Wednesday January 4 2023 Forecast (7:17AM)

96 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)

The danger of the media speaking in absolutes will be proven, once again, today, by the lack of 60+ degree weather that many an outlet touted days in advance. While our area professional forecasters were cautious, many of the headline makers were not, so it ends up as misleading information. Now, I myself also spoke of 60 degree possibilities a few days ago for today, but with caution, as you know, with high pressure in eastern Canada being a potential thwarting influence on the big warm up. The observations at dawn today speak for themselves, showing a frontal boundary sitting right on the South Coast where temps are in the lower 50s, with the rest of the region in the upper 30s to lower 40s with either a light northerly or easterly wind. That frontal boundary may make a little bit of progress northward this morning, but any of that will be temporary, and the boundary will be shoved back to the south tonight and on through the end of the week. While this is taking place, a strung out area of low pressure will continue to provide us with a cloudy sky and occasional precipitation, which will tend more toward the freezing / frozen variety with time. The good thing is that as this happens, the quantity of precipitation will be limited, so the impacts will be lessened from that aspect of it. However, this does not change the fact that untreated surfaces will easily show the effects of the lowering temperatures as we move through Thursday and into Friday. The weekend’s outlook is improved, as it looks like most of the upper level energy I’d given as the reason for a chance of snow showers Saturday should be offshore before the day begins, thus allowing me to remove that chance from the forecast, just leaving it as a day of sun and passing clouds with a gusty breeze and seasonably chilly air. Sunday’s weather would be more tranquil as high pressure moves overhead but high clouds would already be appearing ahead of the next weather system in a Pacific jet stream pattern.

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Chance of drizzle, especially I-90 belt north. Highs 40-47 southern NH and northern MA and 48-55 elsewhere morning to midday, then cooling temperatures from north to south during the afternoon. Wind SW up to 15 MPH South Coast, N to E under 10 MPH elsewhere, becoming NE up to 10 MPH all areas from north to south by late.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog evening. Periods of rain which may convert to freezing rain over inland areas of southern NH and northern MA overnight. Lows 31-38. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain except potential freezing rain early in the day interior southern NH and northern MA, may mix with snow starting north and trending south during midday and afternoon. Highs 33-40, mildest South Coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain, which can and likely will freeze on surfaces away from the coast, and possibly sleet. Lows 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow except some mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow flurry possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)

This range continues to be forecast with moderate confidence as guidance remains questionable and the pattern remains fast-Pacific-flow-driven. Opportunities for unsettled weather exist January 9 and January 12-13, based on current trends and expected timing. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)

Continued lower confidence in forecasting this far out with opportunities for storminess probably twice during these 5 days and temperatures near to slightly above normal with the same general pattern idea. Some hints in the longer range that the pattern may start to shift to a colder, drier one with a northwesterly flow, but I’m not convinced this won’t be delayed initially. Much time to figure that out.

96 thoughts on “Wednesday January 4 2023 Forecast (7:17AM)”

  3. Earth at perihelion today (about 11:15am).

    Closest to the sun, at an approximate distance of 91,400,000 miles.

    Average distance or 1 Astronomical unit is 93,000,000 miles.

    Aphelion, which is the first week of July, is about 94,500,000 miles. This makes summer 4+ days longer than winter in the northern hemisphere.

    Yes, its the tilt, not the distance from the sun that gives earth its seasons.

    1. Indeed!
      I’ve had people ask me before why it’s not warmer here in January than July for that very reason. They are usually fascinated by the explanation. 🙂

      1. I love the whole topic.

        It is a topic in grade 6 science, the tilt and the seasons and if I could, I would sneak out of math class and go participate in the activities too. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      2. Up through 5th grade, I did my time in a Catholic school. I had some serious run-ins with the nuns about science. I did eventually receive an admission that the seasons are not caused by the earth’s distance from the sun. The bothersome part was that no correction was ever made to the entire class.

        And then there was the part about whether we ever see the other side of the moon from earth. That was never resolved and I am still bitter about losing points on that on a test.

    2. If you maintain your health, the earth completes a very slow rotation on its axis and in about 15,000 + years, the earth will be closest to the sun on the northern hemisphere summer solstice and winter will be longer than summer.

      I hope they have improved the GFS by then !!

  6. So far, I am NOT impressed by any meaningful snow chances for
    at least 2 weeks. Here’s hoping that outlook changes soon.

    Meanwhile the Sierra’s continue to get hammered. 🙂

    1. We still have the house lit up, holiday style. For that, I’m loving the dark that is quite normal for the early days of winter. 🙂

      But don’t worry, we are about to start gaining daylight at in increasing rate. 🙂

      1. Gaining daylight means nothing if the clouds prevent sunlight from getting through. Not even any brightening which I find somewhat unusual for multiple days.

  9. Thanks TK. And thank you Tom for your comment above. I will read it to my grandkids and see if I can find a you tube example.

    Also thanks WxWatcher for your comments on California in yesterdays blog. I have yet to read the link and will call Mac’s brother after I do. He is in Moraga and his daughter in Walnut Creek

      1. Thanks. Me too. I was reading the link from WxW. I’m always surprised when I see a forecast for possible thunder. When the family visited us in the 90s, the kids were hoping we’d have a thunderstorm. They’d never experienced one.

  10. Woke up to rain (I live in nor cal- Bay Area, and for once my weather today is more interesting than yours). Missed the last big storm because I was traveling, but have seen some of the aftermath (big puddles, even 2-3 days after storm, lots of my usual hiking trails closed due to damage). Yesterday got message from my school saying no current plans to close or alter schedules. Curious if my daughter’s soccer practice today or game tomorrow will happen (soccer is a winter sport here- it’s a weird place) Will keep you all posted 🙂

      1. I’m really not that worried for me – we’re in a rain shadow and in a valley. Could lose power from winds, but expecting 1-2 inches of rain. My friends who live in the Santa Cruz mountains… they’re expecting up to 8 inches of rain which is seriously mudslide territory… north bay and hills tends to be where the action is. Coast as well.

  11. Damar Hamlin’s go fund me for kids in the area where he grew up is up to 6.1 million and growing. He had set his goal at $2,500. 100% goes to helping kids. Several Pats players, Kraft and Brady are among the top donors, but a very many have donated $5-10-20 which I often think shows as much supper.

    This is the very best of this country.

    His family has said they believe in the power of prayer. Let’s keep them coming please.

  12. Thanks TK!

    Between Julie and Vicki’s connections and myself, WHW is developing a sizable California contingent 🙂 Hope everyone stays safe!

    And TK made a great point on my comment in the last blog. California’s level of development, particularly in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) plays a big role in the negative impacts we’re likely to see, despite the substantial positive effects. The reality is that despite being an easy butt of jokes for long stretches of tranquil weather (admittedly true sometimes!) it’s actually a rather violent natural climate, frequently treading a knife’s edge between one extreme (flooding) and another (fire). Not to mention ever-present geologic threats.

    1. Unlike you and Julie, my connections are long distance. Although Mac’s sister in law grew up in southern CA so has enjoyed the area for decades.

  14. NYC would get snow and Boston would get rain if that panned out. NY would take the lead in the snowfall standings. I remember back in late February 2010 snowicane as the media called delivered a rainstorm to Boston and snowstorm to NYC.

  15. That February 2010 was so frustrating to me as a snow lover as a snowstorm was happening just over the CT boarder in NY.

  17. Thanks TK.

    A discussion of the upcoming winter weather threat periods from Matt Noyes….

    Matt Noyes NBC10 Boston & NECN
    @MattNBCBoston
    1h

    I’d mentioned last week & the week prior that Jan 9 onward is a pattern for us to stay alert. That starts next week as the jet stream delivers three meaningful disturbances to the East Coast. Monday likely is transient & just snow showers…

    Matt Noyes NBC10 Boston & NECN
    @MattNBCBoston
    1h

    Next Wednesday 1/11 and Friday/Saturday 1/13-14 both see jet stream level disturbances that will pivot around the base of a jet stream trough, encouraging storm development along the East Coast. Will be a matter of exactly where that development occurs, but antenna up those days.

      1. LOL. You have multiple antennas and they are sticking out in all directions at all times! The day you don’t post a model run I may believe you…for a second.

  21. 100″ of snow so far this season in Buffalo and it’s all gone.

    Brian Brettschneider
    @Climatologist49
    16h

    50″ of new snow for Buffalo starting 12 days ago and now their snow depth is just a Trace.

  23. With the dominant Pacific flow, its entirely possible to get a perfectly tracking, intensifying system and not have the cold air around to have it snow in southern New England at lower elevations. And, there’s some hint of that lately on the GFS.

      1. I guess I was emphasizing that it looks suppressed to me. 🙂
        So much so, I added an R instead of one of the ps. Oh well.

  26. The GFS doesn’t look too believable to me middle of next week. Polar troughing doesn’t look deep enough, in the absence of a -NAO block, to produce a bombing storm at that low of a latitude. I’d favor something more progressive in line with most other guidance. Wouldn’t completely count the GFS out at this range though of course.

    Either way, I do think the SNE snow door is going to start to open up. Like Tom said, it’s going to be a very active flow. There’s going to remain a number of limiting factors with a lot of “threading the needle” and situations where only regional areas, not widespread swaths, would cash in on snow. I do think this is the type of pattern (unlike in December) where a -NAO would help the cause to slow these systems down and allow for better offshore development chances. MJO is definitely favorable though.

        1. Some degree of occasional lake effect will probably make a comeback by mid-month, but odds are it won’t be nearly as severe as anything from earlier this season.

  28. Thanks, TK!

    All the Christmas decorations are packed away except for the outdoor lights and the creche. They stay lit and up to await the arrival of the Three Kings tomorrow night.
    In Spain, most kids have not received their toys and presents yet as it’s the Magi, not Santa Claus, who delivers the goodies.
    There are parades late tomorrow afternoon in most Spanish cities and villages that welcome the Kings. The kids go down the parade to see for themselves that the Magi are “in town” and ready to bring their gifts.
    Some young Spanish families now have Santa and the Kings as part of their holiday traditions which doesn’t go over so well with the older folks.

    Although still the best team in the NBA, the Celts are coming back down to Earth, having lost 8 out of the last 16, including last night’s stinker against the Thunder. The C’s gave up 150 points.

    Tonight/tomorrow morning marks the anniversary (1904) of the coldest night in Taunton and in Massachusetts, -35º.
    -35º was hit twice more in 1943 and 1981.

    https://learn.weatherstem.com/modules/learn/lessons/153/13.html

    (Assuming weatherstem.com is accurate.)

    I have done some research on that night in Taunton and it was the night that the Taunton State Hospital had a massive fire.
    Nobody perished that I could find out, but more than 500 residents had to be evacuated.

    I cannot image being that cold.

    https://imgur.com/Wgyrz9C

    1. The Bruins, on the other hand, played an incredible game on Monday at Fenway! Of the many sporting events I saw during the holidays (except the World Cup final), the Bruins-Penguins game was right up there, especially the third period!!!

    2. Great post Captain.

      We did take our outdoor manger down. It is held by rods and the ground is so mushy I was afraid it might damage it. It was really hard for me to do. My daughter says I’m the only one who leaves it up till the 6th. I will make sure to show your comment to her.

      The indoor manger is still proudly displayed. It was my brothers and mine when we were younger. My grandkids move the wisemen closer each day starting on the 25th

  29. 12z Euro’s upper air pattern argues much harder for a midweek storm than the GFS, yet it’s a miss. Go figure 😛

    1. ALL of the EURO action “Appears” to be suppressed to the South. Oh well, what are we going to do?

      1. We’re going to hope that it’s right so the window replacement project doesn’t have any delays. At least that’s what *I’M* going to do. Yay dry air. Go dry air! No storms! No storms! Miss miss miss! Cold & dry, kiss them goodbye!

            1. Haha! You know how promises go with weather. 😛

              I’m going to leave the promises to the weenie-run FB weather pages. We’ve been getting a steady stream of promises of a return to full-on winter blast pattern here in New England since Thanksgiving. I suppose if they post it every other day, eventually they’ll be right (by accident). 😉

                1. Actually one of those pages just went back yesterday and deleted all of the “pattern changing” posts back to the end of November. I guess they never happened. 😉

  32. Walking into work today I overhear somebody reading a forecast out loud. “High in the 40s?! I thought it was supposed to be way into the 60s today! That’s what they said 5 days ago!” … and I though to myself this is a great example of what’s wrong with weather info and sources these days. So I walked up to the person and gave them the address to this blog and told them to read the discussion about today starting with the blog on January 1. 🙂

    It may be a one-person-at-a-time crusade, but it’s worth it. 😉

  33. Winter Weather Advisory is posted for interior eastern MA, and all of southern NH except the Seacoast, westward, for 4AM-10AM Thursday morning for pockets of freezing drizzle and freezing rain with a light glaze expected.

  34. JP Dave don’t look beyond this line…… 😉

    The CFS model gives Boston about 1 inch of snow through February 5. Ouch! 😉

    1. NOT surprised in the slightest. As I said previously, I think my low snow guess may be in Jeopardy!

      1. Well at least we know that model is good at pattern recognition (at times) but not so good with specifics. It wasn’t really designed for that anyway. I think Boston will get more than your predicted amount still. 🙂

  35. When is your window project finished I found my snow socks. Trust me. They are not 100% but bring snow. I hud them mid February 2015 so you can see they work but can get carried away.

    I won’t wear them till your project is complete. 🙂

    1. haha! feel free to wear them if it makes you happy. 🙂

      The project is scheduled to begin on January 9 (they are still on schedule), and according to them, they plan to be done by the end of the day on January 13. That’s 5 days, but I assume that a significant storm (especially one with lots of precipitation and especially wind) would slow them down or even force them to skip a day. While we could deal with that, for the sake of putting things back I’d rather it be fit into the 5 days, giving me the weekend to do most of the reorganizing. 🙂 We will see how it goes!

      1. Perfect. I have my bivalent booster Jan 13 so will be down and out a couple of days I can wait till then.

        And be very very careful. Your little haha! May make them angry if they think you doubt their power.

  38. For some reason I just feel that End of January through February, that will be the time for sustained winter weather for New England. It will be a 3 to 4 week period that we don’t see until about a week or so before hand & the start of the pattern change happens just as I am leaving next next 😉

    1. From Eric Fisher: Color me intrigued by the passing snow on Friday. Low certainty at the moment but could be a pretty hefty, albeit short-lived, burst moving through

  40. I believe there could be snow in the air tomorrow, Boston and points north and west.

    But the temps will be marginal.

    I think our local NWS, who does a great job, is being very top end with these projected accumulations tomorrow.

      1. Their low end amount looks more realistic.

        There’s no real difference btwn their middle of the road amts and their high end amounts, which I think they might want to reconsider.

        1. Probably because the “high end” amounts are the most realistic forecast they can make at this time. I’m similar, just kept away from the 3.

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