Sunday January 1 2023 Forecast (8:02AM)

70 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)

Happy 2023! Yesterday’s unsettled weather was wasting no time leaving us, and the weather today looks even better than I had forecast just hours prior. All showers are offshore, and the sky has at least partially cleared if not mostly cleared out, but we will see patchy clouds at times today, and possibly a trend back toward more later on as a disturbance approaches from the west. What will vanish and not return today is any early fog patches as the air dries out nicely. The aforementioned disturbance will only bring its clouds this evening before it moves through and beyond, setting up a nice Monday with high pressure in control. But the fair weather will be short-lived. A warm front will approach on Tuesday, bringing clouds back along with some rain, and another shot of unseasonably mild air for at least parts of the region into Wednesday (60+ high temps potential for some), before a cold front brings rain showers followed by a sharp cool-down into Thursday. I maintain a cautious eye on high pressure in eastern Canada to potentially dampen the Wednesday warm-up, at least for the northern and eastern portion of our region. With a trough along the coast and additional low pressure in the area, any rain may switch to snow during Thursday as the colder air arrives. Further elaboration on next update.

TODAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain by late day. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 43-50 early, then rising slightly. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Chance of rain showers, especially late day. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog. Lows 45-52. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Temperatures falling into the 30s. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)

Unsettled weather potential including possible frozen precipitation January 6-7 and another minor system may bring a precipitation chance late period. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)

A low confidence outlook but watching the January 12-14 period for potential unsettled weather. Temperatures mostly near to slightly above normal.

70 thoughts on “Sunday January 1 2023 Forecast (8:02AM)”

  3. Thanks TK.

    Happy New Year to all!

    I still have difficulty associating snow with above normal temperatures. AJ Burnett has the same thinking as TK for Thu/Fri though. He did mention that inland areas have the better chance of snow but we’ll see.

    1. Start with knowing the variety of things that can happen in terms of set-ups, and the time of year, and location as well as climatology. Some of our bigger events have come with temperatures near or above average (more due to the above average min temp for the day than a really warm high temp). But it can happen several ways, depending on each situation.

  4. I’ll be back later this morning or midday with a list of fun “predictions” for the year ahead…

  5. Thank you, TK

    A very happy new year to all

    I saw Boston broke its old record for highest low temp by 6 degrees??. It was 54 at midnight when I checked. If I’m not mistaken, the old record was 48.

        1. Ahhh. Your explanation to me just now made excellent sense. No harm, no foul. I had fun watching no matter the date.

  8. Thanks TK
    Happy New Year Everyone!!! TK I look forward to reading your weather predictions for 2023 later on and if anyone else has weather predictions for 2023.
    Here are mine
    The biggest snowstorm of the winter happens in late January early February time period will deliver 6-12 inches of snow for SNE. After that 2-3 minor systems in February will deliver 1-3 2-4 inch snowfalls. Another minor system the first week of March of 1-3 2-4 inch will be the last measurable snowfall for the season. This winter will be just outside the top 10 least snowiest winters on record
    Spring weather arrives for SNE after the first week of March but April will be cruel with plenty of April showers and the only month in 2023 that will feature below normal temperatures
    Memorial Day Weekend will feature classic summer weather and this is when I expect the first widespread 90s of 2023 for SNE.
    Summer will feature normal thunderstorm activity. I don’t see any widespread severe weather outbreaks. Temperatures will be 2-4 degrees above normal. The hottest parts of summer will be the first two weeks of July and the last two week of August. I am thinking 20-25 90 degree days this summer. Another year will go by without a landfalling hurricane in New England
    I don’t expect classic autumn weather to arrive until the week prior to Halloween. It is in that time period the first widespread frosts for the interior will happen. Boston will not see frost until the week prior to Thanksgiving.
    The first flakes will happen the first week of December. I am sorry to say we will be dreaming of a White Christmas.

      1. see though the last two weeks have been bad, and hope that would be good enough for Bill to fire Patricia, if the Patriots make it to the playoffs, I am not sure what Bill would do, so I rather see them not win today or next week, get a good draft pick, and though I do not have high hopes, the Patriots get Hopkins or Higgens in the off season. They have the cap to do that as well as get Offensive Tackles and a speedy slot receiver in the draft that I see could be a perfect replacement for a Welker/Edelman type slot receiver.

  10. here is my go with 2023.
    There will be a 2 to 4 week period in which we have consistent winter storms, including a Blizzard that impacts the I95 corridor. There will be a second arctic blast but this time it will be a bit further east. 😉
    Spring will make a false apperance in early march, then we get a chance for more winter weather in March at some point
    There will be severe weather out breaks with tornaodo’s, possibly a strong one for New England.

    Spring will start slow, but once it starts at some point in April, it will get warm quickly and we have our first 90 degree day in mid to late April.

    Despite Neutral ENSO developing, there will be an pre season storm that is a hybrid that some people don’t truly believe should get a name but it does by the NHC.

    Though people will forecast a below average to average hurricane season, it ends up being above normal and destructive. July and August have been quiet last year, this year it flips and the Mid-Atlantic and New England have a close call with a hurricane late summer/fall.

    This storm though starts the transition for fall weather to move in.
    The fall foilage will be amazing.
    Winter next year is good to us winter weather lovers in New England including some snow on the ground for many in the WHW area.

  14. We’re at 53 here in JP which makes 4 days in a row at 50+, including one at 60+.
    Let’s see how long we can extend that. 🙂

    1. Tomorrow will be close.

      Sleeping without blankets in winter is a rarity for me. It happens once in a while. But this time around it’ll be for a 7 or 8 day stretch.

  16. Happy New Year to everyone at WHW!

    I posted my predictions for 2023 on the Forbes website for those who are interested.

    Weather-wise, all I can say with certainty is we’re going to complain about it at many points in 2023, just like we always do. Well, except TK, who has a great positive attitude towards weather. I wish I could emulate this.

          1. Butttttt I May have read you but to be fair I have never heard you 😉

            And JPD it is part of your charm.

    2. The church I attend….virtually….in Framingham asked folks to try writing a Psalm last June. I took a shot at it. My kids surprised me by having it printed and framed for Christmas. I actually read a bit of it before I realized the words were mine. But this pretty much explains why I love all weather.

      https://imgur.com/a/E3Js5bd

        1. Thank you. ❤️ You all know how much I have always loved sitting on the deck. It sure isn’t a psalm but came easily.

    1. You just know whenever the first big “event” happens for boston it’s going to be a slopfest. I can feel it in my bones.

  18. TK’s only slightly scientific and mostly non-scientific weather predictions for 2023…

    After a miserable failure of my December forecast, I do no better heading through the rest of the winter as the pattern trends better for snow and we recover with several substantial snow events, the biggest of which will take place in a 3-day event, and the only double-digit snowfall of the season for Boston, but it’s long duration will make it somewhat more manageable since all the snow doesn’t fall at once.

    JP Dave is offered the position of Lake Cutter Parade Chairman but turns out down (no surprise). He’ll be quoted as saying “#$%* no! I wouldn’t take that position if it had a million dollar salary!”

    Boston has a low temp of 0 or below on 3 different non-consecutive days in February. So much for my mild end-to-winter forecast as we end meteorological winter with a colder than normal month.

    Spring 2023 is one of the sunniest on record but also cooler than normal. But the higher sun angle at that time of year makes it tolerable. Coastal areas do get their share of chilly stratus days though, and a certain Jamaica Plain resident is observed cursing the east wind during these days.

    An unseasonably late cold spell results in one of the latest final freezes on record. Snowflakes are observed as far east as the suburbs of Boston in early May. Memorial Day Weekend starts warm but a powerful back door front and Canadian high pressure combine to make the final 3 days of May set some cool records for the region. Widespread late season frost occurs away from the coast on the final morning of the month.

    Meteorological summer starts with record low temperatures on June 1, setting the tone for a cooler than normal summer. And while some hot days do sneak in there, they are limited, and never long enough for any heatwaves at Boston.

    Precipitation will be below normal both spring and summer leading people to start using the “D” word again.

    Thunderstorm activity runs below normal, but some of the storms we do see are potent due to cooler than normal temperatures aloft making for an often unstable atmosphere.

    A series of thunderstorms heading for Boston over several days all shift course and pass just north of the city, much to JP Dave’s dismay, prompting him to coin a new phrase for storms that don’t track where he wants them to: “The Cambridge Cutter” … #$%!@*$

    A mild and mostly dry September is punctuated by several very cool shots from Canada, albeit short-lived, allowing the month to be only the second (after January) to average warmer than normal. However, things start to change when 2 tropical storms visit the region in under a week’s time at mid month, in an otherwise very quiet hurricane season. The first widespread frost comes before the end of the month, except for immediate coastal areas.

    October starts with fleeting warmth and the only record high of the entire year on the 1st of the month. The rest of the month is colder and wetter than average, with at least 2 minor measurable snowfall events. During dry times, many locations see their earliest freeze in years and the growing season ends abruptly and ahead of normal.

    November is cold and dry except one week of wet weather early in the month when it temporarily gets milder. Otherwise, most precipitation from mid month on is in the form of rain and snow showers as reinforcing shots of cold arrive. Earliest leaf drop observed since the 1980s as trees respond quickly to October’s and November’s weather in combination the lessening daylight.

    December is the coldest of the 21st century so far with nearly all precipitation falling as snow, mostly minor events, but adding up and not melting, making Philip thrilled at the prospect of a white Christmas even at Logan airport! A late-month snowstorm between Christmas and New Year’s pushes the month’s snowfall to well above average. Several people shoveling snow in Jamaica Plain could swear they heard somebody yell “Cowabunga!”

    The final weekend of 2023 is Halcyon with cold, calm conditions and bright sun shining off a fresh snowcover.

    ………………………………

    I hope you enjoyed these. I’m not putting any money down on them though. 😉 Happy New Year all!

  20. It is now snowing down in the city of Flagstaff,AZ

    https://www.flagstaffarizona.org/webcams/

    Interesting see all of those trees in Flagstaff. We just don’t think of beautiful trees when we think of Arizona. We think of desert and cactus. People forget that parts of the state have a mountain climate which makes it totally different than say lower level locations like Phoenix or Tombstone. 🙂

  21. Two winter snow storms to give Boston a total of 23 inches recorded at Logan & I’m predicting a 16 inch snow fall for one give or take & 7 inch for the other . We will have mostly seasonable days through January with some very cold days to end the month & start the beginning of February then it’s mostly the same ( pretty non- event winter with the exception of one bigger storm & one small to larger storm being one the end of January & the other around Presidents’ Day weekend . Usual March weather but mostly milder days . April turns out nice with not much in the way of April showers & predicting we are indeed going to be in a drought right through summer & June – September will be some spectacular weather with plenty of hot & dry days . I predict no landfall hurricane in September & I’ll go with the first snowstorm between Xmas & new year week ( maybe right after Xmas leaving us with no white Xmas . This is just a wild playing along guess .

  22. Don’t ever take for granted the amount of sunshine we get in Boston during every season. As I prepare for my trip to the Netherlands I realize how lucky we are in Boston to actually see the sun so frequently. Spoke to my daughter in the UK yesterday. She has not seen a single glimpse of the sun in about 12 days. And there is zero sunshine in the 10 day forecast. Spoke to my ex-wife in the Netherlands. Same story. I will be in Holland for 6 days and will not see one ray of sunshine. 70-90% chances of rain throughout; every day.

  23. You got a great game to attend, North. I held my breath a few times. Mac looked awesome but he has before. I have to go find what the bucs ended up with

    1. It was a good game and beautiful day! We had many injured players, so we did well for what we had for active players on defense today. Bucs ended up winning and clinched a playoff spot. We are also still alive for a spot but have a huge game next week with the Bills!

    1. So sorry to hear of your fear of flying. My wife and son are just like you. I love flying, although there is always a little room in the back of my head somewhere that says what if?

      Have a great trip!

    2. I am a worrier also. And even Mac who flew from the time he was two to Sweden(1951) and then often each year back to the states for home leave was more cautious when he was older.

      I try to keep in mind that Mac’s sister flew safely for 50 years internationally and nationally.

      You have me thinking of the photo below of Mac’s mom, mac and twin and his sister flying to Stockholm in 51. It was a big enough deal to fly internationally then that they made the news

      https://imgur.com/a/Kl62GzQ

  26. Vicki, love that picture of Mac and family!

    JPD and Vicki, I used to NOT be a worrier about things, at least not to the degree I am now. It’s manageable. I do board planes. I don’t need to be knocked out. Once I’m up in the air I’m okay for 6 hours. It’s the take-off and landing that reduce me to a nervous wreck. Of course, rationally, I know there’s a greater chance I get hit by a car, bus, or tram as I walk in Amsterdam later this week.

    I climb mountains, bike a lot, do all kinds of things that involve some degree of risk. For some reason, flying makes me nervous.

    1. Thanks, Joshua. It was a 23 hour trip with three young children. Mac’s mom was an amazing woman.

      I absolutely 100 percent understand what you mean about take off and landing. I used to race cars but am now a cautious driver. Funny how different things seem as we age.

      Safe travels, dear friend!!

  27. The more recent NAM runs give a little more support to the 18z GFS idea, and something I hinted at above, regarding a longer episode of unsettled weather from Tuesday through Friday, possibly into the start of the weekend. No the NAM doesn’t go out that far, but the set-up reminds me of one that would put us in a place to have to endure extended cloudy weather with episodic precipitation,, starting cool, a warm spike, then turning colder. Best chance of frozen precipitation toward the end of the stretch.

    Will elaborate in upcoming updates.

  28. I’m beginning to wonder if the 60+ temps are going to happen at all on Wednesday. I’m not so convinced any longer that we’re going to blast that warm front through here so easily…………

    1. 00z GFS still has some low 60s north and west of Boston.

      00z Canadian has it get near 60 into southern NH Wednesday morning, then has a backdoor blast through midday, still 60+ south of the Pike into SE MA/RI/CT.

      1. This is one of my favorite challenges to forecast.

        Still hearing news headlines about 60s Wednesday with news anchors practically urging people to go to the beach. 😉 One radio anchor even talked about how warm it’s going to be all week.
        All week? Nope. 🙂

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