Basically A Battle

124 Comments

5:27PM

Over the next several days, the old pattern will be battling with what wants to be a new one, so the short result is details and timing of weather systems will be a pain to deal with. The best idea at this point is to expect variable temperatures and several rather weak and fast moving systems. One such system is on its way out now, another will move through early Saturday, probably passing far enough to the south so that some snow flakes may fly in parts of southern New England Friday night or Saturday morning. Other disturbances are timed for later Sunday and later Tuesday to early Wednesday, but check back for tweaks in timing.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clouds breaking in the evening. Clearing overnight. Low from the upper 20s remote suburbs and rural areas to middle 30s urban centers and coastline. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High from the middle 40s higher elevations to around 50 coast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Chance of rain and snow especially in RI and the southern two thirds of eastern MA after midnight. Low 30-35. Wind NE around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow in the morning especially along and south of the Mass Pike with minor snow accumulation possible especially in higher elevations.  High 45-50. Wind NE 10-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers  late in the day and at night. Low 30. High 52.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 54.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 57.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 32. High 46.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 51.

124 thoughts on “Basically A Battle”

  1. Thanks TK for the update. Are there any storm opportunities for late next week as you hinted in your previous blog?

    1. Models, even the reliable Euro, are flippy-floppy so I’ll just stick to climatology and previous runs and say don’t count it out yet.

  2. In other words, a typical horrible cold, damp, grey first 2 weeks of April like we all know and love 🙂 Maybe by Patriots day we get some warmer 60’s.

  3. What? You mean another warm weather lover here instead of being surrounded by winter freaks? LOL Seems like we are in the minority. I just get a kick out of some who long for a snow storm in April, and hang on to winter like my 2 yo does with her binky.

    (All said in good fun now) 🙂

    1. I just hang onto climatology, and what I’ve seen before. We’re 1 week away from the anniversary of the April 6 1982 powder blizzard.

      1. I’m still trying to figure how I don’t remember that one. I have memories associated with all the storms 🙁

        1. I remember it. The strong winds blew a drift onto a road a few miles from my house that my father could not see and we drove right into it.

  4. NAO looks neutral to slight positive toward the middle of april. Dont see it going negative and staying there, so no extreme regime change there seems like. Pretty typical early spring weather if you ask me.
    8-14 day CPC (if you trust it) shows normal april temps and below normal precip.

  5. As always I think it’s a nonevent, the main thing is the little rain we get I will take we need it bad. Hope everyone having a great night. April is Sunday and it looks like it will be in the low 50’s but cloudy. Mon and Tue look seasonably mild with temps around 60.

  7. Brad I love the heat but also ache for big winter storms but in April. After being in warmth for nearly a month I am depressed thinking about a 40 degree difference come tomorrow.

    1. I’m of course with you Hadi. I love any weather event or weather scenario I have my favorite seasons but all are special for what they have to offer – even the cool mist or hot humid days or snow storms in spring or fall.

  9. Thunderstorms back on the radar tonight. Some pretty strong ones in plains, however, the ones in far south Texas look very, very powerful.

  10. April 1982 was a real snowstorm , very cold for that time of year , remember low 20’s , lots of wind and I think 16-18 ” .The following weekend was Easter Sunday and the Monday was opening day at Fenway . Lots of Snow removal at Fenway to get ready !

    1. Hi Kirbet and now I remember vaguely with your mention of Easter and opening day. Welcome to the blog!

  11. I’m not anti winter, though its not my favorite. Summer is my favorite than I like fall. Its just winter had time to do its thing and It did not. I do not want winter weather in spring. I want to start thinking of warmer weather. I do not think thats bad.

  13. Tropical storm Pakhar has formed in the South China Sea (northern hemisphere). Looks pretty good on satellite. Wonder what the “avg” season time wise is over in that part of the ocean.

    1. The season pretty much never ends there, it just peaks in late Summer and Fall. I forecast tropicals out there for years and they just happen whenever they want. 🙂

  14. Kirbet welcome to the blog.
    As I said the other day the April 82 storm I was not alive for. Sunday will be the 15 year anniversary for the April Fools Storm.

    1. Interesting……..I’ve only had a quick chance to look at this. Will have to look at more later in the day.

  17. Wow…where did this come from? 0z NAM is back in the game with a track further north and what looks like a widespread accumulating snow across a good part of SNE. We know Charlie isn’t taking the carrot…..anyone else? Even a nibble?

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=03%2F30%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=039&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    1. Storm total precip from the 0z NAM is almost comical. If this verified and it were Jan or Feb with a lower sun angle and warmer ground, we’d be talking a widespread 5-10″ of snow south of a Boston to Greenfield, MA line.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120330%2F00%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_p24.gif&fcast=048&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&cycle=03%2F30%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. Yep…no surprises there with the juicy NAM. I notice it is also colder than the GFS, keeping the 850mb 0c line south of LI during the duration of the storm while the GFS brings it up to northern CT. Another typical bias of the NAM.

      That aside, even the GFS has shifted north with the steadier precipitation in this run. Would not let your guard down for a few inches of snow if you live in west/central Mass, northern CT, and RI. I really think it’s going to be tough to get much precip up into the Boston area.

  19. 0z Euro is also further north and juicier delivering accumulating snow roughly from Worcester County west to the Berkshires and south into the hills of northern CT, RI, and SE MA.

  20. I am not a snow wisher at this time of year ,however I remember one year we plowed just west of 128 I think 3 times one April maybe 20-25 years ago. Another interesting fact after the October storm I can say I have plowed here in 8 out of 12 months . Oct. to May .Winter weather here in all but June,July,August, Sept ,

  21. I think its the higher elevations that will see the snow. The ground has been so warm so it will be tough to accumulate.
    I am thinking a MINOR coating-2 inches for those areas. Even areas that do see a slushy accumulation it will be gone quickly.

    1. JJ, I thought you said yesterday it will be a miss. Why are you changing your forecast? Is it because the models shifted a bit more north?

    2. Cant agree more jj, there will be no accumulation for Boaton and Providence but like I said we need some rain to give the lawns a drink 🙂

  22. Good morning – it is a beauty! Shotime looks as if we didn’t have to worry about a frost but I’ve learned it’s far better to be safe than sorry. It didn’t get below 37 here.

  23. I’m not even gonna say anything but no shot of any accumulation, that is truly what I see, beautiful day out this am, it feels like early April 🙂

  24. Charlie, when it snows and accumulates public safety is key. Especially If you work where I do. If we had an inch untouched here at work, trust me heads would roll. There is good money in snow, but safety rules over everything.

  25. Charlie, what do you see as far as rain in Boston? We’ve got movers coming at 8am tomorrow – will we get rained on?

    1. Imo I think Boston gets less than .10 of precipitation from this, at 8am there will be showers in vicinity, it may just be enough precip to make it damp, if anyone see some wet snowflakes it will be sw of Boston and esp central and northern ct, downtown Boaton may see a wet snowflake mixed with rain, there will be no accumulation, Have a good day 🙂

  26. what ever happens with this storm most of the models are in agreement that areas south of the pike and in western mass will have more than other areas with almost nothing from boston to fitchburgh north. I fall in the almost nothing area. then cut the accumulations by 1/3 to 1/2 because of the ground being so warm.the nam ,euro and gfs is saying northing more than one inch for me.

  27. I just added the AniWeather extension to Firefox – you all probably have it but in case you don’t it’s pretty cool – I have a toolbar at top of browser page that gives temp etc and if I hover I get an immediate pop up of radars and more.

    1. it appears to get its info from NOAA and I have five different radars that show up when I hover over their icon – temp, clouds, precip, warnings, etc.

  28. Harvey Leonard ‏ @HarveyWCVB
    Snow will edge a bit farther north than earlier expected…some accum. possible 3-10am Sat., especially Worcester County

    1. I just saw Barry Burbank on WBZ and he talked about the NAO (negative atlantic oscillation) finally going negative. That could bring on some snow events for the next few weeks. The potential is there – wonder if we will get any appreciable amounts of snow in any of these events.

      1. Time will tell I guess. We really need the rain so I am rooting for that, if we get snow then that’s a bonus!

        1. I agree! I wouldn’t mind having some snow – and even for those places that get just snow; the moisture from the snow (little as it might be) can’t hurt.

  29. Snow events for the next few weeks?? Do we have an eyeroll emoticon here?
    3 inch accumulation? I know we cant actually pay anything off here, but if we could, i’d bet a months pay there is NO 3 inch accumulation anywhere below 1000 feet, if that.

    FWIW, Brett Anderson’s long term forcast for april is out.
    9-15 April, mild
    16-22, Seasonable
    23-29 Mild

    So tell me guys, since i’m new here, when do you snow freaks actually stop wishing for, and forecastin snow? Memorial day?? I’ve lived here 20 years (Suffolk, middelsex, and southern Worcester county and I can honestly say I’ve never seen snow acummulate later than the fisrt week of april. With the exception of ’97, what did fall melted on contact.

    1. There is snow in the forecast so we are discussing snow. If the forecast was calling for 70’s this weekend we would be talking about gardening. So tell me Brad, how can you not understand that?

      You sound like a troll to me.

        1. Brad, find me a wish casting post on here. And while your at it, define wish casting for me?

          I want snow, yes but I don’t make crap up. In fact, no one does on this blog.

          Your a troll.

        2. Coastal, you need to lighten up a little. I meant no harm. Man, this is about the most serious blog i’ve ever seen. Dont you guys have a little funand can tell when someones having a little fun with you? You automatically asume troll? geez

          1. Yes Brad, we can tell peoples tone on here from what they post. We are all mind readers.

            If your making light about a subject then use the universal symbol for it. 🙂 🙁

            1. ok, so because i dont use little smiley faces you automatically assume the worst. As I said, lighten up a little. Its a fun little blog, for heavens sake to discuss weather, or at least i thought it was. We’re not curing cancer 😉

    2. NAO negative for a few days, then looks to go neutral or slight positive again. Not negative enough for what i’d call a regime change.

    3. Brad as I said other times – it’s all about weather. And not part of that is being a freak – just love whatever comes our way. If it’s snow – fine; if it’s a thunderstorm – fine; if it’s a spectacular day like today with a cloudless sky – fine; and if there blue sky is dotted with clouds I like to lie on my back and take them all in. Nothing is off the table and all is welcome.

    4. check April 29, 1987 and May 9, 1977 (I think – I always think it’s 1978 but believe I was recently corrected and it’s 1977). Both were without question accumulating storms. Heck last October’s storm was not supposed to happen either. Just sit back and enjoy 🙂

        1. hahahahaha – I knew that – so if a tree falls in the woods and no one is there to see it does it really fall 😕

  30. Brad, I totally agree with Vicki. She put it very well. And, by the way, I am not a snow freak. If anything, I am a thunderstorm freak! 🙂 I find more enjoyment in tracking summer storms. Just as long as they don’t hurt anyone. I, too, enjoy all the seasons for what they are. That’s what makes New England special. If we get any snow in the next few wks., it will just make the spring-summer that much sweeter. And every little or big change in the weather makes it all that more interesting. I, too, am looking forward to the summer and warmer days. 🙂

    1. I like thunderstorms too. I wish we had more up here. Tornados I can do without, but i’ve seen many, many of them, and been within a half mile of several.
      Like I said, i didnt mean to upset anyone. I see one person on here is pretty sensative for some reason, so if i offended him, i’m truely sorry.

      2. Brad in defense of coastal and with all due respect to you, I don’t think he was being sensitive at all. Your comments – although well meaning – were keeping me away from here yesterday. Or maybe I’m too sensitive too. I’m not sure. They just brought flashbacks to the BZ weather blog where anyone discussing a weather event was criticized for “wanting” it to happen. Which of course is anything but the whole picture.

        The problem is that there is no emotion when you are behind a keyboard and it is very, very easy to be misunderstood or to misunderstand. I know I am prone to type quickly and it can come out in a way I don’t mean at all but I figure that’s my fault and not the fault of the person who called me on it.

    2. rainshine – since my family is failing miserably at waking me up when there is a night-time thunderstorm, I should probably give you my phone number so you can call 😀

      Meanwhile did you see Tom Hanks around your neck of the woods? I was at the Wayside Inn for breakfast last Saturday and they said he’d been there the day before. I’ve always admired him for his work and for seeming to be just a down to earth person!

      1. No, I didn’t see Tom Hanks. I just saw the traffic on Rte. 27 and the orange cones up the road. I had some errands to do so I took a back-street to avoid all the stuff going on. Rumor has it (according to my husband) that on the Sudbury Patch they changed their minds at the last minute and took all the signs and stuff down and decided to film in Lincoln, instead. I don’t know why. Later, on the way home, I saw what looked like the film crew taking down the stuff they put up. Oh, well.

        Most of the time, if there is a thunderstorm around, the thunder will wake me up. But I have been known on rare occasions to sleep through a thunderstorm. But if I know there is severe weather going on before I go to bed, I likely will stay up and stay glued to the doppler radar until it has gone by! 🙂

        1. I heard the same thing rainshine about Lincoln. I stay up too and will usually hear the storm unless it’s within an hour of when I fall asleep. My youngest was terrified of storms ao when she was little shed run into our room and jump in bed. It was a great way to know they were coming. We swore she heard them before they reached Worcester 🙂

    1. yea well it’s you and me again – go figure. Except I think everyone was very civil and it’s part of growing. It’s life 🙂

    2. Do you give your kids time outs, coastal? From what I understand the new theory is one minute per age. Should we give each other a time out and save TK the time? I could use an hour of quiet 😳

      1. Too funny. Yes we do give her timeouts and we talk with her so she understands why she is in timeout and that she has to apologize. The belt always worked for me back in the day, or the threat of Dad’s coming home soon.

        1. That’s what my kids do. Actually my youngest uses the 1 2 3 magic method which is great. Her pediatrician recommended the book. I think you and I passed the 3 somewhere a while ago 🙂

          1. LOL. We used that and when we got to 3 she would say 4-5-6-14. We were to busy laughing and forgot what she was in trouble for.

            1. Hahahahahaha. The difference is she’s a girl. Boys are not quite as ……what’s the word…..precocious ?

  32. Well, I’ll maybe post something once i a while if the mood moves me, but I can see this blog isnt really for me then. Seems you guys are a pretty serious bunch that i thought was a fun little blog. i guess i was wrong. If something someone posts keeps anyone away, that your issue, not mine. Maybe i’ll come back during thunderstorm season, thats what i like anyway. Have fun 🙂

  34. I see maybe you all worked that out and I don’t have to really comment on it…

    The real question today is, will I keep doing the blog if I win Mega Millions tonight?

    The answer… Yes.

      1. I would keep working my husband would retire. I love what I do. But I’d buy a house at Humarock and work from there 🙂

          1. You laugh but I have plans all worked out in my head – hehehehe – and sadly that’s where they will remain 🙁

  35. And regarding the above exchange… The blog title says it all.

    Onto the next one…

  36. Low dewpoints and relative humidities are back today….

    I noticed that the last few long range EURO runs are suggesting warmth for next weekend and today’s 12z run is staying consistent with that.

    I’m looking at the disturbance in the Great Lakes and it’s associated precip on the radars. Assuming a movement to the east-southeast from its current location, a less than impressive precip shield in central and northern Michigan and all the dry air it’s going to encounter locally, I don’t think much is going to happen later tonight and tomorrow morning.

    1. It’d be nice to have warmth for Easter. Does anyone have an idea of what the weather will be like in Augusta GA next week into the weekend?

      1. Agreed Vicki ! Well, if the EURO has the general idea correct, the eastern third of the nation would be warm. Nice to have good wx down in GA next week for the Masters. I don’t watch a ton of tournaments on TV, but for some reason tend to follow that one and usually the US Open.

        1. I watch the majors with my husband who watches every tournament every week. We had to tailor Easter around the Masters but we are all hoppy to because we all know how much he loves watching it.

  37. TK is there a chance Framingham might have snow on the gardens/grass by morning? It seems the tv mets are seeing a move a little north

      2. See I respectably disagree, I don’t think there will be any accumulation, but at least we do it civil here 🙂

  38. hmmm…..Just my two cents here. I don’t think anyone was or is Wish Casting here. People generally look at all the information that is available to them and try to expound their ideas of the weather to come. On the other hand I don’t believe Brad was a Troll. I think coastal has a right to be upset with be called a Wishcaster and equally Brad should be upset with being called a Troll.

    Now can anyone explain to me why my darn Xfinity 3g Hotpsot connection is so damn sloooowww. It’s basically like a dial up connection today.

      1. Basically it acts like a router. It’s a little credit card size gadget that allows u to connect up to 5 wireless devices to it. I have the 4g/3g service and use it with my netbook away from home. Where 4g is available the connection speed is pretty darn good. The 3g speed is ok most of the time but not today.

        1. I’m sorry to ask so many questions but I’m thinking about something like that. I have a hot spot on my iPhone but to use it I have to give up unlimited and don’t want to. Right now I have fios but the middle speed since it costs more than I need to pay for the top speed. I’m assuming it doesn’t plug into your computer but does somehow access a signal. I love that you can take it with you. I don’t need you to tell me price but how does it compare to having a router price-wise. Thanks so much and don’t hesitate to tell me I’m asking too many questions 🙂

          1. Not asking too many questions at all 🙂 If you sign up for the 1 year plan for Comcast’s Xfinity 2go (which is about $50 per month for up to 5gb of usage per month) the device costs you nothing. If you don’t want to sign up for the yearly service and just pay as you go I believe the device cost about $100. Other providers (Sprint, etc) have similar services and devices.

    2. Just one last comment re: above stuff.

      I agree – coastal has a right to be upset with being called a Wishcaster and equally Brad should be upset with being called a Troll. There. I want everyone to be happy! 🙂 In the meantime, what is an Xfinity 3g Hotspot connection?

      1. That’s the best part of snow this time of year. It arrives. We enjoy. It leaves. Not that I don’t like it on the ground but it seems this time of year it’s the best of both worlds.

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