Wednesday December 28 2022 Forecast (7:18AM)

63 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Today is transition day as high pressure slips off the East Coast and a clipper system travels to our north. We’ll see lots of clouds and slightly milder air. Thursday and Friday will be fair and mild late December days with high pressure firmly established off the US East Coast. As we approach the time to flip the calendar, it will turn unsettled over the weekend that takes place. Clouds will dominate Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. There is some question as to how much rain will make it into the region that day. I will include the chance of passing rain showers for now, holding off much of the rainfall until later at night, possibly before midnight, and into a portion of the first day of 2023 before low pressure pulls a frontal boundary to our east and drier air arrives. Some fine-tuning will be needed for the weekend (New Year’s Eve / New Year’s Day) forecast.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible. Highs 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers possible during the evening. Rain likely overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts by late in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)

During the first several days of the new year we will sit near a boundary between mild air to the south and east and cooler to colder air to our north and northwest, leaving us vulnerable to a couple unsettled weather systems. It’s too early to really try timing the unsettled weather precisely, but eyeing January 4 and 6 as higher potentials.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)

A similar pattern to what’s expected in the 6-10 day period continues to keep us in the zone for a couple of precipitation events with variable temperatures, averaging near to above normal.

63 thoughts on “Wednesday December 28 2022 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    On the latest runs, it looks like our snow threat for the 1/6-1/7 time frame wants to head inside and make it a rain event. Still time, but I am NOT liking the trends.

    1. Thanks Vicki. You’re welcome. Boston has never received more snow than Worcester in “consecutive” seasons. It’s not very likely but you never know until this winter plays itself out.

      Like in football, games are played on the field, not on paper.

      1. Also, Eric and I had back and forth conversation about it during last winter. Boston had a nice lead in snowfall for awhile. 🙂

  6. Thanks, TK.

    For what it’s worth, Dutch meteorologists continue to predict a rather long – several weeks – period of above to well above normal temperatures across most of Europe and portions of North America (including our region).

    I’ll be traveling to the Netherlands for 6 days in early January for work. My first time back to Holland in nearly 10 years. I’ll be sure to let you know what the weather is like there. But, quite frankly, I can already tell you what it will be: Gray skies, 40s, occasional light rain showers or drizzle.

  11. If I may be totally honest, I’m “rooting” for the mild, less snowy pattern.

    Woods Hill HQ is having 48 windows and 4 doors replaced starting soon…

  12. Thanks TK!

    The Pacific jet over the next 2+ weeks is pretty incredible. Basically an unbroken west-east line of 150 kt+ of upper level flow all the way from China to the US West Coast, and for many days on end. Firehose pattern for the West. Not even a -PNA look, the pattern is too zonal. But a flood of Pacific air over the entire CONUS. I would be quite skeptical of notable snow chances in the East until that breaks, which it may not until mid January or later. While you can sneak in a snow event in pretty much any pattern this time of year, there are many failure modes when the Pacific is this active.

    1. Thanks WxW! Will Buffalo continue with the lake effect snow machine as well? Is that part of the overall pattern you speak of?

      1. Nope, this pattern will mean the end of the cold west/northwest flow that is needed for lake effect, so that machine will turn off for quite some time. They’ll finally be able to start working towards recovery.

        However, the warmer pattern will also help keep the Lakes ice-free, which leaves the door open for more lake effect later in the season if a colder pattern redevelops.

  15. I think the people of Buffalo would be very happy if they did not see another flake for the rest of this winter.

    1. Beautiful!!! Love it. Considerably more snow up on the mountain
      some 3,000 feet above the city level. 🙂

      thank you!

  17. While the stretch of weather ahead this time of year isn’t unprecedented, with lows NOT reaching freezing for (possibly) 10 consecutive days beginning tomorrow it is going to be a quite unusually long period of spring weather in winter. You will see some snow drops and other flowers popping up. Probably not blooming, though that might happen, too. I think next Wednesday’s temps across Massachusetts will be record-breaking. I think it’ll overshoot and rise well into the mid to upper 60s. Also, unlike last year when the Charles did freeze over in Boston in January, I do not think that will happen this year at all this winter.. And that, folks, has never happened during 20 years of living in the city of Boston. Even in 2012 the Charles froze over from bank to bank in mid January.

    Of course it can and will get seasonably cold again, say, by late January or February, but by then it’ll be too late for solid ice to form over the Charles from bank to bank. Sun angle plays a very important role in this regard.

    1. I agree that most is not unprecedented. I do, however, believe that when we look outside of our area and focus on worldwide, we are in trouble and need to start taking this seriously.

  18. WxW thank you. I remember that Pacific flow pattern being a killer of snow patterns going back through my earlier decades of learning about what drives the weather. 🙂

    I did not foresee this and my winter forecast is unravelling badly because of it, but as stated about, that’s just fine with me. Better than bitter blasts while there are holes in the wall every day for about 2 weeks. 🙂

  19. Nothing to add, weather-wise, at the moment. WxWatcher basically covered it. Pacific Pacific Pacific. It’s all about that for a while. 🙂

    Bye-bye TK’s winter forecast. Ah well, did pretty well 3 out of the last 4 years. Not this time. 🙂 NOTE: I am NOT calling winter off, but my December & first half of January forecast of colder with most of our snow is TOAST – burnt toast. 🙂

    1. Hmmm,funny about my Snow Fall guess. I’ll bet anything that my low guess is still too high. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Mother Nature (Or whatever you would like to call it) always has the last laugh.

      Gotta love it.

        1. I am certainly well aware of that. I’ll look on the bright side….I’ll save money on the heating bill. The river water won’t be as cold, so fishing season may be able to start earlier than usual. Who knows.

          I’ll just try to relax and chill for a few weeks and then see what develops. 🙂

    2. It’s all about all the players and you certainly said there were some unknowns that were wildcards and could change things. You are a great forecaster and we all appreciate you!

    3. Thanks TK. And same with my thoughts on winter. I was expecting more in the way of sustained cold and snow versus the past 2 years. My other prediction has been a later end to the cold/snow season as La Nina weakens, which could still happen, but La Nina is holding pretty tough.

      To be fair, the recent cold blast was pretty spectacular, even if not really centered on New England. And the fact that SNE came away with little snow from that pattern to me just seems like bad luck. Probably 90 out of 100 times you’d have gotten at least one widespread snow event with such a pattern. But the Pacific has killed its staying power and now gets to dominate for awhile. I do still think there’ll be good wintry opportunities down the road, but realistically the odds now tilt towards a below normal snowfall season for SNE. Sun angle season will be here before we know it…

        1. Yes it is. But it’s a good example of elevation being a bigger player than latitude, like Hawaii’s mountaintop snow blast shortly before Christmas. 🙂

  21. TK, your forecasts are great, and your explanations excellent. The very long cutter train with no caboose in sight – even with Greenland blocking – played a major part in upending your early winter prediction. And no-one could have predicted that. I’ve never seen so many cutters in a row.

    By the way, most of the nation has seen above normal snowfall the first part of winter. Not just Western NY. From Tennessee to Texas, Montana to Wisconsin, Ohio to Missouri, all have seen above normal snowfall and below to well below normal temperatures. New England just isn’t in the sweet spot. Nor is the Mid Atlantic region.

    1. Well we’ve had several of those for sure, but we had 2 or 3 storms also pass south of us during that time as well, but when that happened we didn’t quite line things up very well, as far as snow lovers are concerned.

  22. What never seems to fail to materialize is a tail end to winter that is either cold like last year in late March, or snowy like in previous years in March. I don’t expect this year to be any different.

    1. Well, Boston has been milder than normal by 3, 3, and 2 degrees, respectively, during the last 3 years in March, so at least they haven’t been that cold.

  25. CPC continues the mild regime through January 11th.

    MLK Weekend is good for snow or frozen precipitation around here some years. We’ll see. 😉

    If not, maybe February will be our turn.

    I would say it’s looking more and more like a BACK-loaded winter? Oops!

      1. I really like how your talking tonight Tk , it’s unusual talk but as old salty says me hit the like button !! Like 20 times

  26. Hopefully some good thunderstorm days in 2023 to make up for what is not looking promising at the moment for big snow amounts this winter.

  28. I won’t be losing much sleep this winter with what appears to be not a lot of winter storms to track.

      1. True.

        But I’m losing hope with each passing week. I’m fine with a total dud winter if we get a cool summer with temperatures that rarely crack 80F. But I KNOW that won’t happen. While I like Boston weather generally, my frustration is that summers are relentless in terms of heat and humidity, while winters are hit or miss in terms of what I like. I can do without the miss parts, like the coming 3 weeks. But I know it will reduce people’s heating bills and help TK with his home maintenance activities.

        By the way, did anyone guess 1 inch as Boston’s total snow amount this year? While it’s very unlikely to wind up being 1 inch, wouldn’t that be something if we got no more snow?

        1. Let us hope Boston doesn’t get into this territory for least snowfall:

          1. 9.0” = 1936-37
          2. 9.3” = 2011-12
          3. 12.7” = 1979-80
          4. 14.9” = 1994-95
          5. 15.1” = 2001-02

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