Monday January 2 2023 Forecast (7:32AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)

The pick of the first full week of 2023 comes early, and it’s an easy pick: today. But wait, what about those 60s on Wednesday? Shouldn’t we plan a beach day in January? Not so fast. Let’s go through this step by step to see how things really evolve, and why today will be a nicer day than Wednesday. Well, on the surface (yes, it’s a pun), it’s rather simple. High pressure controls our weather today, and even though its center is off to the south it exerts plenty of influence so we have dry air with temperatures a little above the seasonal averages, and while we will see some clouds at times related to disturbances passing to our north, it will be a nice day overall – for many people a holiday (the Monday observance of New Year’s Day). And then things change. You may recall last week that I indicated during this week we would be in a battle zone between warm air to the south and cold air over eastern Canada. The battle gets underway Tuesday as a warm front approaches, bringing in an overcast sky and a period of rain. While this is happening, high pressure will be building in eastern Canada, and a decent supply of low level cold air will be moving into northern New England. I’m not overly impressed with the set-up to push the warm air behind the front too strongly to the north, and this is why I am having my doubts as to how far that frontal boundary will get. For now, I am going to forecast the boundary making it into but not completely through the Woods Hill forecast area – probably into the I-90 and southern I-95 belt,. but maybe not all the way to the northern I-95 belt and the Route 2 corridor northward. If it does make it that far, it’s likely to be for a brief time only, as the low level cold will ooze southward by later Wednesday, assuming it hasn’t been so stubborn that it stayed in places in most areas. This is more easily accomplished as we will have a more strung-out west-to-east low pressure configuration to the south of the Canadian high pressure area. When we see this set-up, the models often forecast the warm air to make it too far north, and while it does move northward above us, it doesn’t really do so very well at the surface. And with plenty of moisture around, this means initially that we can have additional rainfall in the region, but with time, it may turn cold enough at the surface so that freezing rain and/or sleet become part of the equation, especially over interior locations to the north and northwest of Boston, sometime during Thursday. The scope of the issue this could cause would be determined by how much precipitation is around. We may end up with just spotty light activity, which would limit the trouble. As we get to Thursday night and Friday, cold enough air should move in at mid and upper levels so that whatever falls ends up in the form of light snow or snow showers. It’s uncertain how long that will hang around on Friday. Some guidance dries us out while other guidance keeps the cloud cover and precipitation chances going. Leaning toward the latter for now, but with plenty of time to adjust if needed.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain midday on. Areas of fog developing, becoming particularly dense along the South Coast. Highs 36-43 except 43-50 South Coast. Wind SE under 10 MPH except around 10 MPH coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast and foggy with periods of rain. Temperatures steady or slowly rising. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH, except may remain SE in areas to the north of the Route 2 corridor.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog, especially north of I-90. Periodic rain showers, also areas of drizzle favoring locations north of I-90. Highs 45-52 southern NH and far northern MA and 53-60 elsewhere morning to midday, then cooling temperatures from north to south during the afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts except E around 10 MPH in southern NH and far northern MA, becoming NE 5-15 MPH in all areas from north to south from midday through afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog evening. Periods of rain which may convert to freezing rain over inland areas of southern NH and northern MA overnight. Lows 31-38. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain except potential freezing rain early in the day interior southern NH and northern MA, may mix with snow starting north and trending south during midday and afternoon. Highs 33-40, mildest South Coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light snow. Lows 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow except some mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)

Trend is drier for the January 7-8 weekend but still may be some instability around the region with a passing snow shower or two possible especially the first half of the weekend, along with more seasonably chilly air. Brief precipitation threat may exist sometime in the January 10-11 time frame from the remains of a system trying to move through from west to east.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)

Continuing to watch time windows of January 12-14 and again at the end of the period for potential precipitation threats from an active Pacific to trans-US storm track. It’s always difficult to time these things so far in advance, so for now read this as a fairly active / unsettled pattern for mid month with temperatures near to above normal as I think coldest air will be prevented from or limited in moving into this region.

65 thoughts on “Monday January 2 2023 Forecast (7:32AM)”

    1. Modest amounts. This does not look like a prolific producer by any stretch. I figure maximum amounts probably in the vicinity of 1 inch.

  4. Thanks, TK.

    I’m going to take full advantage of today and go for a hike. It may be the last time I see the sun for a while, given that I’m headed to the low countries tomorrow.

  5. News anchors are on a roll this morning..

    One of them talking about how all this warm weather is going to melt the ice at Fenway Park for the NHL Winter classic between the Bruins and penguins this afternoon.

    Except that the air temperature during the game will probably be at least a few to several degrees lower than you would find inside a standard NHL arena. 😉

    And yes, I know that the sun is usually not shining inside an NHL arena. But let’s keep in mind how low the sun angle actually is still. Not much of a factor during game time.

    1. You’d be amazed at what that ice can withstand. I was there for the Frozen Fenway doubleheader on January 11, 2014 (Lowell/Northeastern and BU/Maine). The NU/Lowell game was played in 55 degree weather with consistent drizzle and occasional showers. The BU/Maine game was delayed in the middle of the game when a thunderstorm dropped more than 1/2″ of rain and completely flooded the rink. Once the rain ended, they opened the end of the rink, and used brooms to shove all of the standing water out the end, then resumed the game.

      The outdoor hockey “experience” is significantly overrated. I’d much rather watch today’s game from my couch, which is exactly what I will be doing.

        1. For the Lowell/NU game, my seats were in the State Street Pavilion on the 1st base side, front row. For the Maine/BU game, I watched it from the press box, so I was able to stay dry (I’ve been friends with Lowell radio broadcaster for over 30 years)

          1. You were in the broadcast booth for the other night’s Lowell game, correct?

            I’ll be watching the Winter Classic on a sight DVR delay at the start but caught up by period 2.

              1. Ugh! I heard part of the game on the radio but I had to drive somewhere and was never able to keep the signal long enough to hear the rest of it. Hopefully next game is much better!

  6. Thanks TK.

    PLAYOFFS?!
    PLAYOFFS?! 😉

    I will root for Buffalo tonight so they won’t have anything more to play for next Sunday with the Patriots and hopefully will “rest” some of their star players.

    1. Buffalo will have something to play for next week even if they win tonight. They’ll only be tied with KC with a win tonight, but they do hold the tiebreaker.

      The Chiefs are playing on Saturday next week, so Buffalo will know going in if they need to win or not, but if KC wins, Buffalo will need a win to still get the bye (if they win tonight too).

        1. In any case, the Patriots are NOT likely to beat Buffalo.
          Could they, sure, if everything lines up just right, but are they likely to win? NOPE.

          I hope they do, I really do. I’ll be watching and hoping.

          Josh Allen ain’t no Teddy Bridgewater!!

          1. As long as Buffalo has something to play for, then NO WAY can the Patriots win. Too many good players including Allen.

            1. Yup, and the Patriots had absolutely zero chance of upsetting the “Greatest Show on Turf” in Super Bowl XXXVI. Oh wait….

  12. Temps are quite marginal Friday, so, if we get some snow, maybe it’s the perfect kind to whiten up the brown earth, while the dark road pavements fare better.

  13. In terms of the Patriots.
    Man if we just had a real OC, this team would not be questioning 7th seed, but could they make it to the big game as the defense is that good and would have been a going away party for Devin MCourty.
    Are there times in which the defense struggles yes there are games in which the defense struggled, but you can not expect one unit to not struggle at some point in the season which is why you need your others to step up. That was what was really frustrating to me. Ravens, Green Bay, Vikings, Bengals all could have been wins of the offense had a better OC. Not to mention the large number of games that were closer than they should have been.

    THEY NEED A NEW OC, bring in a O’brian or Chad O’Shea or heck Reis who Bill respects and won us those early championships has a kid with a good resume as well. There will be options that would make this offense better. This is the number 1 thing that needs to be done

    Patriots offense needs to keep KB, Meyers, I think thorton is starting to get it, watch him next year break out. Parker if he could stay healthy could be good for us. Keep Hunter Henry and get rid of smith.
    There is a certain reciever that will be available for a 2nd that I hope they look into.
    IN the draft there is a TE that looks decent, but there is also a very smart receiver that could be used as that real Patriot mold slot reciever that we have not had since Julian left.

    ON defense, they need to find another Balmore style player.
    They need someone that is a true cover corner with speed and height.
    Then resign everyone else

    1. The GFS vs Euro timing seem off a bit. Not that it’s having a great effect on the sensible weather.

  15. Thanks TK.

    The mountains of the West have been getting crushed again. Alta, UT received another 3 feet of snow from this latest storm and are up to a ridiculous 301″ of snow on the season and we just flipped the calendar to January and aren’t even into the heart of winter yet.

    Much of the state of Utah (mountain areas) is still under an Avalanche Warning today.

    1. The Sierra’s were crushed as well. 7.5″ of snow in one hour is approaching unheard of territory….

      UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab
      @UCB_CSSL

      MASSIVE STATISTIC: Official #snowfall rates of 7.5″ per hour at the lab between 4-5pm today. Snow is light and fluffy.

      Onsite researcher recorded the daily 4pm measurement and went back to check accumulation an hour later.

      #CAwx #CAwater #CAsnow #Snow #Weather #AtmosphericRiver

      https://twitter.com/UCB_CSSL/status/1609359195035561985?s=20&t=JiCsYVXS0RU5aa8Wiut41A

    1. I’d recommend (for anyone on Twitter) reading through some of the commentary under one of Tomer Burg’s recent posts regarding this guy. Tomer quote-tweeted this nonsense, and Eric Fisher and John Hickey share some good insight in the replies. Most of the weather twitter “snow weenie” brigade is pretty harmless all things considered. But that guy is a *complete* fraud, who is not a met (even though he claims to be), provides fake high snow reports (and thus is blacklisted from NWS reports) and is also banned from contacting at least one NWS WFO for verbally abusing the on staff forecasters over winter weather product decisions. And beyond all that, his tweets literally make no sense.

      2. Interesting, thanks for the information WxW. It’s clear from this guy’s posts that he is a snow enthusiast but I was giving his posts some credence given the pretense that he was an actual meteorologist. Did not realize he was a fraud. Will add him to my blacklist!

      3. Thanks WxW. Earlier p, I set him to follow on twitter, got that tingly spiney thing as I read some posts and unfollowed.

  19. Gut feeling I think January is going to be pretty quiet until the end of the month . Winters here have just been totally different compared to years past

      1. There was a minor to moderate snow event on January 24 which was the pre-show. The first biggie was on January 27. The other 3 biggies were February 2, 9, and mid month. Other events went into very early March and then we went cold and dry, at which time most of the snow did not melt, but sublimated.

  20. January 24th – March 8th was the window for those big snows.
    I remember TK when making his predictions for 2015 said the window for snow would be from January 24th to March 9th.

  22. JimmyJames… I have probably shown this before during a similar discussion, but below is a copy of a conversation here on the blog between myself & JMA on January 10 2015. This is when we were just starting to spy what would become “the pattern”…

    ___________________________________________________

    Woods Hill Weather
    January 10, 2015 at 10:56 AM

    JMA if you are still out here: What is your take at this point on the pattern as we head into the end of January / February? Since November, I have felt that if we had a shot at a snowy period (that is a series of legitimate snowfalls in at least parts of southern New England) it would come in February, with borderline weeks final week of January and first week of March. I have been known to be off on timing, even when I get the general transition idea right. GFS ensemble mean hints at positive height anomalies more into western Canada and eastern Alaska around January 25. There is also positive anomaly in the North Atlantic. Maybe I’d like to see that tucked a little closer to Greenland. The ridge is not in the southwestern Atlantic like it was in the December pattern but down closer to Mexico and I would think that may prevent that pattern where the trough buries itself in the Southwest underneath a “tilt-over” ridge. The pattern depicted there looks a little more stable, following a period of milder Pacific flow that follows our current cold. That pattern showing up late January if it should hold as the general pattern for a few weeks would then breed our snow chances for the Winter basically, not necessarily all materializing, but making the pattern a little more active, in terms of snowstorm threats. Do you agree with this?

    JMA
    January 10, 2015 at 3:31 PM

    TK- I saw your question above and my thoughts are in line with yours. I think I would slow down a transition to that pattern. I think the warmer pacific flow shows up around the 18-20th time frame and then heights will rise out west sometime around the 28th-30th, signaling the start of a more active, but not necessarily cold pattern. My concerns here are if the the ridge does not slide east towards Greenland and the ridge down south ends up east of Mexico we end up with a warm southern stream conduit for storms originating in the SW and TV lows to come up over us or just to our west and that means mix or cold rain events. It will be close! I am probably 4-7 days slower on pattern evolution then most, but I will stay with everything being a bit slower to transition as that has been a consistent trend this winter. I am banking on a 15 day pattern of more significant precip events centered about the 1st half of February being just cold enough to deliver most of our snowfall for the winter. So TK I am in general agreement with you, I am just a little concerned our active pattern ends a bit, but a crucial bit,too warm.

    Woods Hill Weather
    January 10, 2015 at 4:20 PM

    Thank you. I’ll certainly not scoff at your delay in the pattern change. It was right-on last time and again my bias as a forecaster has generally been to flip patterns a bit too fast. Unusual considering I’m a very patient person. Still working on that often-made error. .. At least we’re both centered generally around the same time for the majority of the snow.

  24. Prayers for the Buffalo bills player. Took hit , stood up & collapsed onto his back . CPR was being performed & the game has been suspended

      1. Indeed . Game is canceled & it’s about time they called it . Now we wait word & prayers those words are he will be ok .

  29. TK with you post above were you just provided info info for JJ or are you trying to give us a hint of things to come?????? 🙂

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