Monday January 9 2023 Forecast (7:01AM)

59 Comments

QUICK NOTE

With a major project ongoing at home this week, there is a possibility that a couple days the blog may be late, or very brief, and if I’m lucky, that won’t be the case. My ability to check in will also be limited, but I’ll do it when I can.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)

The weather during this work week (Monday-Friday) will be fairly quiet until we get to the end of it. First, a quick shot of rain and some wet snow for southeastern areas with low pressure passing to our south early today before the system moves out and clouds give way to sun. A weak trough swings through early Tuesday, but you won’t really notice it, because it’s not really going to do anything, and then high pressure in eastern Canada keeps us dry with a bit of a chill in the air into midweek. As low pressure gets organized in the Midwest Thursday, its warm front will spread a deck of clouds into our region, but right now other than a little spotty light rain or snow, mostly to our north, I’m not really expecting much to happen with this front. The low center will pass to our northwest on Friday, which will be an unsettled day with a gusty breeze and periods of rain likely, but also above normal temperatures, as the mild side of our ongoing La Nina pattern continues.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with a touch of rain possible Outer Cape Cod and Islands, then increasing sun. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 26-33. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog developing. Temperatures steady 37-44 evening then rising slowly overnight. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 43-50, mildest South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)

The MLK Jr. weekend looks generally dry but evolving from breezy and chilly Saturday with a sun/cloud mix to a sunnier and chilly but more tranquil Sunday, to a variably cloudy holiday with a slight temperature moderation but a possible onshore breeze, depending on orientation of high pressure. Watching the end of the period for a frontal system from the west passing by with milder air, rain showers, then cooler/drier air behind it – but confidence is low on details and timing since it’s pretty far into the future.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)

This looks like a drier period that trends somewhat cooler to colder as we lose the Pacific flow and gradually re-introduce Canadian air to our region. Somewhere around mid period watch for a fast moving system with a little bit of precipitation.

59 thoughts on “Monday January 9 2023 Forecast (7:01AM)”

  4. Thanks TK, good luck with the project.

    Blizzard conditions here.

    Ok, maybe some wet snow mixed with snow grains and ice pellets.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Good luck on your windows.

    Brief light snow fell during my commute. I didn’t think the snow would make it as far north as Boston. No big deal anyway, not even a dusting as far as I can tell.

    I still believe that we will have our turn for snow come February, assuming the Pineapple Express pattern breaks down by then. Time to give up on January, even this far out.

    Both Worcester and Boston are already a foot plus below normal for the season to date.

  10. Thank TK. Hope project goes smoothly.

    No snow here but just took a quick peak out window. I could have slept through it

  11. https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KSFO.html

    Temp and dp in San Francisco is 61F/57F

    so, this system’s approach definitely is bringing in relatively mild/warm air and is raising, for now, the snow levels in the Sierra.

    In fact, its 35F and raining at lake level at Lake Tahoe, where on the webcams, there is a TON of snow on the ground at lake level.

    Thus, until the cool front passes and lowers the snow levels later on, there is opportunity to really flood the mtn rivers with copious amts of rain and increasing snow melt today.

    1. Thanks, Tom, for these updates. Mac’s brother said the ground is like a sponge and they are worried about power loss. I passed on a few things I do if power is in question but it sure looks as if it will potentially be a mess

  14. I’m following Drew Tuma and Darren Peck out of San Francisco. Only because I searched for names of Mets in the area and they popped up. Does anyone have other recommendations? Thank you.

    1. Roberta Gonsalez and Darren Peck are the two I know, though I confess I don’t tend to get my weather info from local TV mets these days

  19. I know the calendar says it is Winter, but I was just out without a coat and I am telling you it AIN’T Winter. What a beautiful
    Early Spring Day. This is PATHETIC!!!

  21. Greetings from a 50 degree “office” at WHW. 😉
    I was able to steal a moment before I commence moving the last of the things from the entire 2nd floor of the house.

    Progress report. Seems a little miscommunication between the rep and the installers. Since August we were told that they’d be starting on the 1st floor, progressing to the 2nd, and then the 3rd. Well, this morning, we were informed by the installers that they would be starting on floor 3 and progressing downward. All well and good, but it prompted some last minute scrambling to get some things done that were planned for today / tonight.

    After all that, 9 windows on floor 3 are DONE and look fabulous.

    The updated agenda is for 13 windows on floor 2 to be done tomorrow, completing the floor. They have one extra crew member and 1/2 hour earlier start time so that should be no problem.

    Wednesday/Thursday will be floor 1.

    Friday will be the 4 doors (2 groups of 2), and that is undercover somewhat so having rain and even some wind will not really be an issue.

    So after that initial shuffle, things are realigned and the project time line is looking great!

    I had a moment to glance at the guidance. I don’t really buy what the models are selling regarding the back-up low for Saturday. Overdone. The trend will be to back off on that and while it may start a little messy first thing Saturday, we’re in for a generally fair 3-day weekend.

    Take care all!

  22. The Euro and Canadian did that last night, and I mentioned it in my blog, but didn’t go with it. The fact that all the models have it now gives it a little more viability in my eyes, and maybe Saturday won’t be as nice as we initially thought, but I’m not completely sold on it yet either.

    Of more interest to me is what the GFS does with the ocean storm about 8-10 days out. None of the other models have it, but it certainly is an interesting solution.

    1. Certainly the potential for a less nice Saturday than I might have been thinking, but I don’t think the immediate surface temps behind the departing and then potentially backing up precip will be cold enough to leave anywhere east of the eastern hills of the Berkshires with accumulating snow on the ground. Also think any heavier bands of precip, to help bring down cold air will be closer to Albany than Framingham…

  23. 18z GFS operational run … byebye Saturday storm threat.
    In fact, rain is over before dawn on Friday on that run. Way, way, WAY different than the run before.

    #GFSisWickedBusted

  24. Thanks TK.

    Very depressing looking at the model runs out through the next two weeks with respect to the overall pattern. Pacific air continuing to flood the nation, several cutters, and above normal temps continuing throughout the East.

    We are heading up to Sunday River ME the weekend of the 20th and I am not expecting much terrain to be open. I can deal with the lack of snow here but when you can’t even get sustained enough cold air in the mountains to consistently make snow, let alone get any natural snow, and then you are hit with a rainstorm and flash freeze every week, it is fighting a losing battle.

    1. Meanwhile, if you actually look at the Euro Ensemble mean out to 360, it shows 1.5″ for Boston.

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2023010912&fh=360&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

      The GFS Ensemble Mean out to 384 shows right around a 50% chance of 1″ total, but for snowfall has a mean of 4″ for Boston.

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2023010912&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

      So, take the probability maps, especially that far out, with a huge grain of salt.

      1. Indeed, but the one consistency regardless what you look at is a paltry amount of snow modeled over the next couple weeks.

  26. Some hope for winter weather enthusiasts in the latest Euro weeklies FWIW. Next two weeks are toast but the pattern flips to more ridging out West in weeks 3 and 4 bringing some colder weather into the East. Then a moderation but still seasonably cold for weeks 5 and 6.

    So a better pattern for winter weather chances perhaps as we get into the week of Jan 22 and especially the week of Jan 29 into early Feb. IF the Euro weeklies are correct.

  28. Ricky Costa
    @RickyCo60315168
    1h
    Replying to
    @ericfisher

    What are your thoughts on February? Some people say torch, others say there are signs of a pattern change.. idk what to believe

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    1h
    Replying to
    @RickyCo60315168

    I think it’s a long way off. There are signs that we could be in a somewhat better pattern for cold/snow in late Jan/early Feb. But wary of MJO rotating into the “warm” phases and typical La Nina forcing (which is a SE Ridge in Feb)

  30. More from Tomer:

    Tomer Burg
    @burgwx
    22h

    I’ve gotten this question a lot recently, and while many are on track for a near record late start to the snow season, it’s still too early to say winter is over with high confidence.

    1. We see more signs emerging of a W US ridge towards the last week of January.

    2. It will take a while for temperatures to cool down from the anomalous warmth past mid-month. Even with a potential E US trough in the last week of January, the source region of the airmass in Canada is still anomalously warm as the deep cold is bottled up in the Arctic.

    3. There remain signs of a *potential* sudden stratospheric warming event, or at the very least a weakening of the anomalously strong polar vortex, going into early February. Still far too early for specific details, but this may have an impact on sfc weather later in Feb/Mar.

    1. What an awful choice of maps he used. That is the snapshot at 12z on Friday. If you look at the anomaly for the entire day, temperatures in Montana will be on par with New England with respect to normal. In fact, a few places in Montana will be warmer than normal compared to New England.

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