Saturday December 31 2022 Forecast (6:46AM)

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COMMENTARY

On this final day of 2022, I’d first like to thank everyone for participating in my blog during the year. Hoping for more fun discussion in 2023. This blog was created for weather forecasts and discussion – and that’s what we do here. Simple, yes? Yup, other things come up too at times, but mainly weather as it goes – well, since this is a weather blog. However, since 2020, there has been a covid section, first published daily, and then recently moved to once per week. I am going to publish one more covid post on Sunday January 1, and it will be the final one. However, I am going to leave the ability to comment open for 80 days, so the place will still be there to chat about the pandemic until March 21. Starting January 5, you will be able to navigate there by going to the “Archives” section of the menu, clicking on January, and scrolling to what will be the first post of the month/year. I have a few more exciting things planned for WHW in 2023, so look for news about that in the future. 🙂 To all, a safe, happy and healthy new year is my wish! Peace & cheers! And now, onto the weather…

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

After a very mild day yesterday, we’re going to see a repeat on the final day of 2022 – maybe a touch cooler than yesterday though due to thicker cloud cover and a little more southerly air flow off cooler ocean water, especially along the South Coast and nearby areas. With an increase in low level moisture, we’ll see a few rain showers around the region during the day. Unfortunately, it looks like an area of light rain will move into and through the region during the evening hours, putting a bit of a damper on travel to and from destinations as well as events like Boston’s First Night. At least the mild air will make the light rain more tolerable. We’ve had it far worse. The system responsible for the wet weather will be in a hurry to move through and we’ll have some lingering dampness and cloud cover Sunday morning just behind it, before drier air returns and we clear out. While the first day of 2023 will be quite mild as well, I’m not looking for outrageous warmth or any records to be set, and somewhat cooler air will be flowing in as we get to Sunday night and Monday – still a mild day but down a few from Sunday. It will also be a dry day with high pressure moving in. The next round of unsettled weather arrives Tuesday as a warm front approaches there region, bringing the clouds back, and eventually some rain. The low parenting this warm front will be tracking to our northwest, and its cold front will then come across the region later Wednesday with additional rain showers, but between the fronts, in the warm sector, we may challenge some record highs on Wednesday..

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts to 20 MPH.

TONIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Overcast. Periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): A cloudy start with areas of fog and a chance of rain, especially eastern areas, then breaking clouds / increasing sunshine. Highs 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain by late day. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 43-50 early, then rising slightly. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog early. Chance of rain showers, especially late day. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)

Cooler to colder weather settles in during this period but only bringing temperatures back to near to above normal. We’ll have to watch for 1 or 2 waves of low pressure that can bring rain/mix/snow to the region, especially in the January 6-8 window.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)

The outlook is not high confidence, but the overall pattern should still be dominated by a Pacific jet stream and a lack of really cold weather. However, temperatures will be marginal enough that any precipitation type can occur with unsettled weather, and I am currently eyeing the window of January 12-14 for a potential threat.

66 thoughts on “Saturday December 31 2022 Forecast (6:46AM)”

    1. You do more than lurk, proofreader. 😉 … A job you’ve done well from multiple time zones and even more than one country. 😛

      1. Aww, thanks. 🙂 one more day in same time zone, then back to only being the first commenter when insomnia strikes.

        1. Haha you might be in the same time zone right now, but you’re nowhere near Woods Hill! How’s the weather down there? I’m not sure how good my on-the-fly 5-day forecast was for the area. 🙂

          1. Currently cloudy, weather app says no rain for today. You did pretty well, just under-forecast the extent of rain Thursday. Mostly you calmed my cousin down, and that was more important than strict accuracy :). My aunt still says her information is better because it “comes from noa”

  2. Thank you, TK.

    When I asked in mid-December about the prospects for snow in central Maine the following week, your “good “ reply verified in spades! We started four brand-new skiers in the extended family — and the conditions were perfect.
    (Then we had to drive back in the Dec. 23-24 storm, but everyone made it fine.)

    1. It’s a different world up there. I’m glad it worked out and even more importantly that everybody is safe after the travel. 🙂

      Happy New Year to you!

  5. Thanks TK.

    Dave Epstein mentioned opportunities for snow in spite of the mild pattern, but still no prolonged cold/snow in sight. I believe he hinted that January 2023 overall will be on the mild side.

    I believe it’s raining already as of this posting.

    1. Hard to say if the entire month will be, but it will at least start out that way. He also is referring to the same snow opportunities I have been. We think alike. 🙂 Dave’s a good guy!

  6. Some sad news. 🙁

    We lost Barbara Walters (93) yesterday and Pope Benedict (95) this morning.

    No real surprise on the latter as it was just a matter of time.

    1. I was just visiting my mom and we were talking about those 2, and on a more personal note for her, one of our former neighbors, at age 93.

  8. Thanks TK
    TK I look forward to reading your weather predictions for 2023 on the first day of the new year tomorrow.

  9. It has taken forever to get light out this morning. When I arrived to work just prior to 7:00 am it was still pitch black out. Yes, I understand being cloudy/low overcast didn’t help.

    And Congress wants DST in the dead of winter?????!!!!????

    2. They are going the wrong way with this bill. If we should do anything, it’s to get rid of DST. We don’t really need it any longer.

      We’re not going to change the amount of sunlight we get on any given day during the year, so if we’re going to make “time measurement” which we came up with, work to our benefit, the best thing we can do is leave it alone on standard time.

      If that bill ever passes, and the sun is not rising until 8:15 for a couple weeks, and after 8 a.m. for several weeks, watch the accident rate and unfortunately injury and death numbers climb during morning hours.

      We’re already used to 4pm hour sunsets, leave those alone. It only lasts so long. And most of the school travel is done by then. Leave it on DST and you’re moving countless children to travel to school in dark/twilight while a bunch of impatient commuters are trying to get to work. Right, that’s going to go well.

      1. I agree completely. It was not well received in the mid 70s. Dark, snowy roads and sidewalks and kids waiting for buses or walking is not a good idea

    1. They are on it now, not to return to DST as originally planned in April 2023. There are exceptions, however. The ten municipalities that share a border with the US will continue to switch to DST for now.

        1. We may, if the current bill passes and they realize it was failure. But knowing how things run here, it’ll take years to get it right. 😉

  16. Pope Benedict was a controversial figure. Yet, his simple and powerful message always struck a chord with me:

    “We are not some casual and meaningless product of evolution. Each of us is the result of a thought of God. Each of us is willed, each of us is loved, each of us is necessary.”

  20. There are positives and negatives of changing the way Human created time going both ways.
    I personally actually think what we should do is not change the clocks back in winter
    1. As TK mentioned its not really changing the amount of light we have each day,
    2. With all the concern about children in the morning going to school. I get that, what I also know is when students get out from after school activites their parents may still be at work and they have to walk home… I was lucky with my Mom working from home but others were not and it was dangerous during the winter as the light was going. Many students waiting for the bus can be accompanied by an adult that has not gone to work yet.
    3. As a kid in the winter, there would be maybe an hour of light left and I would be lucky if I could go outside during that hour but if I had alot of homework, no chance in hell and that is if I didnt have an after-school thing.

    4. Though getting better, there is still a major issue with over weight kids. they are stuck in a cycle of constant school and no outdoor play. The playground down the street use to be cover with kids even in winter after school. Its barren for the most part with maybe a couple of kids there and there.

    To this day I rather see darkness when I wake up and have more time in the afternoon to do things. This is also an economic and environmental reason behind it as well. If its still dark more people are willing to take public transportation at least thats what the old data showed not sure how that is these days after Covid happened. More light in the afternoon = less artificial lighting.

    There is an increase amount of depression in winter, though its about it getting darker just in general, having that extra hour of light can do alot.

    I personally could see it going either way, but I rather not have the clocks stay the way they are for winter during the summer and since moving to St. Thomas I have enjoyed that extra hour of light during the winter. It makes it not feel as short of a day.

    1. I believe the Caribbean (and even Florida and the Gulf Coast states) DST doesn’t have much of an effect on the clocks either way as the amount of daylight is the same regardless as to how clocks are set.

      It’s the northern tier states that have the morning darkness issue. It may not matter on the west coast either.

      Matt, as a scientist perhaps you can check my analysis. Unfortunately this planet’s rotation is uneven imo.

      2. On St. Thomas
        Winter: Latest Sunrise is at 654am ( 554 if changed like Mass)
        Summer Sunrise is at 542am
        Sunset
        Winter 5: 41pm (4:41 if change like mass)
        Summer 7pm (6pm if we stayed on winter time )

        Massachusetts
        Winter Latest Sunrise ( 714am) Would be 8:14 sunrise
        Summer Sunrise ( 5:05am) this being changed would stink as well.
        winter sunset 412pm as of right now would be 512pm if not changed back in my opinion would be better.
        Summer sunset 825pm ( if not change, would be 725pm)

        So positives and negatives of both, its more a matter of opinion on if waking up to sunlight is important or if having more time in the afternoon and evening , using less electricity is more important.

        1. Later studies have been done since the 1970s have shown that there is no correlation between changing the clocks either way and energy consumption. If anything, going to DST uses more energy, not less. That’s what I have read over the years anyway.

  22. 12z medium range guidance review…

    The signals are there for those watcher periods I indicated in today’s discussion. Obviously, and not surprisingly, the deterministic solutions vary significantly, but those are really not meant to be scrutinized beyond 4 or 5 days when chaos kicks in anyway – just the overall pattern.

  23. If the NWS forecast low for Boston is right, they will break the record high minimum for January 1 by just 1 degree as they have a 49 indicated. Record is 48. I’m giving them a low of 48 for a tie. We’ll see how it goes. Although just glancing at their point forecast, they have a forecast low of 47 for Logan. I’ll stay with 48. 😉

  24. Like parts of the lower 48 most of Europe this month has gone from one side of the spectrum – quite cold – to the other side – quite mild. It’s worth mentioning, however, that Iceland (a European country) has experienced cold (even record cold on several occasions) throughout most of December. Yesterday, I mentioned an anomalous large cold air blob that includes Iceland and extends east/south east to Northern Scotland, and west/northwest to parts of Greenland and other Arctic regions.

  26. Thanks TK and Happy New Year everyone!

    We skied up at Gore Mtn yesterday and it was nearly 50 even up there. Spring like conditions. The snow cover was pretty good on most trails though a few bare spots were emerging on some of the natural snow trails.

    I snapped this picture in the AM from the top of the Topridge Trail which faces SE. Love the view from that trail. My son and daughter are the lone two skiers on the trail approaching the horizon…

    https://i.postimg.cc/15q1kxyn/D5540-BB1-45-AC-4-C60-A16-B-653-A16-C82-DDD.jpg

    1. That is not to say it wasn’t crowded there…it got quite busy on some of the lower mountain trails.

      Today we cross country skied at Lapland lake in the southern ADKs. It did not get out of the upper 30s there and remained mostly dry with the exception of some drizzle as we were finishing up. Still 6-12” of natural snow cover up there. This upcoming week is going to hurt them though.

      https://i.postimg.cc/qqYw0ZXj/5-FCBC479-7-F51-47-AD-ACB2-4-FB3-A0758-D4-A.jpg

    2. Awesome photo. My brother said even pats peak was sold out. I suspect it was 90% man made but that’s a huge guess.

  28. Judah Cohen tweets:

    You know me always looking to #Siberia for clues about our weather. I had a rule of thumb, when it turns #cold east of the Urals, cold weather returns to the Eastern US in ~two week’s time. It is just starting, but colder weather is spreading east of the Urals & across Siberia.

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1608886587198406657?s=46&t=q2G_9dYVyz5I95wA69dUBQ

    Looks to me we’re on track for another #PolarVortex stretching event for 2nd week of January that typically delivers more wintry weather to Eastern US but could there be more? Blog returns next week just in time for the official start of #winter (at least in #Boston) MLK weekend!

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1608890400470896640?s=46&t=q2G_9dYVyz5I95wA69dUBQ

    1. I don’t know I was texting with him on a regular basis a few years back & I even invited him here to the blog , I’m not sure how much I buy into him these days .

      1. He’s not the only one talking about this though. I wouldn’t take any of this as meaning we are going back into the deep freeze but colder weather is on the way after the middle of this week and with it will come some winter weather threats as TK has been mentioning as well.

        2. Guess we will see how it plays out , it doesn’t matter to me how it goes down as I am not mandatory for snow removal anymore. I just don’t want bitter cold .

  29. Three stooges & New Years Eve go hand & hand , who needs ch 38 . Good tv , plenty of food & a roaring fire . Took me a bit but all I did was check on demand .

  30. I thought I’d posted this but it was a bit noisy at dsughter’s house

    I thought we could all guess at the low Boston temp tonight. I’ll go with 49 for no other reason that it is Mac’s birth year 🙂

  31. Driving is horrific out this way. Fog is thick as peanut butter making it very difficult to see more than a few feet ahead.

      1. I was glad I rode to daughters house with my younger daughter and family. Fortunately not many were out. But I worry about later when folks partying head home

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