Wednesday January 18 2023 Forecast (7:40AM)

97 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)

An upper level trough and surface cold front swings through the region this morning and midday with lots of clouds and the threat of a rain shower, followed by fair weather the rest of the day, and still mild despite a gusty breeze. A small area of high pressure brings more traquil and dry weather overnight into early Thursday, but clouds advance quickly on Thursday ahead of the next low pressure system. The initial primary low center is destined for the eastern Great Lakes but will redevelop near or just south of the New England South Coast Thursday night and early Friday as it tracks to the east. This will be followed by the trough which remains of the old low during Friday, drawing out this unsettled period, which will also have frozen precipitation involved. A rain/snow line should be present at the start of the event with snow in interior northern MA and southern NH, rain elsewhere. This rain/snow line will waver around, probably heading north for a time before coming back to the south, then progressing even further south on Friday as we transition from steadiest precipitation into more occasional. The change-over will probably not quite make it all the way through the South Coast region before the end of the precipitation. This sets up a snow (and some sleet) accumulation profile that by the time we wind things up on Friday evening will look like this: traces / coatings of snow south of I-90, but maybe up to 1 inch in the higher elevations of south central MA, northwestern RI, and northeastern CT, a general 1-3 inch snowfall north of I-90 except 3-5 inches north central MA and southern NH. The weekend starts off fair with high pressure moving in during Saturday, then ends with a return to unsettled weather as low pressure approaches on Sunday, spreading a shield of rain in that may start as mix/snow for some inland areas by late in the day or evening, based on current expecting timing.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A passing rain shower possible through midday. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH this morning, NW 10-20 MPH with possible higher gusts this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Rain arriving west to east afternoon, except possible sleet and snow interior northern MA and southern NH. Highs 38-45 but may turn cooler late-day. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely with greatest chance of frozen/mix I-495 west south of I-90, and I-90 north otherwise. Lows 31-38. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain/mix South Coast, periods of snow elsewhere, tapering with time. Highs 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain and some inland northern area mix/snow possible by late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NE to E and increasing to 10-20 MPH by late-day and evening.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)

Stormy start January 23 with low pressure cutting across the region, based on current expectations. Should have warmed up enough for mostly rain but will keep an eye on it. Dry interlude briefly between that system and the next one expected in the January 25-26 window – will fine-tune that. Drier/chilly weather to end the period behind that system.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

A quieter, more seasonably chilly period of weather is anticipated here with maybe one minor disturbance bringing a snow shower risk.

97 thoughts on “Wednesday January 18 2023 Forecast (7:40AM)”

  1. Snow depth change map (especially on NAM) more helpful than Kuchera & certainly more helpful than 10:1 map) for next event.

  2. Good morning and thank you.

    Rock’n and Roll’n through the Drake Waves running 10-15 feet.

    Wind, 10-15 MPH

    Temp: 40-45 F

  4. Thanks, TK.

    It’s quite possible that by the end of January Boston does not record a single night in the teens this month. It’s January, folks. That’s really weird.

    And, what’s very likely is that the Charles River in Boston does not freeze over this year. That is strange, too. Even if it gets “seasonably `cold'” towards the end of the month and into February the sun angle plays an increasingly important role in limiting ice accretion. It would have to get much colder than nighttime lows in the low to mid 20s for ice to form from one side of the river to another on a large body of water like the Charles in Boston in February.

    All I can say is that this has been an exceptionally mild winter.

    1. Strong 3rd year La Niña.

      But they will go below 20 more than once before January is over.

  5. There is some intrusion of Siberian cold into Western Europe. It’s more a glancing blow than anything else. It also does not look like it will be sustained.

    1. Surely missing all cold season is that huge west coast ridge, extending northward to Alaska, that can capture a chunk of arctic air and send it south/southeastward into the central/eastern US.

      Of course, I’m not sure the western US could have taken another dry cold season and so, our loss with all the Pacific airmass has been their savior with a very wet/white cold season.

      That said, its possible we could get a pattern switch to a big western ridge which would make for some very cold episodes of weather during the second half of winter.

  6. Yes, Tom we all be thankful that the west is getting what they are getting. I’ll take a mild winter if it means they get copious amounts of rain. I know rain also causes major issues out there so it’s a double edged sword.

    Anyway thanks TK. Lots of systems and no real legit snow storm for us in mid January. Pretty remarkable!

    Enjoy Longshot, I want to do that trip. Doing Africa this summer so I can cross a continent off the list.

  7. I’m sure there are explanations for the weather we’re having. But, it’s still bizarre to observe so many consecutive nights in January – multiple stretches, too – with the temperature not even going below freezing. January 2012 was on the mild side, but it also had January weather. It even had single digit weather, This month in Boston we’re essentially not having any January weather. This feels and looks like an extension of fall or early spring.

  9. Thank you TK,
    I’m not willing to write off winter yet, just a gut feeling no science involved, I think we may be in for a nice surprise down the road. If we all can recall some of our biggest storms have come on the back 1/2 of winter, only difference is the snow doesn’t seem to stick around as long. The pattern changes every few months and we are definitely due for one.

  10. Tongulakh Russia. Low of -80.9F yesterday, new all time record cold temp for that location and the coldest temperature recorded in Russia in 40 years.

  11. Last January Boston had 3 feet of snow and a temp of 2.5F below normal for the month.

    This year vs last year is a good example of the range that can occur within the SAME La Niña.

  13. Any idea of how driving will be from this area to Stowe VT late morning Friday. Thank you for any info.

  15. No one should be writing off winter, its January 18th, there been a few times in which we were thinking it was not going to get going and then we end up around average or in extreme cases above to well above normal. I am seeing signs that the chances of more winter weather is increasing as we go through the rest of January and in Febuary generally the snowiest month in New England. My Dad always said his favorite month to go skiing is February. As I am knee keep in data anaysis and writing for my thesis very limited time to do anything else but Here is my thoughts on Thursday/Friday and first precip guests for Monday as of right now. https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1615722474104320002

    1. I literally just saw that south central posted something similar about not writing winter off, good mind’s think alike haha.

        1. As do I, but should we be saying writing winter off or writing snow off. More than likely semantics but winter is the season which has a defined beginning and end.

          Clearly I have too much time on my hands to overthink things

  16. Incidentally, the closest moon of the year is this weekend, a new moon, so we won’t get to see it.

    With that, big astronomical tides, during the daytime.

    I see an inside runner for Monday, I think ??? South coast and coastal Maine would be susceptible to daytime flooding.

    1. I wish I could “like” this a million times. That is my fear, too. Not so much the snow part, but the raw and cloudy days. Spring becomes an extension of winter.

      I know, I’m complaining a lot. I apologize.

  20. Thanks TK!

    I certainly understand the trigger-shy effect when it comes to forecasting wintry conditions in the Northeast given what we’ve seen so far this winter. However, I think a lot of folks, including here, will be surprised by how wintry the next 2-3 weeks will be… would continue to expect near/below normal temps and above normal snow for most or all of New England through the first week of next month.

    Possibly a return to a stronger Pacific influence and/or more robust Southeast ridge heading deeper into next month, but the stratosphere may have other plans…

    1. Yes, a chance of winter 😉

      The systems Thursday/Friday and Sunday/Monday are going to accomplish the first step: laying down some solid snowpack over central/northern New England. There’s a chance that the Sunday/Monday storm ends up more white than wet even for parts of SNE as well, though is still more likely to be more of a central/northern New England snow event.

      But it’s more so next week and the following week that I’d watch. The storm middle of next week looks like a prime candidate for a major New England winter storm, though ptype may still be an issue the further south you go. Beyond there, the cold will become the big story – question is whether there will be any more precip to go with it. TK is expecting a drier pattern and I lean in that direction as well, but maybe with a couple minor northern stream systems here or there. So no promises on being buried in a Buffalo-style snowpocalypse, but much more wintry than what you’ve all seen of late 🙂

      1. Thank you WxWatcher. My daughter and family travel to Stowe Friday and home Monday. Looks like lousy timing.

    1. These last couple of tornado events have unfortunately verified very well. Maybe today’s will have less activity, but they are awfully good at the SPC

    2. This is the Euro 10:1 snowmap for Friday. These numbers are likely fairly reasonable across NH and ME where the precip remains all snow but are going to be highly inaccurate across MA where there will be a mix/transition zone. Nonetheless, it shows a rather rapid drop off in snow amounts from a lot to a little over a fairly short distance. Going to be threading the needle in northern MA….

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023011812&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      1. I should add that 9-10″ in southern NH looks a bit overdone as well even if the precip remains all snow there. Might not even achieve 10:1 ratios.

  26. Thanks TK.

    Wild 12z Euro run. Following the impending storm, we have this for Sunday night/Monday with heavy snow across the not too distant interior:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023011812&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    And then this for Wed night/Thursday with a snowstorm for pretty much everybody:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023011812&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    More potential beyond that.

    Hopeful signs that our New England snow drought is about to end,

  27. The Sunday Monday night storm system on the EURO has to go a little more offshore to get more interior areas of SNE to get snow. Plenty of time for that to shift.

    1. This, I believe, is currently the deepest snowpack anywhere on the planet. This rivals some of the deeper snowpacks you will see in the Cascades and Japan but even those locations have not seen nearly the amount of snow the Sierras have this season.

      2. As the East has been pretty persistently mild and relatively snowless, the West has been persistently hammered, cold & snowy.

        Stable pattern – nothing new there. Classic La Nina (again).

  30. You guys are all so excited about the storms next week.
    Perhaps for CNE and NNE, but here in the NO SNOW ZONE,
    doesn’t look so good to me. Yes, Plenty of time for change.
    We shall see.

    1. They need it badly up there so excited to see the prospects of a building snowpack in NNE. I will be up in Maine this weekend and NH next weekend which is perhaps skewing my excitement more than normal. Anything SNE can get out of these systems will be an added bonus 🙂

      I’d favor interior areas for the next two systems but think we all have a shot for a mostly snow event from the midweek storm.

  31. 12z GFS run total Kuchera snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011812&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12z CMC run total Kuchera snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011812&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro, CMC, and GFS all consistent showing 2-3 feet of new snow in NNE and significant accumulations across interior SNE. GFS and CMC not as bullish as the Euro on snow in the coastal plain. For now…

    1. Yup, confirms what I was saying above.
      Great that NNE will benefit. About time as they really could use it.

  32. Yes, NNE needs snow and will get snow. This is very good.

    However, I have strong doubts about coastal SNE getting in on any of the snow action any time soon. And, I’m skeptical about sustained cold entering the picture by the end of the month.

    Sad news to report on Chris Ford. He died at the young age of 74. Ford made the NBA’s first 3-point shot.

  34. The next 3 formidable systems will likely have rain/snow lines in New England. This is a slow process heading back toward a pattern that supports more snow further south.

    What we are witnessing this winter is classic La Nina, and while we have a VERY limited sample size, the idea of a mild 3rd winter on a triple dip La Nina certainly has played out …. SO FAR.

    Don’t forget an important fact or two. Looking ahead on models is ok but it doesn’t give you a promise of much of anything. It gives you an idea of what may be. We do not reach the mid point of winter weather’s average until about February 2 through 6. And I don’t buy the argument like “well by then winter’s over”. No, it’s not over until it’s OVER over. Not when someone decides it’s over. 🙂 Some of our biggest snowstorms have occurred after the end of February. Fact. Can’t argue facts. 🙂

    Do I think we’re heading for a gangbuster 2nd half of winter? No, because I agree with WxW’s assessment of a limited window before we may go back to a milder regime that might possibly limit the chances – UNLESS, as he said, the PV has something to say about it. There are a lot of puzzle pieces regarding the back half of winter. We all saw how my expectations (and some other’s expectations) were undermined by the negative factors during the first half so far. There is just too much chaos and variability in weather prediction to be so sure that A+B=C. It might very well equal D, E, F, or any other letter in the alphabet. As a meteorologist, ALL information must be taken into account and an open mind must be kept. That is how this science works best. 🙂

    1. Every time I see the word “robust” I don’t think of snow, I think of coffee……………

  36. Still going thru the Drake. We are one-third thru the Passage. The captain is threading the needle between a couple of lows, one of which is fairly intense.

    Skipping the South Shetlands because the weather is too rough. We wouldn’t be able to land even on Zodiac boats. Maybe on the way back.

  38. You would think Boston / south is having a big snowstorm Friday my god !! Rain with some backend snow that will amount to not much at all !!!

      2. No just different things on the radio & tv I’m hearing . North will get snow , here very little if any.

        1. The TV folks I saw seemed to have it in the right perspective, at least the meteorologists. Consistent forecasts, less to the south, more to the north. We’re all kind of in the same ballpark. I didn’t pay much attention to the anchors but I’m sure there was a bit of hype, as usual.

        1. Yes we are heading up to Sunday River ME Friday afternoon. Very excited to see the models spitting out up to 10” up there by Friday night. Might finally be some good conditions this weekend! All we have been skiing on this year so far is ice.

          1. My brother is hearing the same from friends. Some areas are requiring folks to purchase tickets and reserve ahead of time.

            I hope for a great ski weekend for you and safe travels.

            1. Thanks Vicki. Yes, Loon is requiring reservations this year. We will be up in NH the following weekend and have reservations there on Sunday the 29th. With any luck, if these storms materialize, will be 100% open by then.

              2. I should add that we have an IKON pass and they require a reservation for pass holders. For the general public, you are correct that tickets need to be purchased online in advance. Not sure what other resorts are doing the same. We didn’t have to do this for Sunday River.

  41. Bruins only have 2 home games for the next month.
    No worries – they’re a great road team too. Showing that tonight on Long Island. 🙂

        1. Well that’s one game where I will certainly be rooting for the Bruins!

          Islanders are in a terrible slide to start 2023. They need to get out of it in a hurry or they will be in trouble and not able to dig out.

  42. Despite TK’s numerous cautions that both 10:1 and Kuchera maps are not to be used, people keep posting those, and not Snow Depth Change map, which is almost certainly more reflective of what we’ll see. Funny, that doesn’t snow anywhere remotely close to what the 10:1 and Kuchera maps show, even for the entirety of the 00z GFS, so I’m pretty sure that’s why people have been ignoring it.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023011900&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

    1. We do listen to TK and yourself. Your both great !!

      But, we’re not meteorologists, we are weather enthusiasts. 🙂

      I think or I would hope its ok to post all the snow maps. 🙂 🙂 🙂 :), even if the accurate and excellent feedback the mets on here are giving us is that the one map that will be most likely to verify is the snow depth change map.

      Just my opinion. 🙂 🙂 🙂

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