Saturday AM Update

141 Comments

9:12AM

Snow threat done! Anything left will be light rain/mix south of Boston. As one of my bloggers said, “if you sleep late you’ll miss it”. That was only partially true because many places never had anything to miss. 🙂

Updated forecast below…

TODAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix mainly south of Boston through early afternoon. High 40-45. Wind light variable becoming E.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Low around 30 except some middle 20s inland valleys. Wind light N.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. High 45-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain showers, may end as snow showers after midnight. No accumulation expected. Low 30-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW.

MONDAY: Decreasing clouds. High 42-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 28. High 53.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain showers. Low 35. High 49.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 50.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 55.

EASTER WEEKEND SNEAK PEAK: Dry weather, warming trend.

141 thoughts on “Saturday AM Update”

  3. Providence, RI has reported .17 inches of rain and I’m guessing we are somewhere between .05 to .1 inches of rain in Marshfield. (I really should get myself a weather station….maybe when the mortgage is paid off 🙂 ) Anyhow, we’ll take it…it’s given the ground a bit of dampness and the sun’s not out to immediately evaporate it.

  4. Interesting little feature down by the western end of the Florida Panhandle. It’s not tropical, but it certainly has a twist to it on the radar and has some showers ad thunderstorms along with. Just to its east are some very strong early morning thunderstorms in northern Florida. I’m thinking a lot of people are being awakened this Sat morning by thunder down there.

    1. In reading the New Orleans weather discussion, they called the above feature an MCV. Since I didn’t know much about this term, I looked it up and got an easy explanation. But, what caught my attention is that there was an intense one in May 2009 over portions of the central US that was so severe, they nicknamed it the inland hurricane. Google May 2009 inland hurricane, and a couple of links recalling this relatively recent event will appear.

  6. I am glad we did not get any snow. No I am not a snow hater, just dont want It this time of year. I am sure you understand my thinking, I hope. I will take advantage of this cool day and try to get rid of some wood with a nice fire today. I am looking forward to some warmer weather this time next week. Have a nice weekend everybody.

    1. Nice idea John. My grandson decided in January he was afraid of the fires in the fireplace so we haven’t had them. But they are all out for the day so thanks to your mentioning a fire I just started one, sat myself in the recliner and am going to read A great way to enjoy a damp early spring Saturday !

  7. Would anyone be willing to go out on a limb and forecast April’s weather in terms of temps and precip relative to average, as well as trends?

  8. Hi Amy… I am thinking April will have temps slightly above normal temps and precipitation just below normal.

  9. Any chance that clipper-like system coming through sun night and early mon redevelops south of us and brings some enhanced precip to the area?

  10. Geez after Mondays small rain event the rest of the week and into next weekend looks dry and temps in the low 50’s to begin week and low 60’s to end of week.

  11. When is the last time we received over 6 inches from a snow event in April? Just curious,, is it the 97 April blizzard 15 yrs ago?

    1. Last year ? March 31 and April 1. I seem to remember just under 6 here but over 6 north and west. Or am I have a fun daydream ? You all know I make things up 😀

      1. I had thought this time last year there was a small system. If my memory is right there was snow flying in the air on April 1, I dont recall it being a big event. Though I could be wrong. Wow bruins explosion goin on. Turko just made a great save.

        1. I don’t think it was along the coast. I think initially we were all thinking another April fools storm but it wasn’t as bad by a long shot. But I do think more than 6 this area and west and north. Again my poor old overused mind can play tricks with my memory

          1. You may be right right. I am almost certain there was some storm. You understand me when I say I don’t want snow now, do you. How’s the baby. We had my 15 month year old niece here for two nights last week. My wife had a blast. Baby went to bed at 7 and slept to 7am, and went right down. My wife said how come it was not that easy with us.

          2. John everyone has favorite times of the year. It’d be boring as heck if everyone liked the same thing. Heat isn’t my favorite but I still like it cause it beings thunderstorms. 15 months is such a fun time. The baby seems to be a carbon copy of my son. She sleeps 4 hours. Eats. Plays happily then sleeps 4 more hours. We will see if it continues. My son never changed so hopefully Kailey won’t either. Thanks for asking

      1. Also the last time Boston got over 6 inches of snow in a snow event in April was 15 yrs ago, and before that was 1982. Climatology tells us it is unlikely 🙂

        1. As was the October storm and the tornado outbreak last June and Irene and this winter in general. I think we will see more and more unlikely events coming up.

  12. topkatt I saw your Picture on the wall of the meteorology rooms at u mass Lowell today durring a tour of the enviomental science department

    1. Are you sure it was me? I haven’t been there for a looooooooooooong time? Did I have spiked hair and did it look very 1980s? LOL

        1. i should have taken a picture but i was to fasinated in the maps and stuff to bother my dad and mom for the camera 🙁

      2. they have Barry Burbank and some other great weather men on there. It is a really large wall

    2. Too funny. I was up there today too with my wife and son for their open house day for students who were just accepted for the coming fall. My son is going to major in Computer Science. Not sure if he will end up at at UML but he liked what he saw.

  13. A final reminder. Hope you’ll consider turning non essential lights off tonight between 8:30-9:30. It’s for our planet – a very worthwhile cause 🙂

    1. I agree with you Vicky 100% but when u seen what I’ve seen it almost seems like a waste of time, sure it makes ya feel good but living in Midwest and south for years and see how they respond to that kind of stuff, we need to get them on board before we overall do any good, great to see though, but it this point unless everyone’s on board its a losing battle, I’ve seen people there dump chemicals there also allowed to just burn there trash, along with alot worse, and u know Vicky in the south they got street lights on roads in the farms, they don’t even have them here on exits were 100,000 cars exit per day, but that’s for another day, in other words from my experience they could care less about going green or worry about saving energy 🙂

      2. Charlie from what I’ve read the countries who participate save 8-12% in the one hour. If we all figure it does no good then it really doesn’t. I also wouldn’t look to the US to lead since we tend to lag way behind other countries. I have kids and grandkids and hope before we totally destroy the earth for them that we will wake up. In the meantime ill do my part no matter how little.

  14. Nice coating of snow this morning here in Coventry, CT. We got about 1″ and a little rain mixed in after daybreak. 0.3″ melted equivalent. Was just enough to make snowballs and pull the kids around the yard in the sled. There was as much as 3.5″ reported in Litchfield County and it was enough to bring the plows out.

    The storm tomorrow night is looking colder and colder on the models. I wouldn’t be surprised if the interior/higher elevations wake up to a white sugar coating again Monday AM.

  15. You make some good points Charlie. I also think your forcasting for this past winter was real good. You tell it like it is and stick to it. Keep posting brother.

  17. Happy April 2012 everyone!
    I just read this on the NWS site; “THERE IS A PLAUSIBLE PATTERN SHIFT TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND BUT ONLY SPECULATIVE AS OF NOW” Could someone elaborate on what type of “pattern shift” they’re talking about.

  19. Shotime -What this means is that the possibilty of a plausible pattern shift is somewhat speculative given the fact that no plausible pattern shifts have occurred in all cases where they have predicted them in the past few months ,thus one should figure one won’t occur this time either but they have to say something ! This may be what they said but not what they meant HUH!

  21. Heavy frost here last night too. I’m still seeing those darned mosquitoes. Do you think they are smart enough to hide under the pots covering my baby plants?

    1. Good coating of frost here a couple hours ago as well. Melted now under the beautiful sunshine.

    2. I was really hoping with the lack of rain/snow we wouldn’t have such a bad mosquito season, but it sure looks like their off to an early start!

      1. My favorite time of year to sit on the deck is early spring for many reasons but one big one is that there are no mosquitoes to fend off. What I saw during that warm spurt were more mosquitoes than I typically see at the height of the season. I’ve seen thos before however and thought it meant a really bad year but they dropped to a typical level I sure do hope that is the case this year

  22. And the March numbers are in…..(Taunton NWS)

    Logan : + 8.4F
    Worcester : +9.2F
    Hartford : +9.3F
    Providence : +7.4F

    1. Worcester had the highest monthly precip total, at 1.66 inches, more than 2.5 inches below average.

      Outside of tonight’s precip potential, the next 7 to 10 days after that look very dry, with lots of dry air coming in from SE Canada on northwesterly winds.

      1. I’ll be darned if I can remember when we got the weather station set up but I would guess it would cover pretty much the month of march. Total here is 0.57 inch. Pretty meager.

  25. End of this morning’s 00z Euro run shows a strong storm creeping up the east coast as that tough really digs south. Saw this feature on yesterday’s run and thought it might get in here ~ Easter Sunday. Doesn’t even exist on the GFS though, just showers that harmlessly slide off the SE coast. Hope it doesnt happen on easter but it would provide some much needed precip. Something to watch this week!

  26. I’ve been curious about something. All winter we have been wanting the NAO to go negative. From what i’ve been hearing, it is negative as we speak. However, it seems we are also going to be hard pressed to get any beneficial precip anytime soon. I’m guessing there are many other factors other than a neg NAO that produce major east coast storms?

  27. I’m thinking from this rain event this evening will only last for about 4 hrs starting around 4pm and ending around 8pm, I expect most will receive between .15-.30 of rain, I’ll take any rain we can get bc it looks dry for at least the next 5 to 6 days. Hope everyone’s having a great Sunday 🙂

  28. You have to get the northern and southern branches of the jet stream to phase as well as a negative NAO to get a good size snowstorm here in New England. Another thing high pressure to the north to bring down the cold air and the track which is key.

  29. I looked at the NAO over the last few days. It is fairly neutral compared to the previous month or do. While most ensembles show it negative over the next few days, it wants to go back neutral to slight positive middle of the month. My understanding is to really see a regime change it needs to flip for 10 plus days, which I don’t see. At least that’s what the models show. The lack of precip is not normal for April, but the temps forecasted over the next couple weeks seem pretty normal to me.

    1. 20- 30 inches fell from that storm. It started around 11pm on the 31. We have pictures in the shop from. guys doing snow removal. I’ve been with the union 5 yrs so I missed that one, I was with the hospital at that time, just not doing what I do now. Big spring storm.

  31. I remember that storm quite well and having an April snow day. It was great because I was able to stay up late since school was cancelled the next day to see a thrilling NCAA championship game between Arizona and Kentucky which Arizona won in OT.

  32. John, started around 11: a.m. on the 31st and all done accumulating by noon on the 1st. by my recollection !!!!24-25″ in 24 hrs. Wet&heavy .

    1. The information I looked at it started at 11pm on March 31 and ended at 3pm on April 1st. But it does not matter.

      1. Definitely started in the morning. I remember standing in the barn door and listening to the silence in the woods around me thinking the animals even knew something was coming

  33. I believe the April fools blizzard 15 yrs ago will be a record that will not be broken for a long time, that storm was a once in a lifetime blizzard in April.

    1. Was it pretty comparable to March 13 blizzard and not as bad as 1978? Also how about the march 28? 1984 storm. Weve had some great ones. Please know I do not wish for any storm that is destructive but I can’t help being in awe of their power.

      1. 🙂 I’m just saying that we will not or is very unlikely to see another blizzard as bad as that again in April in our lifetimes 🙂

          1. Well not in April but good size storms that were awfully close to april I can’t even remember if last oct qualified as a blizzard. Does anyone remember.

  34. After a most bizarre period of extremely warm weather atop Mt. Washington from about March 11th until the 23rd, they’ve reverted to a much more normal pattern. The observatory has recorded close to 10 inches of snow since the 24th, along with some very cold nights with very gusty winds – wind chill last Monday was at -36F. The summit should be getting up to 7 inches of snow tonight (valleys to pick up 1-3 inches). It’s too bad for the ski areas that the extreme warmth didn’t hold off until April, and the current normal weather pattern didn’t occur between March 11th until the 23rd. They lost a ton of business during that two-week period. For current pictures from the OBS:

    http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/cam/

  35. I would ask one of the more in the know people to weigh in ,but my recollection of 1997 did not meet blizzard criteria because we did not have the temperatures ???It was a lot of paralysing snow with some good wind but I remember it being wet&heavy which would seem like it was not a cold storm !!!

    1. Kirbet. I remember 1984 being about the same and you are right to see what the experts say. Not sure about march 13 199? Either.

    2. Kirbet – NWS Blizzard criteria is sustained or frequent wind gusts of 35 mph or more, frequent visibilities of ≤ ¼ mile, and falling and/or blowing snow for 3 hours or more. The storm met blizzard criteria in many areas because winds were sustained at 35mph+ for more than 3 hours along with the heavy snow. In fact, I think some coastal areas reported wind gusts in excess of 70mph with that storm.

        1. Dont short change yourself vicki, you know plenty. I dont remember on the start time. I got the information from bostonchannel . Com.

          1. I’d bet its 11 am. I remember calling to the kids who were getting their horses settled that it was time to leave. A friend of each of my three ended up “stuck” at the house for the duration. We pulled mattresses into the livingroom and all slept there. We toasted marshmallows in the fire. On the 3rd or 4th day husband and I went put looking for wood and when we got home all 6 kids met us in the mudroom with goofy grins. We got into the house and one of them flicked the light switch and the lights came on. I was so disappointed :(. And they thought they’d gotten the better of me

  37. Both 12z GFS and Euro indicate a gorgeous Easter weekend with sunny skies and highs in the 60’s both days. Unfortunately though, looks like another very dry week.

    1. Mark as much as I would love an Easter weekend sunny and in the 60’s, im not so sure it will happen. I know the models show this but I have a feeling this blocking pattern holds on a bit longer than expected. Last week it was supposed to be into the 60’s and 70’s early this coming week. Hope I’m wrong though!

    1. And as soon as I said that a nice steady rain started. We’ve had .04 already which doesn’t sound like much but comparatively it is a good start

  41. My family has taken up a collection and has offered to pay anyone who’d like to keep me for a few days – said a few days They may barter for more I don’t understand. I’ve been smiling all day and walking around saying “ahhhhh 15 years ago – what a wonderful memory”.

  43. John,Mark et al I beleive they changed the criteria for a blizzard a few years back .The old criteria did include a temperature factor as well if my memory serves me . What I meant by people in the know means someone that knows more about the subject than I . I do not claim that these statements are factual , I am only giving my best recollection at this time . Let’s see if anyone can find this info and prove me right or wrong ???

    1. Ok. Tk I am sure would know. As far as the start time on that storm I read It this morning on bostonchannel.com.

      1. From Taunton NWS…….sustained winds or frequent gusts >35mph for 3 hrs or more AND snow or blowing snow reducing visibilities <1/4 mile for 3 hrs or more. Also, these conditions must be occurring for a majority of the time during the time period of 3 hrs or more.

        1. On Taunton NWS page….lower left….look for descriptive and then under that, warning criteria and you’ll find the criteria for all possible warnings, etc.

  44. I believe in Boston it started mid morning as light rain and then quickly changed to snow by early afternoon.

    The change in blizzard criteria was that winds do not have to be sustained at 35 but rather gusting at 35 or higher for 3+ hours. Also 1/4 mile visibility or less.

    1. I have never even heard of tempature being involved in a blizzard. I always thought wind gust and hours. Also vizability.

  46. Hadi, I had googled criteria for a blizzard and if you find an article by aStu Ostro of the weather channel from oct.2006 it states that blizzard criteria used to have a temp .factor of below 20f . As I said I would like to see this confirmed by someone in the know !!!

    1. The guys trying to answer your question are the people in the know. There knowledge on weather is excellent. Not sure where your going with this, but either one of them would know.

  47. John, all I am saying is that blizzard criteria has changed . Temperature was once a factor !That is where I am going ! And as I said I will let those in the know confirm this !I agree that their knowledge is excellent .

    1. Ok. But again they are in the know here. I suspect you may only want this answered by Tk. But that’s fine.

    2. Hadi gave criteria that NOAA defines as a blizzard.

      Sustained or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more, frequent visibilities of ≤ 1⁄4 mile, falling and/or blowing snow for 3 hours or more.

  48. John ,I as well as yourself have a respect for the knowledge of weather by the bloggers on this site .If it is TK that answers my question fine !! If it is the Easter Bunny that answers it that is fine also !!!Hopefully that confirms your suspicions !

    1. My kids called my mom the Easter bunny. Since she’s no longer here does that qualify me by default?

    2. Dude. People are answering your question. You keep saying you want the people in the know to confirm this. There is no doubt in my mind the people who answered your question confirmed this for you.

    1. Wonderful pictures. Thanks. I think the Boston common was my favorite. It could have been any decade. And the military figures. Was it called through the snow. And snow guy and texture. That was fun to look through 🙂

    2. thanks for sharing! i will bookmark and look at that during the dog days of summer when its upper 90’s and a heat index over 100 😆

  50. Kirbet, I have found several articles including the one u mentioned from Stu Ostro that do confirm a temperature criteria was once part of the equation, however, none of them say exactly when it changed.

    1. I remember that too and wonder if they did change it. I found this on weather channel but there wasn’t a date so perhaps it is an older post or perhaps not.

      Blizzards
      Blizzards are characterized by low temperatures (usually below 20 degrees Fahrenheit) and accompanied by winds that are at least 35 mph or greater. Blizzards also have sufficient falling and/or blowing snow that reduces visibility to 1/4 mile or less at least three hours.

      A severe blizzard is considered to have temperatures near or below 10 degrees Fahrenheit, winds exceeding 45 mph, and visibility reduced by snow to near zero.

      Storm systems powerful enough to cause blizzards usually form when the jet stream dips far to the south, allowing cold air from the north to clash with warm air from the south. Blizzard conditions often develop on the northwest side of these storm systems.

    2. Makes sense as its what I found on Novak . My guess as I said was nws def I found may be outdated.

  53. Weather channel calling for a widespread 0.5 inches of rain tonight. Not a soaking but I’ll take it

  54. The temperature criteria in the definition was dropped sometime in the 1980s, I believe.

    1. Thanks TK. Look at that. Everyone was right and we can all sleep well and dream of rain. Lots of it

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