Wednesday January 11 2023 Forecast (7:44AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

High pressure brings fair weather to the region today with an “easy chill”, a cool day, above the average, and not much wind. Things still look much the same for our upcoming unsettled weather passing through. We cloud up and have spotty light rain and snow around on Thursday (snow most likely away from the coast, but light!), although some of the rain that falls may freeze on surfaces with temperatures just cold enough, as warm air tries to move in both surface and aloft ahead of low pressure. This low ultimately takes a track to our northwest and when we get into the warm sector is when we see our heaviest rainfall, Thursday night / early Friday morning, which may even include some thunder, but timing is fast enough that the cold front from the low sweeps through and offshore, so that most of Friday is rain-free, just windy and cool with breaking clouds. Additional low pressure evolves on the offshore front as it slows down as we get into the weekend, far enough to our east so that we see fair weather, but close enough so we feel a chilly northerly breeze from it, in combination with high pressure to our west at that time.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain, freezing rain, and snow especially afternoon. Highs 36-43. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain including embedded heavier showers with the chance of thunder. Areas of fog developing. Temperatures rising through the 40s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, strongest coast where gusts above 30 MPH are possible.

FRIDAY: A cloudy start with showers ending, then lots of clouds but breaks of sun. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts in the evening, shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

High pressure nudges east for a dry, more tranquil, chilly MLK Jr. Day. Frontal system from the west brings unsettled weather but maybe more clouds than precipitation for January 17 as it will be running into a non-supporting roadblock in the atmosphere. Chilly, dry weather follows this but as the flow in the atmosphere quickens it may be unsettled again by the end of the period with a rain/mix/snow threat.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

This looks like a drier period that trends somewhat cooler to colder as we lose the Pacific flow and gradually re-introduce Canadian air to our region. Not sure yet if one more Pacific system will try to move through during transition, otherwise watch for a weaker low out of Canada with a minor precipitation threat around mid period.

58 thoughts on “Wednesday January 11 2023 Forecast (7:44AM)”

  1. The recent stretch of wet weather in California gave San Francisco its 3rd rainiest 15-day period in observed history.

    The top four rainiest 15-day periods for San Francisco…
    4) 11.60″ .. January 28 – February 11 1998
    3) 12.37″ .. December 26 2022 – January 9 2023
    2) 13.54″ .. December 15-29 1866
    1) 19.77″ .. January 5-19 1862

        1. That all depends on the dry season, and how dry it is, how quickly it moves in, etc. If anything, you’ve added more fuel to the potential fires now, as everything will bloom in the Spring.

  4. Thanks TK.

    I have noticed based on futurecast radars that these cutters bring snows to Buffalo on their backsides.

    1. Great question. No reason given yet that I could find. Atlanta and Newark are starting to resume flights.

    1. On the 6Z GFS, I count 6 more SNOW events for the Sierra’s. a few of which are relatively minor, but a few are Major. At least according to the GFS.

  9. Thank you, TK. I like the term easy chill

    On my phone the line partway down your discussion broke after “…although some of the rain that falls …”. And my mind went with

    …although some of the rain that falls mainly on the plain. And now I can’t get it out of my head.

  11. Thanks TK.

    While it’s been a perilous prediction to make so far this winter, dare I say, I kind of like the look of the pattern for winter weather prospects in SNE from about 1/22 onward, potentially for 2-4 weeks at least. A wholesale pattern change is getting underway in the Pacific. In the same way that we should’ve expected “fool’s gold” cold and snow outcomes on the models to trend warmer over the past several weeks, I expect we’re now seeing errors in the opposite direction, and that we’ll see colder/snowier corrections days 10-15 and beyond.

    It’s certainly not a slam dunk. TK mentioned the unfavorable MJO yesterday, and has also indicated the risks of a drier pattern, which I could see happening if the subtropical jet fails to show more activity (which would be a concern given the MJO state and loss of that tropical forcing). Not to mention the Southeast ridge can become a factor in this type of pattern. But all things considered, I think a trend to colder starting in about 10 days is highly likely as polar air replaces Pacific air (as TK’s forecast indicates), and odds are at least one or two good snow opportunities will follow…

    1. Thanks WxW for keeping us updated. Does this also mean opportunities for “feet” of snow for Buffalo again?

      As for California, with so much precipitation of all types, will any summer wildfires be kept to a minimum for a change?

      2. For Buffalo, it’s likely there will be more opportunities for significant lake effect, yes, though no telling if it would be even close to matching the extreme events earlier this season.

        And for California fires: too early to say. A rainy wet season can actually lead to a worse fire season by creating a high load of fuels (grass, shrubs) that inevitably will dry out in the spring and summer. Part of reason that last fire season wasn’t too bad was a lack of available fuel to burn because of the drought. There’s a lot of complexities that go into determining fire season severity though. March-May is a critical time in terms of what happens during the peak growing season and early part of the “drying season”.

  13. If we had those huge amounts of precipitation for a winter, there would be no brush fire or drought issues for months well into the following summer, maybe fall as well. We would need only minimal amounts of rainfall just to keep things in check.

    1. Believe it or not, it wouldn’t really prevent anything for months. Only for weeks (maybe). Having more rain, if anything, can actually make the following fire season worse (as noted above) because you suddenly have more vegetation for fire to consume once you get into the dry / fire season.

      When you get this much rain in a short time, where does most of it end up? In the drainage system and right back to rivers and eventually the ocean. It doesn’t just sit around waiting to prevent fires later.

      The biggest problem with wildfire season in California is that we’ve put too many things in the way of the fires that can burn. And I get it – expensive property and multi million dollar homes on hills with gorgeous scenery is nice if you’re into that kind of thing, that is until a wall of flames is climbing the hill into those neighborhoods. High risk, high reward. And I’m not being insensitive here, I’m just being realistic. The fact is this: If you want to build on hills that burn periodically, or coasts that get wiped out by hurricanes, or flood plains that ….. flood, there is a risk and a price to pay, eventually. It’s just the way it is. Again, not insensitivity on my part, just stating facts, because they shouldn’t be ignored.

      Take the folks in India / Bangladesh. Not that they have much choice in the matter, but the richest soil in the world yields incredible amounts of good food, yet bring a tropical cyclone up the Bay of Bengal and the entire thing is flooded and thousands of lives are at risk, and certainly property damage is huge because of the nature of construction and the extensiveness of the flooding. It’s a fact of living on certain parts of the planet, and then it comes down to willingness to take that risk.

  14. Quick updates since I had 15 min to kill while I wait for the tylenol to erase the tension headache I have .. haha..

    Window project goes on and continues right on schedule. The 1st floor is expected to take 2 days, and they are more than half way through that floor after the first of the 2 days. Bodes well for wrapping that floor up tomorrow and then moving onto the doors to finish up the project on Friday. After that will come an inspection and then we can finish putting everything back in place and pulling those silly stickers off the windows. 😉

    Weather…
    NAM, GEM, GFS, ECMWF are all progressive with the system, as was the expectation, pulling most of the rainfall through here Thursday PM to Friday AM. The 3 medium range models have a 3-day stretch of dry weather just in time for the long weekend with neither a flake of snow nor a drop of rain to be had. 🙂 Still expect it to be windy/chilly to start, tranquil to end.

    Alrighty, off I go to take care of other things!

  15. Thanks, TK.

    Also, thanks to SAK, WxWatcher, JMA, and others for chiming in regularly.

    Today is a 9 in my book. I’d love to have many more days like this. I’m not optimistic about winter’s prospects. Of course it’s only a hunch, and hunches are notorious for being wrong.

    Wonderful cloud formation and reflection in the water at Wellfleet: https://twitter.com/dariusaniunas/status/1613260511440666624

    For those interested in some photos of Amsterdam from my recent trip: https://hubwildlife.wordpress.com/

    2. Great photos! Thank you for taking the time to discuss as well. I spent some time in Amsterdam a few years ago when I was deployed to Geilenkirchen Air Base in Germany.

    2. Always loved JB. Reminds me of my brother who introduced me to his music long ago. I still listen to it periodically. He did an album with Tony Hyman and Terry Bozzio called “Guitar Shop” which is a favorite of mine. It’s a short 39 minute album with 9 songs on it but just great work. There’s even a song about climate change / taking care of the earth on the album in which drummer Terry Bozzio does spoken word centered around the phrase “nothing is being done!” .. a serious message with an amusing delivery. 🙂

  19. Today’s Judah tweets…increasingly optimistic.

    First link is depicting 11-15 day ensemble forecasts from the GEFS and GEPS showing positive snow depth change in much of the northeast. Second tweet depicts a modeled polar vortex stretch towards the last week of the month.

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    9h

    “Daddy is it true that when you were a kid, sometimes the rain would be white, it would pile up on the ground, you could sled on it, you could make soft balls & throw it at each other & make people out of it? I wish I could experience it too!” Timmy sometimes dreams do come true.

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1613185605961236480?s=20&t=cV4QIUdk_7hTXz5bxBrwKA

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    4h

    It’s been “rinse, lather, repeat” or #polarvortex (PV) “stretch, snap-back, repeat” the past two winters. No surprise another PV stretch with #cold & #snow in East US is predicted. But could the cycle finally be broken with something bigger? Blog is public https://aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1613266536709652482?s=20&t=cV4QIUdk_7hTXz5bxBrwKA

  21. Eric Fisher is more skeptical on a big pattern change:

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    8h

    Even the possible somewhat-significant vortex disruption for late month/early Feb has backed off considerably (@burgwx’s great graphics)

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1613208585210851329?s=20&t=b_PKEXbWlJVTNkbdO698MA

    Additional Eric tweets:

    It’ll be tough to hold a +PNA in Feb of a Nina with no MJO assistance. Not impossible…but wouldn’t favor it.

    Well I think there may at least be a *possibility* of some action late month into early Feb. But…no guarantees the way things are going and would still favor interior NE

    And in response to what he thinks about the GEFS having a strong polar vortex bias:

    Yep, in the long run but Euro also has backed off and there’s no signal at all for even an “avg” vortex, let alone a weak one or SSW

  22. Seems like this week’s storm is being scaled back almost every day. How much rain are you expecting around metro west? Thanks.

    1. It’s being scaled back by anybody who was buying into the unrealistic model solutions days ago when it was showing this big spinning whirlpool sitting right over us. There was a big problem with the modeling of this system that was recognizable if one was paying attention.

      If you recall several days ago I mentioned that the guidance would trend toward more of a glorified frontal passage … Basically warm front / cold front combination from a low that was tracking northwest of us. That is what we will have.

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