Tuesday January 17 2023 Forecast (7:44AM)

73 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)

We will see a rare appearance of full sunshine for several hours today as we’re in an area of dry air behind the now-departed ocean storm, but clouds will be moving in quickly this afternoon ahead of the next low, approaching from the Midwest / northern Mid Atlantic. This system will be weakening and its precipitation shield may survive as a small area of light rain this evening before dissipating. The system will be in the process of being absorbed by the ocean storm Wednesday as we find ourselves in a northwesterly air flow behind it, with dry weather and a gusty breeze, but on the mild side since there is not really any cold air to be tapped just yet. A weak area of high pressure moves across the region Wednesday night into early Thursday with tranquil weather, but in this active pattern the next low, this one more formidable, makes its way into the Northeast during Thursday and Thursday night with extensive cloud cover and a shield of precipitation. The set-up for that system is a bit more complex, as at that time we’ll have colder air starting to press in from the north. While I think most start as rain (maybe some mix in southern NH), we likely see a transition to a larger area of sleet and snow where north of and up to the I-90 belt, but not exactly sure on timing and location for a rain/sleet/snow zones. That will be monitored and fine-tuned over the next couple days. This will be an elongated system with a trough behind the initial low passing through on Friday with additional precipitation, probably mostly snow showers, except rain/mix/snow to the south closer to the South Coast. Drier weather should be back with us for the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 39-46. Wind variable to W 5-10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of light rain possible during the evening. Lows 32-39. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Rain arriving west to east afternoon, except possible rain/sleet/snow mix southern NH. Highs 38-45 but may turn cooler late-day. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely with greatest chance of frozen/mix in northern areas. Lows 31-38. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with mix/snow showers likely. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)

Low pressure impact potentials January 22 into January 23, and again late in the period as we remain in an active pattern. Too soon to determine disturbance intensity and precipitation type. Temperatures mostly above normal, though variable.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)

General pattern looks like it leaves the door open for more seasonable cold, at least in 1 or 2 shots with passing disturbances originating further north than previously, but some guidance suggest one potential more substantial precipitation producer coming from Gulf of Mexico moisture, so that will be something to keep an eye on in the days ahead.

73 thoughts on “Tuesday January 17 2023 Forecast (7:44AM)”

  4. Thanks, TK.

    As I’ve always been a Buffalo fan…second to the Pats of course… I’d like to see Buffalo. But having watched Dallas last night, I wouldn’t be disappointed with a win for them either.

  5. Thanks TK !

    Weatherwise, I’ll always remember this MLK Jr weekend for having a cat 1 hurricane past SE of New England 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  7. Interesting feature later this week.

    Its trying to redevelop a bit to our south.

    Don’t know if that will happen in time to cut off some mildness coming in aloft and also, the airmass in the boundary layer is marginal at best, especially Boston points south and east.

  9. Thanks TK
    I am a very happy Cowboys fan today. The 49ers will be a tall order. If the Cowboys play like they did last night they have a great shot to win the game.

    3. JJ they looked great, but that kicker may be looking for a new job , can’t keep missing the easy kick!!

        1. He missed 3 out of 53 during the season. Not typical at all.
          He just had the worst game of his life, but it ended up not mattering and I’m sure he profoundly thanked his teammates, who seemed to be very supportive of him in his difficulty.

  10. Thank you, TK.

    I think the Cowboys are the best team left talent-wise. Here, I’m referring to the team as a whole – on “both sides of the ball” as they say. But, there’s an important caveat: Consistency or lack thereof. Cowboys have demonstrated a proficiency at being inconsistent from week to week. So, the question is which Cowboys team shows up next week?

  11. The frustrating thing this season about being a Cowboys fan is there are times they look like the best team in football and other times they look like they could lose to the worst team in football.

  16. Thanks TK.

    Normally I would be rooting for the more southerly solution with the upcoming late week storm, however we are heading up to Sunday River ME Friday PM for the weekend and are hoping for a decent dump of snow there. It looks now like the cold air press from the north could actually suppress the heaviest precipitation and confine it to CNE and SNE as opposed to NNE. At least at a minimum, it looks like whatever falls up there is all snow.

  17. Quite the pattern upcoming too…..following whatever happens with the late week storm, 12z models are depicting three additional storm threats…one early next week, one later next week, and one early the following week. Seems to be an overall increasing amount of cold air to work with for these systems as well.

    12z CMC with two major snowstorms next week.

    12z GFS with a rainstorm early next week and snowstorm late week.

    12z CMC run total snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023011712&fh=240&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gdps

    12z GFS run total snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011712&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  18. The way this winter has been I will be happy with one snowstorm. When I am happy with sugar coatings of snow you know it has been a bad winter so far.

    3. Wow. My SIL had to climb out windows twice in Framingham ….sorry. I know I’m repeating….but this is amazing

      To Toms point. I am hoping for at least one storm this year that gets JPD excited. I think he is the best barometer for a true storm.

    5. With drifting, this was very much like the Blizzard of ’78 here. I have never seen anything like it since.

  24. Thanks, TK…

    With all that the city and the team has had to endure in the last 12 months, my heart is with the Bills.

  25. I’ll have snow accumulation #’s on Thursday/Friday event starting with tomorrow morning’s update, but my preliminary idea for the area is 3+ in southern NH and along the MA border, 1-3 from that MA border to the I-90 corridor, and under 1 inch to the south of that. The majority of the snow should occur during the day on Friday.

  26. Vicki I replied to your question about the Dallas kicker above in case you didn’t catch it. 🙂

  27. The only negative last night for the Cowboys was Brett Maher missing those extra points. We can’t have that against the 49ers Sunday.

  30. 12z Euro maintains the theme of a very active pattern over the next 10 days with three significant storm threats:

    Fridays system (stays mostly rain south of the Pike):

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023011712&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Sunday night to Monday storm (snow quickly over to rain in SNE with HEAVY snow north and west):

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023011712&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Next Thursday’s storm (All out BLIZZARD for SNE):

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023011712&fh=216&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. You are breakin’ my heart here. Winter is my favorite beach time. So glad you got to enjoy. Awesome photo

      1. Thanks Vicki!

        We were there from about 1:00 to 2:30. There really were quite a few people taking advantage of the day. Some high thin clouds were just starting to move in by 2:30.

    2. I’ll be heading to the NH Seacoast sometime in the next 2 weeks to dip my feet in the water for January.

      #FeetInAtlanticWaterEveryMonth2023

  32. According to my newspaper, if the AFC Championship game is between Buffalo and Kansas City, it will be played on a neutral field.

    Does anyone know why? Is that the way that championship game will be played from now on?

    1. In Atlanta.

      Buffalo had already beaten KC during the regular season, so head to head, they won that matchup.

      When the Damar Higgins injury occurred and cancelled the game, it took away buffalo’s chance to win the game and end up with the same record as KC.

      In the event of tied records, the first tie breaker is head to head, which would have sent the game to Buffalo. At the same time, Buffalo could have lost, and the game would have been in KC. But obviously we’ll never know which way it would have turned out.

      One time scenario.

      1. Oh, so this was the leagues way of trying to be fair to the 2 teams. I’m in agreement, I just wish they’d have picked an outdoors stadium.

        1. The indoor stadium also erases any chance that weather would have an impact. I think it is now as neutral as possible.

    2. The NFL worked this out with all people involved and they agreed this was the fair way to do it after the cancellation of the other game. It was on the news last week but was given very little attention, probably due to weather-hype or something.

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