Saturday January 21 2023 Forecast (8:04AM)

74 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)

A fair weather interlude is ours today, though the day starts with lots of clouds before we finally break into some sun. But as you have been hearing, we’re in an active weather pattern and the next low pressure system is heading out way. While we end up cloudy on Sunday, most of the next system’s precipitation holds off until after daylight, and the track of the next system will allow warmer air to win out again, so while we’re looking at some areas starting as frozen precipitation, it ends up as largely a rain event, but with cold air not that far away to the north and west, we may see the precipitation end as a brief period of snow or snow showers on Monday. Behind that system comes more wind, and the arrival of colder air, reinforced even more with the passage of a secondary cold front on Tuesday. This sets up a snowier potential start to the next storm system, due in here later Wednesday, but while not a certain forecast, that one probably won’t end up staying as all snow either. More on that system next update.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 32-39. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, may start as snow/sleet southern NH and interior MA especially north of I-90. Lows 28-35 early, then rising slowly. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, becoming variable to N overnight.

MONDAY: Overcast with rain morning, possibly ending as snow or snow showers from west to east by midday. Clouds break for partial sun afternoon. Highs 37-44. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially later in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Snow/mix/rain at night. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)

A lot of inconsistency and non-agreement in various medium range guidance (what else is new?). Overall less stormy in general, but still have to keep an eye on things for at least 1, possibly 2 disturbances. Temperatures a little closer to seasonal levels, but still no major cold expected.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Pattern trends colder. Watching a system for around February 2-3 with winter storm potential.

74 thoughts on “Saturday January 21 2023 Forecast (8:04AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    Could Boston finally get its first significant snow of the season come Wednesday? At least a few inches anyway before a changeover?

    1. Yes, should start around kick-off, perhaps as much as 1 inch before game’s end. Nothing too wild.

  4. If anyone has had trouble reaching this site, especially via the FB page, the problem should be fixed. Let me know if you have any further issues. 🙂

    1. Seems as if you and I waited to wake up fully to look outside. We have a costing also. It looks lovely on the trees.

    1. Thank you very much. 🙂 Passing along the wish momentarily!

      We’ll be having a small gathering here this afternoon – brothers, sis-in-law, and a bit of pizza & bday cake.

      Last evening we had a zoom call with relatives in CT (other brother and SIL) & Singapore (nephew & family). In Singapore it was already the 21st. 😉

  13. Thank you, TK.

    I’m throwing in the towel for this winter. Not saying it won’t get seasonable from time to time, or that we won’t periodically get an inch or so of snow. But no sustained period of cold – stretches of consecutive days in the 20s/low 30s – and very little snow.

    A forgettable winter.

    Hopefully my reverse psychology works and we get gigantic winter storms and sustained cold.

  16. The 2nd storm in the line, the one for mid next week, could be problematic for portions of the southern MS Valley and southeast for severe weather. (Tornadoes, etc)

      1. For sensible, daily weather, no.

        For bigger picture showing the effects of a pattern change, less active west coast, and a transition to a colder US, yes.

          1. Agreed.

            I’ll admit, I’m game for a snowfall where it’s in the teens inland and 20s at the coast. Not this borderline, elevation, precip intensity dependent stuff. A nice 4-8, 5-10 and some cold afterward to keep it on the ground for a few days to a week.

            1. Every day that passes now sees that sun angle climbing higher, and when we do get snowfalls, there is less and less time for melt/refreeze and it to hang around for long periods of time. Our best long-duration snowcovers come when we get a decent snow pack by early January.

  18. I know the GFS is still broken, but the ensembles are somewhat useful. Theory: Some of the sets when the initial conditions are tweaked are performing better and this skews the mean to better than the op, which would be the case anyway most of the time. Just shows you that this method is pretty dependable in the large picture. That said, I’d trust the current version’s mean a little bit less than the old version’s mean. But not as much as I’d trust the current version’s op less than the old version’s op. Sorry if this got confusing. I had to read it 3 times myself. 😉

  19. I have a distinctive feeling that my anticipation of increasing sun is going to turn out to have been too optimistic a forecast for today. About 2 times a year, I get burned by relentless stratocumulus. This may be #1. haha!

    Mother Nature, you have 4 hours left. Help me out here!

  20. “A​ winter storm brought snow to parts of New England and the interior Northeast Friday after hitting the West, Plains and Midwest earlier in the week. The storm is named Winter Storm Iggy by The Weather Channel.”

    That makes sense. to me Not necessarily pretty, lots of energy, and no shirt.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIJTyryvr5E

  22. Another gloomy day. Pretty much our winter 2022-23 in a nutshell. Sigh. 🙁

    I would say many SNE stations will NOT see average snowfall this winter, Worcester (73.0”) for starters. No way they get 61” between now and say, April.

    As for Boston (49.2”) I would say at this stage “50/50” at best. I don’t see the cold, snowy pattern with anywhere near the same consistency as this mild, wet, blah one.

    I am still expecting Boston to edge Worcester in consecutive winters for seasonal snowfall. Just because it’s never happened doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Famous last words. 😉

    1. It’s a good day to watch both Top Gun movies. And then some football. I love That you are not giving up on Boston for the win

    2. It’s far more likely that Worcester reaches normal snowfall for the winter than it is that they come in below Boston’s snowfall total. Just saying. 🙂

  23. Very short-lived `cold’ stretch in the Netherlands. By Monday/Tuesday they’ll be back to the usual light rain, mid to upper 40s, winds out of the southwest. As I mentioned last week, forecasters there believed the Siberian cold wouldn’t really deliver across most of Europe. Even in Ukraine temps remain relatively elevated. Forecasters in the Netherlands are very doubtful any sustained cold will materialize in the low countries in the next 2 to 4 weeks. And by then, winter will be on the back 9 (and closer to spring there than here; Northwestern Europe tends to have a much earlier spring).

  24. Today is definitely more like November gloom. Now I think I can understand TK’s side as opposed to Eric’s “March”.

    It’s certainly “November” in terms of sky cover.

    An awful raw day, even with no precipitation.

  25. About an hour ago, some stray flurries on my way back home from grocery shopping. I think that we can almost count the number of snow flakes that have fallen thus far this year in Boston.

  26. It truly speaks to the lack of cold air available to the sun night system.

    All 3 (18z) models, NAM, 3km NAM and GFS track the low near or just SE of Nantucket and project mostly rain near and southeast of I495.

  28. Ok, so maybe behind the low Sunday night is a hanging back piece of energy that could reignite some wet snow in Boston and rain to wet snow in southeast mass. But temps look marginal.

    1. It won’t accumulate on anything, just like the last event. Flakes will fall, but that will be all. 😉

          1. This morning Ch. 4 upped their amounts to 1-3” for Boston. Yesterday the city didn’t have any amounts of snow at all.

            1. Forecasts change sometimes. This is why we update. 🙂

              Example: When I walked into work and the person wanted to know where their 60s were when I had been foreasting 40s for a few days. I said “Where did you hear 60s?” and they said “on TV last weekend”. …………..It was Thursday.

  29. 22 JANUARY 2023 -Historic day in China

    -53.0C Jintao AWS,Amur Town, Mohe City, Daxinganling District,Heilongjiang Province
    Lowest temperature in Chinese History

    -50.8C Mohe Lowest in China since 1969 in a 1st degree national station

    All time lows:
    -50.3C Beijcun
    -48.3C Xinlin

    Other low temps:
    Mohe-50.8
    Beijicun-50.3 (new record、First – 50C)
    Tulih-49.1
    Huzhong- 48.9
    Xinlin-48.3 (new record)
    Huma-47.6
    Tahe-47.1
    Genhe-45.6

    Jingtao-53.0
    Qianshao-51.4
    Mengwushiwei-51.1
    Shangkuli-50.9
    Moerdaoga-50.7
    Xinan-50.6

    NOTE: ALL TEMPS ARE IN CELCIUS.

  30. Follow up to the web page “non-secure” issue: A couple SSL’s were outdated. Techie updated. Problem solved. Secure.

      1. I’m not sure what he used but the message translated to me was that a couple were outdated and updated. 🙂

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