Friday January 6 2023 Forecast (7:16AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)

The caboose of elongated low pressure will cross our region from west to east today – a potent upper level disturbance and a relatively weak surface low, in the process of redeveloping just south of New England, before heading quickly out to sea to our east. The event will be in the form of rain for much of the South Coast and MA South Shore up to Boston and the immediate coast from the MA North Shore to the NH Seacoast, with these areas mixing with and eventually turning to snow before ending, with up to but mostly less than 1 inch of accumulation of snow. The precipitation, starting as either rain or snow further inland, will flip to mostly snow, and may fall moderately a couple times, otherwise will be mostly on the light side, and it is in these areas that a 1 to 3 inch snowfall is most likely, mainly west of the I-95, with the 3 inch amounts most likely to occur in the Monadnock region of NH to the hills of central MA. The entire system exits by Friday evening, but colder air will create icy conditions on untreated surfaces, except along the South Shore and South Coast where it may remain sufficiently above freezing during the night to prevent this. As the weekend arrives we then enter a quiet stretch of weather. There will be a modest delivery of colder air from Canada during the weekend, most noticeable on Sunday. Monday, a low pressure system is expected to pass far enough south of our region to be a miss by all except some high cloudiness. A weak trough may pass by Tuesday with some clouds, otherwise it looks dry with a general west to northwesterly air flow across the region.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog this morning. Mix to snow develops west to east, except rain to mix ending as a period of snow along and east of I-95. Snow accumulation 1-3 inches I-495 belt westward, except under 1 inch in the southern portion of the I-495 belt and across the I-95 belt, with no accumulation South Shore and South Coast. Temperatures steady 30-37, coldest in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early with snow/mix exiting quickly from west to east. Icy ground on untreated surfaces except MA South Shore and South Coast region. Lows 25-32 except 33-40 South Shore / South Coast, mildest Cape Cod. Wind N-NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)

The period starts with a shot of chilly air out of Canada, then the latest indications are high pressure to our north, low pressure to our south but far enough for mainly precipitation-free weather, but possibly with very limited sun, mid to late period. This is not a high confidence forecast, so pay attention to updates.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)

Continued lower than average forecast confidence in this time range. Best indications are for mild weather and a lack of storminess in the region, but with active Pacific jet stream flow we will have to keep an eye out for disturbances that are not seen well or timed well by guidance this far in advance especially as depicted crossing the continent.

74 thoughts on “Friday January 6 2023 Forecast (7:16AM)”

  2. big old flakes here. Flipped maybe a half hour ago. Snowing at a good clip. Let’s see what happens.

  3. After a rainy night the sun made a cameo appearance today – a nice surprise. I took advantage of it early this morning by running about 3 miles in a local park. European magpies – look very similar to magpies that you see in California and other Western states – are already busy building nests. It’s relatively early for nest activity. It is quite mild and the stretch has been long and will continue for the foreseeable future, according to the mets here. No signs of any cold air intrusions from the east (that’s where the lobes of cold air usually originate).

  7. Good morning. Thanks you, TK.

    No precip here at the moment. Sure glad the roads were not cold enough to freeze. This morning anyway.

    1. Thanks Mark. Finally a storm that I actually remember! 🙂

      As much snow that fell around here, it actually could have been even more.

  14. Thanks TK.

    Hopefully there won’t be too much of a flash freeze tonight/early tomorrow morning. Fingers crossed that there will be dry spots on the streets and sidewalks.

  16. Thanks TK
    I remember the blizzard of 96 quite well as it came in a winter where over a 100 inches of snow fell. There was even accumulating snow the second week of April in 96.

  17. Thanks, TK.

    Still waiting for a flake of snow. Radar showed snow over Sudbury hours ago and yet no snow. I think we are getting light rain. People are out w/umbrellas. I don’t hear sleet, either. I couldn’t remember the storm of 96 until I just thought of me driving home from a job in Waltham when they let us out early. It was snowing really heavy. I guess the Blizzard of 78 sticks out a lot w/me. On my way to work in Natick early that morning the sky was pink. We were let out early and my husband just made it home to Framingham from Quincy just before the cars started piling up. The winds were howling that night in 78 but we didn’t lose electricity.

  18. 12z Canadian for next Friday with a heavy thump of snow for SNE:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023010612&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Ends as mix but Kuchera Snowmap with 1-2 feet plus of snow for SNE, LOL….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023010612&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    The day the Pioneer Valley jackpots on a coastal storm with 3 feet of snow is the day I will streak nude across the Common 🙂

    1. 12z GFS also has a thump of snow before going over to mix and rain as the storm basically occludes itself on the east coast and the cold air retreats to Canada. Does not seem like a very plausible solution.

    2. Thanks Mark. It says Saturday 1/14….I think. Is that when the forecast is good thru with snow on 13th? I have my fifth booster for Friday so will watch and postpone if there is a storm

      1. The image from the CMC I posted above with heavy snow everywhere was 0z Saturday which would be 7PM next Friday. IF it were correct (which it is probably not), travel next Friday into Saturday would be messy.

  21. My neighborhood street has been pre-treated.

    The rain-snow line is collapsing closer to the coast. Boston’s dewpoint currently is at 35, needs to get to at least 32 for snowflakes.

  22. My son also just reported that it has been snowing in Coventry for the past 30 minutes. Still just rain here at the office in Manchester CT.

  24. Actually SNOWING here in JP. Not sure when it started as I have been busy, but clearly is snowing here now.

  27. It took over 2 hours but everything, including roads, has a light coating. I do not believe we have been pretreated unless it was very early before I woke up

  29. The event is behaving as expected, right on track in every aspect, and no adjustments are really needed at this time, nor do I believe any adjustments will be needed as we approach the end of the event in the next few hours.

    Reminder to watch for icy surfaces away from the immediate coast tonight and early tomorrow.

    I will take a look at latest guidance regarding future events when I take a short coffee break soon and comment if needed.

  30. Recent drive from Reading to Woburn was relatively simple. Moderate snow falling but most roads are just wet with a very thin slushy coating on a couple of the side roads. Grass and soil surfaces as well as cold cars are coated with under one half inch of snow as of 2:40 p.m.

  31. In Lunenburg we have an inch or two on grass, cars, and so on. The treated roads are mostly slushy and the others are turning white.

  32. What is that strange whiteness beginning to cover my lawn?
    Looks pretty. Why don’t we see this more often?

  34. Radar trends show the diminishment of the precipitation is underway from west southwest to east northwest, right on schedule.

    Looking ahead, no changes to my weekend forecast.
    Guidance is a little knife-edge regarding that system passing south of us on Monday – keeping an eye on the trends but still feel it will be a miss. May end up a little cloudier than, especially southern areas, if the system is slightly closer.

    Quiet much of next week but we do have to keep an eye to our south again late in the week. GEM, ECMWF, GFS are all trash today. Ensemble trends only. No operational runs really being considered at this time.

  36. Exceptionally mild here in the Netherlands. Haven’t had the heat on at all since I got here. [Admittedly, I’m someone who rarely turns on the heat if it’s more than 45F outside – I like it on the cool side inside, too] It’s 53F outside at 10pm. Just saw the weather forecast. The veteran forecaster, who I remember from when I lived here, said he sees no end in sight to the much milder than normal temperatures across most of Europe.

    1. Enjoy your trip Joshua. From mild weather pattern to mild weather pattern…you shouldn’t have much difficulty acclimating!

  38. 0.7 is my final here in Woburn.
    Looks like the expected amounts verified just fine.
    2 inches in Worcester and 3 in Fitchburg with mostly 1-2 inches elsewhere west of I-95 verifying the 1-3 inches forecast range.

    Less than 1 inch to the east also as expected.

    And that wraps up this event!

    The last raindrops and snowflakes are falling in the coastal areas now and will be offshore soon.

      1. Yes. I have an idea of what MAY happen, but it’s many days away and let me put it this way – JP Dave won’t be impressed if my idea is right. 😉

    1. Peter Gabriel released a new song today. He’s releasing one new song with each full moon this year until his new album is completely released. 🙂

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