Monday January 30 2023 Forecast (7:33AM)

46 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

We’re in the midst of having a trough swing through with a couple of frontal boundaries. One has gone by with little fanfare, only lots of clouds and a few sprinkles of rain yesterday. The second one has a little more punch to it and brings some rain and snow showers, but not until this evening and tonight, so we get a daylight that is precipitation-free today. With the front coming by tonight and moving away from the region Tuesday, we get another dry day and slightly colder to end the month of January. Canadian high pressure brings seasonably cold weather for midweek. I’ve been trying to figure out if a wave or two of low pressure should impact the region with any snow during this time, and the strongest indications are now that this activity will remain mostly to our south, with just the chance of the northern edge of a snow shield scraping the South Coast in the early hours of Wednesday. Meanwhile, an extension of a wobbly Polar Vortex will be moving its way south southeastward across Canada and is destined to catch our area for a brief time starting Friday. However, even a brief visit by this feature can result in some extreme cold, and that will arrive with the passage of an arctic front on Friday, during the day, which may be accompanied by some snow showers and squalls, but will certainly be followed by a stinging wind and a plunging temperature.

TODAY: A sun/cloud mix. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Rain to mix to snow showers arrive north and west late evening and progress southeastward during the overnight hours, with a potential quick coating of snow and temporarily slippery surfaces. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW overnight.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. A pre-dawn to sunrise period of snow possible South Coast with a very minor accumulation potential. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with a passing snow shower/squall possible morning, then sunny. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through the 20s and 10s to below 10 by evening. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill falling below zero during the afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

A brief shot of extreme cold to start the weekend with February 4 seeing low temperatures that should range from -15 to -10 in interior southern NH and north central MA to -10 to -5 from the NH Seacoast through the interior portions of eastern MA to -5 to 0 in the I-95 belt from northeastern MA to northern RI, and 0-5 along the South Coast with a slow recovery of temperature back to 10-18 by the end of the day, along with dangerously cold wind chills especially the first half of the day before easing up later. As is typically the case, these episodes of extreme cold tend to be short-lived and we’ll see a temperature moderation continuing on the night of February 4 through the day February 5 when a disturbance and return of milder air may bring some snow/mix showers to the region for a time. Another frontal boundary brings back slightly colder air for early to mid next week and at that time we may need to watch for a wave of low pressure potentially threatening the region with some wintry precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Watching for potential wintry precipitation episodes mid to late period with variable temperatures.

46 thoughts on “Monday January 30 2023 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Thanks, in your medium range outlook for throwing out your early idea of temps on day 6 (Saturday).

  4. Thanks TK.

    According to Matt Noyes (NBC-10) the first 10 days of February are usually the stormiest but now with climate change there may be a delay until late February into early March.

    Interesting…

    1. Well he just rose a bit in my mind. I know Barry and several others have said the seasons are shifting.

      Actually, there were just two Mets…both on same network….who did not mention climate change when I asked about the Logan sensors. Interestingly, they were also the only two who were not quite as polite in responding.

    2. I’m biased because my folks had a house in Eastham for a while. So, I think that area …………. Eastham-Orleans-Wellfleet-Truro is the best spot on the Cape.

      1. I grew in appreciation for the Dennisport area as my mother and father-in-law had a cottage there for a while.

        But, the National Seashore Beaches with the tall cliffs on the ocean side and the bayside beaches with the huge tidal changes and warm water in summer, nothing beats it in that Eastham area.

  12. If somehow we ended up with a snowcover between now and Saturday, you can knock the Saturday lows down another degree or two.

  15. Models appear to be backing off on the intensity of the cold
    just a bit. Still plenty cold, just not quite as severe.

    1. Just adjusting. The 2m temp forecasts are very unreliable beyond a few days across all guidance, especially for the more extreme ends (both cold and heat).

    2. It’s only going to get mild again next week anyway. We’re going to start running out of months for snow soon. 🙁

      On to March?!?

  16. Through January 29, Boston’s average temperature of 37.9 sits tied for 4th mildest with January 1933. It will likely finish 4th or 5th mildest with 1933 taking the other spot.

    The top 3:

    #3 2020: 38.0
    #2 1932: 38.8
    #1 1913: 39.3

    1. I wonder how Jan came in worldwide. I saw something somewhere in my searches last night about a year around 193(2) ish being quite warm. I will look in my history when I take another break from tax prep….I take them frequently 🙄

      I found this last night prompted by something Eric tweeted. Interesting that there was a slight dip in greenhouse gases in 2020 at the start of Covid. I often wonder how much proof we need. These records appear to be actual records and not based on 30 years. Yours do too.

      https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-says-2022-fifth-warmest-year-on-record-warming-trend-continues

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