Wednesday February 1 2023 Forecast (7:41AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

We open the month of February with a wave of low pressure to the south having been close enough for another very minor South Coast snowfall, even extending up to parts of the South Shore of MA. That moves out quickly and we see dry and seasonably chilly weather across our region for the balance of today as well as through Thursday too, as high pressure becomes the main driver of the midweek weather here. Look out though! Here comes a short-lived, sharp blast of arctic air – the coldest we will see since a similar occurrence on February 14 of 2016. The cold front will go through around dawn on Friday, give or take an hour or two either side, from northwest to southeast, and may be accompanied by a brief snow shower or snow squall, especially in southern NH and northern MA as any of that activity will be tending to dry up as it heads southward. Then it’s Montreal Express time as we watch the temperature plunge and the wind blow, putting us into the deep freeze for the balance of Friday, through the night, and well into the day on Saturday, with conditions starting to ease up as we move through the day Saturday – less wind with time and a very slow temperature recover. When you have a deep arctic shot timed this way, the temperatures the following night don’t tend to fall again, but stay fairly steady or even rise, and that’s what I expect Saturday night. Heading into Sunday, a significant recovery continues and takes the region back above freezing for high temperatures. Earlier thoughts of some unsettled weather with the return of the mild air have been abandoned in favor of dry conditions with just some varying amounts of cloudiness.

TODAY: Clouds early with any snow ending across southeastern areas. Mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with a passing snow shower/squall possible early, then sunny. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through the 20s and 10s to below 10 by evening. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill falling below zero during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -15 to -10 in interior southern NH and north central MA to -10 to -5 from the NH Seacoast through the interior portions of eastern MA to -5 to 0 in the I-95 belt from northeastern MA to northern RI, and 0-5 along the South Coast. Wind NNW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -20 to -40 at times.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Late-day highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty, diminishing later in the day. Wind chill as low as -25 to -35 in the morning, easing slowly as the day goes on.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady 8-15 evening then may rise slightly overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, SW up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

We’ll be near a frontal boundary with at least a fair amount of clouds at times and possible precipitation a couple times during the first few days of the period. Fair/dry/seasonably chilly weather returns later in the period, based on current timing and expected pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Watching for two potential impacts by low pressure with possible wintry precipitation involved heading into mid month.

64 thoughts on “Wednesday February 1 2023 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  4. Tk , wankum thinks after this cold the 8-14 day outlook looks warm , he even through it out there he thinks February could be as warm as January was , thoughts .

    1. He should have retired right after his last SB win with Tampa. It would have saved his marriage. Oh well.

      1. I saw that he is retiring. SSK he is indeed among the very greats. We were blessed to have him on New England

        As far as his personal life and to be fair, we just don’t know why the couple split.

        1. No we don’t, but I think it is fair to say that his retirement and then un-retirement played into it somewhere along the line.

    1. Thanks for posting that , I like mike but I was surprised he said on 1/31 he thinks February could go like January did , what was it the warmest January???

  12. Thanks TK !

    The previous snowfalls were winning me over, but ….. it snowed at 23F this morning, which created some ice, yet people were driving like it was just slush. Lots of accidents down this way.

    So, I’ll be rooting for warm times after this arctic blast. I don’t need to be on the road with all the many folks who can’t slow down in snowy conditions.

  13. Thank you, TK.

    Not liking the outlook this month. I think an early arrival of spring-like weather may very well be in the offing. Doesn’t mean all will be calm and mild from mid February on, but this weird mostly non-winter will likely return in earnest soon and remain so for the duration. I don’t see any snow (real snow, that is) on the horizon. Just lots of days in the 40s and meh.

  15. Thanks TK.

    Somewhat subtle, but it would appear to me the longer range (8-15 day) guidance is gradually coming on board to our cooler, more wintry ideas. Not sustained deep cold, that won’t happen. But cooler, and potentially active as well. I really haven’t seen any reason to change my tune on that, though it’s taking longer than I thought to get there – a very gradual shift out of the deeply entrenched “pattern stability” that TK discussed yesterday. What I’m more so wondering now is whether a cooler, more wintry pattern could have more staying power than I expected as some of the traditional teleconnections potentially turn more favorable heading deeper into February and beyond. In other words, is it possible that we may end up back in a hard-to-change pattern, but one more favorable for cold/snow in the Northeast? We’ll see…

    1. Thanks, I think ….. 🙂

      March and April will be colder than January. Its either the new norm or a cycle were in.

  16. The overall March average temp at Logan (both highs and lows factored in) is 38.3F

    With January being nearly 8F above average, the month just ended averaged 37.9F.

    So, all March has to do is average 0.5F below average and January’s temps will be warmer than March.

    1. The best chance for that to happen is winter to spring combined with La Niña to neutral, exactly what we have this time. 🙂

  17. This is interesting to read in light of the current season:
    “Is not January the hardest month to get through? When you have weathered that, you get into the gulfstream of winter, nearer the shores of spring.”
    — Henry David Thoreau, February 2, 1854

    1. He wrote that after a harsh January that particular year. 🙂

      Not sure if there were any groundhogs available for consultation. 😉

  18. Something important to point out…

    Friday afternoon and evening is going to have a larger overall impact in terms of cold than Saturday will. This is why…

    Cold front passes Friday morning.
    Most significant temp fall combined with some of the strongest wind gusts will be Friday afternoon and evening, when any schools in session and work commutes will be in progress.

    Coldest air and lowest wind chills take place Friday night and very early Saturday, when the vast majority of people will not be out and about.

    While still very cold, recovery back to the lower teens with gradually diminishing wind with fewer people having to be out during Saturday afternoon as opposed to Friday afternoon will have a limited impact.

    Media should bring this up, especially regarding tomorrow. A lot have been focused on just the coldest temperatures on Saturday morning. There’s more to it than that.

  20. I realize this is going out a bit in time but I wondered if you had a early forecast for Plymouth, New Hampshire on February 10-11. I was invited up for a few days and wanted to check the forecast. Thanks.

  24. Friend of mine in Montreal said it was -20C there this morning. He sent a picture of snow in his yard. Montreal has had a real winter. When does it not? I think that -10F or colder is very much a possibility in Montreal Friday night, especially with the snow cover.

    I do not think Boston dips below 5F. In fact, I predict the temperature in the city will bottom out at 7F, and within 30 hours after that will be well above freezing. Note, JP/Roslindale could very well be colder. Usually are.

    1. Very interesting. Maybe we should have a mini contest on how low the temps will drop in a few of the cities. Im not sure what I’d guess, but your number of 7 seems reasonable

    2. The cold has been around. It just hasn’t been able to get into the eastern US other than a couple glancing shots. Northern New England is doing OK and Canada, though not having the harshest of winters in the east certainly, is having winter none the less.

      The western US is having as rough a winter as we are having an easy one. Awaiting the cloud cover data but I suspect we easily set a record for cloudiest January and a lot of overcast nights held those low temps well above what we’d have seen with another 8 or 10 clear nights. Makes a big difference, especially since we did not have a lot of wind. We lost out on a lot of radiational cooling episodes. You can thank the relentless Pacific flow and stronger than normal Aleutian low for that.

      I suspect Montreal’s low temp will be around -18F.
      My forecast for Logan’s low is -3F.

              1. Hahaha. We think alike. I was found to say -3 for Boston. But am happy with -2

                -7 stands for Worcester.

                Concord NH -11. Providence -3. Hartford 0

                I’ll record all guesses tomorrow

                1. Any and all of those could be right on, or at least within a couple. We will see. Like to do a fun little contest for this. 🙂

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