Tuesday January 3 2023 Forecast (7:41AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)

A stretch of unsettled weather will last most of this forecast period. Previous discussion basically holds. Low pressure will pass through our region in strung-out form, and the main forecast question yesterday was how far north a frontal boundary would get as a warm front tonight and Wednesday before being pushed southward by eastern Canadian high pressure as the elongation of low pressure was going by our region. Today’s answer is similar, but adjusted slightly to the colder side – less frontal progress – which is not a surprise as we have seen this set-up many times and it’s something I’ve been concerned about for a few days now. Being on the colder side of the boundary does set up some potential for slick travel later on. With this first batch of rainfall coming in today, developing and moving in around midday, while it is chilly, the temperature will sit above freezing in all areas, so icing is not a concern, nor is it during the main batch of rainfall as it passes through this afternoon and tonight. A break comes for much of the daylight hours Wednesday, but another batch of steadier rain comes in later, into the night and into early Thursday. Lower level cold will be more established at that time and the temperature may be at or even slightly below freezing over interior portions of southern NH and northern MA, creating icy conditions on untreated surfaces. Still additional precipitation will be around, albeit more spotty in nature, as we move into later Thursday and Friday, but this time enough cold air will have worked in aloft so that some sleet and snow will be involved, although not heavy. But this can add to some slippery conditions on untreated surfaces, and this time a little further south and east, while mix/rain may still be involved closer to the South Coast region with less of a chance of slick conditions there. Again not looking for a major winter weather event, but since we’ve lacked having to deal with slippery conditions much of the season so far, it’s important to note that it can be around and be on the look-out for it. By Saturday, the atmosphere will be drying out, but with some instability left as upper level low pressure still has to pass through, I am keeping the chance of a few snow showers in the forecast.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain midday on. Areas of fog developing, becoming particularly dense along the South Coast. Highs 36-43 except 43-50 South Coast. Wind SE under 10 MPH except around 10 MPH coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast and foggy with periods of rain. Temperatures steady or slowly rising. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH, except may remain SE in areas to the north of the Route 2 corridor.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog, especially north of I-90. Periodic rain showers, also areas of drizzle favoring locations north of I-90. Highs 40-47 southern NH and northern MA and 48-55 elsewhere morning to midday, then cooling temperatures from north to south during the afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts except E around 10 MPH in southern NH and far northern MA, becoming NE 5-15 MPH in all areas from north to south from midday through afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog evening. Periods of rain which may convert to freezing rain over inland areas of southern NH and northern MA overnight. Lows 31-38. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain except potential freezing rain early in the day interior southern NH and northern MA, may mix with snow starting north and trending south during midday and afternoon. Highs 33-40, mildest South Coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light snow and sleet but can still be mixed with rain South Coast. Lows 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow except some mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow flurry possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A snow shower possible. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)

Moderate confidence forecast for mainly dry weather with near to slightly above normal temperatures, but watching for a minor system around mid period that may deliver brief precipitation, and the approach of another system as early as the very end of the period with another precipitation threat at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)

Lower confidence forecast but still keeping an eye on the first couple days of the period for the opportunity to be impacted by low pressure and rain/mix/snow – TBD. Drier weather should follow that. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

47 thoughts on “Tuesday January 3 2023 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    As usual, great job being ahead of things with seeing that tomorrow (wednesday) isn’t going to be as warm as thought a couple of days ago.

  5. Ocean temperature finally below fifty degrees. Would I be wrong stating that ocean temperature is running several degrees warmer than normal?

    1. I would agree. something in the order of 2-4 degrees.

      For Boston Buoy, 16 NM Due East of Boston, the current
      water temperature is 45.32 F
      Average is: 41.81 F
      That is a positive departure of: 3.51 F

    2. It’s above along our coast, yes. Longer term there is a cooling trend underway. It will be unsteady though.

  7. Gimmie some 0Z Euro.

    I would be willing to bet a sizable sum that the 12z run
    does NOT have the nice snow storm depicted by the 0Z run.

    0Z Euro

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2023010300&fh=234

    10:1 snow with snow still coming down, caution: near the coast this total includes some sleet so likely less than depicted.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2023010300&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  10. Thank you TK.

    Light rain started at 8:15 AM on north shore and hasn’t stopped. Will probably stay this way through the evening.

  11. I put 50 bucks on the 00z euro to be at least partly correct.
    My reasoning.
    1. We have not had good snow while I been here in Mass
    2. I am leaving the day before that storm is depicted.
    3. Mother nature can be cruel lol.

  13. Red Sox cruelty towards their fan base continues.

    Red Sox and Devers agree to ………. for a split second, I got excited.

    1 yr, 17.5 million dollar deal to avoid arbitration. 🙁 🙁 🙁

    I think I’m switching allegiances to another town’s baseball team until either we get new owners or they go back to spending on high level talent.

  14. Red Sox cruelty towards their fan base continues.

    Red Sox and Devers agree to ………. for a split second, I got excited.

    1 yr, 17.5 million dollar deal to avoid arbitration. 🙁 🙁 🙁

    I think I’m switching allegiances to another town’s baseball team until either we get new owners or they go back to spending on high level talent.

    2. Red Sox management is PATHETIC! How to ruin a great team in 2 easy steps. They should be ashamed of themselves!!!!

    2. I don’t typically mind dark, but todays dark seems to fit the mood of the day. I can’t focus on anything. The horror of last nights game, tragic news from a friend and just learning of the passing of a decades old friend of Mac’s and mine. A few here might remember him singing at Mac’s celebration of life.

      1. I’m sorry to hear the sad news. Thoughts are with you and family, as well as your friend’s family.

  18. I’ll be a busy bee this week into next with the post holiday cleanup, un-decorating (which I am holding off on until the weekend but leaving myself very little time to do), and prep for the window project. AM blog posts should be on time, but my ability to check in may be limited.

    Today, not much to say regarding the weather. Things going along as expected with no apparent surprises as far out as I can confidently look.

    I keep the dry trend after Friday, maybe a few snow showers Saturday. GFS recent runs still take energy south of us through the 10th, and have 2 systems a little closer than the ECMWF does. If I had to pick a model right now regarding that period of time, it’s ECMWF. Still not really trusting the GFS outside of about 60 hours where it still seems to be having issues related to the upgrade. Not sure if they are doing anything about that yet, and if so, what. I honestly haven’t taken the time to check. Will do that soon.

  19. Oh yes, FWIW, the 18z 3km GFS has the 32 degree line from just west of Boston down to interior southeastern MA (away from South Shore & South Coast) westward to northeastern CT by late in the day Thursday. At that time, it doesn’t have any organized precipitation areas in our region, maybe just some spotty freezing drizzle or snow grains. Still has some energy back to the west that wants to move through here on Friday, which I agree with (hence my forecast above).

  21. January can be quite depressing when it’s dark and rainy. Discarded Christmas trees add to the gloom. There’s a sense of melancholy now that the holidays are over.

  22. Some lake levels in California have gone up 3 to 4 feet in just the last week. This is excellent news. The diminishment of the Great Southwestern Drought is underway.

  23. Droughts end in floods. As TK said, this is absolutely great news for the long term drought out here in CA. In fact, it’ll take much more, and likely years, to erode the reservoir deficits and other long term indicators, and the fact that water levels are so low gives tons of buffer for storing all this water.

    But you almost can’t come out of a drought this bad, in a pattern like this, without there being a flip side of the coin. Even though there will be long term positives, the potential human impact of the coming days/weeks is troubling. Even the storm from New Year’s Eve, which gave SFO it’s second wettest day on record, led to considerable impacts, and that was really just the primer.

    The 0z GFS and CMC are an endless onslaught for the West too. 12-24″ makes a fun range for snow… not so much for rain over steep, burn-scarred terrain. Of course, this all ties in to the Pacific jet and the more tranquil pattern over the East. Would be nice to flip that soon and give us a breather here.

    Not a good sign when you see so much information about safety and survival planning in an AFD (from this evening’s Bay Area office discussion)…

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=mtr&issuedby=MTR&product=AFD

    1. Sadly that is correct. We’re going to see the results of over-building on lands known to flood, and hills vulnerable to slides, in the weeks and months to come.

      Shorter term, it’s rough, which is inevitable.

      Longer term, it’s good.

  24. Landed in the Netherlands. Bumpy approach, but nothing out of the ordinary. However, my umbrella just broke as I was walking towards a favorite cafe of mine in Amsterdam. To say it’s windy and raining is an understatement.

    Dutch coffee is quite good. Tastes like Gevalia, which is from Sweden (you can purchase this in supermarkets and even CVS has it).

  25. Thanks TK. Flew home yesterday from NC and it was down right delightful on the Outer Banks. Several days of shorts etc…

    Pattern just doesn’t look good, feel awful for ski resorts. Here’s to a batter end of month.

    1. The resorts with snow making are doing decently well. Could use a bit more natural of course – though some has taken place with the passage of our rain events.

      They’ll recover as the season goes on where it hasn’t been as good.

Comments are closed.