Saturday January 14 2023 Forecast (9:10AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)

A mainly dry MLK Weekend, though lacking in sunshine, for most areas. One exception is this morning, as a disturbance passes through, some light precipitation in the form of rain, sleet, and in some areas snow grains (which just dusted cold surfaces here in Woburn before I wrote this). Low pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic meanders well south to well east of New England, but with a large circulation we will be in its envelope of northeast to north wind during Sunday and Monday, and some of its precipitation will wheel into the Cape Cod and southeastern MA region mainly from early Sunday to early Monday. With a mild ocean temperature and marginal air temperatures anyway there will be a fine line between liquid and frozen precipitation where it occurs, with a gradual trend from liquid to frozen overall. With a touch of ocean-enhancement, a slow-occurring snow accumulation of up to 3 inches may occur in southeastern MA during this time before the low starts to pull away. While it does that, it sheds some of its synoptic precipitation westward, but this is usually overdone by models and I am not expecting much of an impact other than some sprinkles / flurries over other portions of eastern MA up to around the NH Seacoast, especially Sunday afternoon and night. But for most locations, this will be a mainly dry 3-day stretch of weather. The next system moves in from the west by Tuesday, but will be undergoing a weakening trend due to the larger system well offshore, so we’ll have lots of clouds coming back after a brighter start to the day, but if any precipitation survives it would likely fall as a light mix of rain/snow or just light rain sometime that evening before vanishing. This leaves us with a fair and milder Wednesday as high pressure moves into the region, but not from a cold weather source region.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with areas of drizzle, very light rain, sleet, and snow grains. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 37-43. Wind NW-N increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain and snow Cape Cod and southeastern MA where some minor snow accumulation is possible inland southeastern MA. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional snow/mix showers southeastern MA and Cape Cod with additional minor snow accumulation. Lows 27-34. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Additional morning rain/snow possible southeastern MA. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially near the coast.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY: Early sun, then clouds return. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain/mix possible. Lows 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

We’ll start to see a transition out of the Pacific flow pattern, but not a quick change, so we still have 2 shots at precipitation from the last couple systems, around January 19 and 22, based on current timing. Temperatures above normal overall, but somewhat variable.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

Less Pacific flow and a little more Canadian flow is expected, with a more seasonable temperature pattern evolving, but still lacking strong cold shots. We’ll have to watch for one or two potential precipitation threats but they may be rather minor for a lack of moisture available.

58 thoughts on “Saturday January 14 2023 Forecast (9:10AM)”

    1. It’s done! Just an inspection to go, but the actual work is done. 🙂
      But now the real work begins, catching up on things I couldn’t finish before the project started, and then putting the house back together, 3 floors’ worth, starting with mom’s. It’s going to be one busy winter… Totally worth it though.

    1. Plinkity plink. I had a few too after the snow grains, prompting me to add those into my discussion.

    1. This time range is better for the 3km. The 12km struggles for some reason in here with these systems.

  4. Thanks, TK.

    While I was away, I heard that it was mostly gray (with some rain) – January 3rd through 9th – and now that I’m back we’re in a similar gray pattern for the most part. This is about as gray as I’ve experienced Boston in a long time.

    1. Should have added “in January.” I’ve certainly experienced many gray periods like this in March, April, and May, but not nearly as many in January.

    2. We’re definitely in a pretty prolonged cloudy stretch, even for us, for this time of year. But once in a while it does happen. 🙂

    2. 33 Here with very light drizzle. If it is snizzle, I cannot tell.
      I think it is liquid and not frozen. Very wet outside.

  6. Philip, I thought of you. Maybe we should expand our city contests 🙂 🙂

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1614109489464053760?s=61&t=0d5f5Yh_QOlcSO0r_yR4ow

    I don’t recall whether you use twitter. Below is most of tweet

    Atlanta now ahead of NYC and Philly for seasonal snowfall. Yeah, that kind of year.

    Evening #snow showers in metro #Atlanta
    So far this season: 0.1″

    But how about out the lack of #snow in:
    Boston: 1.4″ (-15.5″)
    NYC: Trace (-8.5″)
    Philly: Trace (-6.1″)

    NYC:
    Latest 1st measurable is
    1/29 & snowless streak at 310 days is 4th longest
    Flakes unlikely next 10 days

  8. MLK Weekend will live up to its reputation as “unsettled” (somewhat) but not all that snowy probably. Maybe the offshore precipitation shield will overreach into Boston and sneak into 128/495 belt for a brief time?

    Regardless, I am definitely giving up on January and moving on to February. It just HAS to snow everywhere by then! 🙂

    1. The vast majority of New England will be dry all weekend.

      And if you pick any 3 days in January, at least one of them will be unsettled on average. The fact that the 3rd Monday of the month is a holiday has nothing to do with it at all.

      Also, don’t write January off so quickly.

  9. A miserable winter’s day. Just warm enough to rain but not quite cold enough to snow. 🙁

    It seemed forever to get light out this morning. Sometimes I wonder if we are already on year round DST.

  12. Thanks TK. Woke up to a glaze of ice on everything this morning. Roads were a complete mess and there were several accidents prior to crews getting out there and salting the roads. Caught the town DPWs and DOT by surprise.

    1. HRRR had a pretty good handle on this although the placement was off a little bit. I’m surprised more locals did not pick up on it. But this is kind of a thing that happens when there is something “bigger” looming, even if that bigger thing is not going to be that big. The smaller short-term events get ignored. That can be a real problem, as you are seeing.

      1. I recall this happened once a year or two ago with a freezing drizzle event right before the am rush hour. The DOTs caught a lot of flack over that one. It’s always the smaller events that don’t get as much press.

  13. I know it’s an unpopular opinion but I love today’s weather right now. This is what I call good weather to get inside work done. The drier air from the west has been very stubborn to work in this far east. It’s on the way soon though.

  14. A friend of mine in the PNW .. interior Washington State .. can see bare ground patches for the first time in 65 days. There has been plenty of talk about the mild weather here in the east but you haven’t heard all that much about the persistent winter weather in the northwest… only the rain in the southwest.

  15. Quite the storm train on the 12z GFS. Very active pattern with a storm pretty much every 3 days starting Thursday. Storm track is near us for the most part which means p-type issues with each system but could be promising for NNE and the ski areas with frequent snow/frozen precip chances.

      1. Nearing the end of the Pacific storm train. Last one comes ashore Monday, after that goes by maybe one gulf wave, and then I think we go northern stream dominated up here.

        That’s a trend toward a drier pattern after the “activity”.

        1. Yeah the Thursday/Friday storm on the GFS is the last of the Pacific systems. Next 3 are waves that develop in the southern plains/gulf. Sounds like you are not totally buying the long range GFS 🙂

        2. They sure need it. But then I’m reading there is a way to,go to make up for the deficit. As we know from here, a lot of torrential rain runs off. Feast or famine.

          1. I agree with WxW that it will take a long while to fully make up the deficit in terms of direct impact. Water supply issues are improving rapidly, which is good. Agriculturally we’ll need to see additional rainfall (hopefully not in deluge form) to help out better. I do think that’s in the cards going forward though. Optimistic.

  16. NWS discussion mentioned something you’ve heard myself & JMA and others say alot in a temperature profile like the one we’ll have this weekend.

    Don’t pay much attention to 10:1 or even Kuchera snow forecasts. Look at the snow depth change maps.

  17. Thanks, TK!

    Glad “The Project” is done!

    Very cold and raw today, spitting very fine flakes at times.

  20. That little ripple on the front is slow today – relentless moisture ribbon in eastern and even parts of central MA. The HRRR had the right idea but actually moved the stuff out of here too quickly.

    Meanwhile, the short range guidance is baking off the back-in precipitation for the rest of the weekend (3km NAM & HRRR).

  21. JPD hadi…..near you?

    BREAKING NEWS ALERT
    A 3-foot water main broke early Saturday morning, causing torrents of floodwater to pour through Jamaica Plain streets and gush into basements, forcing 15 residents from their homes.

    The breach tore a large hole in Heath Street where the roadway collapsed.

    City crews are expected to remain on scene for the rest of the day to repair the broken pipe, which gave way in the vicinity of 240 Heath St., according to Tom Bagley, a spokesman for the Boston Water and Sewer Commission. They were at the scene since the break was reported around 3:30 a.m., he said.

    1. NOPE, Not near me.

      BUT, I can say it’s snow pretty good here and everything is white!!
      1/4 to 1/2 inch maybe. 🙂

      1. The HRRR kind of had it right – kind of not. Just much slower evolution than the model had.

    1. Disturbance is finally exiting, only about 9 hours after HRRR said it would. 😉 Meanwhile, except some snow showers in central MA, pretty much all of central and western New England have been dry all day!

  26. HRRR continues to back off the big low.
    Meanwhile just saw a FB weather page bite on the 10:1 snow map for 18z GFS and talking about a foot of snow for Cape Cod. Oh boy. That forecast is in trouble.

    I’ll eat my words and my computer monitor if that model is spot on.

  27. NAM trending offshore more as well.

    Short range guidance also doing a pretty good job at picking up the drier air on the western envelope. IMO the 18z GFS is completely out to lunch.

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