Friday January 13 2023 Forecast (7:35AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)

Low pressure tracks into eastern Canada today and its cold front moves across the region. It will be a mild day with rain showers around, but the heaviest band of rain occurs early in southeastern areas. Drier air works in later today and tonight. Complete clearing will be hard to come by though as the front is not that far offshore Saturday, and while it’s precipitation-free, we can expect a lot of clouds to hang around to start the long weekend. As we move through the weekend, we’ll watch the development and evolution of a new storm to the south and southeast of New England, in a slow-moving upper air pattern. The storm will be close enough to impact the region with a northeast to north wind, and may toss some rain and snow showers back into coastal areas, especially during a portion of Sunday, but the precipitation from this will largely remain offshore. Bands of precipitation that radiate outward from the low will run into dry air and dissipate in the process of doing so, but this may add to the cloudiness as there are a lot of mid and high level clouds associated with this system that can expand over the region. We will have to watch for a band or two of ocean effect mix/snow showers as well especially for the South Shore and Cape Cod. This system should be heading back out by Monday with fair weather, but the previously talked about tranquility may be a bit delayed since we may still be under the influence of the low’s wind circulation and the high from the west will be in the process of getting squeezed between that storm and an approaching low pressure area from the Midwest. The latter of the two will start to impact our region on Tuesday, but it will also be feeling the influence of the much larger ocean storm and will likely begin a process of weakening, eventually to be absorbed by that circulation offshore. So its impact on us may be more in the form of cloudiness than precipitation.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with widespread rain showers southeastern MA into mid morning, otherwise scattered rain showers through the morning. Mostly cloudy this afternoon with an additional rain shower possible. Highs ranging from 45-52 in far north central MA and southwestern NH to 53-60 elsewhere. Wind S 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH southeastern MA, higher gusts in all areas, shifting to W during the day, with the exception of an area of lighter and variable wind this morning where it is cooler well northwest of Boston.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds, breaks of sun. Highs 37-43. Wind NW-N 10-20 MPH, gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain/snow showers possible in coastal locations. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional snow/mix showers possible near the coast. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially near the coast.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light rain/mix/snow possible. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)

Next low pressure threat around mid period, trends a little weaker on guidance at this time possibly in response to lingering offshore low pressure and lack of support, but will watch it for a snow/mix/rain threat. Dry before it and after it. Temperatures near to above normal – no major cold.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)

Less Pacific flow and a little more Canadian flow is expected, with a more seasonable temperature pattern, but still lacking strong cold shots. We’ll have to watch for one or two potential precipitation threats but they may be rather minor for a lack of moisture available, depending on the set-up.

89 thoughts on “Friday January 13 2023 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  5. Thanks TK !

    I am sorry this is a tough winter for those who want a lot of snow.

    As long as it is a manageable, ie: avoiding cancellations and slippery conditions, I would like to see some snow.

    I also really like the mild weather. Its nice to not need a million layers, have to defrost the windshields and not have frozen extremities. This morning’s air feels great, invigorating, at least for me.

  11. 12Z NAM looks mighty interesting.

    500 and 200 mb seem to want to bring it up here.
    We shall see what the run really does.

        1. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=700wh&rh=2023011312&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

          I think we should focus on the 700 mb and 850 mb wind and wind direction on the coming model runs.

          I think this is why the NAM has briefly heavy snow at hr 57. Its a relative wind max at 700mb directly off the ocean. I don’t think its the low’s precip core, but rather an advection of moisture happening in the circulation btwn the off shore low and the high to the north northeast.

            1. Its good overrunning (I think) at 700mb.

              Strong NE winds in the max wind part of the jet, E to SE winds just to the east of the max wind core.

    1. Thanks and I think so.

      We’ll have to think about if we believe that setup at 700/850mb is where the models think it will be. 🙂

      I do believe thats the mechanism in play here, as opposed to be near the core of low’s compact precip shield.

      The question is, which model or models will locate this separate precip generating setup correctly.

    1. Thanks for posting this.

      I think its got a similar idea to the reg NAM, but its just a degree to a few degrees milder in the boundary layer, affecting its snowfall projection.

  15. If Boston can squeeze out a few inches on Sunday and night, they “could” put a good dent in its deficit vs. Worcester. Unfortunately with ocean effect snows, the South Shore/SE Mass./Cape Ann usually gets the better fetch off the ocean than Boston. We will see.

    Worcester 7.9” Boston 1.4”

    I don’t realistically expect Boston to beat Worcester in seasonal snowfall consecutive winters but I would at least like to see a competitive “snowing” between the two. If Boston can get some cheap inches via ocean effect then why not? 😉

  16. ANTARTICA … Here I come!

    Leaving for Buenos Aires today and then a couple of days later I’ll be in Ushuaia where I am hopping onboard an expedition ship. Then it’s through the Drake Passage (Gulp!) to the South Shetlands and on to the Antarctic Peninsula and finally into the Antarctic Circle where they allow only one ship at a time.

    Drake Passage weather: Temps in low 40’s; clouds in and out. Wind speeds probably 25-35 MPH; gusts are 35-45 MPH but can reach 50+. Wave heights 15-20 feet. Wave heights and winds usually determine if it’s going to be the “Drake Lake” or the “Drake Shake.”

    I’ll report wx conditions as I go and pics if I get them. Been planning this one since late 2017.

    1. Sounds exciting Longshot! Have a good/safe trip! Hope you see lots of penguin colonies. 🙂

      I’m surprised though that temps will be that high in the low 40s on the “plus” side of zero even if it is summer down there,

      1. I will again emphasize SAFE travels. I looked up “Drake Passage” and the rough seas are quite common. Enjoy and stay safe Longshot! 🙂

    1. We shall see.

      Right now, concentrating on opportunity #1, or Non-Opportunity. Time will tell which it is. 🙂

        1. Again the key word was possible ( not determined yet ) some of it she said could also reach Boston

  27. Well, I think all the 12z runs at least brushes the coast, especially Boston points SE with some rain to snow …. or ….. snow, at least in the air at some point late Saturday into Sunday. A few models take that a bit further inland.

    I like those contours with small, moderate and highest chances that I think Eric F uses a lot. I might have a moderate contour for up to 3 or 4 inches somewhere in SE Mass down to the Cape Cod bridges and a small chance contour that goes a little further west of that for up to 2″.

  28. Incidentally, GFS and Euro op runs projecting an ice storm for parts of New Brunswick into the maritimes this weekend.

      1. At least we are starting see some threats appearing on the models. More than we can say for the past couple weeks.

        1. There were threats appearing before, but mostly when somebody would find the 1 or 2 ensemble members that should show something, then they’d copy that and splatter it all over twitter. 😉

  31. Quick check-in!

    * Longshot, safe travels! Looking forward to hearing about it!

    * 12z info review leads me to leave everything alone on the forecast. NBD with weekend scrape – mainly dry weekend ahead.

    * Window project: DONE! Lots of put-back-together and reorganize work ahead, but this process is more fun with the project now behind us. 🙂

    2. The output is picking up on the ocean effect possibility I mentioned in my discussion today.

  34. A lot of set-up for disappointment if looking at straight model maps. A lot of times in this situation the guidance will show snow over a region and spit out measurable at the surface, but the reality is most of the synoptic snow will actually turn out as virga from mid level clouds.

    If anyone in MA stands to see some accumulation, the higher chance of that is with ocean-effect snow bands that may set up for several hours sometime during the weekend.

  35. The offshore thing doesn’t worry me 1/10 as much as this little package of energy shooting up the coast right behind the cold front in about 12 hours (around to shortly after dawn Saturday).

    If not paying attention (which I am), it couple be a sneaky rain/mix to mix/snow burst that could leave some snow accumulation right in eastern MA / Boston area before it’s gone.

    This thing was not really showing up on any guidance until recently – very short range stuff – and represents things often missed by lower resolution guidance. So, keep an eye on it. HRRR is showing it best. If it keep showing up for several more runs, then I’ll push a button on alerting for it.

        1. Just monitor the trend on that.

          Once I figure that out, I’ll look a little harder at what the offshore thing does during the weekend.

  38. Remember recently when I said Siberia would be reloading soon?

    Zhilinda Siberia, -80F Wednesday & Thursday.
    Coldest temperature at this location since 1942.
    Coldest temperature observed in Russia since 2002.

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