Thursday January 12 2023 Forecast (7:28AM)

96 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)

A little surprise ocean-effect snow from Boston into the northwestern suburbs and the North Shore with low level moisture moving in from the southeast overnight with air cold enough to support flakes. We’ve had a minor accumulation / coating, just enough to slick up some roads and walks that were not treated, so be cautious if you have to travel early today before the temperature goes above freezing and it all vanishes. During the day today, with the approach of a warm front, we will still be under an overcast with scattered light precipitation, back to rain for the coastal plain and I-95 belt with a bit of freezing rain in pockets off to the northwest and snow well to the northwest, as mentioned on yesterday’s discussion. Still expecting the system passing to our northwest to give us most of its rain in the warm sector later tonight into Friday morning before the cold front pulls through and we start a dry-out process during the afternoon on Friday. A developing storm on the offshore front will tease far eastern New England with some clouds at times this weekend, and the rain/snow shield may make a run for outer Cape Cod briefly, but I expect it to stay offshore and keep the region dry between the storm and high pressure to the west, the latter of which will move in for MLK Jr Day on Monday with fair and more tranquil weather after a gusty breeze during Saturday and Sunday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain that may freeze on some surfaces well northwest of Boston and be in the form of snow for a while from southwestern NH into central MA before all transitioning to rain later. Highs 36-43. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain including embedded heavier showers with the chance of thunder. Areas of fog developing. Temperatures rising through the 40s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, strongest coast where gusts above 30 MPH are possible.

FRIDAY: Cloudy morning with numerous showers and a slight chance of thunder, especially southeastern NH through eastern MA and RI. Breaking clouds with partial sun possible midday on. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts in the evening, shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas, diminishing later in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)

Low pressure may still linger offshore early in the period and make a loop back, essentially dismantling an approaching front from the west on January 17, so we may end with lots of clouds but not much, if any, precipitation from that system, followed by high pressure with dry weather for a couple days. Another storm system from the west may move in later in the period with a rain/mix/snow threat, but this is low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)

A little less Pacific flow and a little more Canadian flow is expected, with a more seasonable temperature pattern. We’ll have to watch for one or two potential precipitation threats but they may be rather minor for a lack of moisture available, depending on the set-up.

96 thoughts on “Thursday January 12 2023 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  4. Thanks TK. 32F and snowing lightly here. Driveway and deck are coated white.

    The overnight model runs want to develop that follow up low pressure system for the weekend and send a ribbon of heavy snow into the Cape. Though the 6z GFS is not as enthused. Will have to be watched.

  5. Thanks, TK.

    Same here in Middleborough, Mark. Campus here at the high school has a light coating.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    A nice coating of snow here this morning with a good 1/4 inch coating everything, including the streets. Very pretty and looking very much like WINTER, even if briefly. 🙂

    Interesting to see the OE snow moving SE to NW. Usually, it is NE to SE or E to W.

  8. Snow has really picked up in intensity now here in Coventry….moderate to heavy and accumulating rapidly. This is associated with the main area of precip arriving from the west, not ocean effect.

    1. Clearly a few heavier bands down your way.

      They are approaching Boston.

      Still 32 here. Hmmm I wonder??????

  10. If we get about 125 more of these coating to 1/2 inch “snowfalls”, I might come near my snowfall contest predictions.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    Watched Jeremy Reiner last night. Judging from the projected areas of ocean-effect snow and the way these were moving from southeast to northwest, it struck me that he downplayed it a bit too much. Sure, it’s not impactful in terms of travel, but it was clear from the future cast radar that the snow would get up into the Boston area.

  15. We now have some very fine flakes but radar seems to be sending a heavier slug this way. Roads and other pavement areas are just wet but some colder surfaces have a very light coating

  16. Everything was white and received a little over a half inch of snow in Coventry before I left. Switched to rain on my way into the office In Manchester CT. 34 and pretty much nothing on the ground here. It was good while it lasted!

  18. Went skiing Tuesday night at Wachusett and conditions were not bad for such a lack of natural snow. Then this morning woke up to some snow on the surfaces and on my way to the airport

      2. Even though the precip shield is largely a miss, it looks like the wind direction, between the offshore low and the retreating high should create an ocean effect snow opportunity on the south shore and Cape.

        But, story of the winter with the Pacific Airmass, I don’t think the airmass is cold enough to cause enough temp differential to develop it.

  22. Thank you to everyone for your links. And prayers for folks in Mississippi

    Ssk I hope you are back to 100%.

    2. Wow, double digit snows for SE MA this weekend on that run….wouldn’t that be something? Granted it is one model and not sure the ratios would be as high as 10:1 but something to keep an eye on if you live SE of Boston.

  24. I am not expecting that coastal low to deliver snow to my area. Hopefully snow lovers in eastern SNE will get some snow from that coastal low.

  25. Very encouraged by the look of the 12z GFS, CMC and Euro at hour 240 and beyond…. I see colder air, more troughiness in the east, and some coastal storm potential. We’ll see if we can get some consistency in the models now over the next several days.

  26. Adding the ECMWF to the mix. Still no changes to the above forecast. Yes I am keeping an eye on that, but I think the wind-up is too far offshore still.

    Update on the window project.
    1st floor will be done within the hour.

    All that is left for tomorrow is the door on the 2nd floor and some new wood around one kitchen window also 2nd floor. A wrap up and inspection scheduling follows and we’re nearly done. 🙂

      1. My mother already notices the downstairs being warmer as of last night .. of course today it’s not because the door is open most of the day (haha) but she’s opted to stay in one of the finished rooms with the door closed and the TV on instead of going to my brother’s house like he offered – dozens of times.. Am I surprised? Nope. 😛

    1. 24 TRILLION gallons.

      That’s the amount of water that has fallen in California over the last 16 days.

      At a capacity of 600 billion gallons, that’s the equivalent of 400 Lake Winnipesaukees.

  31. Today’s CPC temperature outlook is for above normal through 12/26.

    Almost time to write off January.

    1. You can get snow with above normal temperatures in the winter………..
      You’re also talking about a temperature forecast, not a precipitation outlook, which by the way, calls for above normal. 🙂

    2. It looks colder as well after 1/22 along with an active pattern. I am not even close to writing off January yet.

      1. There are things that work in favor of that pattern, and things that work against it, but the scales are definitely less tipped toward the “not in favor” and much more kind of split to even tipped toward “in favor” of better winter weather opportunities. Definitely don’t write off January, not 12 days in. Yet there are people who wrote winter off back on December 21. 😉 Same ones who wrote it off in mid January 2015. 😉

    1. I’ve seen this before. In a case like that most of the “snow” ends up aloft. However, a set-up like this can result in ocean effect snow bands.

    1. That would depend on the 12 to 15 other indices in combination with a weak El Nino. So we won’t know that answer for quite while, assuming that we’re even in a weak El Nino come next winter, and then pending the status of all the other indices. 🙂 That amount of uncertainty is definitely the main reason why I don’t make my winter forecasts a year, 6 months, or even 3 months before winter starts. And also why almanac forecasts are completely useless. People put so much stock into forecasts created in June and July for August publications. That’s a mistake. If they are correct, it’s by accident (or luck), not good meteorology, because you can’t accurately long range forecast THAT far in advance. One example, CPC had above normal temperatures months in advance for areas that ended up below to well below normal for those months. It’s just not reliable.

      1. If you look back at all the winters we have had on record, I think we have generally faired better with weaker La Nina or El Nino’s as opposed to very strong ones. Do not recall where I had seen that and perhaps TK could correct me if I am wrong.

        One thing for sure, after 3 bad La Nina years, I am ready to take my chances with El Nino next year and hope some other key indices fall into place.

        1. Shame on me. I did not mean to imply this was a bad winter…..YET. Still plenty of time left to turn it around 🙂

  34. Yet another DARK day today. Is it my imagination or have we had a lot of them so far this winter? Maybe I’m just noticing them more.

    1. Philip, my wife and I were talking about this.
      Not sure I can ever remember so many dark dreay days
      than we have had so far this season.

    2. It’s a case of remembering what’s most recent. January’s first 12 days have been cloudier than average. December was sunnier than average. So the meteorological winter as a whole, so far, has not been “darker” than normal, just recent days have featured very little sun.

  35. Mark…
    There is a lot of variability across the different strengths of El Niño and La Niña, but you can see a little bit of a correlation.

    El Niño.
    Just about all of the strong two very strong ones have had winters that were not that notable in terms of snowfall here. Moderate El Niño’s did not stand out as big snow producing winters either, with the exception of 1968-1969. If you look through the week El Niño occurrences, You will find the winters of 1976-1977, 1977-1978, and 2014-2015 among them. But you will also find a handful of winters that were poor snow producers. This supports what I said in reply to Philip earlier about taking into account all the other indices.

    La Niña.
    There are not a whole lot of standout winters for weak, moderate, or strong La Niña episodes. 1995-1996 was during a moderate one and 2010-2011 was during a strong one.

    The snowy winters of 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 both occurred with neutral conditions. The notable 1996-1997 winter was also a neutral ENSO winter.

    One can argue based on this that neutral conditions tend to be more favorable. I think you could make a case for there just being less of a possibility of a negative influence from both sides of ENSO.

    It’s also interesting to note that this is the third La Niña winter in a row but so far in its early stages this one is quite different from last. Granted, we still have more than half of January to go but we are certainly off to a mild and rather snowless start. Last January, Boston received about 3 ft of snow which is above normal, and the temperature for the month averaged 2.5° F below normal. We have a long way to go to rival last January’s stats.

    1. Thank you TK. Just goes to show you that people put way too much stock in ENSO when making winter forecasts. There are just too many other variables that play into it, and many of them cannot be seen with any certainty until you are inside 2 or 3 weeks out. I’ll bet there is way more correlation to cold/snow in the northeast during -NAO, +PNA, and MJO phase 8,1,2 patterns.

      1. Those are definitely weighted heavier, and more applicable to patterns that occur during portions of winter, where the ENSO phase has more of a hand in determining longer term trends.

        It would be like assuming that because you have a La Nina and Southeast ridge that you can’t get a snowstorm up here. A strong southeast ridge may lessen the overall chance of an East Coast storm of the classic variety but at the same time the same feature, in certain patterns, can set up a significant snow (or ice) storm for the Northeast. We’ve had some impressive snowfalls with a warm ridge in the Southeast, cold high to the north, and lots of moisture flowing over us between the 2 – just one example.

  37. To give you an idea of models being unreliable for details beyond a few days…

    One week ago today, the 18z GFS forecast a nice sunny and chilly day for today with a nose of high pressure into New England from eastern Canada. After that it brought in a storm system from the southwest for later Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, tracking as an intensifying low right over eastern MA.

    Not a good forecast, but I wouldn’t have expected it to be anyway. This is why I don’t pay attention to such details so far in advance. The only thing we could really gather from those runs that day is that there “might” be low pressure to track close by or in our region sometime late this week or over the weekend. 🙂

    Imagine trying to find a way to predict the little surprise snowfall of last night with a model like that, 7 days in advance. Not happening. 🙂 We couldn’t even do it with the short range guidance 12 hours in advance this time! 😉

    1. 2011-2012 may turn out to be a bonanza year for snow compared to what Boston gets this winter. Yes, it’s waaaay too early to write off winter. But, I am just not seeing winter show up in any long-range forecasts anywhere. I remember January 2012 well. We definitely had some winter that month. A snowstorm – however minor – on MLK weekend. And, some sustained cold with a couple of nights of 9F and 10F in Boston. The Charles river froze over in Boston. This year, effectively no snow. no sustained cold, no freeze over whatsoever (not even a thin layer of ice, except on the edges of the Esplanade Lagoon).

      All I can say is that after this disappointing winter I will freak out if we get lots of days above 85F this summer.

      1. That’s assuming the winter ends up fully disappointing. It may not.

        2011-2012 had it’s colder periods, but most of those were in January, and none of them were sustained beyond 4 days. Boston hit or exceeded 60 on 3 days during meteorological winter 2011-2012. One of the reasons the snowfall was so low because we got progressively drier and drier as the winter went on.

        This winter so far has had earlier cold, but only really once (near Christmas). But it being only mid January we have plenty of time for other cold snaps before this month is over. Don’t just make the assumption that all the long range forecasts you see are locks to verify. There are plenty of things that can turn that around in short order, with not a lot of warning.

        To compare, the meteorological winter of 2012 ran about 5 degrees above normal at Boston. So far, January 2023 is running about a +7, but it’s not as unusual to see a big departure through the halfway point of a month.

        Tomorrow’s mild air, like most of our mild days, will be below daily records by several degrees. This is a persistently mild pattern due to strong Pacific flow, it’s NOT a blow torch pattern.

        1. We rented in Humarock for the month of January 2012. With rare exception we spent a good amount of time on the deck. There was one snow threat but it didn’t leave more than a solid costing.

  40. The Alps did get some snow yesterday and there’s more expected this weekend, as Western Europe gets a glancing jab of Siberian cold air clashing with areas of low pressure traversing the continent. Nevertheless, it’s not a sustained cold stretch. The Netherlands will have a few days in the mid to upper 30s Monday and Tuesday with some wet snow possible. But, the mets there say the colder period is probably short-lived and only possible due to a temporary shift in wind direction from southwest to northwest. Once the southwest becomes dominant again, the milder air will prevail.

  41. Possibly ( key word POSSIBLY) snow event late Sunday night that would need to be removed for southern NE. Snow lovers have a watcher !

          1. Oh lol . Yeah I think so . That vaccine kicked my ass & I get to look forward to another one in April , I’ll be counting the days . I guess my body does not like any type of vaccine.

            1. I waited the full 6 months between my two.

              I have fifth Covid vax tomorrow. So far the other four had me down and out with a high fever for me for a few days. We will see. Thankfully I have football games to watch

              1. Good luck & I appreciate the concern you have shown me while I was not feeling well , thanks Vicki & I sincerely hope this shot will have a better outcome tomorrow for you .

  45. Sad news about Lisa Presley. The tragedies she endured throughout her life. Just painful to read about.

    From my vantage point as an amateur observer of weather, I see subtle signs of possible change on the horizon, meaning 10-14 days from now. Will they materialize is the question. Before a possible return to normalcy, if you will, we’re experiencing yet another very balmy day (we’ve had many of these in the past few weeks), and it looks like a stretch of more mild weather will return next week after a brief pause this weekend.

Comments are closed.