Thursday February 2 2023 Forecast (7:35AM)

115 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

A fair and seasonably chilly day today before we experience a short-lived but strong blast of arctic air, to last about 30 hours. Not much has changed regarding the timing, duration, and expected intensity of the cold / wind. We’re looking at an early-morning cold frontal passage on Friday, maybe a passing snow shower with the front, a temperature fall all day, increasingly dangerous wind chill values, the core of the cold going through Friday night and very early Saturday, then a slow temperature recovery and diminishing of wind later Saturday through Saturday night, and a return to near or even slightly above normal temperatures with more cloudiness on Sunday. A fairly quiet and milder stretch will be ours for the early part of next week. And if you’re wondering what is prognosticated beyond this 5-day period, I have news for you. Just moments ago (as of the time I’m writing), the world’s most famous groundhog, Punxatawney Phil, emerged from his winter’s nap to see a shadow and declare that we have 6 more weeks of winter – that is assuming that winter actually starts any time soon around here. 😉 Well, I guess our reminder is coming in a hard-hitting way in 24 hours, so there you go. It just isn’t going to hang around as our overall very mild winter goes on. If you want to know what’s going on around here beyond this 5-day period, read on after you get through the detailed forecast just below…and Happy Grounhog Day… ……again………. 😉

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with a passing snow shower/squall possible early, then sunny. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through the 20s and 10s to below 10 by evening. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill falling below zero during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -15 to -10 in interior southern NH and north central MA to -10 to -5 from the NH Seacoast through the interior portions of eastern MA to -5 to 0 in the I-95 belt from northeastern MA to northern RI, and 0-5 along the South Coast. Wind NNW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -20 to -40 at times.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Late-day highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty, diminishing later in the day. Wind chill as low as -25 to -35 in the morning, easing slowly as the day goes on.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady 8-15 evening then may rise slightly overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, SW up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

We’ll be near a frontal boundary with at least a fair amount of clouds at times and possible precipitation a couple times during the first couple days of the period. Fair/dry/seasonably chilly weather returns mid period, and may have to watch for the next storm threat by the end of the period, which may bring a potential variety of precipitation or even something frozen.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Watching for two potential impacts by low pressure with possible wintry precipitation during mid February.

115 thoughts on “Thursday February 2 2023 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  3. Thanks TK.

    Just for everyone’s information, Punx Phil has recently been inducted into the Meteorologist Hall of Fame. After forecasting since 1887 it’s long overdue wouldn’t you say? 😉

    Accuracy rate = 39%

    1. “This is one time where television really fails to capture the true excitement of a large squirrel predicting the weather.”

      – “Phil Connors” aka Bill Murray

      🙂

  5. Peaking at the 12z runs, looking a bit colder.

    For instance, yesterday’s 12z NAM = 3F at 8am Sat, whereas, today’s 12z NAM = -1F at the same time.

  8. TK’s Absolutely Useless Stat of the Day..

    Boston has had 2 days of below normal temperatures so far in 2023. The both have been a Wednesday with only 1’s in the day number: Wednesday January 11, Wednesday February 1.

    You’re welcome. 🙂

      1. Put heat pump trips from electric to propane under 30 deg. I checked our propane this am to be sure we have enough

  12. It’s too bad that the HHH in the summer doesn’t quickly pass through in-and-out like the upcoming arctic blast will.

  14. Thank you, TK.

    I concur with Philip. In summer, stretches of heat and humidity tend to be longer – often much longer – than polar or Arctic blasts.

    But, I am not complaining today. It’s still too `warm’ for my liking, but at least I got my morning run in without excessive sweating. Yesterday was similar. And seeing the sun was great. January, on the other hand, was not easy. Not much sun and lots of sweat.

    1. Reason…

      Summer features move more slowly, and high pressure ridging in the warm season is more static than transitional.

      Winter, you have a much stronger and often more progressive flow, and troughs in general tend to be more transitional than their opposites.

      🙂

    1. My midwinter walk at the halfway point between the solstice and equinox is Friday and I’m going right ahead with it. I’ll be triple to quad layered and it will be about a 1 hour walk in the Middlesex Fells Reservation. 🙂

        1. Nothing wrong with that! Just protect yourself. 🙂

          Nate & I will be very cautions. Immediately after I get out of work, bundle up, go, we can do the short path which is about 1 hour, keep moving, have charged phones with us when we go, and the path comes right out to where I park. We’ll be done about 1 hour before sunset. 🙂

  20. 12z models today continue to show an overall mild pattern and several cutters through February 18. Not looking great. A few runs here and there have toyed with the idea of a colder look but nothing sustained and we seem to be continuing to just kick the can down the road.

  22. I have been busy and I hopefully there will be one winter storm to track this winter. The only things that have been tracked so far this winter are brief cold snaps the one at Christmas and the one coming Friday into Saturday morning.

  24. TK, thank you for your explanation of the shorter duration of polar or Arctic blasts compared to heat and humidity incursions.

    JJ, great to see you on the blog again.

    The latest very experimental model called the BRRR says Boston will reach zero on the Kelvin scale; this is -273.15C.

    2. You’re welcome. It’s similar to the fact that it’s actually “normal” to have more days above normal than we have days below normal. Cold shots tend to be sharper and of shorter duration, while there are more days slightly warmer than normal than anything else. It’s how we arrive at our averages here in this part of the world (and many places in the mid latitudes). 🙂

  28. Boston schools closed Friday as they should. Too many walk or wait outside for buses. I do remember schools closing for cold back when my kids were quite young.

  29. The one time I remember school closed due to cold was when I was in high school that was because the buses wouldn’t start

    1. My son your age was in middle school. I think there was a second time. I’ll be curious to see how towns handle it. Sutton has very few walkers but kids wait at the bus stop. I think the risky time is after school when kids get right on the bus

      1. Early release may be understandable in smaller towns, if they know they have some long distance walkers.

        The morning pickup will be fine. The afternoon, if theres any issue, its the wind chill.

  30. Wouldnt have to be cancelling schools if the kids nowadays would just wear jackets to school!! My kids refuse to wear them and get in and out of the car shivering. None of their friends wear them either. They dont want to be bothered carrying them around and its apparently too much of an inconvenience to actually use their lockers.

    1. I also get amused seeing kids walking in and out of school in their pajamas.

      Not sure if this is just a Coventry thing or elsewhere also. Perhaps Tom or Captain can comment on that!

    2. My oldest grandson won’t even wear long slacks. But then his dad tends to clear snow in shorts.

      As for jackets…..teee heee…..I rarely wear one

    4. The biggest issue we see and both our kids have been at BPS, is the lack of clothing many kids have. Lack of supervision due to working parents.

      You should see the things my wife sees on a daily basis for the way families cope and survive from food to clothing. What if a bus is already and kids stand out for 20 minutes and get frostbite bc they don’t know what frostbite even is. So many families don’t have gloves, jackets etc things most of us take for granted.

      Now my older son is at a private middle school and now yes all they do it west PJ’s. I mean who doesn’t want to wear PJ’s all day 🙂

    2. That’s probably a little aggressive by the model. NAM temps are a little better, both timing & magnitude.

  34. Interesting, the way this lobe of arctic cold is oriented as it swings thru quickly, it looks like Boston could be colder than Albany.

    IE, being further east puts one deeper into the southernmost extent of the arctic air’s brief push.

      1. especially given what we are used to this winter.

        After I get home tomorrow, my plan is to next go back outside Sunday. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. I remember my parents thinking we didn’t dress properly. And I know their parents thought the same of them. . While some parents may not be present as TK said…kids do what kids want to do. It is just part of growing.

      Me…I walked two miles uphill to school…BOTH ways

  40. This just in: Our own “Ms. G” did not see her shadow, so an early spring is expected around here. 🙂

    Accuracy rate:

    Ms. G – 60%, PP – 39%

  42. 1972-1973 is New York’s least snowiest winter on record with only 2.8 inches. They went 328 days without measurable snowfall until 0.4 fell yesterday.

    1. Don’t see any snow on the horizon for NYC – or Boston, really – and with the groundhog predicting an early spring (Punxsutawney Phil is never wrong …) both cities could break records.

      We’re a long way from that, however. A lot can happen this month and next.

      1. The ground hog forecast has no bearing whatsoever on the eventual outcome. 🙂 There’s no truth to it at all. If he’s “right”, it’s by chance, not science. 😉

        I don’t think either city ends up breaking any snowfall record lows this time. La Nina is on a weakening trend, and when we enter transition, a lot of things can take place to change what has been so far…

          1. There’s no guarantee we don’t either.

            I’m basing my statements on science, not coin flips. 🙂

      1. So, we can ignore my post I just wrote.

        Well, maybe. I’m still unconvinced about our snow prospects.

        What Mark just sent shows a NNE bonanza. I can believe that. Just look at what Quebec City and Jay’s Peak have been getting. I do think that trend may continue. I just believe SNE temperature profiles will be marginal at best and the storm track won’t be favorable for us, but will favor NNE.

  44. TK, thanks

    The last time we were in negative numbers for daily lows was a year ago Tuesday night (January 31) and last night when we were at -8º. Of course, though, we had two feet of snow on the ground.

    Rob Gilman on Marshfield’s WATD referred to Friday’s and Saturday’s air as “pipe-cracking cold!” 😉

    1. I like the phrase “pipe-cracking cold”. Gilman reads here at times and is also a member of a weather page that I am an admin on. Good guy – and lots of experience forecasting in this region!

      I did hear two quotes on TV news tonight (not from meteorologists) that I thought were over the top. The first one was “this is a once in a generation cold front”. No, it’s not. I hate phrases like that to begin with and this certainly does not fit that. The second one was “If you get frostbite, you could die.” Ok, I fully agree that getting frostbite is a bad thing, but it’s not fatal, other than if it’s severe enough to lead to a cardiovascular condition that can progress to something that is fatal. Being out in the extreme cold for too long can be fatal a lot more quickly and likely than the complication due to severe frostbite, so the way that was phrased was not correct. I don’t like when the phrasing is so blatantly incorrect. Journalism could and should do better before this stuff makes the air. Somewhere, QC is suffering, and it’s getting worse. You can hear it all over the news these days, not just with weather stories.

  46. Excerpt from the NWS Gray, ME Afternoon forecast discussion. Pretty fascinating…

    An unusual phenomena for our area is possible tomorrow night,
    with guidance indicating that the tropopause could dip below the
    peak of Mount Washington tomorrow night. While extremely rare,
    the impact of this is that winds are likely to increase during
    the overnight as the the wind becomes more compressed through
    the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Combined with the bitterly
    cold temperatures, wind chill values likely fall to as low as
    -60 across northern areas, and -40 to -45 along the coastline.
    Although unofficial, from the records we have been able to
    gather, the coldest wind chill in Portland since 1948 was -43
    degrees in 1971, so we are nearing wind chills values that most
    have not seen in their lifetime.

    1. Also fascinating. Two great posts back to back. And some very special folks in this one. Dicky is an all time favorite. Thank you, Bill. I don’t recall seeing you post and apologize if my memory has failed me. But sure happy to see you here

  48. I’m getting slightly annoyed with the TV outlet visuals showing only wind chills for tomorrow night. I’ve heard so many people saying wow! Can u believe it’s gonna be -35 outside?!? I’m like uggggh, do better.

    1. I’ve had a few people ask me questions like “are we really having temperatures of -30 to -40 Saturday? … and yes they meant temps, not wind chills. I explained it to all of them. But if I got 3, I can’t even imagine how many others there are. News directors are the reason for this. Drama.

  51. Congrats to Mike Wankum and his daughter & son-in-law.
    6 pound, 8 ounce Aurora Tegan Green arrived, making Mike a grandfather for the 2nd time. 🙂

Comments are closed.