Saturday February 4 2023 Forecast (11:25AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

The worst is over, and now the recovery begins. With a cold blast comparable to the one of Valentine’s Day 2016, some records were set, some obliterated, some places were a bit colder than that outbreak while others were right around the same as that day. In short, it was wicked cold out!!! And it still is, but it’s starting to warm up, slowly for now, but eventually to accelerate. In fact even with a temperature recovering only to the teens above zero by later in the day, with the wind dropping off you’d think it was much milder than it actually is, because at that point it is in a relative sense. As high pressure slips to the east and south of New England and a warm front quietly swings through, we’ll really feel it turn milder on Sunday, back to the 40s, and as our old friend Barry Burbank (WBZ TV) often said, it’ll be “a veritable heatwave!” on Sunday. We get a little bit of a hiccup in the warm up as a weak cold front slides back across the region by early Monday, but back we go to the warmer side of the front on Tuesday as low pressure heads rapidly eastward through southeastern Canada. Its cold front will come through by early Wednesday, cooling it down again but not nearly to the levels we have just endured.

TODAY: Sunny but some clouds may show up by later in the day. Temperatures rising gradually to late day highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later. Wind chills still below -20 at times, easing later.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A brief snow flurry possible central MA and southern NH. Temperatures steady 8-15 evening then rising slowly overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, SW up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early then sun returning. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds come back again. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late-day or evening. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a rain shower possible in the evening. Some clearing overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Unsettled stretch. Milder again then trending colder. Precipitation at times, odds favoring liquid earlier in the period and frozen later in the period. Lots of details to work out in the days ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Another potential winter storm threat looms during this period as well. Temperatures variable – averaging near to above normal.

52 thoughts on “Saturday February 4 2023 Forecast (11:25AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Sending our thoughts for your brother’s recovery and hope you, your mom and your family are ok.

  5. Thank you, TK.

    We all send our prayers for your brother, for his doctors, for you, your mom and your entire family. Big hugs to you and please to your mom❤️

  6. Thanks, TK. Hope your brother is doing better. Quick question: I may be headed to Plymouth, New Hampshire on the 10th for a few days. Do you have thoughts regarding the weather then? Thanks.

    1. Entering a period of vulnerability there for winter storm activity. Can’t pin down the details yet but get prepared for probably having to deal with something frozen…

  7. Thanks Tk . Well we survived the wind last night as that was my biggest concern vs the cold & as you said it feels so much better vs last night when I was out . Tk I hope whatever is going on with your brother will resolve , hang in there buddy .

  8. Thanks TK, and once again, take care of everything going on at home first. Wishing nothing but the best.

    Incredibly impressive cold out there. Not a surprise by any means, this was impeccably forecast, but it’s been so long since the region has seen numbers like this that it makes the jaw drop. I’d definitely rank this above the 2016 event.

    1. As I mentioned late in the previous blog, I can’t recall Boston (Logan) down to negative double digits (-10F) in my lifetime up until this morning.

      Will it snow next weekend or shortly thereafter?

  9. Thanks TK. Our thoughts and prayers for your brother. Hope he can recover soon.

    Winds still look quite busy to me. Nothing like last night of course.

  10. This brief few to several hour hit of -9 to -12F with wind gives me some amazed appreciation for those who live in Siberia, Alaska and the parts of Canada who experience this and colder that can last for several days and/or weeks.

  11. The GFS continues its wild swings.

    It had 3 or 4 consecutive runs for the late medium to long range of colder storminess.

    Now, it’s most recent 00z and 12z runs seem to have switched to milder storminess with a more impressive SE ridge.

  14. Thanks again everyone! Heading to hospital this afternoon for a short visit and check-in with doctors.

  15. Thanks TK. Wishing the best for your brother.

    My son and I are at Killington today. Temp has warmed to -5 at the base and -12 at the summit after a low of -31. The visibility is absolutely spectacular (80-100 miles) and we honestly haven’t been cold. Dressed in many layers, riding the gondola and bubble lift, and skiing mostly in the trees working up some body heat. The snow is extremely dry and chalky after the extreme cold overnight. Haven’t skied snow like this before.

    In the lodge eating lunch and warming up for a bit before we go back out from 2-4. I will post some pictures either later today or tomorrow AM.

  18. What a weird winter. I think THE highlight for us in SNE will turn out to be last night’s bitter cold. But, I think the rest of winter – before and after the 36 hour day polar incursion – will be nothing to write home about. Lots of 40s on tap, and we’ve experienced lots of 40s throughout the winter. It also looks like we’ll have more clouds than sun in the mid range. And some rain. And this is what experienced most of January.

  19. The Chinese `spy’ balloon has been shot down. Notably, the Chinese said it was a balloon gathering meteorological data, but that it had strayed off course. Somehow I don’t believe this, especially because there was another one seen above Latin America.

  20. Well we topped out at 13 here today. I was thinking / hoping for 20 but we fell short on the north shore.

        1. It’s not going down tonight. Haven’t changed anything in the forecast. Temp gradually rises tonight. Warm front is going through right now.

    2. There was no chance of 20, hence the 8-15 by late-day on my forecast above. 🙂

      Temps at 4PM ranged from 8 to 15 across the WHW forecast area, and as of 5PM range from 9 to 16. Slow rise continues.

  22. Temps have recovered by 31 degrees so far atop Mt. Washington. Currently -16F after their low of -47F.

  23. I wonder if anyone knows what causes this ice circle. The water flash froze last night.

    These are photos my daughter took. It is west river in uxbridge. The river runs under a bridge on Hartford rd east. TK that is road west hill dam is on.

    There is a small waterfall just as water gets under bridge and before where the big circle is. Daughter said she could tell the circle had been rotating.

    https://imgur.com/a/dRrf2lG

    1. There’s a small natural circulation in the water there and as the initial ice forms it is moved in the circle and hitting things in such a way that the sides are smoothed down and it retains a circle shape.

        1. Absolutely. It never ceases to amaze. Some of it is not always pretty and it can be really harsh and unforgiving but so much if it is also beautiful.

  24. Mt. Washington is now up to -11, the same temp I was for a low this morning. The observers up there are probably ready to walk around on the deck in shorts. HAHA

  25. Well mike wankum was right when he said the 8-14 day outlook looked warmer after this brief cold shot .

    1. Mid 40s all week 30% chance of some frozen precipitation next Sunday but projected temps in upper 30s

        2. WxW and I were not necessarily talking about the next 5 to 7 days. 😉 And that’s also going by model guidance that is known to have up to 500 miles low track error that far in advance. So can’t really say anything concrete yet about any storm threat next weekend.

      1. Didn’t need all that much. Bro has a dog that needs care so I’m splitting that between myself and other brother.

        BTW if anybody reading this knows anybody who has the ability to foster older animals let me know. Just thinking ahead in terms of not knowing the extent of my brother’s recovery and a time frame on it.

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