Thursday January 26 2023 Forecast (7:35AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)

A swath of dry air ate up some of the early portion of yesterday’s precipitation event, cutting out a fair amount of what was already expected to be a fairly light snowfall. A healthy swath of moderate to heavy rain moved through the region overnight, along with milder temperatures, eating away at the already feeble snow pack in most of the region and keeping the ground bare where there isn’t any snow on the ground right now. Any more snow chances upcoming? Yes, eventually, but not anything significant in the immediate future – as in the next several days. Today, we’re mild initially as we say goodbye to the rain, exiting the eastern coastal areas early this morning. The balance of the day is dry, with lots of clouds, some sun, maybe a few pop up showers, a mild start, and a cooler finish on a gusty westerly breeze. Colder air arrives tonight and it will be modestly chilly on Friday as high pressure noses into the region. We may see more sun Friday than we have many days this month, one of, if not the, cloudiest month on record to date (will re-acquire updated sunshine data soon). No changes for the weekend outlook and heading into early next week. Expecting a cold front to swing through on Saturday with no more than a passing rain or snow shower, then the front comes back as a warm front Sunday ahead of a weaker area of low pressure to pass by to our north, bringing the front back through once again as a cold front early on Monday. The passages of that frontal pair brings more clouds than anything, but some light precipitation, favoring rain, may occur Sunday night and early Monday, based on current expected timing. A follow up wave of low pressure should remain to the south as it passes by later Monday.

TODAY: Cloudy start with rain showers in eastern coastal areas ending. Clouds break for sun at times thereafter but still the chance of a few pop-up showers of rain or mixed precipitation. Highs 40-47 except 48-55 South Coast / Cape Cod, occurring this morning, before slowly falling afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming SW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow/mix/rain shower. through midday. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to NW, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early becoming variable, then S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of light rain/mix south and east, light mix/snow north and west. Lows 31-38. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Limited sun. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

While the overall pattern trends colder and has 1 or 2 opportunities for precipitation, favoring mix/frozen, the timing is a little up in the air. Windows of opportunity exist later January 31 to early February 1, February 2 into February 3, and again at the end of the period. Will bring things into better focus with time.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Overall pattern looks a little colder with another storm threat at mid period.

47 thoughts on “Thursday January 26 2023 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  3. Thanks TK.

    Worcester 17.2”, Boston 7.6”

    Thanks TK for correcting me that in fact Worcester did receive snow yesterday (0.3”). A tv news reporter live on air insisted that Worcester did NOT receive any. That’s what I get for taking the word of tv news staff for weather stats. I should have checked for myself later.

    Hopefully Boston can play “catch-up” next month, or at least make it look a better contest for the season. 🙂

    1. Never get weather info from a “TV reporter”. 😉
      Time and time again it’s incorrect. 😀

  5. Thanks TK.

    Temp hit 53 overnight with the heavy rain and our snow pack has been incinerated. Sitting just shy of 7” of rain/melted snow on the month of January.

  8. Thanks TK. Any sign of the transition to a drier pattern then we have had this month. My sump pump starting running today and hadn’t in quite some time!

    These 1-2 inch rain events every few days have gotten us to this point with some rivers rising into minor flood stage too.

      1. Looks like a potential recipe for more of the same. Storm track near or over us with snow/mix to rain events.

  10. Thank you, TK.

    I echo North’s concerns. I live somewhat submerged – euphemistically they call it “garden level” – and all this water is a bit concerning.

    It’s beginning to look a bit like July 2021.

  17. Thanks TK.

    Like you, I remain more bullish than most on winter weather prospects over the Northeast for at least the first half of February. Colder weather overall and multiple opportunities for wintry precipitation. But it’s definitely a complex pattern so deterministic details are probably gonna remain murky more than 3 or so days out.

    One thing I don’t see a whole lot of, and I know some here are wondering, is dry weather. February should be drier overall than January. But I could see SNE remaining in that “battle zone” well into the spring, and eventually there’s likely to be a renewed boost of tropical forcing (MJO), which may coincide with what is typically one if the wettest times of the year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see hydrology/flooding be a frequent topic of discussion this spring, especially if some solid snow cover is laid down over the next few weeks.

    1. Thanks WxW! At least a repeat of last summer’s drought is highly unlikely. No more monitor maps with those “burnt” colors for awhile.

    2. Thanks, WxWatcher. Always enjoy reading your perspective.

      What’s interesting about the cold air that is poised to make an incursion into the Lower 48 is the resemblance to the one in late December. Most if not all of the bitter cold will dive southward from the Northern Plains and also states like Minnesota. We could once again wind up only getting a glancing blow, and from the southwest (not northwest). At least that’s how I’m reading the maps. From parts of Texas to Nashville could very well be colder during the cold outbreak than coastal SNE.

      Something similar is occurring in Europe – according to Dutch mets – where Northwestern Europe is getting glancing blows from the cold that is situated to its east. It’s a fairly unusual set-up there, too. Not that Holland gets very cold in winter. But, if Siberian extreme cold – and other parts of Asia, too – is entrenched and persistent, usually the Netherlands gets quite cold. Not this season.

      1. Agreed Joshua, RE: the core of the cold remaining west of New England and similarities to December. SNE will probably be in a somewhat modified air mass, more seasonably cold than bitterly cold. And/or, the duration of any truly bitter cold would be be short. Probably still enough to bring the monthly temperatures closer to normal though. One difference I see is that the cold air over the CONUS should have more staying power than it did in December, with still no signs of a Pacific jet to kick it out. The West (especially Southwest) should remain fairly dry, maybe for the entire rest of the Western wet season.

  18. Ssk I have a feeling you drive expressway south to home. Just in case It is a mess right now due to a tractor trailer overturned.

  20. Hi all! Usual 3PM hour check in. Ironically today is not a “typical” day, in that I departed work 90 minutes early to go to an annual cardiologist appointment that had to be for an earlier time this go-round. But it ran quickly and smoothly, including a great report (including the EKG), so I got back about the time I would on a “normal” day. 🙂

    Not much to add what is written in today’s discussion. Still have some disturbance chances to sort out going forward, and that colder air I mentioned is indeed in the same idea as others have mentioned. Something else to keep an eye on in a winter that has lacked any serious cold in our part of the world. Always a shock to the system even if it’s just a “cold blast” and not a “wicked cold blast” when you’re just not used to it. 🙂

    One thing though, which I mentioned to the person running my EKG. We get real cold or important snow now, heading into February in just days, and we’re entering the stage of the winter where the ever-increasing sun angle starts to mitigate some of the impacts of the aforementioned winter weather.

    Have a great rest-of-your-day!

    1. Well, we haven’t passed any point in February because it’s still January. 😉 The “mid point” of winter is February 3. To me, “mid-winter” is from one month beyond the solstice to one month before the equinox.

      There is a saying “Half the wood and half the hay you should have on Candlemas Day”. That day, February 2, is basically the Christian “festival of light” or the half way point between the shortest day and the beginning of spring (even though technically, the half way point is not on that date), but generally “groundhog day” is the half way point, or close enough to it, that we also have the silly little tradition of letting “a large squirrel predict the weather” (quote from Bill Murray’s character in “Groundhog Day”). 🙂

      You can read about Candlemas on Wiki and how that event is celebrated in different ways around the world. Pretty fascinating stuff if you like that kind of thing!

      1. Mac spoke of celebrating Candlemas as a child when they lived in Sweden. His parents celebrated in later years when they lived in Etienne. We did not celebrate but instead focused on Saint Lucia on Dec 13 the longest night. I think I will plan to celebrate Candlemas this year. Thank you TK for the reminder and for a new tradition.

        1. 🙂

          While I do not value the almanacs for their forecasts (beyond entertainment purposes), I have always loved these publications, especially TOFA, for teaching me a lot about such observances and celebrations. 🙂

          1. Candlemas is also a religious service. I know dec 13 was solstice according to the old calendar and wonder if the feb 2 changes by the new calendar. But it isn’t particularly religious. Although Candlemas may have to do more with the actual time relating to another religious date since it marks the day Jesus was presented at the temple. Someone else here may know more.

            Me? I love the tradition and also the food. Crepes and pancakes are often used. I cannot recall why but think it may have to do with the shape of the sun. Either way my kids brought be maple syrup from their trip to Stowe so now I know when I will use it

            1. That’s intriguing. I would not be surprise if pancakes represented the sun. That’s actually something I’d do. 😉

  24. Bit of a trend on the NAM last few runs to weaken the late Sunday / early Monday system a little bit. Will keep an eye on that. Not a major impact on the larger picture, just a bit of a potential adjustment on the sensible weather forecast for that period of time. For now, no changes though.

    1. Text of Eric’s tweet

      This January has been remarkably mild

      Boston has had zero days with highs at or below freezing

      Also zero nights in the 10s

      Worcester has now gone a MONTH straight without a colder than average day. Will be the longest streak of warmer than average days on record. #wbz

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