Tuesday January 10 2023 Forecast (7:58AM)

62 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)

A very quick update this morning… No big changes to yesterday’s ideas. Weak trough swinging through early today with clouds, then dry air returns into midweek with high pressure to the north. Watching low pressure for later this week. Models remain inconsistent and divergent and the overall idea remains the same. Unsettled weather (more clouds than precipitation) with a warm front Thursday, and low pressure tracking northwest of us Friday with a “glorified frontal passage” with rain, some heavy, and gusty winds (probably not damaging though). Improvement, while potentially slow at first, should be here in time for the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog developing. Temperatures steady 37-44 evening then rising slowly overnight. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 43-50, mildest South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds break. Showers end. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers possible early favoring eastern areas. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)

High pressure brings dry weather for the balance of MLK Jr. Weekend. Frontal system from the west brings unsettled weather mid period. Fair, chilly, dry weather late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)

This looks like a drier period that trends somewhat cooler to colder as we lose the Pacific flow and gradually re-introduce Canadian air to our region. Somewhere around mid period watch for a fast moving system with a little bit of precipitation.

62 thoughts on “Tuesday January 10 2023 Forecast (7:58AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    My daughter has dance around 5 to 5:30 most days and so, were on the road most days starting a bit before that to get her there on-time.

    With the clear skies last evening, I really noticed the extended twilight for the first time, which was great !

    I saw a few posts about a possible meteor seen in the skies last evening. I missed it.

    2. I noticed both extended day and saw posts about meteor which I also missed. Darn. I normally prefer earlier dark in winter. Now that I’m driving very little at night, if at all, I’m liking the longer days also.

  6. Thanks TK.

    This morning a local tv newscaster had a perhaps similar premature type quote of “winter is over”. He said “the winter that wasn’t” as if it’s already time to move on to spring.

      1. The winter that “isn’t” is more accurate for now as the season has technically not concluded as of yet.

  7. Thanks, TK. Good luck with windows. Hopefully, the state has a good rebate for you. Although, I’m still waiting for mine for heat pump….only been six months 😈

  8. Red Sox Truck Day is 3 weeks from Friday.

    Pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers 5 weeks from today.

    Opening Day is 79 days from today.

  9. Any time people declare winter as over I just remind people that some of our bigger storms of recent memory have come in February. I view winter as a slasher killer from a 1970s flick – it’s not really dead and it’s going to come for you when you least expect it.

  10. Thanks, TK. Good luck with the windows.
    Noticed the slightly longer twilight yesterday, too. Didn’t see any meteors.

    I firmly believe winter is not over yet. I agree w/Dr. Stupid. Winter could easily surprise us. We’ve seen a lot of snow even in April. Only difference is that the later the snow comes the quicker it melts. (usually – but can’t say for sure seeing how crazy the weather has been all over the place.) I feel so bad for those out in CA. I know some people there.

    1. Awesome to see you. In truth, and despite my snark earlier, winter is winter with or without snow.

      I say it with every season,,,,and there can be exceptions ….but as a whole, the seasons are shifting. Perhaps season is not the correct word since weather does not define season.

  11. Winter is not even at the one month mark . Anyone that says winter is over , well it’s far from over . Even I who you all know hates winter I know there will be payback at some point. In my opinion as well , winters sure do not seem like they were when I was growing up , they seem easier to handle .

    1. True, but I don’t like the trends.

      You know, I could actually get used to this weather.

      When I am truly ready for Spring and cleaning up my fishing gear ready to hit the water, THEN it will SNOW and SNOW and SNOW!!!

  13. I understand this La Niña has been consistently moderate the past 2+ years and some data suggests it’s been waning the last few months, but in my opinion, our pattern has had many characteristics of a moderate to strong El Niño.

  14. As WxW mentioned yesterday, there are a couple things that make the pattern a bit more favorable in the future, but today I noticed one that is a negative factor if you want snow. MJO basically skirts through phases 8 & 1 but nearly neutral, then strengthens while moving rapidly from phases 2 through 4. Not a great “snow pattern” for the Northeast. That said, it’s only one aspect, and it may also be incorrect.

    Floor two DONE with window project. Floor one tomorrow. 🙂

    Also, guidance is continuing the more progressive theme for the late-week system, though it does slow down and redevelop, more offshore and less impact here other than some back-side wind & chill. Looks like a dry 3-day weekend ahead if things hold as is.

  15. So, what could help to change the pattern ?

    1) A stratospheric warming event near the arctic to perhaps alter the polar vortex.

    2) A further drastic change from La Niña to El Niño conditions

    3) A change in 1 or more of the teleconnections

    4) perhaps a very intense cyclone headed for the Aleutians and Alaska to help develop a western ridge/eastern trof setup.

    This is perhaps why it’s not sound to “write-off” a season because well, if the hemispheric pattern changes, then an area can see a drastic change in its weather.

  16. BIL east of San Francisco lost power around 2:30 am. No indication of when it will be restored. He said torrential rain and major thunder and lightning.

    3. Oh, ho hum….only another 40-52” of accumulation so far there with two more feet on the way. And we can’t buy an inch here!

      162” on the ground there now and 310” total on the season. Snow immersion suffocation will be a big risk for any skiers venturing off the main trails when the ski resort reopens (which probably won’t be until Thursday at this point)

  18. Thank TK.

    This is promising for the NNE ski resorts with respect to this weekend’s storm:

    Matt Noyes NBC10 Boston & NECN
    @MattNBCBoston
    7h

    After snowing late Thursday and Thursday night, Northern New England does turn to rain with the rest of us Friday. That said, while rain showers continue for Central and Southern New England Saturday, mountains go back to snowflakes. Overall, we do add, not lose, snow north.

    https://twitter.com/MattNBCBoston/status/1612829212355825664?s=20&t=fUTYUjsaFyzM5xKI1nDNJQ

  21. 18z op GFS. Progressive late Thursday / Friday system, slows down / redevelops harmlessly at sea. Dry, storm-free MLK Jr weekend.

  22. He is reacting to the 11-15 day GFS ensemble forecast in this post:

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    7h

    First I recommend you do like I do, make peace that it’ll not #snow this #winter but after achieving such Zen, not a bad look from today’s models: western ridge along West Coast, blocking in Northeast Canada & Western N Atlantic, lowest relative heights of E hemisphere in East US

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1612824375853518848?s=20&t=Kn86wK7fQ1V-7MndidshKQ

    1. Poor Judah. This is killing the poor guy. 😉
      Can’t we get just one sizable storm for him before March? 😉

  23. Cue the Tweets about the 18z GFS forecast for New England for January 19 in 3, 2, 1 ……………. 😉

  24. Thanks, TK.

    Back in Boston. It is mild. We’ve got a northwest wind today and yet it just isn’t cold at all. Sad. This could easily be a day in March. It does not have a January feel or look to it at all.

    With the exception of a few cold days in December, this has thus far been a non-winter. Sure, it’s only the 10th of January. A lot can still happen. But all short-term forecasts suggest at least another week or two of blah. And the (very) long-range is iffy at best in terms of cold and snow. Could this be the winter without snow? Yes.

    The Pacific air flow is so dominant and strong that it appears to be fueling the parade of lows impacting Western Europe. The Dutch mets don’t see any end in sight to this weather. They’re discounting any and all hints that things will change by late January. At best, they see the Siberian cold delivering a glancing very soft jab to Western Europe, but not enough to produce sustained cold or snow, even in the Swiss and French Alps (unless you’re above 2,500 meters, where it should snow this weekend).

  25. Update from Northern California: Feeling thankful still for being in a relative rain shadow. Power out at my daughter’s school today and lots of downed trees and traffic signal outages made my 2 mile commute take 25 minutes. But otherwise we still have power and lots of standing puddles but no major flooding. As I said at the start of this, the areas hit hardest are hills and coast. Impressive stuff being reported in those locations- high seas causing flooding and road damage, and fallen trees and mudslides lots of places in the foothills. CNN had a nice gallery of photos- https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/10/weather/gallery/california-weather-flooding/index.html

    Watsonville, aptos, Pacifica, and San Francisco are generally coastal, Highway 17, Scotts Valley and Felton are in the hills to the west of me (I drive 17 often, but not as often as my colleagues who commute on that road daily). Some of the other photos are southern ca.

    The funny thing is, if you are used to east coast storms, these storms really don’t seem that dramatic. The difference is they’re happening on drought and fire-scarred land.

    1. Glad you made out ok with the storm Julie!

      While these storms have certainly garnered widespread attention, there is undeniably an East Coast bias in mainstream media weather coverage. It’s a big problem that’s starting to get more notice and attention from the social science community within meteorology.

      IMO, it’s not that this storm hasn’t been dramatic – some areas northwest of LA got 12-15″ of rain yesterday. That is *insane*, by any standards, let alone with the topography and burn scar issues this area has. There were thousands of water rescues made across the state yesterday, at least a handful of fatalities, and the event will likely go down as a multi-billion dollar disaster. The resource mobilization to deal with it and mitigate impacts has been massive. But for whatever reason, it doesn’t quite captivate mainstream coverage the way similar events out East do, or even the way fires do in the warmer months, since they tend to be very highly covered.

      Looking forward to the Pacific tap finally shutting off in about a week!

      1. That is just plain sad. I cannot begin to imagine something of the magnitude that CA is experiencing not being first and foremost in the minds of all.

      2. Oh definitely- we didn’t have quite as high numbers up here; I think 10” was the highest. But that’s on top of 8” in one storm last week and this is maybe the 4th or 5th wave (I’ve lost count, honestly). Where I am we got under 4”, and it just feels like steady light rain- occasional stronger wind gusts, occasional heavier rain, but not the downpours you might think… but just relentless in terms of how long it’s lasting. And lots of impacts. (It’s not just weather that has an east coast bias, btw- I hear that complaint about sports coverage, “live” TV events and other media stuff….)

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