Thursday December 29 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)

75 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

The predominant pattern is now driven by a strong Pacific jet stream coming into and across the US and high pressure off the US East Coast. This will continue as we count down the final days of 2022 and begin 2023. Fair and mild weather is the story for today and Friday, and then we go unsettled just in time to ring in the new year, with the potential for some rainfall to dampen travel and outdoor activities for New Year’s Eve, and a pretty wet start at least for New Year’s Day. Still working on the timing of this and will detail it a little more precisely over the next couple updates… After that system passes, fair weather returns to round out the 5-day period.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible. Highs 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers possible during the evening. Rain likely overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts by late in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)

During this period we will sit near a boundary between mild air to the south and east and cooler to colder air to our north and northwest, leaving us vulnerable to a couple unsettled weather systems. It’s too early to really try timing the unsettled weather precisely, as well as predicting the precipitation type, but odds favor rain for anything earlier in the period and the frozen potential is a little higher later in the period as I believe the trend will be colder.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)

A similar pattern to what’s expected in the 6-10 day period continues to keep us in the zone for a couple of precipitation events with variable temperatures, averaging near to above normal.

75 thoughts on “Thursday December 29 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)”

    1. That solution is entirely possible. We can get significant snowfalls in a mild pattern. All you need it is cold enough during the system, and this is not a blow torch pattern really. It’s a very mild one, but cold air is not that far away, nor is it impossible to manufacture some if it happens at the right time. 🙂

  6. Tk,
    Would we categorize this Pacific flow as the Pineapple Express?
    And could we also categorize it as a zonal flow ie mostly West to East flow?

    I do remember growing up having this Zonal Flow with occasional little southward dips in it allowing some colder air to leak into
    NE. So, I guess what I am saying and confirming what you have said. all isn’t necessarily lost when it comes to snow. IT still
    can happen. Does NOT mean it will, but it could.

    Will be an interesting wait.

    Meantime, I’ll be at the beach. 🙂

  7. GFS has been going back and forth between snow and no snow in that Jan 6th -7th time period.
    I do remember the February blizzard of 2006 which produced 12-24 inches came in a mild pattern. Most of that snow was gone in a couple days.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    This is a very mild stretch in my book. Beginning last night (it got to 34F) it is unlikely the temperature will go below freezing for 9 or 10 straight days in Boston and most of coastal Massachusetts.

    I know opinions can differ on this. But, it is most unusual at this time of year to have such a sustained period of 40s, 50s, and even 60s (with night time lows in the mid to upper 40s for several days in a row!). I’m certainly aware that this does occur from time to time. I’m also definitely not blaming it on global warming. It’s simply a pattern we’re in. And, I know that we usually periodically have occasional mild to warm days in late December/January. But to have a long consecutive stretch like this at this point in the winter season is an anomalous.

  11. The disappearing act of Siberian cold is in full force. It was VERY cold in Siberia for several weeks. This impacted many regions west of Siberia, including Ukraine. Well, from images and videos of heavy fighting in the Donbas it’s apparent that the cold has not only abated, the snow is completely gone from areas that got a ton of it in mid December and it’s getting very muddy in the forests.

    In the fighting itself the gloves are off, both figuratively and literally (due to warm-up).

  13. The BIG storm from the 6Z GFS is gone on the 12Z run, replaced by a WIMPY one a few days earlier. Now there’s a surprise!!!!

  15. Thanks TK.

    The 1/6-1/8 weekend is a watch period and we will leave it at that for now. Still 8+ days out and the models are going to keep doing their windshield washer thing.

    1. 12z GFS also close (but a bit late) with a coastal storm on 1/10 and has an MLK weekend snow event as well. Pattern still looks better to me after we get past the next 8 days.

    1. Mid winter is still several weeks away, so I don’t agree with him on the description. 🙂

      Doesn’t mean he’s wrong. He’s going by the meteorological winter calendar (Dec – Feb) while I tend to go more astronomical, so mid point of winter to me is Feb 2 with mid winter being about 2 weeks before and 2 weeks after. 🙂

        1. I think it depends on the person. I observe both, but when it comes to sensible weather for each season, meteorological “seasons” don’t really work. If anything, they should contain the majority of days of a particular astronomical seasons. So based on that, they should really be April-June as Spring, July-September as Summer, October-December as Autumn, and January-March as winter. That would put us much closer to having the weather match the season. 🙂

          But society and science isn’t gonna go for that. 😉

    2. Also, I think they may only have a 4 day stretch with a miss on Monday, then another 3 or 4 day stretch after that. 🙂

    1. Yikes!!!

      Buffalo and that entire area has a LOT of massive flooding to go through upcoming, unfortunately. Starting with the NYE rain event plus very mild temps. All that snowmelt will have no place to go.

      1. Well with modestly mild air and not much rain they should have no big issues with flooding. Most of that snow is air.

    2. That picture was photoshopped by the way but it looks really cool 🙂 I think that was taken from somewhere in the Tahoe area.

  20. Today was a day I had a lot of questions from people over my messengers about upcoming pattern changes that were all prompted by weenies finding ONE snowstorm on any model they could find it on, posting it on their pages, and hyping it to the max. My advice to them all: Stick with meteorologists. We’re better at actually telling the weather, and far more honest.

    I saw one who has decided that NOAA is not telling the truth about La Nina because California is wet and they can’t be wet in a La Nina, only El Nino. WRONG! 🙂 They can be quite wet in La Nina set-ups when other factors allow it – like is happening now.

    Outlook for here: NO big changes again.
    I think Boston will be 50+ for FOUR days, then stay in the 40s Monday, just in time for the Winter Classic, which with the low sun angle should keep the ice “ok”, not perfect, but not a liquid pond either. After that another 3 or so days of 50+ (Tuesday-Thursday next week) before that streak ends.

    Teleconnections are somewhat against really long sustained warm anomalies, and are more modest looking. We’ll have some nice mild weather in there, but no blowtorch that goes on and on.

    But we will lack visits from the arctic until we can get rid of the PAC jet.

    1. Thanks, TK.

      I still think this is a very long consecutive stretch of mild weather for THIS PARTICULAR time of year. Snow drops and other flowers will appear by next Thursday, at least in south-facing spots. They may not bloom, but some may. I also think blossoms on some trees will come out, too. One or two days of mild – even 60s – doesn’t alter nature, and is commonplace in winter. But a week or more of consecutive days really does. We saw this in December 2015 or 2016 – can’t recall which year. Cherry blossoms appeared on the Esplanade. And that very mild period was shorter-lived than this one will be.

      1. The anomalous warmth isn’t just here. It’ll be historically warm – break records on perhaps as many as 3 or 4 consecutive days – in parts of the UK, Belgium, and the Netherlands. The Dutch mets forecast lows that will not go below 50F on 2 or possibly 3 nights in a row, and that this is very unusual for this time of year (actually almost any time of year in Holland, except mid June to mid August). One met on this evening’s forecast indicated that snow drops would appear by next week (about 5 weeks early) – so when I’m there – but would not bloom yet.

        1. I have a friend over there who will be happy. She’s been freezing.

          This reminds me in some ways (though not the same exact pattern) is the Dec 1989 to Jan 1990 turn-around.

      2. Yes, it’s going to be a bit long as dictated by the pattern, for sure.

        I think records temps may be quite limited – just fairly sustained mildness for a while.

        I really wish I could move this to the week of January 9 for the windows. 😉

  21. Our run of area sunrises and sunsets that have been great to view continues. I think this is 5 in a row?

    1. It has been magnificent. Really nice. I tend to get up early and do my run around sunrise, and then at sunset I like to pause what I’m doing just to marvel at the views. We’ve had a glorious stretch.

  22. A sad day in both the sports and fashion world.

    There are certain sports legends who you think will live forever. Pelé is one of them. Alas, we’re all mortal. And now Pelé has passed away. Edson Arantes do Nascimento, who we all refer to as Pelé, is perhaps the greatest team sport superstar the world has ever known.

    Punk fashion icon Vivienne Westwood has died at the age of 81.
    https://twitter.com/RoughTrade/status/1608576942889996289?

  23. Mark, I have a curious question that may be impossible for you to answer. And perhaps another person familiar with NY has an answer. My son in law mentioned some areas that receive high amounts of snow have ski mobiles (I never know what to call them) as part of their first responder network. I wonder if Buffalo and other lake effect areas do this. Thank you !!

      1. Yes, Tug Hill Plateau as well. There is a huge network of snowmobile trails in that area and the police use them!

    2. FWIW and not that I trust it, but the GFS has 4 days at Boston of 50+ early in the month and then nothing after that through January 14.

      The GEM has 5 of them through January 7.
      The ECMWF has 2 of them through January 7.

      1. There could be some overshooting. Ground will be soft and completely ice and snow free pretty much everywhere in SNE. On sunny days that may allow for a really spring-like feel in January.

        By the way, good call on the comparison to December 1989/January 1990. I remember it well. It was cold across much of Europe in most of December. Then it got mild to very mild in late December right through January. In January 1990 the mildness was accompanied by tremendous wind and rain storms. I mean hurricane force. This storm – Cyclone Daria – was absolutely epic. Hurricane force winds uprooted hundreds of large trees in a park near my apartment in Amsterdam. The most violent winds I’ve ever experienced. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burns%27_Day_Storm

        1. Cyclone Daria’s lowest pressure was 949 mbar (28 inHg) and was estimated near Edinburgh at around 4pm on January 25th. After hitting the United Kingdom, the storm tracked rapidly east towards Denmark and caused major damage and 30 deaths in the Netherlands and Belgium.
          The strongest SUSTAINED winds recorded were between 70 and 75mph.

      1. It is does run hot, I’d bet Pete is aware. But I just checked and right now Norwood is lower than surrounding areas

      3. Norwood’s thermo is ok. They sit in a region that tends to have a greater temperature range, based on geography.

  28. From my casual observation of all the locales Norwood tends to have the greatest differential between day and nighttime temps in the Greater Boston area. So, cooler or colder at night and warmer or hotter during the day.

    60F tomorrow wouldn’t surprise me at all in a place like Norwood or Sharon. And there may be a few more of those days, going forward the next 7 to 10 days. In fact, I think mid to even upper 60s are a real possibility on Wednesday in some places. By then the ground will be soft and `warmed’ up.

    1. The temperature records are going to be demolished across the Netherlands this weekend. Previous record highs of 60F will be replaced by new records of 63F/64F; on consecutive days. Keep in mind, the Netherlands has a different climate from ours. It has a limited range in winter. Doesn’t get very cold – especially coastal areas – or very mild. So, reaching 17 to 18C as is expected is uncharted territory (lows at night in the low 50s; also unheard of in modern times).

  30. Just arrived at my mothers house in Amsterdam, NY and there is still about 80% snowcover here.

    We are heading up to Gore skiing tomorrow where their trail count has actually been increasing as the week has gone on. Snow cover and depth is good from the snowstorm two weeks ago, the issue has been the flash freeze from last Friday and subsequent cold temps have kept some of the natural trails too icy to open, until now.

  32. Boston’s record high temps for the first 5 days of January…

    70, 66, 64, 64, 63. Not really to challenge any of these, except one will be “in the ballpark” on January 4.

    High temps for those 5 days I expect should be…
    54, 48, 54, 60, 54

    Speaking of “in the ballpark”, still think despite it being mild, the low sun angle will not cause too much trouble for the ice at the Winter Classic NHL game at Fenway on Monday. It will be quite a nice day to watch an outdoor hockey game in fact.

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