Sunday January 15 2023 Forecast (6:58AM)

170 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

Our region will be on the fringes of a large ocean storm today into Monday, but this storm’s main impact will be at sea, offshore. The fringe effects for southeastern New England will include some rain and snow for mainly southeastern MA and Cape Cod, along with gusty winds, especially in coastal areas, strongest also over southeastern MA and Cape Cod into Monday, before the low center starts to pull away to the east. While drier and colder air working southward into New England from eastern Canada will trend any precipitation to snow after the initial rain and mix, the dry air will also eat away at the western edge of the synoptic precipitation. Some ocean-effect mix to snow bands will likely occur from the South Shore surviving to the South Coast and across Cape Cod during this time. As far as model depiction goes, caution for model watchers that the global guidance at this range tends to over emphasize the precipitation area and how far west it gets, and the higher resolution shorter range guidance is likely a better representation of how the system plays out. Measurable snowfall should be confined mostly to the South Shore down into Cape Cod (after the wetter start there), with mainly traces of mix to snow with some minor accumulation working back into the I-95 belt and a few flurries of snow out into the I-495 belt from drying synoptic snowfall. Some sunshine may even appear at times over inland locations from south central and southwestern NH through central MA into eastern CT and possibly even RI as drier air wraps around the back side of the offshore storm, and we should see an increase in the sunshine further east as the system pulls further away by later Monday. But any clearing will be rather short-lived, as the next low pressure system from the west will spread its clouds into the region during Tuesday. As previously indicated, this system will be feeling the effect of the dry air behind the ocean storm, and will begin to fall apart, with maybe a little bit of rain and mix surviving into our region Tuesday evening as milder air also arrives. A small area of high pressure is expected to bring fair weather and somewhat above normal temperatures to our region at midweek. Currently, I am leaning toward a slower arrival of the next system behind that, which has been modeled to impact our region on Thursday, but I feel may not arrive until after we reach the end of this 5-day forecast period. Will monitor that and readjust the timing if necessary.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy – heaviest clouds eastern areas, partial sun possible well inland. Periods of rain and mix transitioning to mix and snow MA South Shore through Cape Cod working into the South Coast region of MA. Highs 35-42. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Mix/snow most likely Cape Cod, South Coast and South Shore of MA where a general coating to 2 inches of snow is likely, with isolated amounts up to 3 inches possible in some South Shore areas. Snow showers from I-95 to I-495 belts with under 1 inch of accumulation. Lows 26-33. Wind N 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-45 MPH, strongest coastal areas.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy eastern coastal areas with snow showers early, otherwise increasing sun from west to east gradually. Highs 34-41. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, especially in coastal areas.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW to W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early sun, then clouds return. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain/mix possible. Lows 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

Low pressure systems should impact the region with precipitation threats January 20, 22, and 24, based on current timing, the final systems in a Pacific parade as the pattern starts to change, shutting off the Pacific flow. Temperatures above normal, although variable.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

The pattern heading into the late days of the month looks a little less active with more high pressure in control across the Great Lakes and Northeast, and one or two frontal boundaries bringing brief, minor precipitation threats. Temperatures near to above normal with a couple colder shots, but nothing extreme.

170 thoughts on “Sunday January 15 2023 Forecast (6:58AM)”

    1. Already fixed it. The 4 was supposed to be a 3. Although, technically a range of 25-42 would not be unusual for a late autumn or mid spring radiational cooling setup. 🙂

  3. Thanks, TK.

    Temperature didn’t move much yesterday. Where I am it didn’t get above 34F. I suspect it won’t today, either, with the northerly flow.

  4. Could get tricky late this afternoon and evening on the roads. Certainly not so much the accumulation, which will be minor at best, but possible slick spots.

    1. Of course, I’m talking about the coastal plain – say, within 10 miles of the coast – and not most inland locations.

    2. Anywhere there is even a brief burst of snow can slick things up for a bit. Most likely near the coast and south of Boston.

  5. Interesting that NHC, which has had a habit of naming cumulus clouds over recent years, is ignoring what’s pretty clearly a subtropical low pressure area well south of New England. Maybe because it will never make a landfall and have an impact in any way differently than a typical cold core low, but you’d think they’d have at least mentioned it.

    Awesome look to the cloud W-NW of Boston right now. 🙂

  7. Any chance Logan can squeeze out a half inch of fluff tonight/early tomorrow? I suppose a “full inch” is expecting way too much.

    I mentioned “Logan” specifically on purpose thinking that the Airport itself could get more than the neighborhoods (i.e., JPD).

    1. If they manage to get a burst tonight that would be their best shot. But I have my doubts.

  9. Watch radar depictions for a while – a lot of what is showing up as snow on radar is being reported as rain on Cape Cod.

      1. Those radar precipitation depictions are iffy at best. A lot of those areas have switched over to a mix or snow now but it’s reaching the surface more lightly than radar is indicating in most of those areas.

  10. Speaking of watching radar loops, one can see the precip being eaten away by dry air as it moves NW. I saw a nice batch heading towards Boston that literally went poof!

        1. You are so nice to ask. I thought I had gotten away with just the upset stomach and nausea I had with third vaccine but woke up early this morning with teeth chattering chills and just a low grade fever. I’m just back to upset stomach this am and feeling a bit worn out. Neither of which is bad.

          Thank you, North.

          1. It’s a good day to just sit and attend church (virtually) and watch games. Only thing is I got a bunch of food to make munchies and can’t eat any of it.

            I guess this way I’ll be prepared for the rest of the big games 🙂

          3. I hope today is the last day and tomorrow you’ll feel better. You certainly don’t get along with these doses! Sometimes the upset stomach and nausea is worse than having a fever!

            Ivy goes Friday night. I had mine in early November with no issues. They impact each person differently

            1. Thank you. I hope you are right. Please tell Ivy I’m thinking of her. It is interesting how differently people can react. Other than the early tetanus shots, I’ve never reacted to vaccines. Gives me a bit of a pause

  19. Hmmm, most of the 12Z Hi Resolution Models show a significant uptick in the snow amounts. The regular NAM does not, but the high resolution models do

    3KM NAM
    HRRR
    HRW FV3

    Interesting.

    I am waiting on the HRDPS Canadian High Resolution model.
    That has been fairly bullish all along, BUT did back off on
    the 6Z run.

    And FWI, the 6Z GFS was up as well

    6Z GFS Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011506&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  20. Well, the precipitation is moving at a decent pace to
    the Northwest. Will decent SNOW make it up to Boston?
    If the models are correct, then yes. But right now it seems
    to be fighting dry air eroding the precip as it makes it way NW.
    I have my radar screen on loop right beside my keyboard as
    I am doing work this morning.

  21. Thanks TK !

    Wind has been strong, ramping up quickly before midnight last night.

    Sprinkles and wet snow flakes in waves.

  23. Most of the snow “accumulation” occurs after sunset when the ground cools and thermal profiles become more favorable. The two wild cards will be the northwestern extent of the snow shield as well as whether ocean effect enhancement occurs. Still looks like Plymouth County has the best potential for at least a few inches of snow —too warm on the Cape, too dry northwest.

  24. That tight little low center had been tracking NNE overnight, then NE this morning, and in the last few hours has made a turn and is now moving ESE away from the coast.

  25. I was reading somewhere last week by one of the good local meteorologists that the winters are getting Warmer & summers are getting hotter

  27. Looks to me like the short range guidance went to hell right at the last minute. Can’t forecast the snow amounts correctly.

  28. Not a flake here yet, despite what the NWS radar shows. Not reaching the ground. I’ve been able to see blue sky at least along and sometimes above the W-NW horizon all morning.

  29. According to the HRRR from 12z, there should already be 2-4 inches of snow on the ground in Plymouth County. And that is the ratio-correct snow forecast. I’m guessing nobody in Plymouth County has 2-4 inches as of 11 a.m. 😉

    Confirmation from my Plymouth County folks please? 🙂

    1. I’m at work so I can’t confirm , but it’s later tonight I thought for the minor accumulation??

      2. Yes, just trying to confirm that the HRRR forecast for this morning is totally out to lunch. It was doing well yesterday too! Oh well…

  31. We’ve gotten a quick feather dusting in the last 10 minutes.

    I don’t think anyone has 2-4. I did see 2 cars in marshfield who had a thick coating – 1 inch on them, probably coming up from south of marshfield.

    2. Ok that makes sense. Yours and SSK’s observations confirm my suspicion that the HRRR model (and most of the others this morning) are completely out to lunch. Disappointing. This is where meteorology comes into play, big time.

  32. The “real” snow is getting close to Boston.
    I suspect I’ll see flakes within the hour.

    The questions are:
    How intense will it be?
    How long will it last?

    To be answered in due time. 🙂

    1. Question #1 answer: Not very.
      Question #2 answer: Off & on for about 12 hours, maybe more off than on.

  33. Good morning all!
    Light snow in Kingston. Grass is partially snow-covered and pavement is just wet.

  38. This was some updated text from NWS Boston. I had to chuckle at the part where they said “snowflakes … suspended in the air” .. haha!

    Here it is (10:10AM)…

    Inverted trough from well-developed but distant mid-Atlc coastal
    gale continues to spiral steadier precipitation into Cape Cod
    and into parts of Southeast MA. The western extent of the
    precip shield is being fractured by significant dry air
    advection on N/NNE winds. Dewpoints are already down into the
    teens into Norwood!

    Winter Weather Advisory headlines look good, but am considering
    expanding the Advisory further westward into the remainder of
    Plymouth into at least a part of Bristol Counties in MA. Will
    assess trends and incoming guidance before making that decision,
    probably by early afternoon. While forecast precip have shown
    upward trends in overnight model solutions, as has been messaged
    pretty extensively, this is a situation where marginally
    supportive temperatures in the lower 30s and little in the way
    of mesoscale banding will limit snow efficiency/snow-to-liquid
    ratios to values far less than 10:1 (something more like 7-8:1).
    It`s also a longer-duration, drawn-out light- accumulating snow
    that may at times mix to rain.

    For this update I did increase QPF and snow/rain amounts a
    little bit through 00z Monday for southeastern MA and adjacent
    portions of southeastern RI. For areas in the Boston/Providence
    corridor north and west, the drier air probably will lead to
    just cloudy conditions with occasional flurries/snowflakes
    suspended in the air at times and should be dry much of the
    time.

    Still quite breezy with gusts 25-30 mph for most, but have been
    around 45 mph as of mid-morning obs across South Shore, Cape Cod
    and Nantucket/MVY. No other changes needed at this time.

    1. And forget teens for dew points. The dew points are 10 or below in most of eastern MA from Boston southwest, west, and northwest! That is seriously DRY air.

    2. That is truly funny.

      SO I guess that is why it won’t snow much here as the flakes will stay suspended in the air. 🙂

  39. Currently 36 here in JP.
    Doesn’t bode well for accumulating snow, but I suspect that it will drop some IF it ever starts snowing. 🙂

    2. I have a DP of 12 here in JP.

      So, IF it does snow, plenty of room for that temp to drop.
      However, it is so dry, will ANY of this snow EVER MAKE IT TO THE GROUND??????????????

      1. That dp is much more of a snow eater than helping condition the air for much accumulation, at least for the next several hours, and as the low tries to wheel moisture in, we continue to advect more and more dry air in from the north.

  40. Comparing the HRRR panels for 17z forecast from a few hours ago to where the snow actually is at 17z .. not even close. It has solid snow over all of eastern MA right out to near 495. Not. Even. Close.

    See, again, I have said many times in the past that the guidance takes virga and turns it into surface precipitation. You have to watch for this when we have strong dry air advection. This was the entire basis for my drier forecast for the I-95 belt westward today. Eventually some of that dry air may be overcome, but it will be hard because it’s just continuing to be pumped into the region as the moisture is trying to move in from the east. So far, the dry air is winning fairly easily.

  42. Here in South Dartmouth you can tell storm is battling the dry air – and losing. Bursts of snow and then dies out. A lot of wind – not sticking so it will have to snow overnight when temps dip to get to 3 inches

  43. Vicki, hope you are feeling better. I will be getting my shot on Thurs. My back has been out and I have IBS which means my stomach tends to not feel good a lot. The other shots I had I ran a low-grade fever and aching arm. Will the nxt. shot affect me worse if my back is hurting bad and my stomach is feeling lousy? I know the shot affects everyone differently, but what if you aren’t really sick but in pain and discomfort from other things?

    1. Thank you, Rainshine.Might be a good question too for your pcp. Both my girls have yet to have a flu shot because of various minorhealth things. My stomach is always weird and the last few times seems to be a bit worse after vax but not anything I’m not used to. I can’t think your back would make a difference but again I would definitely ask your pcp. Good luck!!!

  44. So is it safe to say little or no snow is likely in the Natick area this weekend? It’s a bit windy here but no sign of snow anywhere, though some forecasts seem to still have accumulations overnight.

    1. Yes, FIRST flakes just started flying in JP.

      Very very light at the moment, but it has started.
      How long will it last? will it just dry up shortly after it began? OR will it hold on for awhile. To be determined. 🙂

  46. The dry air might have something to say, but at least the radar looks like something briefly might be about to pass through Boston and it’s beayleby suburbs.

  47. I can confirm it has been snowing steadily in the Danvers/Middleton area for the last 20 minutes or so…dusting on car tops and grassy surfaces

    1. I’ve been very entertained by this game. Mostly listening on radio as I was taking some outside Christmas lights down with my son and now I am out doing some errands. That was one very long first half! Don’t count Miami out in this game!

      I meant to say earlier I hope you are feeling better!

  52. Well it got to almost moderate snow briefly here in the Woburn area and kind of dusted the dirt surfaces but the dry air has obliterated that band and there is very little left of it. No surprise. Everything remains pretty much confined to the areas it was expected to be.

    1. The bills have always been a favorite team of mine. They were second and now with Bucs, I’m undecided. I do like when a team that is discounted shows it belongs in the game and Miami sure has. But I am rooting for the Bills.

      Tomorrow night, I have to apologize. I can’t root against Brady after what he gave us. But I know I’ll be torn while watching since I know Dallas is your team.

  55. Cowboys looking for a postseason win on the road for the first time since 1992. They have lost eight straight playoff games. If the Cowboys played like they did last week against Washington there going to get blown out.

  57. Well is that all she wrote?

    Snowed for about 45 min to an hour. Dusted everything once again, but that was all.

    All bands coming in off of the ocean are separated by a lot of Nothing. I wonder if another band ever makes it to the city.

    Would not surprise me if that was it. 🙂

  58. That band on the south shore has meant business the last 10 minutes. Thick coating quickly and pavements covered.

    1. It keeps back building and training. With darkness and this intensity, 2-3 inches is possible if it stays put for a couple hrs

  59. Now that I’m home I can make an observation down here for pembroke & Hanover.it’s 30 degrees now with a mix & all of the yards are heavy coated & roads suger coated . I can definitely ( if this continues ) see things getting covered up more with hazardous driving conditions. I’ll report back later

    2. I have been discussing that this low would probably be at the very least borderline subtropical starting on Friday. That is when the guidance started to show development to me that looked like something consistent with a hybrid.

      That thing is very close to subtropical if it is not already. But NHC has chosen to ignore it. Subtropical cyclones can form over the Gulf stream even in midwinter. Many of them are not classified as such.

    1. That would have to do with a band of snow in the region as the sun was gone and darkness had fallen. That is when most of the accumulation will occur…

  68. Even this main band of snow that has made it in far enough to dust my ground here again is being obliterated by the dry air… Not that that’s a surprise either.

  70. Snowing half way decently here in JP. Another nice coating going on as I was just out. Very low water content snow. Very Picturesque out there.

  73. Only about 0.3 here in Woburn so far. Main roads have a coating of slushy snow but wet tire tracks. Side roads are a little more white but not much on them – thicker coating. Grass / car tops / cold surfaces have the measurable. Snow band is starting to look more feeble with time. Southeastern MA / Cape Cod is out of the bands and just has some light ocean-effect snow at this time.

    1. It has been snowing on and off since early yesterday in our area SSK. Certainly not a blockbuster but certainly not a dry weekend around here. Went to pick up my son from work and the roads were slick. Take it slow if you go out.

      1. Made my day. Hi Sue. I’m jealous that you all have snow but cannot think of any folks I’d rather have it. Enjoy and please be safe

          1. It was a reply to Sue and also a joke. 🙂
            I’m glad to see the post too. 🙂

            I’ve had people razzing me about my “dry weekend” not working out so well. 😉

            Eh, we were overdue for a little snow I guess. It looks nice outside.

      1. Hybrid I really do think. Under 80F water so not true tropical, but it’s in that middle ground where it’s almost warm enough. It’s not such a sharp line that 79.9F can’t be and 80.0F is. There is always a little fuzzy area along the borders. I’ve thought this thing had the potential to be a hybrid / subby for a couple days now. Ironically the lobe of moisture we have had wheel through our area is almost independent of it, but really just part of the same complex circulation.

        The guidance sniffed this out to some degree a # of days ago (ECMWF best I think), but initially it was off by several hundred miles.

  79. Best I can tell the forecast amounts have verified for the most part. Max 3 inches South Shore. Under 1 inch other places, but the under 1 inch swath made it further inland than I gave it credit for. Will wait for official amounts, if they ever publish some. Then again I’ve been asleep for a couple hours so I have no clue. 😉

    I was just catching up on the 3rd football game via DVR.

    May add a tiny bit more to the snow totals overnight / tomorrow but the bulk is done.

    This coming week – more of the same – immensely busy, shorter blogs and not a lot of check in time. Have a great week all.

Comments are closed.