Mostly Dry, Temperatures Swing Again

71 Comments

8:16PM

The players…

Tonight… Low pressure tip-toeing through the region and not making much noise.

Thursday… Low pressure moving away to the east but only whispering a little.

Friday… High pressure building in – bright and breezy.

Saturday… Low pressure passing south of the region.

Sunday… High pressure building in.

Next Week… Mild and dry start, cold and stormy finish?

The play (eastern MA, RI, southern NH)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 40-45. Wind W 5-10 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain or snow showers through early afternoon. High 45-50 then dropping to near 40. Wind N 10-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low 30-35. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain or snow early. Low 30. High 47.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 61.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 43. High 63.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 55.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 51.

71 thoughts on “Mostly Dry, Temperatures Swing Again”

    1. i agree with you john. they do nothing but give a nice smell unless it is a really intense shower

      2. I love the smell. Reminds me of 4:00 mornings at the barn with my oldest getting ready for a horse show. Sitting on the bench and watching the world come to life – the smell of new grass

  4. i would say some scattered light rain or snow showers south of the pike mainly across the cape and islands

  6. Hey TK, your idea of cold & stormy finish for next week makes “partial” sense to me. The 6-10 day CPC outlook is for a 50-60% probability of below normal temps BUT it also shows a 40-50% probability of below normal precip.

    How can you get a potential robust storm out of a very dry pattern?

    1. I never did use the word “robust”. You can have a stormy pattern yet below normal precipitation…

  7. 00z NAM further north for Saturday…
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120329%2F00%2Fnam_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=057&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=03%2F29%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

  9. It’s back! Both the 0z GFS and NAM are further north with the Friday night/Sat AM storm. Cold air in place and timing of precip during the overnight hours should allow the snow to accumulate. The GFS centers the heaviest snow here in CT as well as RI and the south coast while the NAM has the axis of heaviest snow basically straight across MA. NAM delivers 1-3″ to eastern MA, 3-5″ Worcester to Springfield, and 6″+ in the Berkshires.

    0z NAM snow totals:
    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BOX

    1. Mark I can’t see the date on the link – is this the early April storm everyone has been watching?

    1. Hope not. But with last week being so warm and now temps going up and down, nothing would surprise me. I would make great money with it coming on the weekend.

    2. No way, it’s very funny watching people twirl the carrot with possibilities, I continue to watch the possibility and there is no possibility, have a great day and plant a garden, I plant my garden the 2nd weekend of April, 🙂

  12. Me: Is that a carrot on ur model maps or are u just happy to see me?

    GFS/NAM: Take the carrot…you know you want to…dooo ittt

  13. I know the snow lovers out number the heat lovers on here 3:1, but you guys are grasping at the proverbial straw here. As I said before, if I see a 1 inch or better snow at my house in Northbridge, I’ll be shocked to the point of passing out 🙂

      1. HA! I’ve never met anyone who cant stand warm weather like he does. I can understand not likeing 100 degrees, but a few 90’s here and there, come on 🙂

  14. The last time I received a coating of snow was on March 10th. It was quiet surprising because we didn’t expect it. It snowed pretty good for about an hour, close to an inch, but melted away by 2pm. Would love the chance to run around with my daughter in the snow again this year.

    The most snow I received in one event this winter was 3 1/2″, which I believe was the same storm that gave parts of south coast and the cape a foot.

  15. I think we are looking at a general 1-3″ accumulation, mainly interior and higher elevation locations. Interested to hear TK/JMA’s thoughts…

  16. Weather Channel jumping on board with a few max areas of 3-6” interior southeast NY, northeast PA, northwest CT and western MA. 1-3” elsewhere mixing with rain SE NE

        1. I work at a hospital and do snow. A dusting would get us here, even the threat would-be standby. How much for Boston.

  17. The higher up you are in elevation the better chance at accumulating snow. I am think 1-2 maybe an isolated 3 inch amount. This should not cause problems on roadways and will melt quickly.

    1. Ch 7 has no mention of snow, maybe a tad mixed in north. Does Boston see accumulating snow. The only big talk I am hearing about snow is here.

      1. More like a slight job to the south. I think if models are jumping around tomorrow it will become a nowcasting event.

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120329%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=042&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=03%2F29%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

  20. I dont think it precipitates north of a line from Hartford, CT to Providence, RI to Plymouth, MA. In fact, I’ll go 30 miles south of that line for seeing any measurable precip.

    Reason: The last week, everything has been surpressed. The warm airmasses have suddenly been cut off at the pass entering the New England area, the general flow has been one of shunting things to our south. Also, tomorrow looks to bring in another cool, DRY airmass that will be in place prior to the system’s arrival.

    We’ll see with this afternoon’s 12z runs. My guess is they’ll trend southward again…..Of course, this means they will will come further north, predicting a much needed rain and snow event. 🙂

      1. Let me rephrase that it in a normal winter this would not be a big deal but this year it is.
        As Scott pointed out GFS south and I am still thinking as I said yesterday this thing will go south and miss us.

  23. Henry Margusity has given up any long range forecasting for now. He says that the models are such a “muddled mess”. On his morning blog he ranted about other mets trying to do long range forecasts of arctic outbreaks, snowstorms, etc. which I assume some models are showing.

    I guess he should know…lol. 😀

  24. Latest GFS not offering much of a warm up other than next Wed. We may not get snow this time, but that trough looks locked in for the forseable future, keeping the chance of snow hanging around

  25. Not liking the sounds of temps for the next couple weeks!! After Burma,last week in Boston and now Florida it’s going to be a shock to my system. Bring in the warmth!!

    1. I just walked a couple blocks down mass ave in cambridge and I’m freezing. I truly hate this time of year. Even more than winter. Is it May yet? Late March and most of April are truly dispicable for spring and summer lovers.

  26. I can’t agree more with you Brad. Late march and most of April are raw with that east wind and very little sun.

    1. Won’t be getting those 80’s back for awhile! I’ll take what we can get down here. Being in a higher elevation of north central/east CT, I think we have a better chance than most of an inch or two of snow out of this. I would be happy with a couple of late season snowfalls to make up for some of our drought this past winter. I did not get my fill of snow this year!!

  30. 12Z Euro gives coastal CT an inch or two with nothing any further north.

    This run does indicate a pretty strong coastal storm for late in the week, 4/5-4/6 timeframe. Right now looks like coastal ME gets hammered as they often can this time of year. Something to watch though.

    1. We are definitely still in the game for something here in CT Sat AM, esp higher elevations. I saw the coastal storm late next week on both the GFS and Euro….looks right now like the cold air isn’t going to make it here in time for any snow in SNE but it bears watching.

  31. Feels like a nice November day . . . (if you pretend all the blossoming bushes and trees are there).

        1. For me it’s hard to look at it as November-like since the sun angle is too high. You can even tell that through the clouds. I can’t ignore the buds and the brightness at 5:30PM. Typical late March weather I say. 🙂

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