Saturday January 28 2023 Forecast (7:56AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

After a mostly sunny day on Friday, one of the very few we’ve had this month, we’ll have to endure more cloudiness this weekend, but it won’t be a bad weekend by mid-winter standards, with mainly dry weather and a lack of serious cold weather. One weak low pressure area moving north of the region today is pulling a frontal boundary through the region with no more than a few flakes of snow scattered about, and this boundary will settle just to the south later today and tonight, to lift back to the north on Sunday as another low center heads through the eastern Great Lakes. This second low center will pass north of our region Sunday night into Monday pulling the boundary back through the region by early Monday, with a secondary cold front to come through at some point later Monday, but again with mainly dry weather and only the minimal chance of a passing shower or snow or rain, depending on location and timing. A small area of high pressure brings fair weather for the final day of January, and then we watch low pressure making a run at New England from the west southwest, bringing the opportunity for snow with colder air in place to start off February. At this point, this system does not look like it will arrive in the form of a strong storm, but rather a weaker wave of low pressure.

TODAY: A brief shower of very light snow or rain possible early in the day. Intervals of clouds and sun with a trend toward more sunshine with time. Highs 37-44. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 25-32. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH and becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Intervals of sun and clouds with a trend toward more cloudiness. Highs 45-52. Wind SE up to 10 MPH early, then SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a passing rain shower in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing rain or snow shower possible in the evening, followed by overnight clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Watching for snow threats early and late period, with a shot of much colder air between as the general pattern set-up features colder high pressure to our north and a frontal boundary residing not too far south of this area.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Colder pattern overall. Watching beginning of period for wintry precipitation threat carrying over from end of the previous period, and an additional disturbance mid to late period with another chance of wintry precipitation.

49 thoughts on “Saturday January 28 2023 Forecast (7:56AM)”

    1. I worked a double shift that day. That storm certainly helped Boston beat Worcester for seasonal snowfall 54.0” – 53.6”. A real squeaker for sure. 🙂

      Look out Worcester, here comes February! 😉

  8. JR says get to it because after this weekend ski snow will be gone

    My brother said all highways in his area headed north were packed yesterday. Wonderful news for the ski areas!

  9. A study in contrast.
    January 2023: Mild, very light snowfall at Boston.
    January 2022: January delivered over 30 inches of snow – well above normal, and a temperature of 2.5 degrees below normal.

    Both in the SAME La Nina episode.

    This is a great example of the variability that can exist even in the same ENSO phase, because so many other indices help determine the weather pattern, sometimes for long stretches of time. 🙂

    1. Yes but I’m not sure it’s going to be that fast. I expect it may be depicted as a little slower in coming runs.

            1. Kind of the idea. It’s really at the moment that the guidance doesn’t really know which energy to focus on. But that’s nothing new.

              1. Interesting to see how it plays out.
                The 12Z GFS actually sends the wave out South of us. 🙂
                Waiting on the Euro.

  13. Thanks TK.

    It’s 33 and the sun is peaking out after some flurries this am here in Jackson NH. We are heading out cross country skiing shortly. Nice deep compacted base of snow on the ground here after the recent series of storms (over a foot I would estimate) but the top of the snow is rock hard after the changeover to freezing rain at the end of the last storm.

    https://i.postimg.cc/QN6QPRqx/803-EB9-FE-005-E-4-A38-BE00-C3-A946-AAD054.jpg

    Not sure what JR is talking about when he says the ski snow will be gone after this weekend. There is plenty on the ground up here and it’s only going to get colder towards next weekend.

    1. I wondered also but at the moment he is somewhere north skiing

      Jackson, NH. I have goosebumps. We had always skies cars more but then we skied Tyrol for years after it was opened. It is one of the ski areas lost during the snow famine. I have a photo of the covered bridge on my wall. And a puzzle I have yet to start.

      Is Jack frost ski shop still there? I know Carroll reed in N Conway is gone.

      Enjoy…. Remember to hold your breath driving through and make three wishes. ❤️

      2. Also fished the Ellis just above Jackson. Some of the best rainbow trout I’ve ever had. Can you tell you brought back very special memories. Thank you

  15. Thanks TK.

    Because of the topography, the “average” temperature out here in Southern California varies quite a bit from place to place. However, for most lower elevation (<2000 ft) locations, the average January high is in the mid 60s to low 70s. So you'd typically expect a number of days well into 70s with the occasional 80+. This January, most of those spots have failed to even reach 70, or have done so only barely, once or twice. And another cooldown is slated for the final few days of the month. Despite the fact that we've dried out after our series of storms, the temperatures have not responded at all. The Pacific ridging is too far west and we're still under the influence of continental troughing. It's one of the more impressive stretches of sustained below normal temperatures that I've experienced, with nearly every day this month below average. Certainly a huge contrast to the Northeast, where I know in some cases most or all of the days in January have been above average.

    1. Indeed. Knowing several people in the West, they have all remarked about the persistent cool to cold weather and/or harsh winter weather with snow (especially mountains of CA and PNW for the latter).

      Thank you for checking in!

  17. Am I reading the Euro right, that has it -9 in Boston at 1pm next Saturday and then back to 30 at the same time Sunday?

    1. Actually it brings Boston to -11 on the 4th but keeps it below zero all day, then brings it to the upper 40s by the 6th. 😉

      Temp forecasts are just about as bad as the snowfall ones at that range. 🙂

      1. 🙂 🙂
        I was just looking at that. Looks to be cold at the very least.
        We shall see.

        Btw, after a barrage of cutters, it now looks like we’re
        in suppression mode? I hope not!

        1. 2m temps are useless anyway beyond a few days. Just last summer we had Mr. GFS predicting 110+ temps several times days in advance. NOPE.

          Absolutely useless outside of day 3 or 4 on both the GFS & ECMWF.

          1. I remember that. I think actual temps were in the 90s somewhere, so perhaps we’ll see single numbers. Sill cold, but NOT below zero. 🙂
            I don’t like below zero cold.

            My perfect Winter day is overnight temps in the teens with Pm temps near 30. 🙂 I am not picky am I?

              1. Boston reported a high temp of 100 on July 24. I believe it was the only official station in the area to report triple digits, with the others in the 95-98 range (Blue Hill, Providence, Hartford). I believe Blue Hill hit 99 the next day, July 25. 🙂

                2. I remember that day not so fondly. It was visiting day at my daughters camp but because they wanted to ensure they didn’t bring in Covid for second session we had to agree that if we took her off campus we would eat outdoors. Also went to a Phish concert in Hartford that night where it was borderline unbearable in the pavilion.

    1. Very sad day. I was in the Netherlands. it was obviously a shock to me, but also my Dutch friends and classmates.

      1. Very sad indeed. Heartbreaking.. i think the world was shocked.

        I was standing in front of the tv. He was in the kitchen, and as it occurred, I had to ask if this was supposed to happen. Christa was a big part of Framingham State and Framingham.

    2. That was a terrible day. I was a graduate student in Santa Barbara working part-time for a company that designed components of the shuttle living spaces. Some of the full-time employees had spent time with the crew.

      I was not involved in that project, but the shock and sadness were overwhelming.

      1. Oh SClarke. I cannot begin to imagine how every employee felt…..even not directly working on the project

  19. Drove my nearly 22 year old car for the last time today. I’m donating it to WBUR. The tow truck is coming on Tuesday.

    The car has served me well for all these years. Always started. Even when it was in the single digits or snowing. But, it began to really show its age in 2022.

    Back in July I took a 130 mile trip on the hottest day of the year. The AC no longer worked. That nearly caused me to have a heat stroke. Then some things just started to literally fall off. I never intended to look like Colombo driving around an old Peugeot 403. So, it’s time to say bye-bye. I’ll be carless for a while. My daughter asked me whether I still want a 1970 Corvette Stingray. Something like this (checks many of my boxes including manual transmission). https://www.iseecars.com/cars-for-sale#id=100574673383

    Yes, I do. But it’s impractical. So I’ll wind up driving a Toyota or Hyundai.

    1. I can imagine itmis sad to say goodbye to an old friend.

      I still wish I had my 1969 Mach I. I don’t miss my GTO or Formula firebird, but my Mach I was my dream car. Thr 1970 vette is classic. But…if you don’t mind advice from a former (very) racer, go for the 67. 😉

      My advice is do it. But then you can’t drive in winter or rain or…..

      Well, maybe ignore my advice.

        1. You are very welcome. And now I don’t drive after dark. But it was fun. Raced at Epping and got my 100 mph patch and might have raced a tiny bit on route 2

    1. The Euro is showing up all over Twitter, so I asked why not the GFS, which is not nearly as dramatic, and then I answered my own question: “Oh yeah, because it’s not as dramatic.” 🙂

      2m temps don’t work very well on these models (either one and others as well) beyond a few days, so while unrealistic in details, it does represent what will be a strong shot of arctic air late next week. 🙂

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