A One-Two Tap

74 Comments

4:24PM

“Punch” seemed a bit too strong a word for the two systems that will impact southern New England this weekend. Both of them moving along a fast jet stream from west northwest to east southeast, the first will be a low pressure system passing just south of the region Saturday morning, bringing a swath of snow and rain to the region from the early morning to the midday hours of Saturday before tapering off. It will be cold enough above us to support snow with the heaviest precipitation, and this is slated to pass across southern Worcester County, northern Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where the “greatest” accumulations will occur in the highest elevations. Even in these areas we are not talking about more than 3 inches maximum (there is an outside chance of a 4 inch amount). Most locations will see less than 2 inches, and many less than 1 inch with slushy coatings being most common. In all areas that see snow, the accumulations will really take place only on unpaved surfaces, with the areas seeing the most only getting some slushy build up on side roads, sidewalks, and walkways. With temperatures above freezing, I’m not expecting icy grounds to become a problem, as anything that falls will have melted off surfaces by the end of the day Saturday. The second disturbance will appear in the form of a low pressure area tracking right over southern New England Sunday night and offshore by early Monday. With milder air in place, the bulk of this system will be in the form of rain, and on the light side, though it is  not out of the question that as colder air starts to work in as the system departs, any lingering precipitation may switch to snow, especially west and north of  Boston. If this occurs it will be during the early morning hours of Monday and the mild grounds should prevent any problems for the Monday morning commute, but follow updates just in case something changes with this.

Once we are beyond this, medium range guidance is coming into agreement in suggesting that much of next week will be on the quiet side, with one unsettled weather system late Tuesday and Wednesday interrupting what will be a mostly dry week. A chilly start to the week is expected, with a reinforcing cool shot at midweek. As we head toward the late week (Good Friday and Easter coming up for those who celebrate it), early indications are that we may be looking at a warm-up. But as recently as yesterday, some guidance showed a much cooler and unsettled pattern for this time period, so I speak of the drier/warmer pattern by then with some reservation.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clouding up from west to east early. Cloudy with snow developing from west northwest to east southeast, except rain/mix over southeastern MA, southern RI, and Cape Cod to start with, and little or not precipitation in far northeastern MA and southern NH. Low from the middle 20s across southern NH to middle 30s over Cape Cod. Wind NW under 10 MPH shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow, steadiest along and south of Route 2, less to the north, and some mix over southern RI and Cape Cod during the morning, then tapering off from northwest to southeast as light mix/drizzle in the afternoon. Snow accumulations from a slushy coating to 1 inch on unpaved surfaces except locally up to 2 or even 3 inches over the highest elevations west and southwest of Boston. High 40-45. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low around 30 except some middle 20s inland valleys. Wind light N.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. High 45-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain showers, may end as snow showers after midnight. No accumulation expected. Low 30-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW.

MONDAY: Decreasing clouds. High 42-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun to clouds. Low 28. High 53.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain showers. Low 35. High 49.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 50.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 55.

EASTER WEEKEND SNEAK PEAK: Dry weather, warming trend.

74 thoughts on “A One-Two Tap”

    1. You’re welcome. Have a great weekend JJ and thanks for being a valuable part of the blog!

  4. Tk- does Boston or south shore see accumulating snow. I hope not. I just want warm weather. If I am correct the last couple easters have been warm.

    1. I seem to remember cloudy and 50ish maybe showers past two but of course may have made it up. I do seem to remember snow in ski country a few days in a row before Easter last year and Easter 2011 was as late as it can be 4/24

    2. It wouldn’t matter much even if they did, it’ll be gone Sunday. Warm weather was a tease, but we may see some warming late next week.

  5. Really hoping this doesn’t ruin my move tomorrow AM. Good thing we hired movers this time around!

    1. I sure hope the move goes all right and speaking as someone who grew up in a moving company family – good idea !

      1. I’m the son of an air force colonel so growing up we moved 11 times and used movers every time. You’d think I would have learned. Always hire movers!!

        1. Charlie I do. Grew up in Belmont

          DS did you live around the world? My husbands dad worked for Goodyear international. He was their go to person when they had a plant that needed help ao they lived all over and had lots of military friends growing up

          1. Vicki – I’m the youngest of five kids. 2 were born at Ramstein AFB in Germany, one in England, one in Texas. And then I was born in South Dakota of all places!

            So while my family did travel internationally, I was not part of it. However, by the time I was 11, I had been to all 48 states. Not that I remember most of them!

  7. Like I have been saying Boston will see less than .10 of precip and no accu
    Accumulation, alot of people that I’ve talked to are sorta bahumbugging it saying we won’t see more than a few flakes 🙂

    1. Whatever we see will be gone in a blink. I just want to protect the plants I have breaking through the surface.

  10. This time of year on a day like today when there are deep blue skies and brisk chilly/cold winds always remind me of Monday April 5, 1982. As we all know a deep fluffy 13.3″ of snow fell the very next day Tuesday April 6th. 🙂

    IMHO tonight’s snow event should be the very last of the season until November at the earliest. Pete B. says temps could be back into the 70s for Easter weekend. Ever since last October, the weather overall has been very strange to say the least. Even as far back as late August, hurricane Irene was strange as well.

    My early, early call on snowfall for next winter: still below normal but much more compared to this past winter. 😉

    As for mega milliions, I rarely buy lottery tickets but I did buy “one” yesterday. Wish me luck everyone! hahaha 🙂

    1. Actually, going back to early June those devastating tornadoes in central & western MA, the severe thunderstorms elsewhere and then the damp chill shortly thereafter were “strange” as well.

      I really hope this spring and especially summer are normal for a change.

      1. Agreed Philip.

        Also we never buy tickets either but got 10. That’s a real splurge for us. Ummm. Ok. Good luck. Sort of. I think. Oh darn, well of course I wish you luck !!!!

  11. The way that I understand the forecast, the only people to see any snow accumulation will be those who are high on grass :).

  12. Personally I think the snow lovers are disappointed especially north of the pike, south of the pike I think there will be some light patchy coating that will be on ground for an hr or 2. Later 🙂

        1. It would probably be wasteful to apply salt bc temp will always be above freezing and ground is wayyyy to warm.

          1. I was sending you a detailed post but my dog ruined it. To sum it up Charlie I work for one of the best hospitals in the world. Trust me there not thinking of wasting salt. A hospital is a 24/7 institute. Patient, public and employees safety is a must at all times. We have cameras at base watching for snowbuildup. I’m not sure if you think we try to milk the sittuation, but its all about safety. You have ambulances and people all day and night.

  14. Buffalo has dropped to 32F and Niagara Falls, NY to 28F with precip falling (snow and sleet respectively).

    Interesting to watch Logan’s surface wind come around off the ocean last couple of hours. The dewpoint rose almost 15F to the low 20s and the temp fell nearly 10F.

    1. IMO Amy a few wet snowshowers mixed with rain during the morning, no accumulation, sun could come out after 4pm, have a great night 🙂

  16. i am able to say this areas from Boston to fitchburgh north will get less than 1 inch
    the other areas i am pretty sure will not see anything higher than 3 inches. the problem is that a few nams and one of the euro models are saying 3 to as much as 6 to 8 inches in some areas

  18. Mega Millions Numbers:
    2, 4, 23, 38, 46 and MB 23

    Guess I can officially stop thinking about what I am going to do with all that $$ now! 🙁

  22. The long range 0z EURO continues its idea of warming next weekend. However, next Friday looks chilly now and the warmup is delayed by one day from yesterday.

    This (the projected return of warmer weather) is starting to remind me of last autumn, when, starting in November, the 10th or so day out and beyond would show a release of cold air into the US and as we all know, it would never come to fruition. The GFS disagrees with the EURO and dominates with NW flow aloft resulting from a low to our northeast in the Maritimes. Given the pattern of the last week plus, I think I actually believe the GFS more.

    1. …..but, after next weekend, the GFS’ evolution of a big storm to our south…….that, I don’t believe so much without many, many, many more consistent supporting runs.

  23. I had a $91 gas bill for last month and for this month it was $77. I can get use to that! 🙂

    1. Indeed ! That has been so nice ! I like on one of the bills, I forget which one, they compare year to year usage and temps and the differences have been huge.

      1. On my bill it shows the average Dailey temperatures as follows:
        March 12: 41.9
        Feb 12: 34.3
        Mar 11: 36.2

        I had my entire house insulated in November so I guess this winters heating bills would not be the same as a normal winter.

        1. We have the insulating of our house on the to-do list.

          Look at the difference in those March temps. I wonder if they use in house recorded climate data or if they use data from the NWS.

        2. coastal did you have the insulation blown in? My husband keeps talking about having ours insulated.

          1. Yes, we used the gas companies program and saved $2000. The had to remove some of the siding to blow into the walls and they did they attic. Such a huge improvement in temperature and sound

            1. Thanks coastal. I know NSTAR has a program to evaluate but don’t know what kind of discounts we could get through them. WE have oil so I’ll have to check with the oil company.

  26. I knew it was going to be rain with 0 accumulation, we got rain mixed with a few lonely wet snow flakes 🙂

  29. Its now that the mets say its going to be mainly rain with no accumulation, I’ve been wrong before but I felt like this is what I thought was going to happen, have a good day, and don’t forget your umbrella this morning

        1. There wasn’t a need in the past and I lost plants that were in memory of loved ones. Most of my plants are in memory of someone. Answer your question?

  31. The ground looks bone dry at the moment, which is a bit amazing while looking at the radar, which shows some precip overhead. Dry air wins out for most.

  34. I have a baseball game at 2pm and I just got an email saying the game is on, I kinda wish it was cancelled but o well

  35. Charlie… You had better come to a gathering in person so I can ask for your autograph (sarcasm). You are now an honorary site admin (sarcasm). You set a record for posting in a single day in about 5 minutes (half truth hahaha). Do you think any of my amounts verified? Actually, the ones for southern NH and northeastern MA verified perfectly. =D

    I’m just having fun with you. Nice job. You’ve been the best forecaster all winter/early Spring. 🙂

  36. I just took a 40 minute walk. Chilly and raw, but not bad with no wind, and only some very light rain (not enough to wet the ground).

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