Sunday January 8 2023 Forecast (7:43AM)

100 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)

High pressure brings fair but chilly weather to our region during today. Low pressure passes south of the region late tonight into Monday, close enough to drag its shield of cloudiness across our sky but far enough to keep its precipitation to our south. A trough swings through the region early Tuesday delivering some reinforcement of seasonably chilly air into the region. As we head through midweek, we’ll have to keep an eye on high pressure in eastern Canada and a boundary to our south, which eventually becomes an avenue for low pressure. I’m not trusting guidance handling of the set-up very much but what I think may take place is an initial disturbance tries to make a run at our region but doesn’t quite manage to survive at midweek, with a more formidable system approaching by later Thursday. Bottom line is my leaning is toward more clouds for midweek than actual storminess, with the latter likely holding off.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: High to middle clouds overspread the sky. Lows 22-29. Wind W to SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Considerably cloudy beginning trending to a mostly sunny finish. Highs 38-45. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing snow shower possible through midday. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)

Low pressure passing through the Northeast early in the period with with a track that favors rain over snow, and another frontal boundary may approach by the end of the period, with a dry holiday weekend between. Temperatures near to above normal overall, but a brief shot of cold air behind the initial storm system.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)

Low confidence outlook for above normal temperatures and a somewhat active storm tracking bringing 1 or 2 unsettled weather opportunities. Odds would favor low pressure tracks through the Midwest / Great Lakes and rain over snow for this area, but much can change between now and then so only take this is a general idea for now.

100 thoughts on “Sunday January 8 2023 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    nice late March/early April forecast
    Does not resemble Winter as remember.

    1. It resembles some winters we have had around here. 🙂
      Our variety is the real deal. 😉

        2. Most of the 1980s, for one example. 🙂
          The “snow drought” decade.
          5 years at college and we had ONE snow day – in FIVE years. 😉 Granted, my school did not cancel that often when others did, but it was still an abysmal decade for snow lovers outside of a handful of storms (12-6-1981, 4-6-1982, 2-13-1983, 3-29-1984, and if you were in the right places a couple in the later 1980s).

  4. Thanks TK.

    Much colder this morning compared to yesterday, more like a typical winter’s day.

    I guess we can write off January for the first widespread significant snow. On to Cincinnati…I mean, February! 😉

    1. On the 8th day of this month, we can not write off January. Not by a long shot. Trust me.

  5. The credit balance on my oil bill is pretty substantial compared to prior years at this time. There’s nothing in the current pattern that suggests I’ll be eating into that anytime soon. Make it to February that way? Wouldn’t bet against it.

  6. The “write-off winter” posts are all over social media now. Does anybody ever learn? 🙂

    1. Oh I’ve learned, I am not writing off winter by any means…just one month at a time as I did above. Lol. 😀

      1. Oh I wasn’t talking about you. 😛
        You’re just trying to kill January. I mean there are people out there, as of 4, 5, 7 days ago, that have written off the entire winter.

        In no way am I saying we’ll be having a 2014-2015 winter, but that winter is a good (albeit extreme) example of how we can get to nearly the mid point with one of the lowest snow totals we’ve ever had and end up with the highest (at Boston) on record. There is SO much time left and our models may give us an idea that the next couple weeks are not ideal, but that doesn’t mean much of anything, especially given how this guidance performs and the things it cannot see in advance.

  9. This is a really tough time for good, competent meteorologists who take pride in delivering quality forecasts for their service area or content consumers.

    1) Well documented the complete mess model output is and its not just the GFS. Just 3 days ago the ECMWF was adverting 3-4″ of rain in SNE during a long duration event around the 14th. The CMC/GEM/GDPS (or whatever it is named today) wanted to give the Mid CT River Valley of MA about 30″ of snow. The record single event snowfall in the mid valley areas is still less than 24″ in most areas, in other words a fantasy forecast. So all the data is messy and combined with a somewhat anomalous to climo pattern it becomes difficult to sort out the model noise and identify specific model error, and instead just recognizing it is all garbage. Even today the ECMWF is picking up a midweek shortwave that really wasn’t there 2 runs ago and makes me question even day 3 / 4 forecasts.

    2) Another struggle is this winter has evolved in a way many of us did not see coming, meaning our own confirmation biases look to get our prognostications back on track. No one likes to be wrong and I know I can suffer from-let me see how I can fix my error syndrome…

    3) The noise, Noise, NOISE!! Yes, I am yelling in my head. So much out there. You see many online forecasters, many niche carved alarmists, or just plain outright frauds, but yes even some forecasters are quite good, but may fall into category 2 above, that every time a model run trends towards cold and / or snowy they trumpet for all who can see and hear that the pattern change is coming and the east coast is about to get buried! No the pattern has not changed, one model run, in a time period well documented for inconsistent to purely unreliable data, showed a pattern you wanted and you know will get the masses to repost, retweet, and consume more of your content. It prays on weather content consumers who are fascinated by winter weather, who yearn for it, and even those who have anxiety about it. Most of what is online and retweeted is just utter BS.

    Not really sold on much if anything from the sudden appearing shortwave nor the past 3″-4″ rain solution. I think TK mentioned more of a frontal passing Friday maybe into early Saturday morning then fair and cooler weather for the “always stormy MLK weekend”

    After my blown thoughts on December, I started to think the 2nd half of January might look more favorable for a more traditionally winter pattern. Not likely. We will see what February brings. I have little confidence about February and March. More confidence in a potentially very dry, but somewhat below average temperature Summer than I am in February prognostications.

    1. 100% agree with every word.
      Your opening line is a bullseye (as is the rest of the post). 🙂
      Always enjoy reading your thoughts here -thank you for sharing them. 🙂

      I definitely heard Boris Karloff at the start of #3. 😉

  10. I think I’m going to get 4/5 of my wish for the coming week with the windows. By day 5, they should be down to the 3rd floor, which has 9 windows to replace, if all goes according to schedule. If that has to be delayed out to the following Monday, I’d be ok with that. Take any 3-day period in the winter in this part of the country and odds are you will be impacted by at least one disturbance / low pressure area. Well, we still will be, but the trough that passes through early Tuesday and the initial low pressure that makes a run at us midweek will all be non-impact for this project. And with the lack of arctic air about, I’ll take that too. I think Friday though we may indeed see something of more impact, weather-wise. But that could set us up for nice stretch of dry weather just in time for the holiday weekend.

  11. I couldn’t be more pleased the way this winter is going. I might have to undergo a fusion surgery on my fractured right ankle when I slipped on black ice under a coating of snow two years ago. The screws and plates might have to be removed orthopedic surgeon is reevaluating, Hopefully not. I’m very pleased with the dry conditions underfoot so far this winter.

    1. Wishing you the best! Glad the weather is helping you in that way! I’m not complaining one iota either that it’s been very quiet so far for reasons you’ve read about as well as having a delayed start to the holiday season / decorations / etc. when I had covid.

      We’ll pay for this eventually – we always do, but for now, take advantage!

  12. As benign as our weather has turned out so far, the West – different story. I have some relatives in the PNW and friends out that way too who have been posting on social media or otherwise telling me that this is easily the harshest winter (to-date, it’s still early) they have seen, or at least gone through in a very long time. A friend of mine who lives in inland Washington has been posting weekly pictures and you’d think she lives in the Yukon, and this started even before winter – back in November.

    The haves and have-nots is very much the story in this 3rd year La Nina pattern, and you know, some of the fine mets we have in this year posted some information saying that this has been the case in some of the very limited amount of times we’ve had a triple-dip. Here it is again then. Should have factored that more into my winter forecast, but JMA explained that part nicely above. 🙂

    Ok, I am off the blog probably for most of the day from here. This is the final day of prep (taking down decorations and clearing out by all the windows). They come tomorrow at 7 a.m.!

    Cheers all!

  13. Hasn’t February been our biggest snow month as of recent years? All I can say is just wait for it as it’s only early January and I need to test out my new electric snowblower!

    1. February is often the snowiest month of the winter.
      I think in the long term average, Boston averages slightly higher in January, but probably because January has 3 more days than February does. But during the peak + phase of AMO, later winter and spring tends to be colder and/or snowier, and we’ve seen quite a bit of that. Note: We’re still learning about AMO, so that’s not a solid conclusion, but an early observation.

  14. I’ve decided to write off January.

    Not for snow, mind you, just for me following through with any resolutions.

    1. HAHA! I never make anyway to begin with. They are set-ups for failure. I just try to be the best I can be each year, sometimes with more success than other times. But the effort is there.

  15. We have had very limited times in which the ENSO has gone through a 3rd year many were putting it that the changing climate made those analogs not worth weighting heavily ( myself included). That was a mistake many in the hurricane season forecasts & now winter. What is something that is going on as well is that we also have not seen certain SST configurations in a long time. Its really hard to find analogs with even similar configurations this year. All I know is that when we do have El-Nino the amount of heat energy that is going to be released from the ocean is going to send our global atmospheric temperature average through the roof.

  16. Thanks TK. Tons of great discussion on the blog today. I’ll probably have some more to add on this winter and the general state of “winters in New England” at some point. But the biggest thing of course is that you can never write off winter this early.

    FWIW, one piece of the puzzle in terms of getting winter back in the East will fall into place soon. After a near monthlong reign, the Pacific jet is finally going to shut down, at least temporarily, in about a week. It’ll still take a little more time for the residual air mass to work its way through the system, and we’ll have to see what the remaining teleconnections look like by then. But I would expect a trend to colder in the East by about 1/25. Which of course to many will feel like just kicking the proverbial can down the road, and there’s no telling whether the Pacific may come back to life sooner than later. But there should at least be a decent wintry window for the East at some point late this month and/or early next.

    In the meantime, this upcoming storm continues to look very ugly for California. WPC mentioning an upgrade to high risk – very rare – is possible in their excessive rainfall outlook.

    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

    1. My prayers and best wishes are with the folks in CA today. From flooding to power failure this just looks ugly. I spoke with my BIL and SIL last night. They to,d me there was some discussion of evacuating around the Russian river, but it looked then (last night) that might not be necessary.

  20. Popping in quickly during my lunch break.
    Hard not to feel good for the Bills team seeing how that game started, but from here on in GO PATS! We need this win!

    Yes, it’s beyond day 4, but all 3 major models continue to say “earlier & faster” with the late week storm .. timing later Thursday & Friday. If that’s right, it’s high pressure ridging moving in for the long weekend and great winter weather, starting out windy & chilly and transitioning toward tranquil with a milder trend. Far from the final call – it’d be a hypocrite if I said this was and will be the solution. Watch the trends / watch for consistency.

    Have a great day! And thanks also WxW!

    Go Pats! Go Bruins (tonight)!

    1. I went through darn near a box of tissues with that first play. If the pats win, I’d be happy. The bills have always been a favorite of mine; but even if they had not been , if the bills win, I’m betting I’ll celebrate equally.

      I’m not rooting against my team. I’m rooting just as hard for a team that just went through a horrific experience.

      1. I understand that. I’ve never hated the Bills at all. I like Buffalo in general. I don’t root for their teams against ours but otherwise when they do well I don’t mind at all. 🙂

  21. Thanks, TK.

    Weird watching the Bills-Patriots in the Netherlands with only a few commercials. During most U.S. commercial breaks the TV here does analyses of the game, replays, and recaps of the playoff picture. I’ve only seen 2 brief commercials so far. Given that I can’t stand commercials, I think I’d prefer watching American football in the Netherlands. I’m fluent in Dutch so I can understand the commentary.

    1. When you bring up being fluent in Dutch I always think of the scene in Miracle On 34th Street – I bet you know exactly the scene I mean, assuming you’ve seen the movie. 🙂

    2. Very interesting. I wouldn’t mind either if their announcers are better than ours. Ours get on my nerves more than commercials.

      In general many European countries handle coverage of sports better than we…..the Olympics come immediately to mind.

      Enjoy, Joshua!!

      1. I love listening to the game on radio. Best radio announcer in the market. Zo on color is fun to listen to too. 🙂

  22. Dare I say the models are starting to repeat a solution for the medium range system? I feel like today’s 00z and 12z runs have been more consistent.

      2. Primary going west ….. somewhat of a chilly high in retreat.

        Also, some kind of additional warm air advection light snow perhaps a day before the bigger system, which looks like rain or snow to rain.

        Of course, that’s just today what they are saying 🙂

  23. Game now is going to get out of hand , bills pumped & it’s full throttle !!! 14 points like that !!

    1. They couldn’t at least make it a bit “interesting” at the end!! >:-(

      BB and Bob Kraft have some HUGE, HUGE soul searching to do during the offseason to say the LEAST!!

  24. Tony Romo Sucks as an announcer, he favors certain teams, he really hates the Patriots and loves it when any team can beat them .
    WIth this loss, I have mix feelings, in one hand I always like the Patriots going to the playoffs in the other better draft pick.
    In another, I am hoping that with this the Patriots fire Matt Patricia, get him off the team, hire O’Brian or Chad O’Shea as OC.
    What I think happens is thaat Mayo is given the DC tittle but is still split between Bill’s son and Mayo. If not Mayo leaves which would be bad I think for both parties.
    After this season of bad special teams, move Joe Judge to Special teams coordinator where he actually was good.

    This is not on Mac Jones at all, we have seen that. I sometimes thing he plays hero at times but he is usually forced into that such as today.

    In terms of who the patriots should look at in the offseason for players.
    Offense has the talent but could use a more solid TE and a solid consistent slot receiver GET RID OF Aghlor and smith and target Cardinals for a Hopkins.

    1. Oh by the way, on one of the kick of returns, there was a block to the back that was not called. The refs were not throwing penalties

      1. But Romo on every questionable call on pats he was like nope he’s not in , nope not that & so on as it was obvious

      2. You’re right. Romo is silly, but he loves the game and has a kid-like approach. I can identify with that and I like it. He does not hate the Pats. Every fan base for some weird reason thinks every announcer and ref is against them. It’s simply not true, at least in terms of their jobs. Personally, they can think whatever they want and I don’t give a flying squirrel’s nut shells. 🙂 Too many fans take this stuff WAY too personally. Just watch the games and root for your team. 🙂

  25. Kind of a wasted season for the Pats. All on coaching. So many games they basically choked away. Vikings, Raiders, Bengals at a minimum were all easily winnable, and would’ve made today irrelevant.

    Assuming some normal progression from some of the young guys, I really think they’re only an incremental step of improvement on the O and D lines, one more offensive skill player, and an upgrade somewhere in the secondary from being a real threat.

    But they have to get better on coaching. I’d like to see Bill go, and bring in a coach who understands how football is played in 2023. But at a minimum, Patricia cannot be an offensive coach, and they have to get rid of the overall incompetence factor that bit them all year.

    1. I like your approach. At least you’re focusing on the team and the system that has its flaws. Yes, we knew it might be rough after the Brady era, but there are things that could have been done better to make it that we didn’t have to win a game against a really good team, on the road, to get into the playoffs. There were some fun games to watch, and some frustrating mistakes made. That’s football of course, but ouch some of those stung. 😉

      1. Yep!

        And I regret doubting Mac Jones early in the year. He actually impressed me doing the best he could in a bad system, and I have a feeling he was still fighting some real pain from his injury for a lot of the year. He’s not gonna be Josh Allen, but they can win with him, with a little more help and better play calls. There’s gonna be some calls for a change at QB, but I don’t think that’s the answer. It’s coaching.

        1. I felt for Mac when he would make a good play negated by some bizarre time-out call that wasn’t needed or any number of other silly things that happened.

          I get that there are mistakes made, but there just seemed to be far too many of those that would wipe out a big gain, a first down, or even a touchdown.

        2. Again I agree. Although I never doubted him. He has the mechanics. But he need a coach(es) who do not demoralize him.

          He has to grow a bit. He’s tried a few dirty tricks which is something I find unacceptable

          And for the record….although I love that his name is mac, that has nothing to do with my support 🙂

          1. Agree on the “dirty tricks”, and he needs to be held accountable for his development, or there really will be a QB controversy. I was worried coming into this season that Pats fans had hyped themselves up too much for him this year and that a sophomore slump was possible. But now I think there’s the opposite concern – giving up on him prematurely. And Bill is never gonna take accountability for the team’s failures, even though I think he’s the prime reason for them, so Mac is an easy scapegoat.

  26. WX I totally agree with your post above . I believe it’s 100% time to cut ties with coach BB & Patricia should have been canned as soon this game ended as he has no place on this team & the players do not want him on this team ( however he had an ok plan today , but fire him . Pats need to look At Mayo or possibly Mcourty on defense if he retires & also fire bills kid . I think on the defensive side things look ok ( but add another couple of key guys ( possibly veterans) As far as offense they need an experienced guy ( Obrian ) who can right this problem ( huge problem ) As far as Mack I’m not sold on him yet ( I’d say with a good offensive coordinator & some more help on offense, give him one more year to prove himself as I think Patricia caused not all but a lot of his problems. They also need a new special teams coach . So in closing MR Kraft who has been pissed on a lot of things the last couple of years has to grow some balls & be a man & take control of this disaster as it’s only going to get worse . I hope Slater & Mcourty stay , but I think there gone . If I were Kraft now I’d be having private conversations with Brady & beg him to come back under a new head coach & offensive coordinator as I think he’s going to say see ya Tampa

    1. I definitely agree on Bill. Not saying he isn’t a Hall of Fame coach. But he’s not a 2023 coach, and now the combination of his ego and his 1960s coaching style is crushing the team. But I also recognize it’s a pipe dream – he’ll be there until he decides to go.

      It still amazes me that both Bill and Brady didn’t retire together after the Rams Super Bowl. They had absolutely nothing left to prove, it would’ve been the ultimate “go out on top”. And sure, Brady got himself another ring, but look what’s happened in his personal life. And Bill is increasingly making it look like Brady carried him with the job he’s done since Brady left. Makes no sense to me. Only explanation, as a lot of people kind of assumed, is that those two did not have a particularly good relationship, for whatever reason(s).

      I don’t think Brady is the Pats answer, especially long term (obviously) but I understand the point of view.

      1. Agree on BB I don’t think Kraft can do it ( but Jonathan I think could) listen I put BB on the highest pedestal but I can’t anymore. He definitely is an amazing coach but I think he should just call it a career as I think as good as he is , he’s not where he once was & I just can’t take his Ego much longer . In my opinion he lost the locker room this year . As much as I’d like Bill gone for next season he will probably be here unless he does not like what Kraft has too say because it is out there that Kraft has seen enough , time will tell if that’s true .

    2. Sort of on board about BB but more on board about Patricia. I thought he was a mistake from the word GO. Defense YES, but offense, NO. (Even on D time is passing him by.)

      As for BB, there are players past and present who do not like him, but the team won lots of championships under him. He is a hall-of-famer.

        2. I think it was the combination of the two, I don’t buy the whole it was one over the other person. We have seen that since they both split.

          1. Kind of. But Brady ( and my memory may be failing me) took the Bucs a Super Bowl win, two division titles and three playoffs. I don’t think BB compares. And I could be wrong.

  28. Anyone who thinks Belichick is going to get fired is delusional. He has more than earned the right to go out on his own terms, and even Kraft understands that. He’s 18 wins shy of Don Shula for the most wins ever by a coach. Once he gets that record (likely in 2024), he’ll retire.

    2. He only won’t because Kraft doesn’t have the balls to do it , you understand what I’m talking about . He’s an ignorant old man !!

    3. Besides the common insult, SAK unwittingly makes my point here. I’m not sure if breaking Shula’s record is why BB wants to stay, or if he just does it because he knows no one will kick him out, or if it’s a combination of both. But it makes the problem obviousness: his stubbornness and ego. Coaching for himself and not the good of the team. Not saying he’s not a great coach. But I don’t think he’s the coach this team needs right now.

      That’s enough sports for me tonight though 🙂

      3. You’ve missed a very key point – if he’s not coaching for the good of the team, then they won’t win, and he won’t get the record. So that essentially invalidates your entire argument.

  29. In terms of Bill, I do not think he should be fired as a head coach unless he keeps Matt Patricia and Joe Judge on the offensive coaching staff. Send Joe Judge to Special teams fire Matt Patricia and let him go be that rocket scientist that people say he has a degree in. In terms of the offense, I think alot of that has to do with the OC that the Patriots have had, think about it, the Patriots have had Charlie Weise, Josh McDaniels & O’Brian. All 3 are top tier OC’s with or without Brady. This is why if I was Bill, I would be talking to O’Brian, Chad O’Shea and oh also Weise’s kid to be OC. This is also why I do not think it was one or the other when it comes to Bill vs Tom. It was the combination of the two. We as Patriot fans had something great for 20 years and many great head coaches fall once they lose their quarterback. The Patriots are still relevant and I think what is going on is the Patriots will be going through alot of changes over the next 5 years. I could see a sitaution in which Robert Kraft send way more to his son in terms of the team, I could see Bill mentoring someone on staff to become the head coach for another two years ( when I think his current contract is over) then hanging it up as a GM. I do not mind how Bill deals with the media, the media can ask very stupid questions, but when you ask a good football question, Bill opens up. You hear many of his player’s saying that the media does not see the real Bill which I bet its mainly true.

  30. Had Brady retired right after his last SB win #7, he would have still been married now. It should have been obvious to him that Gisselle is clearly not a “football wife” and feared for his safety. I can understand his love for the game. Brady could have easily been a color football analyst as any network would have loved to have had him and payed him plenty, whatever the going rate is and then some. Commentators would have loved to have been able to pick Brady’s brain every week on his analysis of various teams and players. I really can’t picture Brady as coach even though he certainly has plenty of game knowledge. I could picture him as a politician though.

    Sorry, I just hate to see marriages break up especially when kids are involved (as long as there’s no infidelity or violence involved of course). Brady blew off his marriage AFAIC. Oh well. I’ll still root for him for SB #8 though.

    2. We’re on the outside looking in. I don’t think it does anyone a service to judge blame when they’re not involved with intimacies of a relationship, imo.

      1. Very good point, Dr.

        A lot of fair points here. Good and respectful discussion. Thanks Dr, WxW, Philip, Longshot, TK, SSK, Matt Tk thanks for allowing the non weather discussion.

  31. Experiencing another day of very typical winter weather in Holland. Though it’s slightly milder than normal today (46F), the weather type is same as it ever was (to quote David Byrne of the Talking Heads): Light rain showers, followed by a few glimpses of the sun, followed by a heavier rain shower, then some drizzle, and now the sun is trying to come out again. It’s rare to have this weather type in Boston, especially for days on end. It’s very normal in this part of the world. My metaphor is a train; in this case of areas of low pressure, one after another and no end in sight. High pressure does occasionally take over, but not often in winter. The predominant wind direction is southwest, and the barometer almost always indicates relatively low pressure.

    By the way, Mike Tomlin is the best coach I’ve ever seen in my many decades of watching football. 16 years as head coach of the Steelers and not a single losing season. Remarkable. He’s also a great talent evaluator. And, he actually answers questions at press conferences. To top it off he’s a players’ coach.

  32. TK, yes indeed I do know the scene you’re referencing from Miracle on 34th Street.

    The Dutch TV commentators (during the Bills-Patriots game) were pretty good. One of them really understood the game, which in itself is an achievement. Football isn’t an easy game. During our (U.S.) commercial breaks, the two commentators would break down the most recent drive by one of the teams, replaying each play and analyzing it. When there were ads they were VERY different from ours. No beer ads. No car ads. No prescription drug ads. An ad for milk. An ad for cheese. An ad for a fashion store. And several ads for vacation cruises and getaways.

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