Friday December 30 2022 Forecast (7:08AM)

102 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

As we approach the end of 2022, we will experience a spell of mild weather thanks to a combination of a Pacific jet stream having flushed most of the cold air out of the US and high pressure to our south giving us a warming southwesterly air flow in contrast to the anomalous arctic delivery from southwest wind just about 1 week prior. We see fair weather today, but as we count down the final hours of 2022 and get ready to welcome 2023, we’ll have to deal with a low pressure and frontal system from the west bringing us some wet weather for New Year’s Eve and into part of New Year’s Day. This won’t be a heavy rain producer, but enough to put a damper in some of the outdoor celebrations and travel to and from New Years events. At least we won’t have to deal with any ice as our temperatures will be running quite above normal – maybe even challenging a few record high minimums for the first day of the year. The current record high mins for 1-1 are 48 at Boston, 45 at Hartford, 43 at Worcester, and 42 at Providence, all set in 1965. Drier air will return during the midday and afternoon hours of Sunday behind the departing system, and a shot of slightly cooler air, but still milder than normal, will be inbound for that night as well as Monday, with dry weather. Clouds return Tuesday as a warm front approaches ahead of low pressure heading for the Great Lakes.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57 South Coast, 57-64 elsewhere.. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog especially near the South Coast. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Overcast. Periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy with rain tapering off in the morning. Areas of fog until midday. Breaking clouds giving way to sun afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts by late in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day and nighttime rain expected. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)

Warm sector weather as low pressure passes to the north of our area January 4 with very mild temperatures and a chance of rain showers. Cooling trend thereafter but only back toward normal as high pressure builds in eastern Canada and toward the Great Lakes while another high holds off the East Coast but gives ground with time. In between that, for our region, there can be additional unsettled weather with rain then some risk of mix/snow before a series of disturbances depart the region late period. There will be a lot of fine-tuning to do as we get closer to this unsettled stretch.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)

Pattern should support closer to normal temperatures heading toward mid January with fair weather to start then a return to unsettled weather.

102 thoughts on “Friday December 30 2022 Forecast (7:08AM)”

    1. No, not 2 1/2 days of nonstop rain. A few days of unsettled weather with periods of rain that may trend toward frozen precip before it’s over. Hence the fine-tuning reference. 🙂

      Important not to draw absolutes from outlooks more than a few days away.

  8. Low of 40 in south Sutton overnight. 46 now. Our temps today may be only a few degrees shy of north central SC. They were about 10 degrees warmer than here yesterday

    1. Down to 37 here, but that was like about 2:30AM, it was 41 by
      7AM this morning.

      I think many areas see 60 today, but that my thought. 🙂

      2. I was wrong about last night. I saw 40 a bit before 4:00 and assumed. We know what Felix said so I hang my head in shame. We got to 30. Interesting that the warmup started early morning before sun.

  9. Thanks, TK.

    Never a fan of areas of high pressure slipping to our south and east. Not in any season.

    I think today’s highs could easily get into the mid 50s and perhaps 60F. It’s already 47F and partly sunny where I am in Back Bay. We may get a spring set-up in which coastal areas are cooler than towns 10 miles inland.

    The Dutch meteorologists are not seeing any real cool-down the first few weeks of January in their part of the world. In fact, their outlook now suggests that above to well above normal temperatures will continue in the Netherlands and most of Europe at least through the middle of January, if not longer. This is a change in their forecast compared to yesterday. So, when I am there next week it will be in the 50s and (light) rain every day.

  10. Got to 37F last night, probably at around 2am, but similar to JPD the temperature rose after that. We’re in for some very mild nights. I was only 1 in 1965 so I don’t recall when it was last like this on New Year’s Eve and Day.

    1. I was starting Kindergarten in 1965. At least our planet’s climate was much more “sane” then. It’s definitely out of control today.

  11. I recall a very warm 1965. I was out walking in my new “tennis” sweater which were popular back then. I suspect that was also the only year we could not ski because of rain. Although, I had a blast doing puzzles in the lobby of the Eastern Slope Inn, North Conway.

    The problem though isn’t that it has done this before….it’s the fact we are doing this far more often and have been ramping up for a few decades.

    1. Off the top of my head, that 1964-65 winter was the only or one of a very few that had below normal snowfall. I want to say somewhere around 30-something inches or so for Boston.

      As TK noted in a previous blog post, the 1960s decade was quite snowy. I do vaguely remember the February 1969 100 hour storm getting at least a couple snow days, maybe a bit more than that. I was in 3rd grade.

  14. I always say in the winter if I can’t have the snow give me a day in the 50s with sunshine and that is what is happening.

    2. That is a poorly worded tweet by them. Providence and Worcester both should say that they did set records, but were later broken, not Providence came 1 degree shy of breaking a record that was set 50 years later.

  20. 2 things:

    1. The lows were really early this morning because a batch of clouds moved in around midnight-2am, ending the radiational cooling.

    2. Not convinced of record high mins on Sunday. Yes, temperatures may not drop below the upper 40s Saturday night, but as cooler air filters in behind the low pressure area, temperatures will drop in the evening. In all the forecasts I wrote all this morning for around here, I had the low for the day on Sunday at midnight that night. I think most places around here will be in the upper 30s by midnight Sunday night, which won’t set any record high mins.

    2. I would NEVER wait in line like that. NEVER! I would QUIT skiing before waiting like that. That is PATHETIC!!!!

      When it is like that, it should be pay per ride, and not an all day lift ticket. But of course, I do not know how they do it there.

  24. 55F + on Dec 30th ….. mark my words ….

    At the end of February, it will probably be 25F.

    The last day of March, a cold 35F,

    April 30, a raw, miserable 45F

    And then the end of May, cloudy windy from the NE and 50F or cooler than today !!!!!!!

  26. Really a stark difference as to what we’ve experienced vs the rest of the country, which I think is winter weary.

    That last storm really only gave us a few days of marginally cold weather, but …….

    Miami had 4 straight days below 60F.

    Atlanta I read was dealing with lots of bursting pipes.

    We know what happened in Buffalo and Watertown.

    I think the Dakotas have gotten at least 1 major snowstorm.

    New Orleans had an F2 Tornado and the west, thankfully, is having a very rainy/snowy start to their wet season.

    But here, kinda ho-hum, bit dull weather wise. Maybe not a bad thing.

    1. ho-hum,
      I concur.
      so we wait and before we know it, it will be Spring, perhaps with not much of a Winter to boot. But there is time. There could be surprises ahead, but I’m not counting on it.

  29. Thanks, TK.
    It is 60 degrees in Sudbury now. Just came in from a walk. Really nice out. But doesn’t seem like Dec. or early Jan. I know it can happen – but still waiting for snow. I like walking in the snow too. I would like to see a decent snowstorm at some point. Glanced at comments here off and on – any chance of some decent snow in the near (or distant future?).

      1. I know. Just doesn’t have that winter feeling outside. I love all the seasons but they should all do what they are supposed to do! Ha! Ha!

  32. 60F in Boston.

    As Tom mentioned we’ve had ho-hum weather in SNE for a while. Even our cold spell wasn’t particularly cold and certainly not long.

    The earth (I mean soil/ground) has already softened quite a bit. I can see records fall between now and next Thursday. Of course not every day or night. I hope the buds on the magnolias don’t burst open. It’s not out of the question given the duration of this mild stretch.

  39. 63 at Logan, 66 at Norwood.

    Over achieving? Just a tad 🙂

    61 here in JP after getting to 62

    I believe these to be very real temperature readings.

    1. If this was yesterday, Boston would be off their record of 73 by 10 degrees. But, it’s not yesterday. 😉

  44. Thanks TK!

    Topping out in the mid-upper 50s here in the “Inland Empire” of California today. You guys beat us handily and probably will several more times the next few days!

    I would place myself in TK’s camp though in terms of emphasizing that this warm spell isn’t all that unusual. Fairly impressive in duration, but what would be more unusual would be to go a whole winter *without* a couple 60+ degree days and mild nights thrown in. Winter temperatures are much more variable than summer. You’d have to get into the 70s to make it particularly impressive or unusual (see TK’s comment just above). Now, if you get 2 or 3 more stretches like this over the next couple months, then that’d be more notable, but I wouldn’t count on it 😉

    1. Thanks WxW. If we are not careful my kids and more likely grandkids may end up seeing a whole winter of 60.

      Vicki signing off and heading for the deck to debate whether to purchase the new solo mesa fire pit. Happy New Year!!!

  45. One thing to keep an eye on the next few weeks will be central and northern New England snow cover. Outside of the higher mountains, that will likely be quite paltry after this warm spell. If those regions fail to develop a solid snowpack from mid January – mid February, that could have big implications come late winter. Odds are it’ll fill back in. And thankfully, this still doesn’t look like a disastrous pattern for ski country. No big blowtorch rain events, and by later next week there should be plenty of snow making opportunities, if not actual snow opportunities.

    1. Thank you and I agree with ALL.

      I am still rooting for benign weather through mid January for that upcoming window project. My mom would be so happy if that is the case. 🙂

  49. Example of chaos in modeling beyond a handful of days:

    The medium range guidance once had the system that’s coming through Saturday night / Sunday morning all the way out to Monday January 2, and at one point, even later than that.

    Myself & other mets bring it up often, and we will continue to point that out as a reminder of how to use these tools with caution. 🙂

  50. Despite the mild spell, I can spy a couple potential signals for system that can bring at least some frozen precipitation to parts of the region.

    Windows are January 6-8 and January 12-14.

    Now yes, I know these are way beyond the “day 4” but this is what I mean by looking at general patterns and getting ideas based on what you feel the evolution can be.

    This is not a forecast for 2 three-day snowstorms. 😉 It’s a mention of a couple periods of time to watch for something that may take place.

  51. Haha .. national news playing it up. East Coast Storm for Holiday reads the headline. Uh huh. Actually, the holiday itself is going to be quite nice along most of the East Coast. 😉

    New Year’s Eve is going to be unsettled but MILD and we may start a bit wet on NYD. That’s ’bout it.

  52. I stand corrected regarding 1964-65 winter snowfall. It was above normal at 50.4” (just barely above by today’s standards). 😉

    1962-63 (30.9”) was the lowest snowfall total for the 1960s. Wow! What a snowy decade. 🙂

    I was still way too young to remember 1965 in terms of remembering specific events. I only vaguely remember Kindergarten. Old timers like Vicki and JPD can fill in the weather blanks, if you will. 😉

    1. The 1960s and the 1980s were feast and famine, respectively.

      After the very beginning of the 1990s though we entered the snowiest 30-year period on record for the region.

      1. Today’s millennials should have a lot of good snow stories for their grandchildren about the 1990s/2000s. Especially 2015. 😉

  53. Just morbidly curious: Has the death toll risen in Buffalo/Erie County? Very frightening that more dead bodies could be found during plowing and snow melt. Last I heard was at 39.

    I imagine school snow days will continue through MLK Weekend, assuming no more snowfall for awhile. I like snow but what that area has been through is INSANE!!!

    I’ll kiss the bare ground we have for now, thank you.

    1. It may go a little higher, but they are through the worst.

      Most schools will be opening next week.

      A lot of the snow will be gone by early next week.

      As I previously stated, flooding will be minimal to non-existent.

      Given how nasty it was, their recovery will be rather quick.

  54. This is the 100th comment on today’s blog!
    What do I win? 😉

    Goodnight all.

    Happy New Year in advance!

    1. This is comment #101.

      Surely you’re not taking off NYE from your blog? I hope you can check out Boston’s First Night fireworks! 😉

      1. I would have gone to the ones at Hampton Beach but they’re not going to have them due to the threat of rain.

        They have a very nervous fire marshal who will cancel for cumulus clouds basically.

        But I’m not going to bother going into Boston for the family ones. I’ll just be hanging out at home.

        No I’m not taking New Year’s Eve off of my blog. This is my baby. 12 years and 5 days old. 😉

Comments are closed.