Thursday January 19 2023 Forecast (7:32AM)

98 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)

An active weather pattern continues and we’ll be dealing with two storms during the next 5 days. The first one heads into our region today and lingers through Friday. It takes place as low pressure heading into the eastern Great Lakes redevelops off the northern Mid Atlantic Coast, just south of New England, and heads eastward. With a little more cold air around than in some of our recent events, we have a rain/snow line to deal with. Precipitation arrives toward dusk for areas to the west and near or just after dusk further east, mainly as rain but some mix/snow near and north of the MA/NH border, where it will remain steady state for the first few hours, before the rain/snow line begins a trek to the south during the late evening and overnight hours. The first batch of precipitation will taper off during the overnight, but not before a burst of moderate to heavy snow brings some accumulation to southern NH and a good portion of northern MA. After the surface storm departs, we still have the upper level low to go through the region on Friday from west to east, as the colder air continues to push southward, so this time the rain/snow line will continue further south and across the MA South Shore and the South Coast regions. The precipitation with the Friday portion of the system will not be as heavy, but it will be enough to add to the snow already on the ground to the north, and introduce some accumulation heading further south as well. When this system is done by later Friday evening, ending as snow showers, I expect that a solid 3-6 inches will have fallen across southern NH and northern MA, mainly north of the Route 2 / I-95 belt, with even a few 6+ amounts in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. We get a break Saturday between systems, a fair weather day with a narrow area of high pressure, and then the next system approaches during Sunday. There are still some questions with this one, but current indications are that the track of low pressure will cut more across our region, allowing enough warming so that more rain than snow will be involved, although we’d have to watch for snow at the start and possibly the end, especially for northern and western portions of the area. Of course, fine-tuning will be done for this event during the next few days with a solid final call by Sunday’s blog post. This system lingers into Monday before we see improvement arriving, but the departure of that system may come with quite a bit of wind as well.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Rain arriving west to east afternoon, except possible sleet and snow interior northern MA and southern NH. Highs 38-45 but may turn cooler late-day. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Sleet/snow southern NH and northern MA, rain to the south, slowly transitioning to mix/snow into the Route 2 / I-95 region of northern and northeastern MA while remaining mostly rain to the south, tapering off overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periodic snow, except rain/mix turning to snow southern areas. Temperatures steady 30-37. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain and some inland northern area mix/snow possible by late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NE to E and increasing to 10-20 MPH by late-day and evening.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely except rain/mix/snow possible southern NH and interior northern MA. Lows 32-39. Wind E to SE 10-20 MPH, possibly stronger in coastal areas.

MONDAY: Overcast with rain to start, tapering off to showers then ending. Breaking clouds follow. Highs 40-47. Wind SE to SW 15-25 MPH, shifting to W with higher gusts especially later in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)

Next storm potential around January 25 can produce a variety of precipitation, but may end up being a colder storm than the previous one. Quieter period of weather begins after that one but probably a bit colder than we’ve been.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Quiet weather for the early to middle portion of the period, and more seasonably chilly as well. Watching a storm threat for later in the period.

98 thoughts on “Thursday January 19 2023 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  4. After the 18Z HRRR yesterday, I thought our system for tonight
    was trending colder with more frozen precip, but after the 0z run and the 6z run, not so much.
    What else would we expect?
    So, whatever snow we get, it will be tomorrow and I sure don’t expect much, an inch give or take? Something like that.

  7. Thanks TK. Looks like a more eastern event for our northern states. As much as I’d like to see snow in all ski areas I selfishly hope to see lesser amounts in VT. Sunday/Monday also as they return then.

  9. I just don’t see any real cold here for the foreseeable future. If you look at the maps you do see cold air to our north, but for meaningful winter cold, it’s too far up there. The Arctic highs remain more than 500 miles too far north to be conducive to snow in much of SNE, even if lows track better than have been. This also applies next week, by the way.

    We’ll have glop at times, but really no meaningful snow. That’s my humble opinion.

    This said, for NNE there will be ample chances for snow. I’m happy for the ski areas.

    1. I agree. I am not seeing it/feeling it. I am hopeful for a change, but when you’re in a rut, you’re in a rut. 🙂

  10. Model snow maps for this event…

    10:1 .. useless
    Kuchera .. of little worth
    Snow depth change .. best

    Keep this in mind.

  11. Sky was fire red this am. I wasn’t awake to see but youngest sent me some pics. I thought of you, Philip…….red in the morning….

  14. Thanks TK.

    0z Euro FWIW was a bit weaker and more off shore for the early week system but rain/snow line was still inland:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023011900&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Midweek system was stronger and a bit colder with an up front thump of snow in SNE:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023011900&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    But still ultimately a changeover:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023011900&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  16. Regarding snow depth change maps, I get it that these can be closer to reality for a short term system. But looking at those in a 384 hour forecast is not going to give you an accurate representation of how much snow actually accumulated after a series of storms.

    The GFS last night had up to 50″ of snow in the mountains at hour 384 after a series of storms but less the 18″ positive snow depth change in these same areas as SAK posted. Could the snow depth be melted/compacted/sublimated to that by the end of the period? I suppose, but total snow accumulation during the period and instantaneous snow depths after each storm would be much higher.

    I would think it depends on the situation which map makes sense to look at with the understanding that none of these snow maps are ever going to be 100% accurate.

    1. This is a very good assessment. For a system like what’s affecting New England the next 36 hours, sure, snow depth change is the way to go. But there are cases where it can be just as misleading, in the opposite direction, as a 10:1 map. And keep in mind snow depth and snowfall don’t have a 1:1 relationship. If you measure 10” of new snow on your snow board 2 days in a row, that’s 20” of snow, even if the depth of an undisturbed area has compacted to 15”.

    2. Right.
      But I’m referring to this coming system.

      No matter what scale you look at outside 4 days, it’s not worth much.

  17. Systems appear to still want to track West of us.
    Not good for SNE. Secondary coastals develop to late and too far North for SNE.

    I do not like the set ups for any of these.

    NNE looks to do OK, but for snow starved SNE, we are S*** out of luck, imho.

  18. Thanks TK.

    Joshua mentioned LA’s temperature this morning. My office, closer to Riverside, was at 34. For as warm as the East has been, California has been the total opposite. In addition to many nights in the 30s and low 40s, we also haven’t had any days in the 70s this month, and rarely warmer than the mid 60s. That’s very unusual, and even though we’re finally drying out, it doesn’t look like we’ll warm up too much. December was similarly cool. So as usual, there is some level of atmospheric balance at work 🙂

  21. Precip just started here in Sharon as sleet pellets. Currently 38 degrees. Must be a lot of cold air aloft?

        1. Thank you. That is what I was going with. So we started with graupel and now have sleet with a touch of graupel mixed in

    2. Thank you,

      I hardly think Boston gets 1-3. those 1-2 and 1-3 for Boston seem a tad high from what I can tell. 🙂

          1. You know, when us mets tell you that there are issues with the guidance, we’re not kidding. We know our stuff (not that you didn’t already know that haha), and now you see it firsthand. 🙂

  25. All rain here. Glad I did my outdoor run between teleconferences and before the cold rain. I can run in snow. I can run in warm rain. I cannot run in cold rain. Well, I shouldn’t say “cannot.” More like, it’s the most difficult weather condition to handle besides intense heat and humidity.

  27. Believe it or not, we’ve actually accumulated some ice pellets and it’s still mostly ice pellets that are falling.

    1. Just a way of describing it. I don’t use spring references myself when the sun angle is still low. That makes a big difference for me. But weather-wise, this pattern can be something we see in March too, or at any other time during winter. If anything, it’s more like November – similar sun angle and temps.

    2. His forecast was great. He took the time to explain parts of what we are seeing.. Taken as part of a whole, I understand his reference. Brought back some memories.

  34. CSN / CSNY were always favorites of mine.

    “Our House” was a favorite song of mine when it was new – very early strong correlation from a song that stayed with me.

    “Southern Cross” was an 80s fave. Other favorites included “Wooden Ships”, “Teach Your Children”, “Wasted On The Way”, and “Just A Song Before I Go”.

    “Suite: Judy Blue Eyes” is a special song for me. I once watched a quartet (3 guitarists & my brother on bass) play a set of songs at Woburn Public Library (early 1980s), and this was among them. They did a wonderful job. Besides my brother, it was headed by his long-time friend Robert (Bob) who teaches classical guitar and is also a great rock guitarist, having been in several bands, including Beatle Juice (the Beatles tribute band that included my brother friend Muzz on drums and Boston’s lead singer, Brad Delp, on vocals, before his passing). The other 2 members of the quartet in the library show were 2 students of Bob’s. It was a wonderful evening I will never forget.

    I enjoyed listening to David Crosby’s vocals. He provides a great co-lead / backing vocal on some of Phil Collins tunes, including a song called “That’s The Way It Is” that came out in the early 1990s.

  35. Nearly an 8 inch difference in some locations in snowfall between the “snow depth change” map that I suggested using and the 10:1 map which everybody knows this won’t be, and even up to 6 inches difference between the former and the Kuchera. It’s all about knowing HOW to use the tools.

    Saw a post from a FB “fake-met” earlier saying how his forecast from yesterday, which was taken pretty much directly from the 10:1 GFS map, didn’t need to be changed. Oh yes, it most certainly did. That’s not gonna verify well!

    On a non-weather note, I have a migraine headache. YAY!

    On a sports-related note, GO BRUINS!

    I had a dream last night that I was basically starring in a horror movie, as the victim, except it wasn’t really a movie…. oh boy!

    I had another dream that I forecast the biggest snowstorm of the winter to occur on February 2 & 3. The 2-2-23/2-3-23 storm. That will be my name for it. Forget TWC and their names. Mine’s better, and it’s a tongue twister! 😉

    Have a great night everyone! I am going to go conquer this headache. 🙂

      1. Mine are often triggered by sinus issues which are often triggered by weather. I’m pretty certain that’s the case here.

        1. Mine by pressure changes and also sinus. My youngest has had them from
          A very young age. Mac had them also.

  36. Raining in Amesbury. Definitely not throwing in the towel, because its still too early, but this could shape up to be one of those winters that wasn’t.

  38. FWIW, the CFS model (from 12z today) paints Wednesday’s threat next week as a South Shore & South Coast Special, and a miss elsewhere. 😉 And after a little break it starts pounding the Northeast with winter storm after winter storm. 😉

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