Sunday February 5 2023 Forecast (9:02AM)

46 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

For now it’s back to the pattern we’ve been in – generally mild – following our brief but intense arctic blast. Sometimes when the large scale pattern is as stable as it has been this winter, the interruptions are quite temporary and you’ll go back to the longer-term pattern until something else is ready to change it. That’s what we have this winter with the cold West and mild East, which, while not having a lot of cases to go by, seems to be a characterization of a 3rd year La Nina winter – though we won’t know for sure any time soon. Mere scientific speculation at this point. Anyway, what’s coming up? Up and down temps but overall mild. A warm front already went by last night, and a weak cold front comes along this evening while a stronger storm develops well offshore with no impact here. Warm front goes by early Tuesday and cold front comes along later Tuesday to early Wednesday as another low goes by to our north in southern Canada. And another warm front approaches Thursday. This sounds more active than the unsettled weather we’ll see from it all, which will be rather limited during the next 5 days.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early then sun returning. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late-day. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a rain shower possible in the evening. Some clearing overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of light rain. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Unsettled stretch. Milder again then trending colder. Precipitation at times, odds favoring liquid earlier in the period and frozen by mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Another potential winter storm threat looms during this period as well. Temperatures variable – averaging near to above normal.

46 thoughts on “Sunday February 5 2023 Forecast (9:02AM)”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    I hope your brother is doing okay.

    I’ve thrown in the towel on this `winter.’ I did so several weeks ago.

    It’s been weird, to be sure.

    But not fun for winter enthusiasts.

    1. We’re only 2 days beyond the half-way point. But if you toss that towel, you’ll probably be picking it back up again. 🙂

  3. Just over the border, southern Quebec’s second snowiest January since 1942. That’s how close it is JP Dave! 😉

  8. Thanks!
    There still won’t be a lot to know for another day or two but everything is stable which is good news right now.

      1. Keep an eye on Feb 10-12 and 15-17. 🙂 And probably another period of time after that I am not 100% sure of yet… 🙂 🙂

  11. Thanks TK.

    Hopefully no more intense cold outbreaks for the rest of this winter. That was brutal. In spite of my preparation, I still underestimated and didn’t think to put on an extra pair of gloves yesterday. It didn’t take long for my hands to be absolutely numb. My hands are always the first to freeze up. “Cold hands, warm heart?” 😉

    I’ll take just slightly below normal temps, “just” cold enough for a widespread all snow event. 🙂

  12. Because it was forecast, I’m not surprised …..

    But I’m still stunned by this warm-up. It’s insane how different it feels outside.

  13. Thanks TK. Continuing to pray and wish the best for your brother.

    Pretty mild look on the latest longer range models for the East. They’ve been back and forth so many times that it’s hard to know when, if ever, to trust them, but outside of yesterday’s cold blast it’s fair to say winter has been quite reluctant to visit the East so far…

    Much further away, a devastating series of wildfires has been ravaging Chile. Unfortunately the death toll and number of buildings lost are rising. Chile is no stranger to wildfire – it’s very much comparable to the US West. Summer heatwaves, an overpopulated wildland-urban interface, and a combination of careless, and in some cases malicious, human activities causing these fires to start and grow rapidly.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/firefighters-battle-dozens-wildfires-chile-emergency-extended-2023-02-04/

    2. Oh my. Thanks WxW. Mac’s cousins son and family live in Chile. I don’t know where so will give her a call.

  14. Thanks TK. I’m glad to hear that your brother has stabilized and hoping for more good news on the way.

    The models today seem to be back to the same old pattern moving forward. Very frustrating. They are close to something next weekend but beyond that continued mild with more cutters. When in doubt, go with pattern persistence until proven otherwise I guess.

  15. Here are a few pictures I snapped from Killington yesterday as we braved the “life threatening cold”. It actually turned out to be a beautiful day with sunny skies and spectacular views. Wind died down after noon and the temps rose closer to zero by the end of the day. I would not say this even rated in the top 10 coldest days I have ever skied. This is not to diminish how severe things got overnight and first thing in the AM but by the time the lifts opened at 10AM (delayed opening), the conditions had already improved dramatically.

    View of the high peaks of the ADK’s from Snowden Mtn:
    https://imgur.com/NNAjPM7

    View of Killington Peak from Snowden Mtn
    https://imgur.com/vSWhIKl

    Skiing off Killington Peak from the top of the gondola:
    https://imgur.com/H6iZFTJ

    Top of catwalk trail from the summit:
    https://imgur.com/Mf5NhLR

    Skiing in the trees on Snowden Mtn:
    https://imgur.com/zuR4xTG

    It was pure winter up there. Hoping the pattern doesnt get too mild and NNE can pull out more snow in February, even if we cant here in SNE.

      1. Happy to share. The views up there are just spectacular on a sunny, crisp day like it was yesterday.

        It just ended up being my son and me. No one else was hearty enough to join 🙂

    2. Breathtaking. I love love those views. I’d stop for long periods on my runs and just look out…even when quite young. My family tended to just move on and find me in the same place on their next run!

  16. The Denver of the East…..at least for today.

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    1h

    Up to 50F in Boston

    A remarkable 60F turnaround from yesterday morning

  17. Meanwhile, Key West did not drop below 50 today. They have not dropped below 50 since February 20, 2015. That’s 2907 consecutive days at 50 or warmer, setting a new record. The old record of 2906 days was set between January 31, 1940 and January 14, 1948.

  19. Tomorrow is the 45th anniversary of something or other weather-related. It’s on the tip of my tongue…

    2. NWS posted a story on it. My plan was to share that link tomorrow & again Tuesday, but feel free to go scope it out. It’s on their page. 🙂

  21. TK is right. We’re just 2 days after the midway point in winter. But, I am skeptical we’ll get any, which is disappointing. Just a 7-day stretch of normal cold (30-35F during the day and 18-24F at night) would have been nice, with some snow thrown in. It ain’t gonna happen. The persistent pattern shows no sign of letting up, save for an anomalous blob of cold that came and went as fast as a speeding bullet. Alas. As Red Sox fans used to say, we can always wait until next year.

    1. Assuming the guidance is right. Things change quickly. Don’t be surprised if that happens. 🙂

  22. Both GFS & ECMWF starting to indicate a more favorable MJO looming. Not a super strong signal, but the best one I’ve seen in a long, long time.

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