike, say, the weather channel, the local mets do a good job straddling the need – for commercial purposes – to present the weather in an entertaining way, with a mostly fact-based narrative.

    My favorite style is Tim Kelley, who I don’t see anymore on TV. He really enjoys the weather and presents forecasts in an upbeat way.

    Mish Michaels – God rest her soul – was great at this, too.

    Bruce Schwoegler, too. I may be misspelling his name. RIP, Bruce.

    This is from Tim Kelley’s LinkedIn profile: As a Cape Cod native, with family history going back centuries on Nantucket and eastern Massachusetts, New England Weather is in my blood. My Dad fished the weirs off Chatham, my mom watched her brother fly with Amelia Earhart in Quincy.
    My interests span a spectrum from cultural and climate history, to geology and a love for gardeninhg, birds, and clouds. I like to keep track of global affairs. I am a true old school journalist (though I now blog too). Since becoming the first on air talent hired at New England Cable News in 1992, I maintain a hand written daily weather/life journal. If you or your children were born in New England since 1992, I can tell you the weather that day.

    1. Tim was let go by NECN which I think was a huge mistake. That’s the only thing I’ll say on that.

      1. And yet, based on the CDC outlook we should still be well into the midsts of an above normal temperature regime.

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