Sunday January 29 2023 Forecast (8:31AM)

98 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Weak low pressure moves northwest and north of our region today into Monday with lots of clouds but only a limited precipitation chance as a warm front / cold front combo goes through, and a secondary cold front approaches and passes by later Monday through early Tuesday. High pressure to the west extends in for fair weather and a colder trend for the final day of January and the first day of February. We’ll need to watch a wave of low pressure to bring clouds and some opportunity for snowfall by Thursday, though the track of this system and its impact here is not certain.

TODAY: Intervals of sun and clouds with a trend toward more cloudiness. Highs 45-52. Wind SE up to 10 MPH early, then SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a passing rain shower in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing rain or snow shower possible in the evening, followed by overnight clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs 23-30. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

A shot of arctic air arriving on February 3, possibly introduced by a snow shower or squall, with the cold peaking early in the weekend of February 4-5 before easing, then an opportunity for snow/mix later in the period as low pressure moves toward the region from the southwest.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Watching for potential wintry precipitation episodes mid to late period with a pattern of near to below normal temperatures.

98 thoughts on “Sunday January 29 2023 Forecast (8:31AM)”

  1. Glad to see chance of snow on Groundhog’s day is in your forecast. I know you’ve been eyeing that period for a while–not seeing it on any of the other local forecasts…hoping you’re on to something and everyone else comes around!

  2. Thanks TK.

    Both Lexie (Ch. 4) and AJ (Ch. 5) as well as WBZ radio AccuWeather this morning mentioned nothing about snow for the midweek period. Just very cold next weekend. I can wait a little longer still.

      1. Would not be the first time for our Mets. But then they may be tired of being faulted for publicly going more than three days out.

    1. When was the last time Boston was -13F

      As mild/warm as it’s been, lake and ponds have zero ice, that’s why this will happen 🙂

        1. If it gets this cold, even for 1 day, I’m going to have the same temper tantrum that LeBron James had in the garden last night.

  7. For the 4 major climate reporting stations, as of Jan 28, they are running between 7.3 to 9.8F above average.

    While the day time temps have a notable positive anomaly, it’s the nighttime temps that are having the biggest impact.

  8. SClarke, thanks for sharing the picture of the Ford Ranger. I drove an old Ranger when I was housesitting in Washington State in 2018. I think it was a 1995 Ford Ranger. Fun to drive. I felt like I was in an ad for a pickup truck – well an old ad – when I went on the mountain roads.

    1. It was fun to drive. We replaced it with a Honda CR-V, a great vehicle. It gets twice the gas mileage of the Ranger, is much safer, more comfortable, seats more people, and so on. But, it’s no where near as much fun to drive as the old manual transmission 4WD Ranger.

  9. Matt Noyes posted the topic of frost quakes on his FB page. Several people had mentioned hearing them.

    One person said he had only experienced them during very cold temps. I mentioned the same thing. Both of our comments were respectful. I checked this am. Both are missing. Either my FB is skipping them for some reason or both of our questions were removed.

      1. I wondered the same. My question is still on his Twitter post so we shall see. Of course, I might be a “tad” biased as I am not in favor of his being chief met on NBC10

          1. While I appreciate and respect M.N.’s knowledge etc. I completely agree regarding Petey B. 🙂 I think NBC & NECN are kind of held as 2 separate entities that way, despite being basically the same. That’s the business side making things messy or fuzzy again. Nothing new there. 😉

            1. Sadly, I agree. I chatted with Pete a while ago ….sorry but a while lately for me can be a year or so or several months. I think this was maybe a year. He feels his job is safe for now. For now is key. It is one of the several reasons I react strongly to criticisms. Who in heavens names wants to live like that…..especially with a job he and the others clearly love.

    1. This is the wave I’m struggling with – timing especially. Yesterday I had Wed, today I edged to Thu. Could be either. Thing about this set-up is it’s like a rope with ripples on it. The come fast and you can’t always tell the amplitude until it’s ready to reach you…….

      1. I love waves in Winter. Sometimes they can even deliver
        unexpected amounts of snow, not that I am saying this one will.

        This one could even pass South of our area. We shall see. 🙂

        1. They most surely can. And these are not always well-depicted by guidance, even shorter range models like NAM. I’m not letting my guard down on this set-up at all, and the pattern in general, starting Wednesday and going for about 2 weeks, maybe 3.

    1. They were some of the best commercials – thanks for sharing that. Another one was when they are in the bar yelling out for the warm temps to win over the cold!

  14. Thanks, TK!

    Thinking back and reviewing the blizzard from one year ago today which produced the second greatest amount of snow in Taunton history, 29.1″ (as confirmed by Andy Nash at NWS/BOX). The Blizzard of 1978 had 38.5″ here in the Silver City.

    For me, last year’s storm will be remembered for Kuchera and “Death Band”, two of the greatest death metal, hard core bands ever assembled!!! 🙂

    But, seriously, folks…

    A lot of the 6.5″ of rain that has fallen in Taunton in recent days ended up in our basement as both sump pumps (primary AND back-up) failed on Friday. After a lot of work, things are under control here.

    Speaking of flooding, Aucklan d NZ and the North Island have had devastating flooding in recent days. There were three deaths.

    Elton John (the “real” Captain Fantastic) was to play his last two concerts ever in Oceania in Auckland this past weekend which had to be cancelled. They will not be rescheduled again. These concerts were rescheduled from January, 2020 when he, in the middle of the concert, had to stop because of walking pneumonia.

    I am going with Philly and Cincy today for a February 12 Super Bowl LVII.

    Have a nice Sunday!

    1. Sad to hear of the loss of life from the flooding. Floods are about as dangerous as you can have from weather-related occurrences. The power of flowing water is just incredible.

      Unfortunate about the concerts. Maybe someday they can indeed be held and E.J. would come out of retirement for a P.S. to his great history of music and touring. Probably wishful thinking.

      That was quite the storm last year. I got yelled at by my next door neighbor for putting snow “in the wrong place” (mind you, this is where he’d asked the snow to be put and I’ve been doing it for decades when doing most of the work while they sit inside – we share a driveway). 😉 To his credit, he did apologize to me the next day. I stayed out there until nearly 4 a.m. clearing a huge snow drift that a snow blower would never have managed. Whatever. I know I’m a good person, so I don’t care. 🙂

      I am rooting for both road teams today. 🙂

    2. Oh no Captain. Glad things are under control. Having had basement flooding before, it is a lot of work and no sleep. I keep a wet dry vac around too in case.

      1. Thanks, North. This is not the first time this has happened.
        I think our street was a very low cranberry bog before they built houses on it in the 1950s.

        I have back-ups to the back-ups and both the primary and back-up pumps failed Friday.

        I am having a company come in during February school break to get us an estimate to fix all of this. I cannot do this again!

        1. Every time it rained after that for some time I thought it would flood every time. It’s good to get it fixed and give you piece of mind.

    3. So sorry to hear your news of flooding both in your home and that has taken lives. So very sad.

      Really difficult for Elton John and fans that concert will not be rescheduled.

      I wasn’t sure which second game to go with today. Since my BIL lives in thr Bay Area, I’ll go with SF. And then for you and I think TK, I’ll go with Cincy

      1. -7 at 7 AM. Looks like -8 would about do it.

        I don’t like it when the models are coming to an agreement on something like this.

  16. Just waiting for the inevitable storm to form on models for superbowl weekend. Seems we always have something hit around that time.

  18. So far I have been under the impression that we’re not expected to get the “core” of the cold. JR especially has been emphasizing that a lot lately during his segments.

    We’re just not used to somewhat below normal cold this winter. Even normal cold has been rare so far.

    1. The core will remain north of here – that part I pretty sure of. The extent of the cold lobe is what is the question. A very slightly stronger ridge at upper levels in the Southeast vs. a weaker one and the cold core is shunted further east and comes less south. The reverse situation could allow more cold to make it into New England. That’s the part to be figured out over the coming days.

      BTW I was just teasing you with my “they must be onto something” comment earlier. 🙂 One can make a reasonable meteorological argument for going dry or going with a chance of snow in the midweek period right now. To be re-evaluated…

  19. IF that cold is realized, let’s hope we see a little ground insulating snow before Friday night and Saturday.

    1. Of course, not having an extensive snow cover in the northeast gives some credence that it should struggle to get as cold as the recent gfs and euro project.

  20. Thanks TK!

    My quick thoughts on the current pattern:

    The Wednesday wave is tricky. I’d be watching it a little more closely from NYC to DC than I would be in SNE. On the whole, I’m not too impressed, the mid-level flow seems too fast to get the amplification you’d need to get steady precip into SNE. Still worth watching though.

    Bitter Arctic shot to start next weekend. Possibly the coldest air in years for the region, dangerously cold. No ifs, ands, buts, or glancing blows on that one. The coldest values will be to the north, but the peak anomalies likely right over SNE. It will be absolutely frigid, and even colder if snow does fall midweek. Vegetation damage and some burst pipes are highly likely. But it’ll be fairly short in duration with major modification as early as Sunday (though that rapid changing contributes to the burst pipes issue). Be prepared.

    2/6-2/14 is the period to watch for a larger winter storm. There will be 2-3 opportunities (don’t be fooled by the dearth of activity on most of the modeling right now). No promises, but if something big is gonna happen, it’ll be then.

    In short, the more wintry pattern for the East is materializing. But I’m growing skeptical it’ll have much extended staying power. Beyond mid-February looks warmer to me, as the Southeast ridge starts to become too strong for much cold/snow risks. The next 2 weeks will be pretty make-or-break I think in terms of how we ultimately view this winter. By the time the larger scale pattern were to turn more favorable again (likely March), you start to fight climatology.

    For football, I’m expecting wins for Philly and KC today, but will be rooting for neither 😉

    1. Well it’s nice to see we basically agree on all of it. I’ll be curious to see how deep that cold ends up being. We’ve seen some pretty seriously cold air modeled in the past to only have it at the last minute say “nah, not as bad, I was just kidding”. But this does look about as serious to me (so far) as the 2-14-2016 one-day arctic blast.

      1. Yep, I could’ve just said long story short I pretty much agree with everything you wrote 😉

        And agreed about modeling of past cold shots. We do at times see a bias towards deepening these troughs too much in the 4-6 day range only to have that cold retreat somewhat. But I’m fairly confident this will be a hard hitter.

        1. So now just to work out that wave (or non-wave) at midweek. I do agree more of a watcher for south of here but something keeps telling me not to write it off……. 🙂

    2. Todd Gross used to always mention 2/6 – 2/12 as prime timeframe for February snows. Is he still amongst the living?

      As for football, I would like to see a rematch of SF vs. Cincinnati for the Super Bowl. Tough to expect two road teams to win a Championship Game though. 🙂

      Time for Boston (Logan) to make its move vs. Worcester as well. 😉

      1. The last reliable info I have on Mr. Gross is that he was providing mainly snowfall forecasts for snow removal clients as well as moving into the world of some kind of online advertising. He has 2 Facebook pages which lend some insight into this (especially one of them) but it also has some suspect looks to it as well, like he’s not completely in control of it. I have neither heard nor seen him on air, or heard of him being there in any capacity, for quite a while now.

        1. He did not go happily from whdh. Sad because while we worked with him….two of us very closely,,,,for the weather spotter network and group organization and get togethers around it as well as the website, he was brutal to Pete and to us for keeping the spotters network going. I suspect whdh may have finally disbanded it because of his antics. Pete and I kept trying to reason with him. Pete finally gave up and soon thereafter I did as well.

          1. Sad. I remember talking with him briefly at one of the conferences and mentioned an interest in that network myself, then I never heard much more about it and at some point after that he was gone (which is when all that you mentioned was taking place). Unfortunate that it turned out the way it did. 🙁 You tried…

            1. Hahahahaha. Pete said the same thing about me trying.

              It really is sad. He had the other person and me plus Mac who drove us as guests at the studio. It was fascinating.

  21. I don’t care who wins today as long as KC looses, as I am not really a KC fan . I hope snow lovers get some snow during that anticipated time frame but the way this winter is going who knows .

    2. HEATWAVE! Break out the flip flops, sunscreen, blankets, chairs, and umbrellas and let’s head for a Saturday beach day! 😉

      Actually I do plan on being at the ocean next Saturday morning – for arctic sea smoke. 🙂

  23. Dave:

    I saw your comments about you wanting a snow day(s)!

    My seniors (12th graders) are lamenting no snow days through Friday. 12th graders don’t make up snow days as they graduate before the last day of school.

    This senior (citizen) (my kiddos call me “Old School”) wants no snow days. I was telling my students that I have a beach chair already reserved on Onset Beach for 8 am on June 20, the first day of our summer vacation! 🙂

    However, the last time I teased my seniors about no snow days was the end of the semester, 2015. I was punished with 56.6″ of snow in that February. 🙂

    1. I remember feeling “cheated” out of snow days during the snow drought years from 6th grade onward through college years (haha!), and even watched that “snow drought” continue for a few winters after I graduated from college.

      1978-1979: No big snowstorms. We had plenty of cold, but every time a low would come it seemed to pass west of here, a one-day warm-up with rain, only to go right back to freezing cold after.

      1979-1980: Nothing. It was fairly cold at times, but it just wouldn’t snow.

      1980-1981: We had the cold, but it was so dry.

      1981-1982: This winter would be considered so-so after the last snowy 30 year period, but after the 3 previous winters, we thought it was “ok” because at least we had a couple snowfalls that were enough to cancel school. This was the winter that was book-ended by the surprise major snowstorm of December 5-6, and ended with the April 6 1982 powder blizzard.

      1982-1983: Another “ok” winter. We did manage a biggish snowstorm on February 13. My friend/colleague and I call this “the high splitter”. It was a Friday night / Saturday storm that was supposed to slide out to sea with blocking high pressure, and instead came right to the north and split the high in two, dumping a quick foot of snow on us before departing.

      1983-1984: For the most part this was a “nothing-to-write-home-about” winter until March 29 when we had a low pressure bomb go by with a foot of heavy snow in about 8 hours, including thundersnow with cloud-to-ground strikes. Ironically, we did not get a snow day, even though this event was on a Thursday and the first flakes (mixed with rain) occurred before 8 a.m. … the day was wild, we did not get out early – at that point it was pointless. I am sure the commute was a nightmare but I didn’t notice because I lived 5 minutes walking distance from school. This was the storm I remember exiting the school by the eastern-most side door into a parking lot that I could hardly walk across due to wind, screaming out of the east. I was able to lean into the wind at about 30-35 degrees tilt and be held up by the wind, with the help of a bulky jacket and the fact that I barely weighed 100 pounds as a high school junior.

      1984-1985: This winter was a big nothingburger.

      1985-1986: We had a few minor winter weather events, an inch or two of snow, mix, icing, rain, otherwise my first year of college in which I was pumped to be in a weather lab with real maps turned out to be a yawner. No major storms – well below normal snowfall.

      1986-1987: While this winter had more threats than the previous one, it was still very sub-par by New England standards. Most of them storms were minor to moderate and many of them featured change-overs or mixes of one kind of another. Two storms that were notable for good snow and nasty commutes were January 2 & January 22. Not blockbusters, but significant, and helped us have a better snow total than the winter before it. Still, no “snow days” for college.

      1987-1988: Another “ok” winter in comparison to the overall ongoing snow drought. We had a few storms that resulted in issues and snow you had to plow or shovel, but this winter also featured the infamous “almost blizzard of 1988” in which the set-up, according to all indicators, was perfect for a SNE blockbuster to be measured in feet, right up through the night before the storm. It was one of the first times I recall a lot of schools cancelling the night before in advance of a storm. Result: A blockbuster powder snowstorm with big drifts over Cape Cod, a few inches on the South Shore, and an inch or two tops in the Boston area. Huge disappointment given the anticipation on this one, and the TV snow maps showing amounts in feet rather than inches at 11PM, just hours before the first flakes were due. Ouch…There were actually 2 “Cape Blizzards” that winter that spared the Boston area.

      1988-1989: Winter took a year off here.

      1989-1990: Snow? What snow? Another disappointing year for snow lovers. The biggest thing of note for this particular winter was the coldest December on record followed by the warmest January on record. The biggest turn-around from negative to positive temp anomalies that I have witnessed.

      1991-1992: The snow drought drags on, but was nearing its end. This particular winter was a snoozer, however.

      1992-1993 winter onward: It all seemed to start with the December 1992 heavy rain to heavy snow event, followed by the March 1993 super storm in a heavy snow winter 1992-1993. The frequency of heavier snow winters and occurrence of large snow events, stayed greater for a good part of the next 2 decades.

      1. March 29, 1984. I remember it well with a 16 day old and no power for several days. I was the only neighbor not upset. The Halloween storm reminded me of that one. All you could hear in both was the loud crack of limbs.

        We had a foot as well in March 13 of that year.

        This was the period where the ski areas started to struggle. Then came the warm up and cool downs in later years that melted the snow. Sure was a good reason to step up improving snowing making equipment

        My brother was telling me that sunapee gets its water for making snow from lake sunapee….and when it melts it goes back into the lake

        For 1978, there was a huge storm on December 9, complete with thunder snow ❤️

      2. The December 1992 storm was the first storm in my school experience that schools were cancelled more than a single day. Many towns cancelled three days from the getgo

      3. Loved the year-by-year breakdown TK. It’s great for perspective.

        I’ll never get over how lucky I was to grow up in SNE when I did. The winters were just incredible for a kid like me who loved snow and snow days. Sure, there were a couple duds, but not many. Plenty of other interesting weather events too. The exceptionally active period of tropical activity in the 2000s was another big influence for me. Heck, even TWC was still good for most of my childhood, so I benefited from that as well 🙂

        1. The TWC was a go to back in the day . Growing up in Marshfield the winters were totally different in the 80s I remember snow storms & frozen ponds .

  24. I’m a principal at an independent school—we don’t make them up. The whole making them up is insanity—anyone who has ever taught knows that the way students are mentally in early February has no correlation to how they are in mid to late June.

    1. And wow do we agree on that. The last week-ish of school even without makeup is in many cases… NOT all…is not based on learning as much as it is unwinding (best word I could come up with)

      I also believe the number of required hours is way too high as well as standardized testing and several other things the worlds best school systems do not have. But that is a topic for another time.

  26. I’d like to finally put to rest something that gets repeated around here:

    Concord, NH, January 1-28, 2023
    Mean Temp: 31.4, 9.1 degrees above normal (3rd warmest on record (records back to 1868)
    Snowfall: 28.0″, 10.9″ above normal (Tied for 20th most on record)

    TK – glad you mentioned Valentine’s 2016. My coworker and I were discussing how it was somewhat similar this winter has been to that winter thus far. That winter had temperatures that were well above normal, below normal snowfall, and only 1 really cold day, the one you mentioned. Precipitation was above normal as well. The big difference? That winter was a very strong El Nino. Make of that what you will.

    1. Definitely can get above normal snow in mild winters. I would say it’s probably a little bit more likely the further inland you are but we know that it could happen in coastal locations as well.

      I will never forget that frigid day. I’ve been around for five decades and change and that is the only time I have been able to throw water into the air to make snow. HAHA! We had a couple days cold enough to do that when I was younger but I didn’t know about that yet……………

      1. No, but I’ve read plenty of times on here that above normal temperatures = little to to snow, which is the point I was making.

        1. Ohhhh. I didn’t consider that since TK has made been very clear about above average temps not meaning below average snow.

          Do you have a link. And is this a 30 year average or all time. Thank you

    3. Do you have a link. I’d love to share it with my brother. Also is the average for all time or 30 years?

  27. I’m not a fan of either of these teams. I do think W-42 should sit out the superbowl.

    One of the refs had some nasty cuts on face and arms. While I agree with Williams being tossed, I cannot fault him. Two eagles yanking in an opponents face mask and refusing to let go for the refs is inexcusable.

  28. The talk of cold temperatures made me recall that when I was a youngster living near Albany, NY it was once -28F. I looked it up to be sure that my memory was correct and it was on January 19, 1971.

    This was a Tuesday and I was riding the bus to school at that time. I don’t remember that we ever had school canceled for cold, but I also don’t remember standing out there waiting for the bus. I will probably never know for sure.

    I later made the situation even worse by going to college in Potsdam, NY – motto: “Where Winter spends its Spring.”

  29. 2022 ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) for the tropical systems was calculated as the lowest since 1990 and second lowest since 1980.

    The 2022 tropical cyclone year was the second quietest in the satellite era.

    Back to my in-house projects. Definitely an entertaining football game going on…

  31. That was the worst officiating I have ever seen in an NFL game. I can understand Bengals’ fans being upset. I’m a neutral observer. I don’t care who wins. But, the officials appeared hell-bent on sending KC to the Superbowl.

    I am NOT saying it was rigged. But, watching that 4th quarter the word “rigged” did come up in conversation between me and my son. And not just once.

  32. BRR!! Lovely summer vacation spot! 😉

    Record #cold in Antarctica on January 29.

    With a Tmin of -48.7°C, the Russian station of Vostok (3,420 m) broke its monthly record!
    The previous monthly record was -48.5°C on January 30, 1989.

    Also -48.0°C at Dome Fuji & -45.8°C at Ago 4.

      1. And in the weird winter that we’ve been having in SNE, we could – I emphasize the word “could” – have some record lows broken on Friday night.

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