Sunday January 22 2023 Forecast (8:53AM)

108 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)

As stated previously, I mentioned that for areas I thought may have measurable frozen precipitation that a final call would appear on Sunday morning’s blog post, and that will follow just below. I’ve made a slight adjustment southeastward on the forecast storm track, expecting the low center to pass over the outer portion of Cape Cod or the Islands Monday. The center will also be elongated, and a little westward extension of low pressure as it moves away will allow the precipitation to hang on a little longer, allowing colder air in with enough time for a swath of snow across much of the region, after a mainly rain event for a good portion of it from tonight into early Monday. But enough snow will fall for the need of some removal activity especially northwest of a Boston-Providence line. After that system moves out, we get a dry interlude for Tuesday before the next system heads in for Wednesday into part of Thursday. This system continues to present as a snow to rain event for the region, with snow hanging on longest the further west and north of Boston you go. Details on this system will be worked out over the next couple days.

TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy afternoon drizzle / snow grains. Highs 35-42. Wind variable becoming SE to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Precipitation arrives quickly from southwest to northeast as snow in southwestern NH and north central MA where it transitions to a mix of snow/sleet/rain overnight, a brief period of snow and/or sleet inside I-495 before going to rain, and just rain elsewhere. Lows 32-39. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts along the coast overnight.

MONDAY: Overcast. Steadiest rain early morning but may still be mixed with sleet and snow in southwestern NH and north central MA, then tapering to occasional rain/drizzle except some snow/sleet mix potential continuing in aforementioned areas to the northwest, then precipitation becoming steady again west northwest to east southeast midday on, mainly as snow, but starting as rain/mix before transitioning to snow further south. Expected snowfall accumulation: 4-8 inches interior southern NH and north central MA with isolated amounts of greater than 8 inches possible in the highest elevations, 2-4 inches NH Seacoast down I-495 belt to I-90 region, 1/2 to 2 inches I-95 corridor, under 1/2 inch southeast of I-95 to little or nothing along the South Coast. Highs 33-40 except over 40 South Coast. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, strongest near the coast where higher gusts are possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Evening snow showers possible especially eastern and southern areas, otherwise breaking clouds. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Snow inland / mix coast by late in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow/mix transitioning to mix/rain. Temperatures steady or rising slightly. Wind E-SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Overcast with rain likely in the morning, possible mix far northwestern areas. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)

Trend to more seasonable cold. Watching for a disturbance with minor precipitation event – probably just a frontal passage – during the first part of the period and eyeing a more formidable low pressure impact potential around January 30, but the latter event is highly uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Pattern trends colder. Watching a system for around February 2-3 with winter storm potential.

108 thoughts on “Sunday January 22 2023 Forecast (8:53AM)”

      1. Thanks Dr. S.

        The NBC-10 map is definitely the most robust for Boston at 2-4”. Will see tomorrow if that verifies.

    2. I’ll take NWS for $500 Alex.
      Actually most of those are good. I think 7’s may be old though.
      NBC maybe too high for Boston. Don’t think it snows there long enough for 2-4 inches.

  8. To amplify TK’s coverage of the cold across parts of China: https://twitter.com/Ventuskycom/status/1617077136078131206/photo/1

    It’s been a mostly snowless winter across much of Europe. But this has changed – thankfully for the ski areas – as a wide swath of snow has fallen across Central Europe for the first time in a month. https://twitter.com/Ventuskycom/status/1616448444435922944/photo/1

    Greenland and Iceland have experienced a harsh winter. Last week, several weather stations in Greenland reported temperatures of -59F and -65F, respectively, and wind chills of -100F.

    1. This winter pattern (so far) is a case of the haves and have-nots.

      Sibera / China .. Harsh.
      Much of Europe .. Warm.

      Greenland / Iceland .. Harsh.

      Eastern US .. Mild, lacking in snow.
      Western US .. Harsh, in some places the most snow and coldest in many years.

      This is a stable 3rd year La Nina. We haven’t had much experience with that particular puzzle piece, so there will be some things to learn from that. Science of meteorology at work!

  11. Quick look at 12z NAM. 100% no on the 10:1 maps, but we knew that. Kuchera are too high, mostly. Snow depth change is low for northwestern areas, accurate for the BOS-PVD corridor, so kind of a cross beween Kuchera & snow depth change if you wanna use the NAM for a reasonable snowfall forecast. Otherwise, I have reasonable confidence in my #’s which are similar to NWS’s. No changed based on what I see now. I won’t really pay attention to GFS or ECMWF snow for this event now – just short range.

    Going for a nice winter walk, then back home to continue putting things back together. 🙂

  12. Good morning and thank you TK

    Any explanations for why snow hangs back.
    Is it due to the upper air flow? I am having trouble understanding why?

    Many thanks

    1. The elongation of the low center I referred to results in a pseudo commahead set-up, where the back side of that elongated is the western edge of somewhat rapidly strengthening low pressure. This will enhance lift and resultant precipitation behind the low for a little longer and with a little more coverage than you may see in many situations.

        1. That question is hopefully accurately answered in my forecast above, but Boston is not going to get a big snowstorm of this. Wrong set-up.

  17. Just curious how much rain is likely in the Natick area before a switch to snow. I take it from your comments and other estimates that you are happy with ballpark 2 inches snow here? Unfortunately have a few medical appointments in the PM. Thanks.

  19. Jacob W. was a guest last night on WBZ radio’s “The Morgan Show” (Morgan White Jr./host) and Jacob was not very optimistic for snow in February, let alone the rest of this month.

    Jacob certainly didn’t say categorically that Boston wouldn’t see significant snow but he did hint that he’s not seeing any potential for next month right now. He strongly emphasized “La Niña” continuing.

    2. The pattern change is already underway. We said it would not happen all at once.

      I remain quite interested in the pattern for the first half of February.

  21. Thanks TK! As usual in good agreement with your thoughts overall. Gradual but well anticipated transition to a colder and likely snowier pattern continues. Better confidence on my end that we’re entering an overall multi-week pattern of near to below normal temps and above normal snow in SNE. Not that every day will be bitterly cold and/or snowing of course 🙂

    Snow game in Buffalo!

    2. I guarantee you if we got a 2-day warm-up in that period somebody would say “what happened to the cold & snow”? 😉

      Yes it will be fun to follow this. Did I ever blow the short range forecast though for the cloud cover yesterday and last night. Last night I forecast clear and teens, and it was cloudy and 20s. 😉 Oops!

  22. Well that was a nice opening drive for the Bengals.
    These are my 2 faves of the teams left.
    The winner of this game is my choice to win it all.

    1. Low level moisture – basically “winter drizzle”. If it’s frozen, you can call it “snizzle” again. 🙂

      1. Ha thanks. I need to drive early tomorrow am and would like bad driving snow to hold off till late morning

  26. Very light festive snowflakes here now. A little too large to be termed “snizzle”. They are small flakes, but they are definitely flakey flakes. 🙂

    1. That’s an impressive batch of un-forecast low level moisture. It’s nearly wrung out, but a little more may generate.

  29. Temps 32-39 in the snow area – the festive flakes are dusting the existing snowcover and coldest surfaces but melting on most other surfaces, at least for now. Those surfaces may dust over a bit as we get dark, but at that time the initial batch will be winding down anyway, so this will not change the snowfall forecast anywhere.

  31. Thanks TK for your thoughts on Jacob’s interview from last night. The host, Morgan White absolutely HATES snow even though he grew up in Boston but I don’t believe in any way that was Jacob trying to pander to the radio host or anything.

    Any thoughts as to why Jacob just wasn’t feeling it in the same way like you and WxW have discussed here?

      1. Wow! That’s not like you to be totally perplexed. I don’t suppose anyone else here at WHW tuned in? It’s really a trivia show on Saturday nights 10-12 midnight and MW has tv mets as guests fairly often, like Mark Rosenthal as well. Back in the day it was Barry and Don Kent. Thanks anyway TK. 🙂

        1. Well not having seen or heard it, I’m not sure what his exact thoughts were. And whether I agree with his assessment or not, it’s still his assessment. I just don’t know what it was. 🙂

          I’m a fan of J.W. whether we agree or not. 🙂

          2. It’s too bad no one else here heard the broadcast to give their interpretation. I’m a regular listener of the show but I had no idea Jacob (or any other met) was going to be on as a guest to discuss weather. Unfortunately, “The Morgan Show” is only on once a week every Saturday night for only 2 hours.

            Of course as you know, I’m just not into any of today’s young tv mets. Nothing personal against any of them. 😉

            1. Prior to the pandemic, “The Morgan Show” was on WBZ radio 5 nights per week plus Saturday overnights. Too bad the guest wasn’t Mark Rosenthal instead as I would’ve been interested if his perspective matched yours. I bet it would have. Oh well. 🙂

              Covid-19 really hit many local radio talk shows hard as management had to make tough decisions. His show was certainly one of them. 🙁

  32. The latest NAM is a little colder.
    The latest HRRR is a little warmer.

    Those models offset.
    The result: no change.

    🙂

      1. Oops. TK….not sure why I thought I saw Tom. Could be my hands are over my eyes as I watch a lot of this game.

        Sorry about that

  33. NWS has extended WWA to Boston and points a bit further south. Snowfall increased a bit as well at 2-3”.

  37. Other than the Chiefs Jags game, the divisional playoff games have been duds. Hopefully the Cowboys Niners game is good.

    2. Lots of hills and buses have to get kids home. Lots of working parents who have to make plans for their kids

  39. Thanks, TK…

    Crazy weekend after a crazy week. Don’t like to grade papers at home, especially the weekend, but the semester ends Thursday and spent the weekend correcting and computing grades.
    It will be Day 90, halfway through the school year, at the end of exams on Thursday. I suspect, Tom, you are at or just past 90.

    TK, I raised a glass in celebration of your Mom’s brithday last night!!! I hope she, you and y’all’s family had a great and happy day yesterday and all are enjoying good health! 🙂

  40. Given the rain off and on this week as well as a few days forecast to be in the 40s, do you think all the snow around Boston and surrounding cities will be gone by next weekend? Thanks.

    1. Depends on where you are. The city will have little or nothing on the ground most of the week. Once you get into the NW ‘burbs there will be some, and it builds up N & W from there.

  41. Each run of the HRRR pushes the R/S line a tiny bit further NW and delays the return of the snow to eastern MA a tiny bit more.

    Waiting to see what NAM thinks with it’s 00z meal.

  43. I am thinking one a San Jose’s high school hockey team would have done better than their professional hockey team against the Bruins tonight…..

  46. Dak Prescott is about as inconsistent a QB as exists in the NFL. Sure, the 49ers have good defense. But, Dak was awful. I mean atrociously bad. Even many of the completions weren’t good passes. And, he could have easily been picked off 5 times in the game.

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