Saturday January 7 2023 Forecast (8:00AM)

56 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)

Watch for black ice on untreated surfaces early this morning! The long stretch of early-in-the-year unsettled weather has ended, leaving us with fair weather for the first full weekend of January, as high pressure will be in control. It will be on the chilly side though, but not terribly cold, as we lack any kind of arctic air in the region or anywhere nearby right now. Low pressure passes south of the region Sunday night into Monday with some cloudiness, but keeping its precipitation shield to our south. A trough will pass through the area early Tuesday with some clouds, but snow shower activity associated with it should stay mostly to our north and east, with nothing more than a brief passing snow flurry possible at most. This will reinforce some chilly air as we head toward the middle of the week, as a high pressure area will sit over eastern Canada at that time.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy – least sun in the morning, most in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing snow shower possible through midday. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)

The confidence in trying to forecast this period of time remains lower than average. All medium range guidance indicates impact by low pressure sometime in the January 13-15 time range, but has not been consistent, with many different solutions between models and even run to run with the same model. Just keep in mind that an episode of unsettled weather is possible in there. No major warm ups or no major cold expected during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)

Low confidence outlook for near to above normal temperatures and a somewhat active storm tracking bringing 1 or 2 unsettled weather opportunities. No real detail is possible with this much uncertainty in the pattern this far out into the future.

56 thoughts on “Saturday January 7 2023 Forecast (8:00AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    so mild weather to continue for quite some time. Your “chilly” air is average at best and mostly above average, just chilly compared to the recent warm spell. No “real” cold in site. real cold to me is lows in teens, highs in 20s or colder. in other words cold to sustain pond skating.

    1. Since Boston’s average low is 24 and average high is 37 at this point they will be slightly above average.

      It has to be well below average for you to consider it cold weather. 🙂

      Pond skating can be sustained in “average” January weather just fine, but the problem is leading up to this the cold was too brief and mild lasted too long. There will likely be a period of “pond skating” weather as we head deeper into winter though. 🙂

      2. You need my kind of cold to be able to start skating, then it can be sustained with “average” cold. I don’t think it can ever get started with just “average” cold, at least not in the coastal plain.

  5. Thanks TK.

    The sky has a strange “bluish” tone this morning as opposed to those dark grays we’ve been accustomed to for the past week.

    It appears that MLK weekend will continue its “stormy” reputation around here this year, just not in the “type” of precipitation many of us here would prefer. Oh well.

    1. Too early to know precip-type, or if we even get anything at all. We could very well see 3 days of fair weather Saturday through Monday that weekend. It’s only a watcher period as far as I am concerned right now. Guidance is NOT dependable at all beyond 4 days.

    1. As you know, this style is very much to my liking as well. But then again, most styles are. 😉

        1. Love them! Bass is awesome. 🙂

          I think you’re going to like some of the stuff on the album Nate & I are making.

          There is a track on there that has an industrial / metal sound driven by a TSO-like guitar chug like you hear in their song “Wizards In Winter”.

          We also have a song on there with a time signature that’s never quite been done before… 🙂

  10. Thanks, TK!

    We had our first significant snowfall of 2022 a year ago today with a swath of a foot or more from Columbia CT to Burrillville RI to Walpole and Quincy MA. No school in Middleborough.

      1. I have a feeling we will get at least one good size storm. Based on absolutely nothing a s probably wishful thinking

        1. Based on our winter climate, odds favor at least one, so if you combine that with the wishful thoughts, the chances are there. 🙂

  13. Thanks TK!

    The next storm (Mon-Tue) coming in out here in CA looks really concerning. The last storm was basically a north-to-south oriented atmospheric river that moved through too fast to cause some of the devastating impacts there had been concerns about. There were some flooding issues, but its worst impacts were actually on the oceanfront due to extreme surf/coastal flooding and erosion. But this next one looks much longer in duration, with a southwest-northeast oriented atmospheric river which could train over the same areas for much longer and also take better advantage of upslope terrain effects. Not to mention the antecedent conditions are even more primed now. I hope there isn’t a false sense of security brought about by the last one being generally not quite as bad as feared.

    The higher elevations (>6500 ft) of the Sierras will at least be looking at a widespread 8 to 15 feet of snow.

    1. I saw a story last night that the hurricane hunters are flying into these atmospheric rivers, dropping the sondes and gathering lots of data. Hopefully that will help short and long term understanding these setups and forecasting them to an even more specific detail.

      1. Yep! That’s not a new concept, but seems like an expanded effort this year. Every bit of data helps.

  14. If you like a variety of fiction, follow the three major medium range models run to run over the next several days. 😉

    All joking aside, I’m actually kind of serious. That potential system is being handled poorly out this far and with the various biases including the continued broken status of the GFS we are going to see some interesting outcomes on these runs.

    FYE only..haha!

    I noticed the trend on the GFS is for a glorified frontal passage on the night of January 13 followed by fair weather for most of the weekend. Meanwhile the Canadian model thinks it’s April. 😉

  16. If anyone likes blues guitar…Seth Rosenbloom is doing an album release show at City Winery near North Station tonight at 8.

  17. Gray and occasional spitting rain this weekend. Mild; 49F at 9:45pm. A train of relatively weak areas of low pressure is traversing Ireland, Britain, and the low countries, on a daily basis. Besides Wednesday, no big wind storms, and not a whole lot of rain. Just a lot of overcast skies and periodic drizzle and light rain.

    Gray can actually make for good photography. Took quite a few photos in the city today.

  18. Euro model trending toward a glorified frontal passage on Friday night and a nice MLK Jr weekend.

  19. Has anyone here received the shingles vaccine. I received my first dose yesterday being 51 yrs old & boy I awoke today feeling like I got run over by a Mack truck . I even called out sick tomorrow & there is one more shot in April .

    1. I had mine not long ago. I reacted as did several of my friends. The person who gave me the vaccine said it was always known as the bad guy until the Covid vaccine came along. I reacted maybe a bit worse to all my Covid vaccines but not much.

      I’m so used to reacting that I can’t recall if I reacted to the second as strongly. I’ll ask my daughter

      1. I received the shingles vaccine with no real reaction whatsoever, same with my flu shot.
        However, back in October, I felt “flush” for a couple days after my Omicron Covid-19 (Moderna) booster. According to Vicki, that’s actually a good thing as the “reaction” means that the vaccine is really working.

        1. Indeed. I talked with a nurse today & she’s pretty sure it’s my body reacting to the shot . I’m telling you though I do feel good at all . Thanks guys

    2. I hope you feel better soon.

      I too had a pretty strong reaction to the shingles vaccine. If I remember correctly, starting about 10 hours after the first shot I felt out of it for about the next 10 hours. I scheduled the second shot for 10 hours before my bedtime. That way I was in bed anyway during most of the reaction.

      1. I forced myself to get out of bed at 10 so it’s 12 hours & plenty of Advil with only a little improvement. If I’m not better in the morning I’ll get tested for Covid

          1. Do you have home test kits? You are reacting exactly like I did and it sounds like SClarke but if you get a negative Covid home test it might ease your mind.

            Feel better. SSK

    1. Taken literally, a good amt of the front end dump in Boston would be wiped out by a temp jump into the mid 40s

  21. SSK, take good care. The shingles vaccine can really knock you out.

    It’s sunny in Amsterdam (well, on the outskirts of the city – I’m on a (recently) man-made island called Ijburg). Off in the distance – to the west – I do see clouds approaching. But I think it’ll be sunny most of this morning. A nice gift. On my run this morning I saw some wildlife in a nearby park, including a pheasant.

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